More or Less: Behind the Stats
960 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago - ★★★★★ - 740 ratingsTim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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Episodes
WS MoreOrLess: Black prisoners in the US
February 28, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MBOscar-winner John Legend said that there are more black men "under correctional control" in the United States today than were in slavery in 1850. Is he right? Plus, how many Lego bricks, stacked one on top of the other, would it take to destroy the bottom brick? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Sleeping: the 8-hour myth
February 21, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBIt’s often said that we should all be aiming to get eight hours of sleep a night but could it actually lead you to an early grave? Ruth Alexander reports. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
The mathematical secrets to relationships
February 14, 2015 15:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBHow maths can help you find love, and hold on to it. Plus, we hear a collection of our listeners’ favourite statistics. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Is strenuous jogging bad for you?
February 09, 2015 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBTim Harford asks whether claims that keen runners might be damaging their health are really true? And is infidelity among cruise ship passengers rife? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Is strenuous jogging bad for you?
February 06, 2015 16:45 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBTim Harford on claims that keen runners might be damaging their health. Plus, tuition fees; affairs among cruise passengers; UK election safe seats; loyal listeners' favourite statistics.
WS MoreOrLess: The maths of dating
February 02, 2015 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBHow to use mathematics to find your life partner. Plus: what are the chances that two friends, given the same due date for their babies' birth, actually do give birth on the same day? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Cameron’s 1000 jobs
January 30, 2015 16:45 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBFact-checking the Conservatives' employment claims; the price of milk; unhappy teachers; how to use maths to find your life partner; baby due dates; teen pregnancies.
WS MoreOrLess: Global Wealth
January 26, 2015 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MBWho is in the world's wealthiest elite, and where do they live? Which are the world's best and worst board-games? Oliver Roeder, a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight, says a statistical analysis can tell us. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Is anti-Semitism widespread in the UK?
January 23, 2015 16:45 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBAre the majority of hate crimes in the UK directed against Jewish people? Plus: who are the wealthiest 1% and politicians' healthcare connections examined.
WS MoreOrLess: Are 95% of Terrorism Victims Muslim?
January 19, 2015 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBIn the wake of the Paris killings, an imam in Paris told the BBC that most terrorism victims around the world are Muslim. Is that true? Plus: The death toll of the Boko Haram attack in Baga, Nigeria. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How big are the Conservatives' planned cuts?
January 16, 2015 17:59 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBThe Conservatives' plans to achieve a budget surplus by 2019-20 have led to near universal acknowledgment that big reductions in spending would be required. However, David Cameron said this week that government spending would only need to be reduced by 1% per year. So, would Conservative cuts be big or small? Plus: are 95% of terrorism victims Muslim; Nigeria's Baga death toll; the world's best and worst board games; species decline.
WS MoreOrLess: Bad Luck and Cancer
January 12, 2015 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBMost cancers are caused by "bad luck" according to reports of a new study. But, actually, the study doesn't say that. Tim Harford finds out what the research really tells us. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
A&E waiting times
January 09, 2015 16:45 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBThe NHS in England has missed its four-hour A&E waiting time target with performance dropping to its lowest level for a decade, it's reported. Tim Harford takes a closer look at the numbers. Plus: do 85 people really own half the world's wealth; bad luck and cancer; beware the statistics which are true but unfair; and the dubious fashion for international rankings.
WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year part 3.
January 04, 2015 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.9 MBWhat is the most important number in the world? Robert Peston tells us and Helen Joyce and Dr Hannah Fry choose their most memorable numbers from 2014. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Numbers of the Year 2014.
January 02, 2015 16:45 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBTim Harford and guests look back at some of the weird and wonderful numbers of 2014. Featuring contributions from Simon Singh, Sir David Spiegelhalter, Helen Joyce, Nick Robinson, Helen Arney, Pippa Malmgren, Paul Lewis and Carlos Vilalta.
WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year part 2.
