Hotspotting
626 episodes - English - Latest episode: 5 days ago -Prepare to embark on an exciting journey into the realm of hot property markets with Terry Ryder and Tim Graham! Terry & Tim from Hotspotting, are dedicated to providing the most accurate and unbiased research to help investors make informed decisions on where to buy. The Hotspotting Podcast brings you the latest data, trends, and market statistics, along with in-depth discussions on growth areas and the larger factors impacting Australia's property landscape.
Terry & Tim regularly feature special guests from around Australia to share their industry insights and expertise to help investors cut through the noise.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or a first-time buyer, this show is a must-listen for anyone looking to build their knowledge and make smarter investment choices. Terry Ryder, with over 35 years of experience as a specialist researcher and writer in residential property, offers expert insights that are completely independent and free from outside influences. Tim Graham has been a buyers agent and mortgage broker for over 13 years along with working in real estate all over the world.
Join us on the Hotspotting Podcast and discover the hottest opportunities in the Australian property market today!
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Episodes
Why We Think Property Prices Will Rise in 2023
October 29, 2022 21:00 - 6 minutes - 5.78 MBMany of the economists making forecasts about property are claiming that house prices will fall next year, but I’m convinced prices overall will rise in 2023. Those economists, I should point out, are the usual suspects who have terrible track records in forecasting real estate outcomes, partly or largely because they think that interest rates are the only factor in play. It’s kindergarten analysis by the same people who early in 2020 forecast a property crash and what we got instead was...
The RBA is NOT predicting house prices to plummet
October 28, 2022 21:00 - 4 minutes - 4.3 MBYou can be forgiven for believing that the Reserve Bank of Australia is expecting, and is predicting, that our house prices will drop 20%. After all, that’s what media is telling us, constantly, of late. Many news media outlets have stated, categorically, that the RBA has forecast a 20% drop in prices. In fact, many journalists have gone a step forward and stated that house prices WILL fall 20% - without any possibility of it not happening – because the Reserve Bank says so. But here...
Federal Budget Solution Won't Solve Housing Crisis
October 27, 2022 08:26 - 6 minutes - 5.76 MBThere have been big headlines around Australian in the wake of the new Federal Government’s first Budget. They’re going to build a million new homes in five years to solve the housing shortage crisis. There’s been widespread – although not universal – applause, because it looks and sounds great at first glance. And, as you can imagine, the organisations that represent builders and developers are expressing considerable glee. No surprise there – it sounds like a windfall for them. But...
The Top End Is Dragging The Market Down
October 17, 2022 21:00 - 4 minutes - 3.75 MBIt’s easy to get the impression that prices are falling everywhere, because media provides very shallow and generalised analysis of what’s happening in property markets. When you dig a little deeper and look behind the generalised figures, you find that there are markets within markets. And the reality right now is that the Top End of our big city markets is the sector that is falling – and it’s dragging down the general median price figures for Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, creating t...
Why Prices Will Rise
October 12, 2022 21:00 - 3 minutes - 3.49 MBMy prediction for real estate prices in the next 12 months is very different to the ones being published by mainstream media. While there are forecasts from the usual suspects – mostly economists with poor track records in forecasting – that prices will fall 15% or 20%, my prediction is that property prices will rise in the next 12 months. For a long time now there has been a serious disconnect between what’s happening in real estate markets in Australia and what mainstream media says is...
Adelaide Continues To Shine
October 12, 2022 00:08 - 3 minutes - 3.62 MBWhile much of the mainstream media commentary on the property market focuses on the highs and lows of the big capital cities, it’s Australia’s smaller capital cities which have really shone in the past two years – and they continue to do so. Adelaide, in particular, is one of those shining stars. Overall, Adelaide is a story of continuing high sales activity and on-going price growth, remaining generally one of the strongest markets in the country. Our recent analysis of sales volumes ...
The Exodus To Affordable Lifestyle Pre-dates Covid
October 05, 2022 21:00 - 5 minutes - 4.92 MBAs Covid lockdowns become a distant memory and life seems to be getting back to some level of normal, many in the media have begun to speculate that the trend I call the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend will come to an end. They believe that employers will demand staff return to offices, and that living and working remotely will became a thing of the past as everyone moves back to the cities and suburbs. They won’t. And the reason they won’t is that the Exodus to Affordable Lifesty...
