More or Less: Behind the Stats
960 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago - ★★★★★ - 740 ratingsTim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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Episodes
WS MoreOrLess: Foreign Aid: More Harm Than Good?
October 16, 2015 21:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBTim Harford interviews Nobel Prize winning economist professor Angus Deaton about a lifetime measuring inequality
WS MoreOrLess: Are Tall People More Likely to Get Cancer?
October 09, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBAre tall people really more likely to get cancer? Ruth Alexander looks at a new Swedish study that’s caused headlines around the world, and asks how worried tall people like her should be about developing the conditions.
WS MoreOrLess: Football’s Red Card Cliché
October 02, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBManagers and pundits often say “it’s harder to play against ten men”, but is there any truth in it? Also, Tim Harford speaks to the author Siobhan Roberts about Professor John Conway, who has been described as a genius and one of the world’s most charismatic mathematicians. Producers: Keith Moore and Wesley Stephenson
WS MoreOrLess: How Reliable is Psychology Science?
September 28, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBHow reliable is psychology science? The Reproducibility of Psychological Science project reported recently and it made grim reading. Having replicated 100 psychological studies published in three psychology journals only thirty six had significant results compared to 97% first time around. So is there a problem with psychological science and what should be done to fix it. Decimate Tim used the word in an interview last week to mean devastate rather than cut by ten percent – many listeners sa...
Alzheimers, Psychology science, John Conway, Red cards, Decimate
September 25, 2015 16:00 - 28 minutes - 26 MBAlzheimers What's behind the claim that 1 in 3 people born in the UK this year could get Alzheimers? How reliable is the science in psychology? The Reproducibility of Psychological Science project reported recently and it made grim reading. Having replicated 100 psychological studies published in three psychology journals only thirty six had significant results compared to 97% first time around. So is there a problem with psychological science and what should be done to fix it? One of mathem...
WS MoreOrLess: The Rise of the Giants?
September 21, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBThe average rugby pack is much bigger than it was 20 years ago but has the growth finally plateaued? Living Blue Planet Index Populations of marine mammals, birds, fish and reptiles have declined by 49% since 1970, a report says. But what does this actually mean?
Striking Numbers
September 18, 2015 16:00 - 29 minutes - 26.8 MBStriking numbers? Are the unions really on the rise again and holding the country to ransom? The rise of the giants Are rugby players really getting biger and bigger? Living Blue Planet Index Populations of marine mammals, birds, fish and reptiles have declined by 49% since 1970, a report says. But what does this actually mean? Bean counter The Office for National Statistics is much maligned whether it's its data revisions, the fact that some of it statistics have been deemed not fit f...
WS MoreOrLess: How Many is Too Many Bananas?
September 14, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBToo dense Is population density the right measure to be looking at when working out how many refugees countries should take- and if not what is? How many bananas will kill you? There’s a belief among some people that too many bananas will kill you. Eat too many and you will overdose on potassium and die. But how many bananas would you need to eat?
Is it worth targetting non-voters?
September 11, 2015 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBCan you rely on non-voters During the election for the leadership of the Labour Party in the UK Jeremy Corbyn has whipped up unprecedented support among grass roots activists pushing him into a surprising lead. Bernie Sanders the left-wing Democratic candidate has done the same energised grass roots support in the United States in a similar way. Their supporters believe in both cases they can shake up the political mainstream and convince non-voters to turn out at the ballot box. But is thi...
Queuing Backwards
September 07, 2015 11:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBQueuing backwards Britons love to queue, but have we been getting it wrong? Lars Peter Osterdal from the University of Southern Denmark discusses his theory of how to make queuing more efficient. Thinking Like an Engineer Engineer Guru Madhavan tells the story of the development of the barcode and argues that those making policy should ask engineers as well as economists about solving social problems. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Wesley Stephenson
Fit for work or at deaths door?
September 04, 2015 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25 MBDeaths of people 'fit for work' Thousands of people are dying after being declared 'fit for work' by the government according to the Guardian. The figures are from a long awaited freedom of information release from the Department for Work and Pensions. But do the figures actually tell us anything? More or Less investigates. Sugar Sugar has had a pretty bad press over the last few months and seems to have replaced fat as the current 'evil' in our diets. We look at some of the claims that ...
