More or Less: Behind the Stats

Infant Mortality, How to Reduce Exam Revision With Maths, London’s Murder Rate

June 08, 2018 16:00 - 24 minutes - 22.3 MB

(0.24) Infant mortality is on the rise in England and Wales – but is this change down to social issues such as obesity and deprivation, as claimed, or the way doctors count very premature babies? (9.45) A self-confessed lazy student wrote in to ask how he can minimise exam revision, while still ensuring a high chance of passing – we do the sums. (15.44) Do a billion birds really die each year by flying into buildings? We explain another zombie statistic which refuses to die. (18.40) It ...

Counting Rough Sleepers

June 04, 2018 08:04 - 12 minutes - 11.2 MB

How do you count the number of people sleeping rough? According to the latest official figures around 4700 people were sleeping in the streets in the autumn of 2017. And that got us thinking. These statistics aren’t just downloaded from some big database in the sky. They need – like any statistic – to be collected and calculated. So how is it done?

The High Street, Home Births and Harry Potter Wizardry

June 01, 2018 17:25 - 20 minutes - 19 MB

Is WH Smith really the worst shop on the High Street? Harry Potter fans want to know how many wizards there are – we try to work it out. Is giving birth at home as safe as giving birth in hospital? (Photo: Mother and baby. Credit: Shutterstock)

WS More or Less: Australia Calling

May 28, 2018 09:00 - 11 minutes - 10.2 MB

This week we tackle some of our listeners’ questions from Australia: do one in seven businessmen throw out their pants after wearing them once? This is a claim made by an expert talking about clothes waste – but what does it come from? Do horses kill more people than venomous animals? Australia is known for its dangerous wildlife, but how deadly is it for humans? Plus, a politician says lots of Australians have used cannabis – we take a look at the evidence. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers...

Forecasting rain, teabags and voter ID trials

May 25, 2018 16:44 - 23 minutes - 21.8 MB

(00.28) Reading the BBC weather app – we explain the numbers on the forecast (06:55) University of Oxford Admissions: how diverse is its intake? (11:37) Voter idea trial at the local elections – counting those who were turned away from the polling station. (15:46) How much tea do Brits drink? We investigate a regularly cited estimate (20:06) Are pensioners richer than people of working age?

WS More or Less: James Comey - Basketball Superstar?

May 21, 2018 09:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MB

Former FBI Director James Comey is very, very tall – over two metres tall, or 6’8” - and many media outlets commented on his height during his recent run-in with President Trump. But to what extent does being very tall improve your chances of becoming a professional basketball player? In this week’s programme Tim Harford looks at the likelihood that James Comey – or any very tall person - might make it as a pro in the NBA. He speaks to data scientist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz who has crunc...

Poverty, Progress 8 and how green is grass?

May 18, 2018 16:20 - 24 minutes - 22 MB

(0.22) Are more children from working families in poverty? (6.50) Progress 8 – explaining the new school league tables for England (12.51) Can a garden product really make your grass 6 times greener? (18.03) ‘Data is’ versus ‘data are’ (20.21) Royal Wedding economics

WS More or Less: Tulipmania mythology

May 14, 2018 09:00 - 11 minutes - 10.1 MB

The story goes that Amsterdam in the 1630’s was gripped by a mania for Tulip flowers. But then there was a crash in the market. People ended up bankrupt and threw themselves into canals. This story is still being trotted out when people talk about financial markets, lately as a comparison to buying and selling bitcoin. But how much of what we know of the Tulip craze is fact, and how much is myth? We speak to Anne Goldgar at Kings College London who explains all.

Abortion, modern slavery, math versus maths

May 11, 2018 16:21 - 23 minutes - 21.5 MB

(00:26) The UK abortion statistics gaining attention in Ireland’s referendum debate (03:49) Superforecasting author Phillip Tetlock talks to Tim Harford (09:51) Modern Slavery figures in the UK (17:43) Should you say math or maths?

WS More or Less: Exposing the biases we have of the world

May 07, 2018 09:00 - 9 minutes - 8.97 MB

The great statistician, Hans Rosling, died in February last year. Throughout his life Hans used data to explain how the world was changing – and often improving – and he would challenge people to examine their own preconceptions and ignorance. Before he became ill, Hans had started working on a book about these questions and what they reveal about the mental biases that tend to lead us astray. Tim Harford speaks to his son Ola and daughter in law Anna who worked on the book with him.