Real Estate Thrives On Disruption
October 05, 2022 01:00 - 3 minutes - 3.22 MBAs a research analyst on Australian housing markets, and a strong advocate of residential real estate as an investment, I always feel more optimistic when we are in periods of economic disruption – as we are right now. Recent share market collapses have reinforced once again the relative safety of bricks and mortar - and provided a reminder that real estate often thrives in times of widespread economic disruption. Recently Australian shares dropped to their lowest levels in months. Altho...
Property Prices Are NOT Driven By Interest Rates
September 27, 2022 21:00 - 5 minutes - 4.87 MBHere’s what passes for analysis in Australian real estate: if Event A coincides with Event B, then Event A must have caused Event B. This is what I call kindergarten analysis and we get a lot of it in the housing market. It ignores the reality that there is also Event C, D, E , F and G taking place – and some of those may have had an influence on causing Event A. The worst example of this shallow analysis is playing out in mainstream media every day at the moment. Event A is rising i...
Affordability Drives Demand
September 23, 2022 05:42 - 4 minutes - 3.87 MBProperty markets are always evolving and reacting to changes in the economic climate – and the biggest trend currently evident across Australia is that buyers increasing are chasing affordability. In most of our capital cities, it’s the affordable suburbs where buyer demand continues to be strong. And, at the same time, investors continue to buy in affordable regional locations that offer higher yields to compensate for rising interest rates. Our quarterly analysis of sales activity for ...
Growth Markets Remain Across the Country
September 18, 2022 22:00 - 4 minutes - 4.35 MBThere’s a lot of media speculation around about the downturn in what economists call “the Australian property market”, with doomsday predictions for house prices - but when you look at the actual data, that’s far from the reality. There continue to be growth markets right across the country, as well as some which have been in decline since last year For the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index report, we analysed thousands of housing markets throughout Australia to determine the pat...
It Pays Not To Generalise
September 16, 2022 01:46 - 5 minutes - 4.6 MBThe greatest source of misinformation about real estate – and the scourge of consumers trying to figure out what’s happening in markets across Australia – is generalisation. And by that I mean, economists and other commentators speaking about Australia as a single market or about a major city as if there is just one scenario happening across the entire metropolitan area. The Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index depicts a number of important instances where it pays NOT to generalis...
How The Rental Crisis Evolved
September 04, 2022 22:00 - 8 minutes - 7.96 MBThe nationwide rental shortage crisis may appear to be a Covid phenomenon, but it’s something many in the property investment arena saw building for a long time. Years of constant changes to real estate investment regulations and taxes have pushed many investors out of the market, with the current shortage of properties for tenants the result.
Politicians Are To Blame For Housing Woes
September 02, 2022 22:00 - 5 minutes - 5.19 MBAll the core problems confronting the housing market can be blamed on politicians. Whether it’s the housing affordability issue, the rental shortage or builders going broke in the middle of a construction boom, the short-sighted decisions of politicians are the underlying cause.
Who Do You Believe?
September 02, 2022 05:06 - 10 minutes - 9.61 MBMedia, economists and banks love to predict disasters for the property market - but it's astounding how consistently they are wrong. Here are some (incorrect) predictions from the last couple of years.
How To Choose High-Yield Properties
September 01, 2022 22:00 - 3 minutes - 3.15 MBRight now, many property investors are seeking locations with above average rental yields. Buying properties that offer a positive cashflow situation is always a good idea, in my view, provided the location has the credentials for long-term growth. But now more and more investors are looking for superior rental yields – because interest rates are rising, and may rise further. Finding those positive cashflow scenarios has become harder, not only because borrowing costs are rising, but a...
Most Market Jurisdictions Still Have Rising Prices
August 27, 2022 22:00 - 4 minutes - 4.49 MBReal estate markets across Australia remain busy, with solid price outcomes, with a couple of notable exceptions. While media headlines have suggested that market decline and falling prices are widespread, our research shows this is not the case. Our latest quarterly analysis of sales activity shows that most capital cities and most major regional markets continue to deliver busy markets with little evidence of price decline. Our examination of all the price data that’s available from ...
Opportunity Beckons for Smart Investors
August 24, 2022 06:24 - 1 hour - 57.6 MBNow is a time of rare opportunity for investors who have the ability to think and act independently. After several years of highly competitive markets and stellar price growth, the air has cleared for investors seeking strategic opportunities. While prices are still growing in many key markets across Australia, the frenzy has eased in most locations. Investors can buy well without the heat of intense competition. This occurs at a time when vacancies are at record lows and rental increases ar...