December 27, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.88 MBHow optimistic are people about the future? The BBC's Evan Davis tells More or Less as the programme looks back at the most interesting and important numbers of 2014. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year part 1.
December 20, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.88 MBWhat is so special about 39,222 Mexican teachers? In the first of three episodes looking back at 2014, Mexico specialist Professor Carlos Vilalta tells Tim Harford. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Soviet World War Deaths
December 13, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBDid almost 80% of the males born in the Soviet Union in 1923 not survive World War Two, as has been claimed online? Plus: the problem with China’s economic figures. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Zimbabwe's Economy
December 06, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBZimbabwe’s budget provided a fascinating insight into the country’s economy last week. Ben Carter looks at what the numbers mean for the future prosperity of Zimbabwe and the challenges the nation faces. The programme hears from David Blair, Chief Foreign Correspondent at The Daily Telegraph, Julian Rademeyer, director of fact checking website Africa Check and Russell Lamberti, author of When Money Destroys Nations.This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Teenage Pregnancy
November 29, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MB"About one-third of American girls become pregnant as teenagers” a recent article claimed. More or Less asks if this is true and looks at the long-term pregnancy trends in developed countries. Plus: Does 55% of communication really come from body language and gestures, 38% from facial expression and only 7% from words? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Caps off to Rooney
November 22, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBEngland captain Wayne Rooney made his 100th appearance last weekend but former England star Chris Waddle claims that it’s easier to win caps now than it was in previous generations. Wesley Stephenson asks whether Waddle is right and how many caps would greats like Bobby Moore, Maradona and Pele have won if they’d played in today’s era. Plus the programme hears from Professor Carlos Vilalta from the University of California San Diego and Steven Dudley from Insight Crime about claims that “98%...
WS MoreOrLess: Pregnancy and Homicide
November 15, 2014 06:00 - 10 minutes - 9.22 MBThe movie Gone Girl claims homicide is a leading cause of death for pregnant women. Ruth Alexander asks Dr Katherine Gold from the University of Michigan if this is true. And can we trust country rankings seen in the growing number of performance indices? We speak to the Economist’s international editor Helen Joyce. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Tracking and Tackling Ebola
November 08, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBHans Rosling, global health expert and data visionary, has just arrived in Liberia. He is working as an independent professor at the Health ministry there, as part of the team tracking and tackling Ebola. We talk to him about the latest numbers surrounding the virus. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Kidney Donation
November 01, 2014 06:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBThe chance of a successful kidney match between two unrelated people has increased significantly in the past 10 years - why? Ruth Alexander speaks to Professor Anthony Warrens, president of the British Transplantation Society. And we find out for our loyal listener how many individuals he will need to create a new race of people. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Screening for Ebola
October 25, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBAre airport screenings for Ebola really an effective way of stopping transmission of the disease? And as the United Nations asks for another $1bn (£625m) in aid we take a look at which governments and charities are rallying to the cause and which are not. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Big Data
October 18, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBBig data has been enjoying a lot of hype, with promises it will help deliver everything from increased corporate profits to better healthcare. While the potential is certainly there, Tim Harford asks if the hype is blinding us to some basic statistical lessons learned over the past two-hundred years? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Species in Decline?
October 11, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBThe coverage of the Living Planet Index and its claim that species populations have dropped 50% in the last 40 years aroused much suspicion among More Or Less listeners. The team looks at what the figure means and how it was calculated. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Will Berlin see a sub-two-hour marathon?
October 06, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.68 MBWhy is Berlin the place to break the marathon world record and how long will it be before we witness someone run it in less than two hours?
WS MoreOrLess: How do we calculate the distance to the sun?
September 29, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBTwo young listeners emailed the programme to ask how we calculate the distance to the sun. We decided to invite them and their parents to More or Less towers where Andrew Pontzen, an astrophysicist at University College London was on hand to explain the answer. A BBC nature documentary stated that there are 14,000 ants to every person on earth, and that were we to weigh all of these ants they would weigh the same as all the people. Can this be true? Tim Harford and Hannah Moore investigate w...
