More or Less: Behind the Stats
960 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago - ★★★★★ - 740 ratingsTim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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Episodes
The Referendum by Numbers: Law
June 15, 2016 16:05 - 11 minutes - 10.8 MBIf it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, regulations and trade. But today we're looking at lawmaking. Tim Harford asks how much UK law comes from the EU and are we alwa...
The Referendum by Numbers: Immigration
June 14, 2016 11:30 - 11 minutes - 10.8 MBIf it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - The cost of the EU, lawmaking, regulations and trade. In th secomd of these programmes Tim Harford asks what might happen to migration if we left the EU, and what are t...
The Referendum by Numbers: The Cost of EU Membership
June 13, 2016 12:29 - 11 minutes - 10.3 MBIf the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - immigration, lawmaking, regulations and trade. But in this first program, Tim Harford tackles two very basic questions: how much would we save if we left the EU? And what would...
WS More or Less: Sexist Data Crisis
June 10, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBThere is a black hole in our knowledge of women and girls around the world. Campaigners say that they are often missing from official statistics and areas of their lives are ignored completely - but what needs to be done? Producer: Charlotte McDonald Presenter: Tim Harford
WS More or Less: HIV in Africa
June 03, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.59 MBThe news aggregation website Zimbabwe Today recently ran a headline stating that 74% of African girls aged 15-24 are HIV positive. Although the statistic is not true, Mary Mahy from UNAIDS reveals that young women do have a higher infection rate than young men. Kyle Evans is a folk singing mathematician by trade who is always looking for new ways to communicate his love of maths to a sometimes apprehensive audience. Next week he is representing the UK against 26 other countries at the Chelt...
WS More or Less: Refugee Camp Statistics
May 27, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBWhat is the average length of stay in a refugee camp? It is regularly reported that it is 17 years but is this true? Floppy Disks This week’s shocking revelation of the computer world was that the Department of Defence still uses 1970s floppy disks to coordinate its nuclear weapons systems. But can it possibly be true that you could fit more than three million of them on a single ten dollar USB drive? Producer: Laura Gray Presenter: Ruth Alexander
WS More or Less: The World's Most Profitable Product
May 20, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.58 MBRecently one of our listeners contacted us to say he heard a BBC correspondent describe the iPhone as the most profitable product in history. It was just an off-the-cuff comment but it got us thinking - could it be true? We compare and contrast a range of products suggested by More or Less listeners to work out if the iPhone truly is the most profitable. Producer: Laura Gray
WS More or Less: The world’s most diverse city
May 13, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBIs London the most diverse city in the world? The new London mayor Sadiq Khan has claimed that it is, but is he right? How is diversity measured? This month, British mathematician Sir Andrew Wiles will go to Oslo to collect the Abel prize, a prestigious maths prize for his work proving Fermat’s last theorem. Science author Simon Singh explains his work. Producers: Laura Gray and Ed Davey.
WS More or Less: Leicester City football fluke?
May 09, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.61 MBAt the beginning of the season of the English football Premier League, few people would have been brave enough to predict that Leicester City would finish top. But was it that surprising? Tim Harford speaks to Lord Finkelstein, a political journalist, who has been running his own statistical model to assess the teams in the Premier League. We also hear from James Yorke from the football analytics website Stats Bomb. Was Leicester’s success down to the team’s skills, or was it down to luck?
The most profitable product in history
May 06, 2016 16:29 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBRecently one of our listeners contacted us to say he heard a BBC correspondent describe the iPhone as the most profitable product in history. It was just an off-the-cuff comment but it got us thinking – could it be true? We asked listeners to get in touch with their suggestions. We take a look at a handful of them, from Viagra to popcorn in our quest for an answer. Could it be something more historical? EU and trade: We take a look at the numbers on trade and at the UK’s relationship with ...
WS More or Less: Simpson’s Paradox
May 02, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.64 MBA Dutch statistician recently became suspicious by headlines in the Dutch news that women were being discriminated against when it came to getting science research funding. Professor Casper Albers of the Heymans Institute for Psychological Research, Groningen, discovered that the study into the funding process showed that when you looked at the overall numbers of successful candidates, women seemed to be less successful than men. And yet, when you looked at a breakdown of the different subje...
EU Migration
April 29, 2016 16:00 - 28 minutes - 25.6 MBHow many people have come from the EU to live in the UK? And what impact do they have on the economy? This week it was reported there had been an increase in fire deaths – we aren’t so sure. We explain the achievement of Abel Prize winning mathematician Sir Andrew Wiles for Fermat’s Last Theorem. Plus, we explore the numbers behind Simpson’s Paradox.
