More or Less: Behind the Stats
960 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago - ★★★★★ - 740 ratingsTim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
Vitamin D, explaining R and the 2 meter rule
May 13, 2020 08:30 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBR is one of the most important numbers of the pandemic. But what is it? And how is it estimated? We return to the topic of testing and ask again whether the governments numbers add up. As the government encourages those who can’t work at home to return to their workplaces - we’re relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of the virus. But where does the rule that people should stay 2 meters apart come from? And is Vitamin D an under-appreciated weapon in the fight against Co...
Covid-19 fatality rate
May 09, 2020 18:00 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBThe question of just how dangerous Covid-19 really is, is absolutely crucial. If a large number of those who are infected go on to die, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns that have been imposed across much of the world. If the number is smaller, for many countries the worst might already be behind us. But the frustrating thing is: we’re still not sure. So how can we work this crucial number out?
Testing truth, fatality rates, obesity risk and trampolines.
May 06, 2020 01:30 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBThe Health Minister Matt Hancock promised the UK would carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests a day by the end of April. He claims he succeeded. Did he? The question of just how dangerous the new coronavirus really is, is absolutely crucial. If it’s high, there could be dreadful consequences if we relaxed the lockdowns. So why is the fatality rate so difficult to calculate? Is it true that being obese makes Covid-19 ten times more dangerous? And whatis injuring more kids in lockdown, tram...
Climate change and birdsong
May 02, 2020 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.41 MBWith much of the world’s population staying indoors, there are fewer cars on the roads, planes in the skies and workplaces and factories open. Will this have an impact on climate change? Plus as the streets become quieter, is it just us, or have the birds begun to sing much more loudly?
Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown
April 29, 2020 08:30 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBWe continue our mission to use numbers to make sense of the world - pandemic or no pandemic. Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportionately affected by Covid-19? Was the lockdown the decisive change which caused daily deaths in the UK to start to decrease? With much of the world’s population staying indoors, we ask what impact this might have on climate change and after weeks of staring out of the window at gorgeous April sunshine, does cruel fate now doom us to a rain-drenc...
Comparing countries' coronavirus performance
April 25, 2020 18:00 - 9 minutes - 8.44 MBMany articles in the media compare countries with one another - who’s faring better or worse in the fight against coronavirus? But is this helpful - or, in fact, fair? Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander discuss the limitations that we come across when we try to compare the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths in different countries; population size, density, rates of testing and how connected the country is all play a role.
Bonus Podcast: Professor John Horton Conway
April 23, 2020 14:00 - 14 minutes - 13 MBJohn Horton Conway died in April this year at the age of 82 from Covid-19 related complications. An influential figure in mathematics, Conway’s ideas inspired generations of students around the world. We remember the man and his work with mathematician Matt Parker and Conway’s biographer Siobhan Roberts.
Comparing countries, the risk to NHS staff, and birdsong
April 22, 2020 08:30 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBWe compare Covid-19 rates around the world. Headlines say NHS staff are dying in large numbers, how bad is it? And is it just us, or have the birds started singing really loudly?
Superforecasting the Coronavirus
April 18, 2020 18:00 - 8 minutes - 8.19 MBScientific models disagree wildly as to what the course of the coronavirus pandemic might be. With epidemiologists at odds, Tim Harford asks if professional predictors, the superforecasters, can offer a different perspective. (Image: Coronovirus graphic/Getty images)
Should you wear a face mask?
April 11, 2020 18:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBDo face masks stop you getting coronavirus? You might instinctively think that covering your mouth and nose with cloth must offer protection from Covid-19. And some health authorities around the world say people should make their own masks. But expert opinion is divided. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander unpick the arguments.
Coronavirus deaths, facemasks and a potential baby boom
April 08, 2020 08:30 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBIs the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there’s any evidence that we’re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom. Plus in a break from Covid-19 reporting we ask a Nobel-prize winner how many Earth-like planets there are in existence.
Coronavirus deaths, face masks and a potential baby boom
April 08, 2020 08:30 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBIs the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London park experiencing Glastonbury levels of overcrowding this week? And after reports of condom shortages, we ask whether there’s any evidence that we’re nine months away from a lockdown-induced baby boom. Plus in a break from Covid-19 reporting we ask a Nobel-prize winner how many Earth-like planets there are in existence.