Cancer screening, the Windrush Generation, Audiograms

May 04, 2018 16:33 - 23 minutes - 21.8 MB

(0:32) Breast screening – the Numbers: 450,000 women have accidentally not been invited for breast cancer screening (07:26) Counting the Windrush Generation: What do we know about those who might be lacking documentation (11:15) Has Nigel Farage been on Question Time too often? We chart his appearances over 18 years (16:32) Painting a picture with an audiogram: Data journalist Mona Chalabi talks about her unusual approach to analysing numbers. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte ...

WS More or Less: Puerto Rico - statistics versus politics

April 29, 2018 09:00 - 10 minutes - 9.74 MB

The government of Puerto Rico has developed a plan to strip the island’s statistical agency of its independent board as part of a money saving enterprise. But as the Caribbean island recovers from a debt crisis and the devastation of Hurricane Maria which struck last year, many are questioning whether the move could have long reaching implications. Presenters: Tim Harford and Kate Lamble Producer: Kate Lamble (Photo: Damage to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria: The La Perla neighbourhood,...

Straws, women on boards, plus animals born each day

April 27, 2018 16:22 - 23 minutes - 21.7 MB

Does the UK throw away 8.5 billion straws a year? (0’33’’) Women on FTSE 100 boards (4’35”) We explore whether the proportion of female directors has changed over time, and what it tells us about women in business. Using personal data for the public good (11’28”) Hetan Shah, the Executive Director of the Royal Statistical Society, talks about storing people’s data. How many animals are born every day? (15’39”)

WS More or Less: How Should We Think About Spending?

April 20, 2018 16:12 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

Tim Harford talks to economist Dan Ariely about the psychology of money. They discuss how understanding the way we think about our finances can help us to spend more carefully and save more efficiently. Plus Dan explains how to never have an argument over sharing a restaurant bill again. (Photo: Mannequins in a shop window wearing sale t-shirts. Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

WS More More or Less: Are We Breathing Unsafe Air?

April 13, 2018 15:47 - 9 minutes - 8.82 MB

The World Health Organisation say that 95% of people who live in cities breathe unsafe air. But what do they mean by ‘unsafe’? And how do they calculate the levels or air pollution for every city in the world? Plus Mt Etna in Italy has reportedly moved by 14mm, but who is calculating this? And how do they know the answer with such accuracy? (Photo: People wear masks as smoke billows from a coal fired power plant, Shanxi, China. Credit: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

WS More or Less: Why London’s Murder Rate is Being Compared to New York’s

April 08, 2018 19:30 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

London’s murder rate is on the rise – and for the first time ever it has just overtaken New York’s, according to a number of media outlets. But is it true? And is it appropriate for journalists to compare between the two cities? South Africa’s missing children statistics A viral Facebook post has suggested that one child is kidnapped every thirty seconds in South Africa. We examine the evidence which shows that a child is reported missing every nine hours to the police, and this includes mor...

WS More or Less: How Deadly Was 1920s Melbourne?

March 29, 2018 14:10 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

Miss Fisher’s Murder Mysteries is one of Australia’s most popular television series and has been broadcast in 172 territories worldwide. Set in 1920’s Melbourne the series’ protagonist, Miss Phryne Fisher, seems to have a lot of dead bodies on her metaphorical plate. So how does the series compare with the real life murder rate at that time? Join the More Or Less team as we step back in time for some statistical sleuthing.

Were ‘extra’ votes counted in Russia’s presidential election?

March 23, 2018 15:24 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MB

Last week Vladimir Putin won a second consecutive and fourth overall term as the Russian President. Official polling results from the election show he received over 76 percent of the vote, with a total turnout of 67 percent, but there were also widespread allegations of irregularities including inflated turnout figures. More or Less takes a closer look at the election data from Russia to see if these complaints have merit.

Factchecking Trump on Trade

March 16, 2018 16:14 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MB

Whenever Donald Trump talks about trade he brings up one statistic again and again, the US trade balance. This is the relationship between the goods and services the US imports from other countries and what it exports – if America buys more from a country than that country buys from America there’s a deficit, and Trump claims America has a trade deficit with almost every country in the world. Is he right? We unpick whether President Trump is quoting the correct numbers on trade, hear how t...

WS More or Less: Sir Roger Bannister

March 09, 2018 18:45 - 9 minutes - 8.54 MB

After Sir Roger Bannister ran a mile in under four minutes, did positive thinking propel dozens to do the same?

