More or Less: Behind the Stats
960 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago - ★★★★★ - 740 ratingsTim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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Episodes
WS More or Less: Counting Crowds
January 27, 2017 20:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBHow many went to celebrate – and how many to protest – the Trump inauguration?
WS More or Less: Why January makes us want to scream
January 20, 2017 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.29 MBBlue Monday and Oxfam’s comparison wealth of billionaires and the poor –the stories that come around every year.
WS More or Less: Christian Martyrs
January 13, 2017 20:10 - 9 minutes - 8.27 MBWere 90,000 Christians killed because of their faith in 2016?
WS More or Less: Should we really be drinking eight glasses of water a day?
January 06, 2017 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.27 MBHow much water should you be drinking? There’s some age-old advice that suggests you should be drinking eight ounces (230 ml) eight times a day. Some people even advise you should be drinking this on top of what you normally drink. There is lots of advice out there but how do you know when you’ve had enough or if you’re drinking too much. With help from Professor Stanley Goldfarb from the University of Pennsylvania, Wesley Stephenson finds out. (Image: Hand holding a glass of water. Credit...
WS More or Less: Does Sweden Really Have a Six Hour Day?
January 03, 2017 16:34 - 9 minutes - 8.41 MBThere have been reports that those radical Swedes have decided to reduce the working day to just six hours because, it has been claimed, productivity does not suffer. Before you all rush to the Swedish job pages this is not quite the case – but there have been trials in Sweden to test whether you can shorten people’s working hours without having an effect on output. Tim Harford talks to our Swedish correspondent Keith Moore about what the trials have found. He also speaks to professor John P...
The Haber-Bosch Process
December 28, 2016 09:00 - 9 minutes - 8.61 MBSaving lives with thin air - by taking nitrogen from the air to make fertiliser
WS More or Less: Life, death and data
December 26, 2016 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.38 MBImproving data to target help to the poorest people
Christmas Quiz
December 23, 2016 17:00 - 28 minutes - 25.8 MBTim Harford poses a tough statistical challenge
WS More or Less: Yellow cards for Christmas
December 16, 2016 21:00 - 9 minutes - 8.26 MBAre footballers trying to get suspended for Christmas?
Have more famous people died this year?
December 16, 2016 17:27 - 23 minutes - 21.3 MBNotable deaths, Rule Britannia and creating your own Christmas speech
WS More or Less: How risky is the contraceptive pill?
December 12, 2016 10:35 - 9 minutes - 8.48 MBWe look at the numbers behind the scary headlines about birth control.
How wrong were the Brexit forecasts?
December 09, 2016 17:15 - 24 minutes - 22 MBThe economic doom that never was; childhood cancer figures and Ed Balls
WS More or Less: How not to test public opinion
December 02, 2016 20:10 - 9 minutes - 8.54 MBThe survey by the Indian PM that broke all the polling rules and started a mass protest
Are you related to Edward III - and Danny Dyer?
December 02, 2016 19:25 - 23 minutes - 21.8 MBWhat are the odds of being related to a medieval king? and how many cows for a fiver?
WS More or Less: Good news on renewables?
November 28, 2016 11:22 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBRenewable capacity has surpassed that of coal–is this good news? Plus an asteroid update.
Pensioners aren't poor anymore
November 25, 2016 16:51 - 24 minutes - 22.2 MBHigh-rolling pensioners? predicting Norovirus, air pollution deaths and lost or found?
WS More or Less: Avoiding Asteroids
November 21, 2016 11:58 - 9 minutes - 8.47 MBA new NASA warning system means we’re getting better at spotting Earth-bound space rocks. But how safe are we?
Is dementia the number one killer?
November 18, 2016 17:47 - 24 minutes - 22.3 MBIs dementia on the rise? Plus immigration, incomplete contacts and chocolate muffins
WS More or Less: Liberia’s Rape Statistic Debunked
November 14, 2016 15:07 - 9 minutes - 8.74 MBSexual violence was widespread in Liberia’s brutal and bloody year civil war. But were three quarters of women in the country raped? We tell the story behind the number and reveal how well-meaning efforts to expose what happened have fuelled myths and miss-leading statistics that continue to be propagated to this day, including by the UN. We speak to Amelia Hoover Green from Drexel University, Dara Cohen from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, researcher Phyllis Kimba ...