WS More or Less: Most Expensive Building
April 25, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.47 MBWhat is the most expensive “object” ever built? There are plans in the UK to build a brand new nuclear power station called Hinckley Point. The environmental charity Greenpeace have claimed it is set to be the most expensive object on Earth. But could it really cost more to build than the Great Pyramid of Giza? We take a look at some of the most costly building projects on the planet.
Brexit numbers
April 22, 2016 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBEU Treasury report This week there was much debate over the Treasury report which modelled how leaving the EU would affect the economy. Tim Harford speaks to the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson about how the document was presented to the public, and how it was reported. Chris Giles of the Financial Times explains that there are useful points to take from the Treasury’s analysis. Hinckley Point nuclear power station What is the most expensive “object” ever built? The environmental charity Greenp...
WS More or Less: The life expectancy of a Pope
April 18, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.64 MBLife expectancy of a Pope In 2014 Pope Francis alluded to the fact he didn’t expect to live more than another two or three years. A group of statisticians have taken a look at the life expectancy of popes over the centuries and decided that he may have been rather pessimistic. The curse of the London Olympics In a similar vein, is there an unusually high death count among athletes who took part in the London Olympics in 2012? The French press seem to think there is. Currently news report...
Celebrity deaths
April 15, 2016 16:45 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBCelebrity deaths A number of people have asked the team if more famous people have died this year compared to other years. It’s a hard one to measure – but we have had a go at some back of the envelope calculations with data from Who’s Who and BBC obituaries. Is the intuitive feeling that more people have died this year misplaced? ‘What British Muslims really think’ poll This week many news outlets covered polling research carried out for a documentary on Channel 4. Some of the points tha...
WS More or Less: The story of average
April 11, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.51 MBIn the 1600s astronomers were coming up with measurements to help sailors read their maps with a compass. But with all the observations of the skies they were making, how do they choose the best number? We tell the story of how astronomers started to find the average from a group of numbers. By the 1800s, one Belgian astronomer began to apply this to all sorts of social and national statistics – and the ‘Average Man’ was born.
Fathers and babies
April 08, 2016 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBPaternity Leave This week it was claimed that only 1 percent of men are taking up the option of shared parental leave – a new provision that came into force a year ago. A number of media outlets covered the story, interviewing experts about why there was such a low take-up. But in reality the figures used are deeply flawed and cannot be used to prove such a statement. Exponential Love “I love you twice as much today as yesterday, but half as much as tomorrow.” – This is the inscription on ...
WS More or Less: The Great EU Cabbage Myth
April 05, 2016 12:05 - 9 minutes - 8.67 MBCould there really be 26,911 words of European Union regulation dedicated to the sale of cabbage? This figure is often used by those arguing there is too much bureaucracy in the EU. But we trace its origins back to 1940s America. It wasn’t true then, and it isn’t true today. So how did this cabbage myth grow and spread? And what is the real number of words relating to the sale of cabbages in the EU? Tim Harford presents.
The Great EU Cabbage Myth
April 04, 2016 08:49 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBCould there really be 26,911 words of European Union regulation dedicated to the sale of cabbage? This figure is often used by those arguing there is too much bureaucracy in the EU. But we trace its origins back to 1940s America. It wasn't true then, and it isn't true today. So how did this cabbage myth grow and spread? And what is the real number of words relating to the sale of cabbages in the EU? After the recent announcement that all schools would be converted to academies, a number of l...
WSMoreOrLess: Safe drinking
March 24, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.45 MBNew alcohol guidelines were issued recently in the UK which lowered the number of units recommended for safe drinking. But are the benefits and harms of alcohol being judged correctly? We speak to Professor David Speigelhalter. Tim Harford presents. Producer: Charlotte McDonald/Richard Vadon
WSMoreOrLess: Mobiles or lightbulbs
March 18, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBMobile technology is spreading fast in Africa, and one lawyer Gerald Abila has done the maths and worked out that there are more mobile phones than lightbulbs in Uganda. We look at his figures and find that measuring them is more complicated than you might imagine. There are certainly numbers you can choose to demonstrate this, but are they the right ones? Thyroid cancer has gone up after the Fukushima accident - but it's not what you think. Japanese authorities were worried about the impact...
WSMoreOrLess: Can we trust food surveys?
March 11, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBStories about what foods are good and bad for you, which foods are linked to cancer and which have beneficial qualities are always popular online and in the news. But how do experts know what people are eating? Tim Harford speaks to Christie Aschwanden, FiveThirtyEight’s lead writer for science, about the pitfalls of food surveys. She kept a food diary and answered nutrition surveys and found many of the questions were really hard to answer – how could she tell all the ingredients in a resta...