WS More or Less: Women, the Oscars and the Bechdel Test

March 05, 2018 10:52 - 13 minutes - 12.1 MB

Are Hollywood films ignoring women? As this is the 90th year of the Academy Awards - we find out how many ‘Best Picture’ winners pass the Bechdel Test. This is a light-hearted way of challenging whether a film meets a low standard of female representation. They have to fulfil three criteria: are there at least two named female characters in the cast? Do those two women speak to each other? And do they have a conversation about something other than a man? In collaboration with the BBC’s 100 W...

WS More or Less: The Winter Olympics

February 25, 2018 20:00 - 11 minutes - 10.1 MB

What’s the most successful nation? (0’40”) We look at population, GDP per capita and ski areas of the countries with the most medals. How do you judge a country’s ‘best’ performance? (3.45”) What are the chances of dead heat in a race? (6’35”) The two-man bobsleigh event ended in a dead heat with both Canada and Germany achieving a time of three minutes 16.86 seconds. Is this the coldest winter games? (8’41”)

WS More or Less: Debunking guide – on a postcard

February 18, 2018 12:00 - 10 minutes - 9.22 MB

How to question dubious statistics in just a few short steps.

UN rape claims, Stalin and Mr Darcy

February 16, 2018 17:29 - 28 minutes - 26 MB

How many people have UN staff raped? – (0’40’’) It was reported in a number of the newspapers this week that UN staff are responsible for 60,000 rapes in a decade. The wealth of Mr Darcy – (5’10”) The male love interest of ‘Pride and Prejudice’ is supposed to be fabulously wealthy. Is he? How many people did Stalin kill? – (10’00”) Why there are so many different figures reported. Avoid splitting the bill – (18’25”) Credit card roulette is Dan Ariely’s preferred way of ending a meal with...

WS More or Less: Has Russian Drinking Fallen by 80% in five years?

February 11, 2018 20:00 - 6 minutes - 6 MB

Alcohol consumption has fallen sharply according to Russia’s health ministry

The Dow, Tampons, Parkrun part II

February 09, 2018 18:20 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MB

Why the biggest ever fall in the Dow wasn't, and how much do women spend on tampons?

WS More or Less: Is China On Track to End Poverty by 2020?

February 05, 2018 08:00 - 13 minutes - 11.9 MB

A key pledge of the Chinese President Xi Jinping is that China will have eradicated poverty by 2020. It’s an extraordinary claim, but the country does have a good track record in improving the wealth of its citizens; the World Bank says China has contributed more than any other country to global poverty reduction. So how does China measure poverty? And is it possible for them to make sure, over the next few years, that no one falls below their poverty line? Photo: A woman tends to her niece...

Transgender Numbers, Parkrun and Snooker

February 02, 2018 19:41 - 31 minutes - 28.6 MB

How many transgender people are there in the UK? The UK produces official statistics about all sorts of things – from economic indicators to demographic data. But it turns out there are no official figures for the number of transgender people in the UK. We explore what we do know, and what is harder to measure. Do 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol? According to recent headlines, just 4% of the population drink nearly a third of the alcohol sold in England. But can s...

Is the US Census Under Threat?

January 29, 2018 11:58 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MB

The survey question that could affect the accuracy of its results. The United States are due to run their next nationwide census in 2020, but already critics are warning that underfunding and proposed question about citizenship could affect the accuracy of its results. We look at the real life consequences if groups choose not to complete the 2020 census, and ask whether the recent politically charged debate is unusual in its two hundred year history. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Kate...

A Girl's First Time, Shark's Stomachs, Prime numbers

January 26, 2018 19:45 - 23 minutes - 21.8 MB

First sexual experience - checking the facts A short film for the Draw A Line campaign has made the claim that one in three girls first sexual experience is rape. This seems shockingly high, but what is the evidence? Is it just for the UK or a global figure? We go back to the reports that were used to source the claim, and find the research has been misinterpreted. How long can a shark go for without eating? A recent episode of Blue Planet II stated that after a large meal a Sixgill shark m...

WS More or Less: Real Lives Behind the Numbers

January 22, 2018 11:57 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

If you ask an economist to explain what is happening in a country’s economy. They rely on economic data points to describe what is happening – they might talk about the unemployment rate, average wages, and the numbers of people in poverty. They pull together the information available for thousands or millions of people to work out trends. But are we getting the whole picture? We speak to Rachel Schneider, co-author of the book, ‘The Financial Diaries’. It’s based on a large study in the U...