Are more men dying from coronavirus?
April 04, 2020 18:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBTim Harford and Ruth Alexander examine the statistics around the world to see if more men are dying as a result of Covid-19, and why different sexes would have different risks. Plus is it true that in the US 40% of hospitalisations were of patients aged between 20 and 50?
Supermarket stockpiling, A-level results and Covid-19 gender disparity
March 31, 2020 08:30 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBThis week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College’s epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams have vanished in a puff of social distancing. Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion, tells us about the history of epidemiology. We look at the supermarkets: how are their supply chains holding up and how much stockpiling is really going on. And is coronavirus having a different impact on men than on women?
The Risk
March 28, 2020 19:00 - 9 minutes - 8.39 MBProfessor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, puts the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. He found that the proportion of people who get infected by coronavirus, who then go on to die increases with age, and the trend matches almost exactly how our background mortality risk also goes up. Catching the disease could be like packing a year’s worth of risk into a couple of weeks. (Mathematician and Risk guru, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalte...
Coronavirus Special
March 25, 2020 15:44 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBWe’ve dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. We ask whether young people are safe from serious illness, or if statistics from hospitalisations in the US show a high proportion of patients are under 50. We try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions on businesses and movement mean for the UK’s economy, and we take a look at the my...
Mitigation or Suppression: What’s best to tackle Coronavirus?
March 21, 2020 19:00 - 9 minutes - 8.44 MBLast week, while schools and businesses across Europe closed in an attempt to halt the spread of Coronavirus the UK stood alone in a more relaxed approach to the pandemic; letting people choose whether they wanted to go to work, or socially distance themselves. This week, things have changed. Schools are closing for the foreseeable future and exams have been cancelled. The British government says their change of heart was based on the work scientists like Christl Donnelly from Imperial Colle...
The mystery of Iran’s coronavirus numbers
March 14, 2020 17:00 - 13 minutes - 12.6 MBDoes Iran have a lot more covid-19 cases that its figures suggest?
How much heat do you lose from your head?
March 09, 2020 13:07 - 9 minutes - 8.32 MBEvery winter its the same, someone will tell you to put a hat on to save your body from losing all of its heat. But how much heat do you actually lose from your head? We take you on a journey from arctic conditions to a hot tub in Canada to explain why there might actually be more than one answer... Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Leoni Robertson and Lizzy McNeill
Netflix vs the environment
February 29, 2020 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBDoes watching 30 minutes of Netflix have the same carbon footprint as driving four miles?
More or Less: Superforecasting, wood burning stoves and the real story of Hidden Figures
February 28, 2020 18:00 - 25 minutes - 23.7 MBDipping into the archive for stories on the art of prediction and wood burner pollution
Artificial (not so) Intelligence
February 22, 2020 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBArtificial Intelligence – or AI for short – is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ‘death bots’. In real life, we’re making leaps and bounds in this technology’s capabilities with satnavs, and voice assistants like Alexa and Siri making frequent appearances in our daily lives. So, should we look forward to a future of AI best friends or fear the technology becoming too intelligent. Tim Harford talks to Janelle Shane, author of the ...
WS More or Less: Coronavirus - The Numbers
February 15, 2020 16:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBA lot has changed since our last episode covering the numbers behind the coronavirus - for a start it now has a name, Covid-19. This week news has broken that deaths are 20 per cent higher than thought, and the number of cases has increased by a third. Tim Harford talks to Dr Nathalie MacDermott, a clinical lecturer at King’s College London about what we know – and what we still don’t.
Coronavirus, jam, AI and tomatoes
February 14, 2020 17:14 - 23 minutes - 21.3 MBCovid-19 stats, spreading jam far and wide, cooking with AI, and James Wong on vegetables
WS More or Less: How fast are Alligators and Hippos?