WSMoreOrLess: Fact checking The Big Short
March 04, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MB"Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?" says Brad Pitt playing a former investment banker Ben Rickert, in the recent Oscar-winning film The Big Short. Although based on a true story, the filmmakers admit there is some creative license in some of the scenes. But is there any truth to this statistic? It turns out it’s a figure that has been around for many decades. We explore its origins. The debate over whether the UK should leave the European Union is...
WSMoreOrLess: Antibiotics and the problem of the broken market
February 26, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBIt’s a life and death situation – the world is at its last line of defence against some pretty nasty bacteria and there are no new antibiotics. But it’s not the science that’s the big problem, it the economics. Despite the $40 billion market worldwide there’s no money to be made in antibiotics so big pharma have all but stopped their research. Why is this and how do we entice them back in? Wesley Stephenson finds out. (Image: Computer artwork of bacteria - credit: Science Photo Library)
WSMoreOrLess: When £10,000 isn’t a good incentive
February 19, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBCould no prize have been a better way to motivate snooker player Ronnie O’Sullivan?
WSMoreOrLess: Fishy numbers?
February 15, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.38 MBThere were reports recently that there will more plastic in the ocean than fish by 2050. The report comes from The Ellen MacArthur Foundation. But as we discover there's something fishy about these figures. And what are the chances that as a parent you share your birthday with two of your children.
Selfies, sugar daddies and dodgy surveys
February 12, 2016 18:33 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBAdverstising dressed up as research has inspired us this week. Firstly recent reports that said that young women aged between 16 and 25 spend five and a half hours taking selfies on average. It doersn't take much thinking to realise that thhere something really wrong with this number. We pick apart the survey that suggested women are spending all that time taking pictures of themselves. The second piece of questionable research comes from reports that a quarter of a million UK students are...
WSMoreOrLess: Do e-cigarettes really harm your chances of quitting smoking?
February 08, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.99 MBResearch last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It’s been described as "grossly misleading" and "not scientific". We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place. (Image: Man smoking e-cigarette. Credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
E-cigarettes: Can They Help People Quit?
February 05, 2016 17:33 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBDo e-cigarettes make quitting smoking more difficult? Research last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It's been described as 'grossly misleading' and 'not scientific'. We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place. A campaign of dodgy statistic...
Swedish refugees
February 01, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.51 MBHave refugees caused a gender imbalance in Sweden? It has been reported that there are 123 boys for every 100 girls aged between 16 and 17 in Sweden. In China, the ratio is 117 boys to 100 girls. We explore if the numbers add up and why this might be.
How harmful is alcohol?
January 29, 2016 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBNew alcohol guidelines were issued recently which lowered the number of units recommended for safe drinking. But are the benefits and harms of alcohol being jusged correctly? We speak to Professor David Speigelhalter and Sepsis – do 44,000 people die of it a year? Is it the country's second biggest killer? We speak to Dr Marissa Mason about the difficulties of knowing the numbers. Dan Bouk tells the story of a statistician who crept around graveyards in South Carolina at the turn of the ...
WSMoreOrLess: Oxfam and Wealth Inequality
January 25, 2016 12:01 - 9 minutes - 8.97 MBYou may have seen the claim that ‘62 people now own as much wealth as half of the world’s population’. You may also have seen headlines that suggest that 1% of the world’s population now own more than the 99% put together. This is the latest iteration of Oxfam’s annual report looking at global inequality. They say that the overall the world may be getting richer but that most of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people. But is this really telling us what we think it’...
Billionaires versus the world
January 22, 2016 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBOxfam says that 62 people now own as much wealth as half of the world’s population. But is this really telling us anything meaningful? And how is it that this study shows that some of the world’s poorest people live in the United States? What do you do with bored children on a bus? Rob Eastaway, author of ‘Maths on the go,’ gets three pupils to play a game on the Number 12 in south London. Prime Minister David Cameron said this week that 22% of British Muslim women speak little or no Engl...
WS MoreOrLess: Gravitational Waves
January 18, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.94 MBOne of our 2015 ‘Numbers of the Year’ predictions might have come to pass. There is great excitement over rumours that one of the predictions Einstein made in his theory of General Relativity has finally been observed. But it’s not the first time it’s been reported that ‘gravitational waves’ have been discovered, and the last time proved to be an equipment test. What is the total number of possible tweets that could be created from 140 characters? In a recent programme Professor John Allen-...