Gender Pay Gaps and How to Learn a Language

January 19, 2018 19:22 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MB

Gender Pay Gap This week the Office for National Statistics has published analysis trying to find out why it is that on average women are paid less than men in specific industries and occupations. We examine their findings, as well as taking a look at the current discussion about equal pay at the BBC. Alcohol reaction times We take a look at a study that suggests that people's reaction speeds are affected over time by regular drinking. It recommends that official guidelines for the amount o...

WS More or Less: How Louis Bachelier Scooped Economists by Half a Century

January 15, 2018 13:31 - 9 minutes - 8.38 MB

A forgotten French mathematician is the focus of our programme. He anticipated both Einstein's theories and the application of maths to the stock market. Born in the 1870s, his work was unusual at the time. With the help of Alison Etheridge, Professor of Mathematics at the University of Oxford, we explain how his ideas were rediscovered decades after his death. (Photo: Pocket watch. Credit: Kanyapak Lim/Shutterstock)

Missed appointments, graduate pay, plus cocaine on bank notes

January 12, 2018 17:00 - 28 minutes - 25.8 MB

Did missed appointments cost the NHS £1 billion last year? New figures published recently suggest that the financial cost to the NHS for missed appointments was £1 billion last year. But our listeners are curious. How has this figure been worked out? And don’t missed appointments actually ease the pressure on an overcrowded system? Graduate pay – is it always higher than non-graduates’ pay? It is often claimed that if you go to university and get a degree, you will earn more than those who ...

WS More or Less: Just how rare is a hole-in-one?

January 07, 2018 20:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

Why it isn’t as simple to work out as you think.

More or Less: Statistics of the Year 2017

December 31, 2017 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.62 MB

Phones, lawn mowers and how Kim Kardashian helped the public understanding of risk.

WS More or Less: Will Bitcoin use more electricity than the United States?

December 24, 2017 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.85 MB

Measuring the energy used to keep the cryptocurrency secure.

WS More or Less: Diet Coke Habit; 'Contained' Wildfires

December 18, 2017 11:03 - 9 minutes - 8.9 MB

Could the US President’s Diet Coke habit affect his health? and 'contained' wildfires

WS More or Less: Does Eating Chocolate Make Your Brain Younger?

December 11, 2017 10:51 - 10 minutes - 9.48 MB

Headlines claim that eating chocolate can protect you from developing Alzheimer’s disease. The theory is that bioactives within chocolate called flavanols can help reduce the risk of heart attacks, strokes and even make your brain 30 years younger! But isn’t this all a bit too good to be true? The BBC’s Head of Statistics, Robert Cuffe, investigates whether research findings are misrepresented by funders, PR machines and the media. Presenter: Robert Cuffe Producer: Lizzy McNeill

WS More or Less: Just how lucky are regular lottery winners?

December 04, 2017 12:00 - 10 minutes - 9.22 MB

Are some people just very lucky? The maths suggest that is unlikely.

WS More or Less: How Rich was Jane Austen’s Mr Darcy?

November 26, 2017 20:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

What the Pride and Prejudice character would have earned in today’s money.

How expensive is Italy's World Cup failure?

November 17, 2017 22:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MB

The Italians are calling it the apocalypse. Their team has failed to make it to the World Cup for the first time in 60 years. But it is about more than just national pride - there is a financial cost too. Some have suggested that it will cost FIFA $100m. Is this really true? We speak to sports writer Graham Dunbar who has been counting how much money football's world governing body might lose out on. Also we fact check the claim that 45% of Nigerian women marry before their 18th birthday. Pr...

WS More or Less: Why Albums are Getting Longer

November 12, 2017 20:00 - 13 minutes - 12.2 MB

Chris Brown’s latest album is stuffed with so many songs it runs at a sprawling two hours and twenty minutes. It’s only the latest in a string of lengthy album releases that includes artists like Drake, The Weeknd and Lil B. More or Less speaks to Hugh McIntyre, a music journalist who has found out that a numerical change in the way the album charts are measured is tempting artists into making longer albums. We also talk to Marc Hogan, a senior writer at Pitchfork, about a number that is ch...

More or Less: Behind the Stats

Episodes

Guests

Books