More or Less: Behind the Stats
960 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago - ★★★★★ - 740 ratingsTim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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Episodes
Food waste and Scrabble
January 14, 2013 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBReports this week suggest that we are wasting 50 per cent of our food globally. It comes from a study by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers in the UK. Ruth Alexander discovers why this number is out of date and is likely to be much lower than half. Also are the values on Scrabble tiles correct? They were first assigned in the 1930s. With our changing language do we need to reassess the values. We speak to Joshua Lewis, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of California, San Diego...
The Parable of the Ox
January 04, 2013 16:30 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBWhat does a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system? We find out in the Parable of the Ox written by John Kay of the Financial Times. The tale is told with the help of economics writer James Surowiecki as well as John Kay himself. It also features a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.
The Parable of the Ox
January 04, 2013 16:30 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBWhat does a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system? We find out in the Parable of the Ox written by John Kay of the Financial Times. The tale is told with the help of economics writer James Surowiecki as well as John Kay himself. It also features a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.
Numbers of 2012
December 28, 2012 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.1 MBA guide to 2012 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.
Numbers of 2012
December 28, 2012 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.1 MBA guide to 2012 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.
Gun Statistics
December 24, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBTim Harford investigates the numbers in the debate on firearms deaths, and discovers the mathematics of juggling. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Fact-checking US gun crime statistics
December 21, 2012 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBTim Harford investigates gun crime statistics in the US. Plus, why death is not always the one hard fact that’s hard to fudge; the average age of first-time buyers; whether chocolate makes you clever; the statistical paradox of road collisions caused by deer; and the maths of juggling. Producer Ruth Alexander
WS MoreOrLess: What is "rare"?
December 17, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBThis week: What is ‘rare’? When we say something is rare what do we mean? Lightning strikes which typically kill three people a year in the UK are often described as rare but how do we square that with a condition like motor neurone disease which is also described as rare yet kills 1500 people a year in the UK. Also we speak to Nassim Taleb about his book Anti-fragile.
The Census and what does 'rare' mean?
December 14, 2012 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBWhy was the estimate, in 2003, for Eastern Europeans coming to the UK so wrong? Which is better when communicating information words or numbers? Nassim Taleb explains anti-fragility And we'll debunk the oft quoted 'you're never more than 6ft from a rat'
World Service: Africa GDP & Royal twins
December 10, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBWhere does Nigeria’s plan to revise its GDP leave our understanding of growth in Sub-saharan Africa? And what is the chance of the Duchess of Cambridge having twins given she has severe morning sickness.
Radio 4: Royal Twins & Autumn Statement
December 07, 2012 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBIn light of the Royal pregnancy Tim Harford asks what severe morning sickness tells us about the chances of having twins. Yan Wong helps him look at the figures. We disentangle the Chancellor' Autumn Statement and ask: where is the economy really at? As Nigeria prepares to revise its GDP statistics with an expected jump of 40-60%, we ask how reliable are African GDP statistics? Another Daily Telegraph headline comes under scrutiny. And we return to our Lego tower and look at how Lego can ...
More or Less: How reliable is Kevin Pietersen?
December 03, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBKevin Pietersen has been widely praised as one of the best England batsmen of the current era and possibly of all time. But in the first test match he only scored 19. So can England really not do without him? Also why is Zero an even number?
More or Less: Opinion polling, Kevin Pietersen, and stacking Lego
November 30, 2012 17:00 - 24 minutes - 22 MBOn More or Less this week Tim Harford looks at three polls carried out to gauge the public’s opinion on press regulation gave vastly different answers despite being carried out by the same polling company. Tim talks to Peter Kellner, President of online polling company YouGov. Would you send Kevin Pietersen out to bat if your life depended on him scoring a century? Have two thirds of millionaires really left the country as claimed by the Daily Telegraph this week? What percentage of drinks m...
Fergie Time
November 26, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBThis is the first in the new series of the programme. There’s a well-established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?
Ash Die Back and Fergie Time
November 23, 2012 17:00 - 27 minutes - 25.2 MBThis is the first in the new series of the programme. Tim Harford has been busy felling some ash tree statistics. He asks whether the UK could lose 30% of our woodland trees and did the ash die back disease really kill 90% of ash trees in Denmark? Plus, there’s a well established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top t...
Brain Food and Bacteria
November 19, 2012 00:01 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBThere's not an obvious link between chocolate and Nobel prizes, but this did not stop news outlets around the world reporting the amount of chocolate a country consumes influences the number of Nobel prizes they will win. In many cases the scientific study was reported without question or comment. Ruth Alexander asks what this story tells us about the way the media reports scientific studies, and why the correlation between the two might be so strong. Also – it's often said that chopping b...
Voodoo polling? Predicting the US election
November 12, 2012 00:01 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBThis week Ruth Alexander looks at the other winner the US elections. Blogger and pioneer of aggregated polling, Nate Silver, predicted the outcome of the vote in every state one better than 2008. Others who have tried similar methods have also done well. Is this the dawn of a new era of poll prediction or just luck? Also, what effect did Hurricane Sandy have on death rates in places it hit and how did they differ from a normal day.
Is America’s conviction rate really 99.5%?
November 05, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.68 MBConrad Black has claimed that 99.5% of prosecution cases in America end up in convictions. Is it really this high? We try to estimate how this compares to the number of convictions in other parts of the world.
Predicting L'Aquila Earthquake: is it right to blame the scientists?
October 29, 2012 12:00 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBThis week six scientists and one ex-government official were sentenced to prison for multiple manslaughter following the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Part of the case against them was the falsely reassuring comments they made before the earthquake struck. Will this deter scientists from giving advice in the future?