US election, stray cats and puzzles
November 11, 2016 18:30 - 24 minutes - 22.1 MBWho voted in the US elections? Plus are there nine million stray cats in the UK?
WS More or Less: Ice Cream versus aid
November 07, 2016 12:23 - 9 minutes - 8.29 MBDoes the world really spend three times as much on ice cream than on humanitarian aid?
Trump tells the Truth
November 04, 2016 17:45 - 23 minutes - 21.9 MBThe fact-checkers have been working overtime looking into the numbers used by Donald Trump during his campaign to become President of the USA. In the wake of the election next week, we take a look at some of Trump’s more outrageous statistical claims
WS More or Less: Child Marriage, Dangerous Algorithms
October 28, 2016 22:00 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBIs a girl under 15 married every seven seconds? And beware dangerous algorithms
WS More or Less: Escobar’s Cocaine Deaths
October 24, 2016 15:41 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBHow many people die for every kilo of cocaine? More Or Less investigates.
WS More or Less: Algorithms, Crime and Punishment
October 14, 2016 22:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBWhen maths can get you locked up.
WS More or Less: The Sustainable Development Goals – are there just too many?
October 07, 2016 22:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBIt’s now a year since the UN set its new Sustainable Development Goals to try to make the world a better place. They include 17 goals and a massive 169 targets on subjects like disease, education and governance. But some people like Bjorn Lomborg are saying that there’s just too many and they are too broad, and left like that will never achieve anything. Is he right – and is there a better way to make the world better and stop some countries lagging behind? Wesley Stephenson and Charlotte Mc...
WS More or Less: Who Won the US Presidential Debate?
September 30, 2016 20:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBPolling on the first TV debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump appears to be divided over who won it. But not all polls are equal. If the people being polled aren’t representative of the population at large, then their responses may not tell you anything useful. And when internet polls can be hijacked by online activists, they can throw up some pretty strange results. (Photo: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton first presidential debate. Credit: Getty Images)
WS More or Less: Trump’s crime claims
September 23, 2016 22:00 - 9 minutes - 8.29 MBThis week Donald Trump claimed that there are some inner city areas in the US which are suffering from the worst crime rates ever. They are so dangerous, he says, that Afghanistan is safer than many of these areas. But could this be true? We take a look at crime in the US and assess whether you can compare it to a conflict zone such as Afghanistan. (Image: Chicago - Neighbourhood residents watch as police investigate a homicide scene. Credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images)
WS More or Less: Wedding gift economics
September 18, 2016 03:00 - 9 minutes - 8.44 MBCan economics help us work out the perfect amount to spend on a wedding gift? Our reporter Jordan Dunbar is in a tricky situation-he’s heading to an old friend’s wedding and needs to figure out how much to give as a gift without breaking the bank. Luckily, economist Maria Kozlovskaya is on hand to talk about her findings on what factors we need to consider for gift giving, as well as preserving Jordan’s friendship and wallet.
WS More or Less: Drug deaths in the Philippines
September 12, 2016 03:00 - 9 minutes - 8.56 MBOver the last two months the Government in the Philippines has been encouraging the police to clampdown on the illegal drug trade. The new President, Rodrigo Duterte, went as far as saying that citizens could shoot and kill drug dealers who resisted arrest, and the killings of drug suspects were lawful if the police acted in self-defence. The press have been reporting numbers of how many people have been killed during the crackdown – but how much trust can we put in these figures? Lottery ...
WS More or Less: Menstrual Syncing
September 05, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.58 MBIt is a commonly held belief that if women spend enough time together, their bodies start to communicate through chemical signals, known as pheromones. Eventually the women’s bodies will start to menstruate at the same time. But where does this idea come from? And is it really true? We look at the evidence and wonder – could it be down to chance?