WS MoreOrLess: China Stock Market Crash
August 31, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBThe Chinese Market Crash in context. How big is the market, how many investors does it have and does it tell us anything about the wider Chinese economy? Sprinters legs It may seem strange, but world class runners don’t move their legs faster than average park runner. That’s the claim anyway – is it true and if so what is it that makes athletes like Usain Bolt and Justin Gatlin run so fast?
China Stock Market Crash
August 28, 2015 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBThe Chinese Market Crash in context. How big is the market, how many investors does it have and does it tell us anything about the wider Chinese economy? Eight Million Foreigners Are there really eight million foreigners in the UK? What does 95% less harmful actually mean? E-cigarettes are 95% less harmful than ordinary cigarettes according to last week's report by Public Health England. But what does this mean? The number was arrived at using something called 'multi criteria decision...
WS MoreOrLess: The Elliptical Pool Table
August 24, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.74 MBLoop The ancient Greeks saw magic in the geometry of an ellipse and now mathematical writer Alex Bellos has put this to use in a specially designed table for a specially designed game of pool. Premier League predictions If a martian came to earth wanting to know where each team would finish in the English Premier League this season where should he go to get the most accurate prediction?
Soaring diabetes - is there some good news?
August 21, 2015 16:00 - 23 minutes - 21.6 MBDiabetes We heard earlier this week that there had been a 60% rise in the number of cases of diabetes in the last ten years. But is there actually some good news in these figures? Odd (attempted) burglaries Police in Leicestershire have been only sending forensic teams to attempted burglaries at houses with even numbers. The papers reported it as a scandal driven by money saving. But is it a scandal or a sensible attempt to work out how to deploy the police's tight resources? Men who pay...
WS More or Less: Worm wars
August 17, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MBA debate has been raging over the last month about the benefits of mass deworming projects. Hugely popular with the UN and charities, the evidence behind the practice has come under attack. Are the criticisms justified? We hear from the different sides – both economists and epidemiologists and their approach to the numbers. Football predictions How useful are football predictions and should we always trust the so called experts? The More or Less team look into the idea that predicting where...
Migrant Crisis
August 14, 2015 16:00 - 23 minutes - 21.9 MBMigrant Crisis There is a "swarm" of migrants coming into Europe according to the Prime Minister. Where are they coming from and how many are coming to Calais to try to get into Britain? Are 70 percent of migrants in Calais making it to the UK, as claimed in the Daily Mail? We scrutinise the numbers. Worm wars A debate has been raging over the last month about the benefits of mass deworming projects. Hugely popular with the UN and charities, the evidence behind the practice has come unde...
WS More or Less: Wrestlers - dying too young?
August 07, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBFollowing the recent death of wrestler "Rowdy" Roddy Piper we ask if wrestlers are more likely to die young. We explore why that might be and how they compare to athletes from other sports. Plus - is Nigeria the largest consumer of champagne in the world after France?
WSMoreOrLess: Counting Foreign Fighters
July 31, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBIt has been reported that as many as 20,000 foreign fighters have joined militants in the Middle East and that they make up around 10% of ISIS. Wesley Stephenson and Federica Cocco look at the numbers behind those claims and examine where those fighting in places like Syria and Iraq come from.
WS MoreOrLess: Life Expectancy
July 24, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBRuth Alexander and the team return to the question of how long you might live. Those born today are expected to live six and a half years longer than those born in 1990 but can this trend continue?
WS MoreOrLess: Live 8, The G8 and Making Poverty History
July 17, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBIts ten years since some of the world’s richest nations met in Gleneagles, Scotland. It was there that the G8 agreed to improve trade with developing nations, increase aid, and to wipe the debt of some of the poorest countries. The agreement followed Live 8 where the likes of Bono and Bob Geldof demanded that they ‘Make Poverty History’. Wesley Stephenson and the More or Less team look at what has been achieved during the past decade.
Greece Special
July 10, 2015 16:14 - 30 minutes - 27.7 MBIs it true that Greece failed to collect 89% of taxes in 2010? Tim Harford and the More or Less team look at the numbers behind the tax system and the other statistics used to tell the story of the Greek crisis. Which ones are home truths and which ones are myths.
Biggest Movies
June 26, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.68 MBThe film Jurassic World broke the record for the biggest opening weekend taking $511m. It’s a record that has been broken once already this year and most of the top ten films with the biggest opening weekends were released in the last five years. So in an age where the competition is fierce for cinemas why are these films doing so well? Bees and the British Royal Family For reasons best known to the editors, one British newspaper decided to ask the question: ‘Who brings more to the British ...