February 08, 2020 17:00 - 10 minutes - 9.31 MBWe all know that you should never smile at a crocodile, but rumour has it that alligators are great perambulators – at least that’s what a booklet about Florida’s wildlife claimed. Tim Harford speaks to John Hutchinson, Professor of evolutionary bio-mechanics to see whether he could outrun one of these reportedly rapid retiles. Also – our editor thinks he could outrun a hippo, is he right? (…probably not).
Tracking terror suspects
February 07, 2020 17:00 - 28 minutes - 26 MBCosting counter-terrorism, interrogating tomatoes, the UK's reading age, politics and GDP
WS More or Less: Coronavirus
February 01, 2020 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBThe WHO have declared a ‘Global Health Emergency’ as health officials are urgently trying to contain the spread of a new coronavirus in China and beyond; but not all the information you read is correct. We fact-check a particularly hyperbolic claim about its spread that’s been doing the rounds on social media.
Coronavirus, emotions and guns.
January 31, 2020 16:30 - 28 minutes - 26.1 MBFact checking claims about coronavirus and whether more guns equal fewer homicides.
WS More or Less: Dozy Science
January 25, 2020 19:00 - 9 minutes - 8.38 MBAnxiety around sleep is widespread. Many of us feel we don’t get enough. An army of experts has sprung up to help, and this week we test some of the claims from one of the most prominent among them: Professor Matthew Walker. He plays ball and answers some of the criticisms of his bestselling book Why We Sleep.
Netflix and Chill
January 24, 2020 17:00 - 28 minutes - 25.9 MBThe list of ways campaigners say we need to change our behaviour in response to climate change seems to grow every week. Now, streaming video is in the frame. We test the claim that watching 30 minutes of Netflix has the same carbon footprint as driving four miles. We hear scepticism about a report that sepsis is responsible for one in five deaths worldwide. Author Bill Bryson stops by with a question about guns – and gets quizzed about a number in his new book. And, how much sleep do we rea...
WS More or Less: Japan’s 99% Conviction Rate
January 18, 2020 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBThe fugitive former Nissan boss, Carlos Ghosn, has raised questions about justice in Japan. The government in Tokyo has defended its system, where 99% of prosecutions lead to conviction. Prof Colin Jones, from Doshisha Law School in Kyoto, explains what's behind this seemingly shocking statistic. And a listener asks if it’s true Canada’s is roughly the same. Toronto lawyer Kim Schofield sets them straight.
Weighing the Cost of Brexit
January 17, 2020 18:08 - 16 minutes - 14.8 MBIs it possible to calculate the cost of Brexit? Gemma Tetlow from the Institute for Government helps us weigh the arguments. How much does luck play into Liverpool FC's amazing season? And, crucially, how fast is an alligator?
WS More or Less: Bushfire mystery
January 11, 2020 19:00 - 9 minutes - 8.35 MBHave a billion animals died in Australia’s fires? And which ones are likely to survive?
Australian Animal Deaths, Carbon Emissions, Election Mystery
January 10, 2020 17:07 - 34 minutes - 32 MBTim Harford on animal deaths in Australia's fires, how many Labour voters went Conservative and are UK carbon emissions really down 40%. Plus: have we really entered a new decade?
C-sections and sharks
January 04, 2020 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBHow many women in China give birth in hospitals, and whether it was true that 50% of births there are delivered by caesarean section. Oh, and we also mention guts and bacteria… Sharks kill 12 humans a year but humans kill 11,417 sharks an hour. That’s the statistic used in a Facebook meme that’s doing the rounds. Is it true?
Presidential candidates and dementia
December 28, 2019 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBWe talk about the age of some of the frontrunners in the Democrat nomination race and President Donald Trump and the health risks they face. Also, More or Less listeners were surprised by a claim they read on the BBC website recently: “Pets are estimated to be consuming up to 20 percent of all meat globally.” So we – of course – investigated and will explain all.
The Simpsons and maths
December 20, 2019 17:37 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBWe explore the maths secrets of The Simpsons on their 30th anniversary.