Irish Passports
September 02, 2016 16:15 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBBritons entitled to Irish passports After the Brexit vote in June, so many Britons applied for Irish passports that Ireland’s foreign minister had to ask them to stop – pointing out that the UK remains, for now, in the EU. If some of the figures that have been quoted are correct, the Irish passport service may find itself completely inundated in future. But does one in four Britons really have Irish heritage? We reveal the dubious history of that number and attempt to estimate the number of ...
Death Penalty abolition
August 30, 2016 08:34 - 9 minutes - 8.45 MBStatistics suggest that officially about half of the countries in the world have abolished Capital Punishment, and a further 52 have stopped its use in practice. But we tell the story behind the numbers and show why the picture is more complicated. We speak to Parvais Jabbar, co-director of the Death Penalty Project.
Gender Pay Gap
August 26, 2016 16:00 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBThe “gender pay gap” This topic has been in the news this week after the Institute for Fiscal Studies published research showing women end up 33% worse off than their male counterparts after they have children. But earlier in the summer, Fraser Nelson wrote in the Telegraph that the pay gap is “no longer an issue” for women born after 1975. Can both assessments be true? And could the label “gender pay gap” be hindering our understanding of what really lies behind the numbers? The cost of a ...
WS More or Less: Counting Terror Deaths
August 22, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.54 MBWith high profile attacks in Brussels, Nice and Munich, you might think that 2016 has been a particularly bad year for terrorism in Europe. But what happens when you put the numbers in historical context and compare them with figures for the rest of the world? More Or Less hears from Dr Erin Miller of the Global Terrorism Database and Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker. (Image: A man wrapped in a Belgian flag holds a candle as people gather at a makeshift memorial on Place de la Bou...
Counting Terror Deaths
August 19, 2016 16:20 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBIs 2016 an unusually deadly year for terrorism? In a joint investigation with BBC Newsbeat and BBC Monitoring, we’ve analysed nearly 25,000 news articles to assess whether 2016 so far has been a unusually deadly year for terrorism. It certainly feels like it. But what do the numbers say? We estimate that, between January and July this year, 892 people died in terrorist attacks in Europe – making it the most deadly first seven months of a year since 1994. But the vast majority of those death...
WS More or Less: Swimming World Records
August 15, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.61 MBWorld Records are being set at a much faster rate in swimming than in other sports. At the Rio Olympics, British swimmer Adam Peaty managed to break the men's 100m breaststroke world record twice in two days. Tim Harford speaks to swimming coach, Rick Madge, about the reasons swimmers keep getting better results in the pool. Also, science writer Christie Aschwanden makes the case for the virtues of the 5,000 metre race. She says that in recent times it has become very popular for people t...
Grammar Schools
August 12, 2016 16:11 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBIt has been reported that Prime Minister Theresa May is planning on lifting the ban on creating new grammar schools. Chris Cook, Policy Editor for Newsnight, has been looking at the evidence for whether these selective schools improve exam performance or social mobility. Swimming World Records New world records are being set in swimming at a much faster rate than other sports – but why? Tim Harford speaks to swim coach and blogger, Rick Madge about the reason swimmers keep getting better r...
WS More or Less: Predicting Olympic Medals
August 08, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.62 MBHow can we use statistics to predict how many medals each nation will win? We speak to Dr Julia Bredtmann, an economist at the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. She has come up with a model to predict how many medals each country will win, along with her colleagues, Sebastian Otten, also from the Leibniz Institute, and Carsten Crede of the University of East Anglia. Some countries like the US and China have a large population and GDP, but a number of countries do very well for th...
Plastic Bags
August 05, 2016 16:11 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBThe Government says that since the introduction of the 5p fee for single use plastic bags their use has plummeted. We take a look at the numbers. Olympic Medals at Rio 2016 The Olympic Games are with us again. So how can we use statistics to predict how many medals each nation will win? We speak to Dr Julia Bredtmann, an economist at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. Income inequality Politicians and commentators often claim that the rich are getting richer while the poor are ge...