Weekend Stroke Deaths
January 15, 2016 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBHealth Secretary Jeremy Hunt said this week that if you have a stroke at the weekends, you're 20% more likely to die. But is that true? We look at the evidence. Are you more likely to win prizes with newer Premium Bonds? We ask Radio 4’s Money Box presenter Paul Lewis if there is any truth in this. A few weeks ago many newspapers were reporting that alcohol was the cause of 70% of Accident and Emergency attendances over the weekends. Did the newspapers misunderstand the research? Why was ...
WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year 2015: Part Three
January 11, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBWhat is preventing some Americans from being creative? And, how much money does the English Premier League contribute in tax? Tim Harford looks back over some of the numbers that made the news in 2015. He speaks to author and broadcaster Farai Chideya, former footballer Graeme le Saux, and BBC cricket statistician Andrew Samson.
Flood Defence Spending
January 08, 2016 17:00 - 24 minutes - 22.2 MBTim Harford and the team take a look at some of the numbers in the news about flooding. What is a one hundred year flood? And is there really a north-south divide in the amount of money spent on flood defences in England? What is the total number of possible tweets that could be created from 140 characters? In a recent programme Professor John Allen-Paulos told us that when you take into account all of the symbols available, the total number of possible tweets is Googol2.8 (which is a 1 fo...
WSMoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year 2015 Part 2
January 04, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBHow healthy is the Nigerian economy and how many possible tweets are there? Tim Harford looks back over some of the numbers that made the news in 2015. Guests include: Peter Cunliffe-Jones from Africa Check, Professor John Allen Paulos and Dr Andrew Pontzen
Numbers of the Year 2015
January 01, 2016 17:00 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBTim Harford looks back at some of the most interesting numbers behind the news in 2015, from the migrant crisis to social media messages. Contributors include: Professor Jane Green, Helen Arney, Paul Lewis, Andrew Samson, Leonard Doyle , Peter Cunliffe-Jones, Farai Chideya, Claire Melamed and Professor John Allen Paulos.
WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year 2015 Part 1
December 25, 2015 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBHow has the European migrant crisis affected the number of people seeking asylum? In this special programme Tim Harford looks back at some of the numbers making the news in 2015. Guests include: Leonard Doyle from the International Organisation for Migration and Claire Melamed from the Overseas Development Institute.
WS MoreOrLess: How Many Stormtroopers are there?
December 18, 2015 17:00 - 12 minutes - 11.5 MBAre Star Wars’ Stormtroopers the biggest secret army on Earth? Ruth Alexander investigates, and looks at some of the other numbers behind one of the most successful movie franchises in history.
WS MoreOrLess:100 Year Floods?
December 11, 2015 17:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBDo so-called ‘100 year floods’ only happen once a century? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson investigate. Also, does the air in Beijing cause as much damage as smoking 40 cigarettes a day?
WS MoreOrLess: Climate Change
December 08, 2015 10:21 - 9 minutes - 8.68 MBRuth Alexander investigates claims climate change has contributed to the war in Syria, and with the climate change summit COP21 underway in Paris, we answer listener’s climate change number questions.
WS MoreOrLess: '‘Sympathy’ for jihadis
November 27, 2015 17:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBA front page article in a British tabloid claimed that one in five British Muslims have sympathy for jihadis. Ruth Alexander investigates whether this is correct, and asks which countries have the most support for Islamic State fighters.
WS MoreOrLess: Has Islamic State been Losing Territory?
November 20, 2015 21:50 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBHas so-called Islamic State been losing territory? Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron has claimed IS have lost about 25-30% of their territory in Iraq. Is this true? Plus, is Premier League footballer Héctor Bellerín faster than Usain Bolt? Bellerín can reportedly run 40 metres in 4.41 seconds. Ruth Alexander asks how their times compare.
WS MoreOrLess: Creativity and Mental Illness
November 13, 2015 22:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBAre creative people more likely to suffer mental illness, and has Cuba wiped out child hunger? Wesley Stephenson investigates.
WS MoreOrLess: China's One Child Policy
November 06, 2015 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBAs China ends its one child rule what has been its impact on the country’s population? The More or Less team take a look at whether the policy on its own has slowed the rate at which China’s population has been growing. And now that parents in China will be allowed to have two children, which country will have the largest population in 2030? China or India? Ruth Alexander presents.
WS MoreOrLess: Processed Meat and Cancer
October 30, 2015 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBAre processed meats as cancer-causing as cigarettes, and has the Rugby world cup been the most brutal? Ruth Alexander investigates.
WS MoreOrLess: Oil
October 23, 2015 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBNigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari said a million barrels of the country’s oil were stolen per day. Is he right? Ruth Alexander asks Peter Cunliffe-Jones of Africa Check. And, does 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil lie in the Arctic? Producers: Keith Moore and Phoebe Keane.