Koalas
December 13, 2019 14:47 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBAs bushfires rage in Australia, the plight of the koala made front-page news around the world. There were warnings that fires wiped out 80% of the marsupial's habitat and that koalas are facing extinction. We check the claims with the help of National Geographic's Natasha Daly and Dr Christine Hosking of the University of Queensland. (A Koala receives treatment at the Koala Hospital in Port Macquarie after its rescue from a bushfire. Credit: Safeed Khan/Getty Images)
Election Special (2/2)
December 10, 2019 10:16 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBLabour's spending plans, Conservatives claims on homelessness, the SNP's education record
Tree Planting Pledges
December 06, 2019 16:09 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBThe UK General Election is fast approaching, top of the agenda are the political parties green ambitions and one particular initiative is garnering a lot of attention, tree planting. The Labour Party has the most ambitious target – a whopping 2 billion trees planted by 2040. How much land would this take, how does it stack up against other party pledges and what difference will it make? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Election Special 1/2
December 03, 2019 11:24 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MB50,000 nurses? 40 new hospitals? Big corporate tax rises? Childcare promises? Election pledges might sound good, but do they stand up to scrutiny? In the run up to the General Election on 12th December, Tim Harford takes his scalpel of truth to the inflamed appendix of misinformation. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Neal Razzell
Testing tomatoes
November 29, 2019 16:07 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBHave these saucy fruits become less healthy over time?
The world’s busiest shipping lanes
November 23, 2019 19:00 - 9 minutes - 8.56 MBA listener wrote in asking which is the busiest shipping lane in the world. Ruth Alexander tries to find out with sea traffic analyst and former captain, Amrit Singh and Jean Tournadre, a researcher that uses satellite date to ships. Producer: Darin Graham Editor: Richard Vadon Image: Freighter ships in Thessaloniki, Greece Credit: Getty Images
WS More or Less: The world’s busiest shipping lanes
November 23, 2019 19:00 - 9 minutes - 8.56 MBA listener wrote in asking which is the busiest shipping lane in the world. Ruth Alexander tries to find out with sea traffic analyst and former captain, Amrit Singh and Jean Tournadre, a researcher that uses satellite date to ships. Producer: Darin Graham Editor: Richard Vadon Image: Freighter ships in Thessaloniki, Greece Credit: Getty Images
Bolivia: Can statistics help detect electoral fraud?
November 15, 2019 17:36 - 11 minutes - 10.5 MBEvo Morales, Bolivia’s longest-serving leader and first indigenous president, stepped down last week amid weeks of protests sparked by a dispute over a recent presidential election in the country. His opponents say the election was rigged but the embattled former president said it was a cunning coup. We take a closer look at the election results and ask if statistics can tell whether it was fair or fraudulent. Dr Calla Hummel of the University of Miami and Professor Romulo Chumacero of the ...
Reducing your risk of death
November 09, 2019 19:00 - 8 minutes - 8.19 MBTwo statistics about reducing your risk of an early death made headlines around the world recently. The first seems to be a great reason to add a four-legged friend to your life. It suggests that owning a dog is tied to lowering your chance of dying early by nearly a quarter. The second statistic claims that even a minimal amount of running is linked to reducing your risk of premature death by up to 30%. Ruth Alexander finds out what’s behind these numbers and we hear from epidemiologist, ...
Unbelievable: The forgotten rape data
November 01, 2019 17:00 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBIn the United States, some police jurisdictions didn’t send off DNA evidence from people who were raped for testing in a crime lab and for uploading into a national criminal database. Instead, the sets of evidence, known as rape kits, were sat on shelves and in warehouses. It’s estimated that hundreds of thousands need processing. In this edition, Ruth Alexander explores how some jurisdictions are testing the kits now and using the data to catch criminals. Producer: Darin Graham Presente...
Edith Abbott and crime statistics
October 28, 2019 14:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBSocial worker and economist Edith Abbott and her contribution to crime statistics.
Esther Duflo and women in economics
October 18, 2019 15:02 - 20 minutes - 18.7 MBDiscussing Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer’s economics Nobel Prize.
The Extra Episode: Minimum wage, drinking in Scotland and identical twins.
October 11, 2019 13:20 - 28 minutes - 26.2 MBWe explore the numbers behind the new minimum wage announcements, whether drinking is going up or down in Scotland, the truth about squeezing people onto the Isle of Wight and how long one identical twin lives after the other twin dies. You’ll want to hear our special extra episode.