The Barnett Formula
September 26, 2014 16:00 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBThis week Tim explains the Barnett Formula with a bit of help from Money Box's Paul Lewis. He looks at Ed Balls sleight of hand in his speech to the Labour Party Conference. Is Ed Miliband's promise on NHS funding really worse than the funding increases delivered by Margaret Thatcher? And how do we know how far away is the sun really is?
WS MoreOrLess: The UK vs Mississippi
September 22, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBIs Britain poorer than every US state, except for Mississippi? Journalist Fraser Nelson calculates that’s the case. Tim Harford speaks to economist Chris Dillow about why he’s right. Late last year BBC Trending referred to Eritrea as ‘tiny’. Listeners complained and the complaint was upheld. More or Less talks to Trending producer Mukul Devichand and asks whether any country can rightly be called ‘tiny’.
Kidney donation: the chance of finding a match
September 19, 2014 16:01 - 28 minutes - 25.8 MBThe chance of a successful kidney match between two unrelated people has increased significantly in the past ten years - why? Tim Harford speaks to Professor Anthony Warrens, president of the British Transplantation Society. Donations to the Manchester Dogs' Home have exceeded £1m in the wake of a fire, which killed more than 50 dogs. The large sum raised caused Today presenter Justin Webb to comment that it often seems easier to raise money for animals than humans who are in need. Is it tr...
Shakespeare vs Rappers
September 15, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MBIt's a 'fact' beloved of English teachers around the world: that Shakespeare, the greatest playwright in English, also had the greatest vocabulary. But research published earlier this year suggests English teachers might have to look elsewhere to establish the superiority of the Bard - apparently his vocabulary lags behind the best and most famous rappers of the last decades. Is this comparison fair, and if so, does it diminish the Bard's lustre? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC...
Scottish referendum polls
September 12, 2014 16:00 - 28 minutes - 25.8 MBTim Harford talks to pollsters about how they are trying to gauge the political mood in Scotland, and he analyses Nigel Farage's claim that more than half of Scotland is on benefits. Plus: celebrating Countdown, the longest-running TV quiz show; quantifying malnutrition in the UK; and does the ‘Curse of Strictly Come Dancing’ really exist?
WS MoreOrLess: To ice or not to ice?
September 08, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBThe ALS ice bucket challenge has become a viral phenomenon. People around the world have been dousing themselves in ice-cold water and in the process have raised over $100m for charity. But a true nerd doesn't run with the herd, and Tim Harford is only going to do the challenge if the facts stack up. He investigates whether a viral challenge like this is good for charitable giving overall, and whether there are reasons to be more choosy about the charities we give to. This programme was firs...
To ice or not to ice?
September 05, 2014 16:30 - 28 minutes - 26 MBThe ALS ice bucket challenge viral phenomenon has raised over $100m. Is this good for charitable giving overall, and should we be more choosy about the charities we give to? Plus: is there a 'rising tide' of anti-Semitism in Europe; does Shakespeare have the largest vocabulary, or is the Bard bested by hip hop’s finest; and is the current generation of young people likely to live shorter lives than their parents?
WS MoreOrLess: Do We Use Only 10% of Our Brains?
September 01, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBIs it true that humans use just 10% of their brains? It’s the premise of the new film Lucy, in which the brain capacity of Scarlett Johansson’s character increases to dangerous levels. Tim Harford uses considerably more than 10% of his brain to separate the neuro-science facts from the fiction with Professor Sophie Scott. What drives the price of footballers? Tim Harford tries to understand the huge transfer fees with Raffaele Poli from the CIES Football Observatory and football agent S...
How Deadly Is Ebola?