WS MoreOrLess: Horoscope Health
June 19, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBCan your horoscope predict which diseases you’ll develop? And does cricket’s Duckworth-Lewis method need to evolve?
WS MoreOrLess: Global Footprint
June 13, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBGlobal Footprint We’re often told that we consume so much that we need one and a half planets. It comes from the Global Footprint Network a think-tank that has pioneered ecological foot-printing but what does that number even mean, and is it helpful? Chocolate makes you thinner We tell the story behind the chocolate experiment designed to deliberately fool the press. Concerned about the amount of pseudo-science surrounding diet and nutrition, John Bohannon and Peter Onneken ran a trial and h...
Obesity Projections, Global Footprint, Street Value of Drugs
June 12, 2015 16:00 - 23 minutes - 21.8 MBIt's the last in the series so we're packing in the statistical goodies so that you can go into numerical hibernation until August. We're looking at the street value of drugs: when police claim that they've confiscated hundreds of millions of pounds worth of narcotics, where do those numbers come from? And how has the dark internet changed drug prices? We'll also be looking at claims that those of us who aren't binging on drugs are binging on biscuits instead. Apparently much of the UK and a...
WS MoreOrLess: Qatar migrant worker deaths
June 06, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBTim Harford asks if the World Cup is to blame for migrant deaths in Qatar. And we solve the fiendish maths exam question that baffled students so much it became a trend on Twitter.
World Cup Migrant Deaths
June 05, 2015 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBTim Harford asks if the World Cup is really responsible for migrant deaths in Qatar.
WS MoreOrLess: John Nash
May 30, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBOn 23 May, the mathematician John Nash was killed in a car crash, alongside his wife Alicia. The couple were in their 80s. Professor Nash was on his way home from Norway after receiving the prestigious Abel prize for mathematics. He also won the Nobel memorial prize in economics in 1994, and was made famous far beyond academia when he was played by Russell Crowe in the film, A Beautiful Mind. Tim Harford takes a look back at his life with economist Peyton Young who knew Nash well. Tim also l...
Seven-day NHS
May 29, 2015 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBThis week: Seven Day NHS. As a commitment appears in the Queen's Speech to introduce a 'truly seven day-a-week NHS' we look at David Cameron's assertion that mortality rates are 16% higher for people admitted on a Sunday over those admitted on a Wednesday. And is seven day working really about saving lives. John Nash The mathematician and scientist, Nobel Laureate and subject of the film a beautiful mind was killed in car accident earlier this month. We look at why he was so important to...
WS MoreOrLess: Death Penalty
May 23, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBDeath Row exoneration statistics. Recently it’s been claimed that for every nine people executed in the US, one person has been exonerated. Is this true – and do the statistics vary state to state?
Female Drink Drivers
May 22, 2015 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBThe Police Federation says female drivers aren’t heeding the drink drive warnings. Tim Harford attempts to find out the numbers behind this. Plus: the Rotterdam Effect; Death Row exonerations; pub closures; and owl counting.
WS MoreOrLess: Big Numbers
May 16, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBHow computers are fooled by big numbers. Chris Baraniuk, technology journalist, talks about the simple software bug that has led to explosions, missing space probes, and more. Plus, an update on the two mothers-to-be whose due dates we analysed earlier on in the year.
Strokes, Teachers, Confused Computers 15 May15
May 15, 2015 16:00 - 23 minutes - 21.7 MBAre stroke numbers on the rise? This was according to recent headlines. We spoke to Tony Rudd, National Clinical Director for Stroke NHS England. Plus: teachers leaving their jobs; computers being confused by big numbers; and how the UK Election would have been changed by alternate polling methods.
WS MoreOrLess: Princess Charlotte
May 11, 2015 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.74 MBThe birth of Princess Charlotte could contribute £1 billion to the British economy, according to some newspapers. True? Plus, the statistics of sex. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Election and Adultery Special
May 08, 2015 16:00 - 23 minutes - 21.2 MBTim Harford and a panel of experts discuss pre-election polls and election fact checking. Plus, is Beeston in Nottinghamshire really the most adulterous town in the country?