Life-saving economics
October 22, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.65 MBProfessor Al Roth tells Tim Harford about the work for which he has just been awarded the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
Predicting the global population
October 15, 2012 11:00 - 8 minutes - 8.21 MBPredicting the global population: does anyone really know what’s going to happen?
Predicting the Presidency
October 08, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBNate Silver tells us who will win the 2012 US election - and how he knows.
Plenty more fish in the sea?
October 01, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBOnly 100 cod are left in the North Sea according to newspapers. Is this the most wrong headline in More or Less history?
Factchecking America
September 24, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.76 MBUS Presidential Election factchecked. Is Mitt Romney right to say that 47% of Americans pay no tax? And how many jobs has President Obama really created?
Investigating crime statistics
September 17, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBRuth Alexander investigates Sweden's high rape rate, and finds out which countries are the surprise leaders of the world kidnap league. Plus, who went home from the London 2012 Games with more medals – Olympians or Paralympians? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service
Where are the Paralympics Medals?
September 10, 2012 14:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBWhy did the USA top the gold medals league in the Olympics, but not the Paralympics? Ruth Alexander examines the performance numbers of the London 2012 Paralympic Games and discovers which countries are punching above their weight, and which below. And Yan Wong tries to calculate how many opening bars are possible in music. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
How to explain infinity to a 4-year-old
September 03, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.77 MB‘What’s the number before infinity?’ asks Claudia, aged 4. We challenge Johnny Ball, legendary British TV presenter, to explain. And in celebration of the voice of Sesame Street’s Count von Count, Jerry Nelson, who’s died aged 78, there’s another chance to hear our 2009 interview with the Count, in which he revealed his favourite number: 34,969. Presented by Ruth Alexander, this programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Are African leaders more likely to die in office?
August 27, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.73 MBThe Prime Minister of Ethiopia is the fourth African premier to die this year alone. Are African leaders more likely to die in office, than their counterparts elsewhere? Also: does marriage make economic sense?
Levelling the statistical playing field
August 20, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.79 MBGiven that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.
The great playing field sell off?
August 17, 2012 15:30 - 27 minutes - 25.2 MBGiven that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.
How to lose money - fast!
August 10, 2012 15:30 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBLast week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?
How to lose money - fast!
August 10, 2012 15:30 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBLast week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?
How extraordinary is Ye Shiwen? WS
August 04, 2012 22:50 - 9 minutes - 8.83 MBThere was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.
How extraordinary is Ye Shiwen?
August 03, 2012 15:36 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBThere was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.
Gun laws and gold medals (WS)
July 28, 2012 22:50 - 9 minutes - 8.82 MBLast week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not surprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?
Gun laws and gold medals
July 27, 2012 15:35 - 27 minutes - 25.5 MBLast week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not suprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?
Has clamping down on drugs made the Tour de France slower? (WS)
July 21, 2012 22:50 - 9 minutes - 8.83 MBThe Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?
Has clamping down on drugs made the Tour de France slower?
July 20, 2012 15:35 - 27 minutes - 25.3 MBThe Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?
Who are the Libor losers?
July 14, 2012 10:24 - 27 minutes - 25.2 MBHow much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? And we investigate the claim made by a leading charity that a million British children are "starving".
More or Less: Who are the Libor losers? (WS)
July 14, 2012 10:15 - 9 minutes - 8.85 MBHow much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? After all, most financial trades are two way bets – and for every winner, there is a loser.
Drinks and drugs capital of the world? (WS)
July 06, 2012 22:50 - 9 minutes - 8.68 MBDo residents of the tiny micronesian island of Palau really smoke more cannabis, and drink more beer, than anyone else?
Hit movies and killer birthdays (WS)
June 29, 2012 22:55 - 9 minutes - 9 MBWhat is the highest-earning film ever if you adjust for inflation? And are birthdays killing us?
(WS) Weight of the world
June 23, 2012 22:50 - 9 minutes - 9.03 MBHow fat could the global population become? Plus, Angela Saini considers whether statistics could settle the disputed result of the world title fight between boxers Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
(WS) Chance encounters
June 18, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.91 MBIs the likelihood of bumping into your boss on holiday greater than you think? Angela Saini and the More or Less team assess the probabilities of some of life's great coincidences. This edition of More or Less was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Interview with Daniel Kahneman
June 11, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 9.02 MBTim Harford interviews Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics. The author of Thinking, Fast and Slow describes the common mistakes people make with statistics.
Counting images of The Queen. (WS)
June 04, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 9.06 MBHow many images of Queen Elizabeth II have ever been created? And is Facebook really worth more than twice as much as every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange?
Would firing staff 'at will' work? (R4)
May 28, 2012 11:00 - 24 minutes - 22.1 MBIs there any evidence to support the Beecroft Review's recommended changes to employment law? Plus: hard-working Greeks, infidelity, and Ben Goldacre on publication bias.
The maths of infidelity (WS)
May 25, 2012 10:50 - 9 minutes - 9.02 MBIt’s a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible? And we answer a cry for help from an Australian listener who wants to be “a bit more average”.
Where are the world hardest workers? (WS)
May 21, 2012 11:00 - 9 minutes - 8.56 MBEarlier in the year we found out that Greeks put in more working hours than Germans. But the Germans are more efficient. So that got us thinking: who works the longest hours in the world?
Troubled families and unneutered cats. (R4)
May 17, 2012 23:15 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBTroubled families, nursing numbers and the mathematical consequences of unneutered cats.