WS More or Less: Odd Socks and Algorithms
August 01, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBHow can the techniques of computer science help us in everyday life? We speak to Brian Christian co-author of ‘Algorithms to Live by: The Computer Science of Human Decisions’. He argues that the techniques of computer science can help us manage everyday situations in a more logical and efficient manner. So which algorithm can help solve the problem of odd socks? And what is the most efficient way of alphabetising your book collection? Tim Harford investigates.
The Supermarket Effect
July 29, 2016 16:00 - 24 minutes - 22 MBMany news outlets have reported this week that a Waitrose supermarket pushes up house prices in the surrounding area. It’s based on research that also suggests that other supermarkets have a similar but smaller effect. We take a highly sceptical look at the correlation. Statistics and the EU referendum campaign We look at how the two campaigns, the media, and the much-discussed “experts” used statistics during the EU referendum campaign. Tim Harford interviews Will Moy, director of Fullfact...
WS More or Less: Ireland’s Shock GDP figures
July 22, 2016 22:00 - 9 minutes - 8.59 MBThe Irish Central Statistics Office has released figures showing that Ireland’s economy grew by 26% in 2015. That would make it the fastest growing economy in the world. But American economist Paul Krugman described this as “leprechaun economics” as this growth rate is so unrealistically high. More or Less explores how multinational companies with headquarters in Ireland have led to an accounting headache for working out the country’s GDP. Also, the mobile gaming app Pokemon Go has taken th...
WS More or Less: Violence, shootings and the police in the US
July 15, 2016 22:00 - 9 minutes - 8.56 MBProtests have spread across the United States over the last few weeks. The protestors have been registering their feelings about incidents where police have shot and killed black men. High profile recent incidents resulted in the deaths of Alton Sterling and Philando Castle, and the protestors feel that minorities are being disproportionately targeted by the police. On top of this, at a recent protest in Dallas a gunman shot and killed five police officers. But what can the numbers tell us...
WS More or Less: Sleeping: the 8-hour myth
July 08, 2016 22:00 - 9 minutes - 8.59 MBIt’s often said that we should all be aiming to get eight hours of sleep a night. But could it actually lead you to an early grave? Research shows that sleeping for longer, or shorter, than average is associated with an increased risk of disease and mortality. But what’s causing the health problems, and should you really give up the lie-in? Ruth Alexander looks at the latest sleep science with Dr Gregg Jacobs from UMASS Medical Center, US; Professor Franco Cappuccio from Warwick University, ...
Ranking Iceland’s Football Team
July 01, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.58 MBIs Iceland the best football team in the world per capita? England suffered a 2-1 defeat to Iceland in the European Football Championship in France. This was embarrassing for England when you consider its population is 163 times bigger than Iceland’s. We take a look at whether Iceland is now the best performing football team in the world if you compare UEFA ranking to the size of each country’s population. Plus, we take a look at the chances of a young man in Iceland and in England getting t...
WS More or Less: Brexit Economics
June 24, 2016 20:00 - 9 minutes - 8.47 MBFollowing a referendum, the UK has voted to leave the European Union. Tim Harford and the team explore what that might mean for the UK’s economy. Most notably - what might be the impact on trade? We examine the economic forecasts from the government, and how the UK might manage its relationships with other countries. (Image: A pay-per-view binocular with the British and European Union flags. Credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
WS More or Less: When Companies Track Your Life
June 20, 2016 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.3 MBHow are companies using our personal data? It’s a familiar concern. Online retailers are tracking us so they can sell things to us. Bricks and mortar retailers have loyalty card schemes. Our banks and credit card companies know all about us. And of course, the big computer and telecoms companies could potentially track our internet searches, our phone calls – even our location as we wander around. But this isn’t the first time that large corporations have gathered sensitive data about their ...
The Referendum by Numbers: Trade
June 17, 2016 11:55 - 11 minutes - 10.7 MBIf it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, lawmaking and regulation. But today we're looking at trade. Tim Harford asks if the UK would be better off in or out when it co...
The Referendum by Numbers: Regulation
June 16, 2016 14:08 - 11 minutes - 10.7 MBIf it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, law-making and trade. But today we're looking at EU regulation. Tim Harford asks how much red tape from the EU is costs the UK ...