UK election podcast 4
May 06, 2015 17:00 - 16 minutes - 15.4 MBWhy don’t all the opinion polls give the same results? Plus, would Labour’s plan to introduce a rent cap work, and how boring has this election been? The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme.
WS MoreOrLess: Nuns on the rise
May 02, 2015 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBIt was recently reported that the number of women training to become Catholic nuns in Great Britain has reached a 25-year high. What's the long-term trend – are more women becoming nuns? Tim Harford looks at figures from the UK and across the world. Plus, Matt Parker the stand-up mathematician is invited back to the programme to respond to a listener's query about his theory on the best way to find a life partner.
Polls, nuns and life partners
May 01, 2015 16:00 - 23 minutes - 21.8 MBOn the eve of the UK's general election, Tim Harford takes a look at what polling data can tell us about predicting elections. Is the number of Catholic nuns on the up? What's the long-term trend – are more women becoming nuns in the UK? Tim Harford looks at the figures. Plus, Matt Parker the stand-up mathematician is invited back to the programme to respond to a listener's query about his theory on the best way to find a life partner.
WS MoreOrLess: Xenophobia in South Africa
April 25, 2015 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBAre migrants ‘stealing’ jobs; does South Africa have more asylum seekers than any other country in the world? These are some of the claims we explore this week in the midst of some of the worst xenophobic attacks in recent years in South Africa. Plus – could you go to jail for reporting false statistics? You might in Tanzania where they are in the process of bringing in a law to tackle publishing bad figures. We ask whether journalists and researchers should be worried. This edition of More ...
UK Election Podcast 3
April 24, 2015 16:30 - 16 minutes - 15.4 MBAre we witnessing a jobs ‘miracle’? Also under scrutiny - Scotland’s deficit; a mansion tax; and what would a Miliband-SNP pact cost us? The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme.
WS MoreOrLess: Liver Transplant.
April 18, 2015 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MBA young listener who needs a liver transplant has received an offer from his brother to act as a living donor. What are the statistics on survival? Plus, is it true that a child goes missing every 90 seconds in the USA? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
UK election podcast 2
April 17, 2015 16:30 - 27 minutes - 25.2 MBFact-checking the politicians during the election campaign on NHS funding; rail fares and the railways; public spending; debt and the deficit; the Right-to-Buy; and education. The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme.
UK election podcast 1
April 13, 2015 17:00 - 33 minutes - 30.2 MBCan you trust the figures given to you by the political parties during the UK's General Election campaign period? We examine and unpick the statistics so you can decide how useful they are. The podcast features a collection of interviews from Radio 4's PM programme. We look at zero hours contracts, non-dom tax status and the broader economy.
WS MoreOrLess: The Ignorance Test
April 11, 2015 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBProfessor Hans Rosling - perhaps best-described as a kind of international development myth buster - delivers his Ignorance Test. Hans asked presenter Ruth Alexander three questions from the test. Can you do any better? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Maths and Chess
April 03, 2015 17:50 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBIs it really true that ability in mathematics and chess are somehow linked? Tim Harford pits his wits against a math-professor-turned-professional-chess-player, John Nunn. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: How safe is flying?
March 28, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBThe Germanwings A320 tragedy, in which 150 people died, is the latest in a series of fatal crashes over the past year. Are more planes crashing, or does it just seem that way? Plus: is the number of penalties Chelsea Football Club have been awarded in the Premier League this season "abnormally low" as they have claimed? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Does Breastfeeding Increase IQ?
March 21, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBA major 30-year study claims to show breastfed babies become more intelligent, higher earning adults. It's not the first time we've heard that breastfeeding raises IQ levels; but is this evidence any more convincing? Ruth Alexander and Hannah Moore explore the details with Dr Stuart Ritchie from The University of Edinburgh. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Measuring World Health
March 14, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBBabies born in Rwanda are likely to live healthier lives than those in the most deprived 10% of England, according to recent reports. But does the data back this up? And how is "good health" measured across the world? Hannah Moore and Wesley Stephenson explore the numbers with Professor David Gordon from Bristol University’s International Poverty Research Centre. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: The future of food
March 07, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MB"In the next 40 years, humans will need to produce more food that they did in the previous 10,000," claimed a recent edition of The Economist. Ruth Alexander and Hannah Moore look at whether this is true. With the world's population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, how confident can we be that everyone will have enough to eat? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.