August 29, 2014 15:31 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBMedia reports are suggesting that as many as 12,000 people may have Ebola in West Africa, but experts tell More or Less that's not the case. It's also said that Ebola kills up to 90% of victims, but while that's true of one outbreak, the death rate in other Ebola outbreaks has varied widely. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander
WS MoreOrLess: Deaths in Gaza
August 25, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBAs the Gaza conflict continues, the fact that there are estimated to be nearly three times as many men as women among the Palestinian civilian casualties has been an issue in the spotlight. Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander look at why men are often over-represented in civilian death tolls, and how the statistics in this conflict are being gathered. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Troubled families?
August 22, 2014 16:01 - 28 minutes - 25.6 MB"Revealed: half a million problem families" reported The Sunday Times. The government's expanding its Troubled Families programme - two years after More or Less found it statistically wanting. Tim Harford discusses the new numbers with BBC Newsnight's Chris Cook. Plus: CEO remuneration; deaths in Gaza; divorce risks and further adventures in the audio presentation of data.
WS MoreOrLess: Anti-Semitism
August 18, 2014 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MBIs anti-semitism on the rise? Ruth Alexander and James Fletcher look at the numbers, as media reports in the wake of the Gaza conflict suggest anti-semitism is a growing problem. Does the evidence support the claims? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Student Loans
August 15, 2014 15:55 - 28 minutes - 25.8 MBThe cost of the government's new student loan system is rising according to a recent report. Tim Harford investigates whether the rising costs should have been foreseen, and whether the new system will end up costing more than the old one. Plus: mobile phone goldmines in our pockets; paedophilia in the priesthood and from machine learning to deep learning.
WS MoreOrLess: Ebola
August 10, 2014 22:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBWhat do we know about how deadly the Ebola virus is, and how likely is it that there might be an outbreak of the virus in the United States or Europe?
WS MoreOrLess: Fear of Flying
August 02, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.8 MBAfter three tragic airline incidents in eight days, is flying becoming more dangerous? Wesley Stephenson looks at the statistics behind air travel to find out? And which is the most successful nation in Commonwealth Games history? Australia, Canada, England – not even close. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: The prevalence of paedophilia?
July 26, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBThe Pope was reported to have said that 2% of Catholic clergy were paedophiles. Is this a big number? Wesley Stephenson looks at the research on the prevalence of paedophilia and how the Catholic clergy compare to the world's population as a whole. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: The Tour de France
July 19, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBThe Tour de France has reached the mountains, but what does it take to be a good climber and why are the cyclists thin and bony, while sprinters are bigger with bulging muscles? And what is the best body type to win the yellow jersey? Also are 24,000 people really killed by lightning each year? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Golden Ticket
July 12, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBIn Roald Dahl’s novel "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory", Charlie Bucket wins a golden ticket to visit Willy Wonka’s factory. But one of our younger More or Less listeners in England wanted to find out what the chances would be of winning one of those Golden Tickets. So we sent maths book author Rob Eastaway to her school in Derby to explain the answer to her class-mates - a must-listen for anyone who struggles to get their head around probability. Also on the programme we look at whether t...
Will we die before our parents?
July 05, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBObesity may mean children have a shorter lifespan than their parents, it has been claimed, but is this true? Ruth Alexander looks at the data and explores the 'Obesity Paradox' – the idea that overweight people are less likely to die than those of normal weight. She also questions whether the promise of bonuses in The World Cup has improved performances. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Is this the greatest world cup ever?
June 28, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBAs we reach the end of the group stage are we really witnessing the greatest world cup ever? Ruth Alexander casts a sceptical eye over the statistics. She also takes a look at the possession stats to see if we’re seeing the death of tiki-taka with the help of Michael Cox from ZonalMarking.net. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
WS MoreOrLess: Money for nothing?
June 21, 2014 05:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBWhen it comes to aid, what works best – giving people food, shelter, medicine, or just handing over cash and letting them spend it how they like? One group of researchers went to a Kenyan village to try to answer this question and to do so they also employed a new tool - randomised controlled testing. RCTs have long been the gold standard for measuring whether medical drugs work, but could they revolutionise how we measure the impact of aid?