Politicians Appear Unaware of Rental Crisis
August 19, 2022 02:39 - 4 minutes - 4.54 MBI am increasingly astounded by the lack of awareness by the nation’s politicians of the greatest issue in the housing market today – the rental shortage crisis. AND the way state and federal politicians are making decisions almost daily which will make the situation even worse. At the recent federal election, there was no discussion about the dire shortage of places for renters to live and none of the major parties put forward any policies to deal with it. I think it’s safe to assume t...
Melbourne Shows Resilience And Strength Against Negative Forces
August 19, 2022 02:09 - 6 minutes - 6.09 MBRumours of the death of the Melbourne market have been greatly exaggerated. While media is full of feverish headlines and soundbites about falling demand and collapsing prices, our research proves it simply isn’t so. The Melbourne market is renowned for its resilience in tough times and our latest quarterly survey has confirmed it, with busy sales activity and solid price outcomes – particularly in the cheaper markets. Our Spring 2022 quarterly survey has found 193 suburbs with persist...
Credible analysts refute doomsday forecasts
August 15, 2022 22:00 - 8 minutes - 7.77 MBCredible analysts, increasingly, are making forecasts for Australian property prices which contradict the sensationalist and alarmist predictions we have seen from media in recent months. More and more sensible commentators are suggesting that any post-boom correction in residential property prices will be moderate and that many locations will continue to deliver solid growth. They are also commenting that the general media theme that rising interest rates cause property markets to colla...
The Strong Resurgence Of Regional Victoria Markets Continues
August 14, 2022 22:00 - 5 minutes - 4.03 MBRegional Victoria is “the market that refuses to give up”. Regional Victoria has been a national leader of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and continues to draw residents out of Melbourne. The key regional cities of Victoria have been notable growth markets for the past 4-5 years – but, amid all the disruption that’s currently afflicting real estate markets, they keep on keeping on. The strong sales activity seen in the March Quarter continued in the June Quarter, despite risi...
Queensland Govt Land Tax Grab
August 11, 2022 02:54 - 7 minutes - 5.8 MBInvestors who own properties in Queensland as well as other states are set to be slugged with massive land tax bills following the introduction of a new tax regime in Queensland. New legislation was passed on June 24, which allows the Queensland Government to include the value of investment properties owned in other states when working out how much land tax to charge on Queensland properties. Now, this is outrageous and I’m surprised it’s even legal, but the State Government in Queenslan...
Rental Shortage Is The True Crisis
August 05, 2022 21:00 - 5 minutes - 5.58 MBWhile media obsesses over speculation about property prices, a far bigger issue for residential property is the extraordinary shortage of rental properties. I have been researching real estate for 40 years and I have never seen rental markets so tight in so many places. Vacancies have been low for years but they keep falling and now all eight capital cities are well below 2%, with six of them between 0.4% and 0.8%. The national average is below 1%. “Crisis” is an overused word in media...
Perth Is Now One Of The Nation’s Stand-out Growth Markets
August 05, 2022 04:41 - 4 minutes - 4.22 MBPerth is now a nation-leading market, showing strong resistance to downturn pressures as it maintains high levels of sales activity and good price growth. In contrast to trends in the biggest cities, Perth has delivered strong levels of sales volumes in the latest quarter, despite all the disruption from interest rate rises, high inflation figures and all that ridiculously negative media.
Sport Will Power The Infrastructure Boom Over Next 10 Years
August 01, 2022 23:56 - 4 minutes - 3.4 MBOver the next ten years Australia is going to be THE focus of world attention for anyone with an interest in sport. Between now and 2032 Australia will be hosting a series of sporting events of global significance – and, while it may not be immediately apparent, this has very major consequences for real estate investment. Let me explain what I mean. Firstly, here’s the line-up of global sporting events that will happening in Australia over the next 10 years:- 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup...
Brisbane's Property Market Future Is Strong.
July 23, 2022 06:02 - 5 minutes - 5.42 MBBrisbane and SEQ lead the nation on population growth from internal migration – and there is a major infrastructure spend under way, with big ticket projects totalling around $30 billion under construction. And there is more to come, because Brisbane and SEQ needs to invest in infrastructure to get ready for the 2032 Olympics. This means that, while there will be ups and downs along the way, Brisbane will be a growth market for the next 10 years at least.
Should I Delay Buying?
July 22, 2022 05:55 - 6 minutes - 5.71 MBOne of the most common investor questions at the moment is “Should I delay buying because prices might fall?” This, I have to say, is the reaction of someone who has little knowledge, does little or no research, and simply reacts to media soundbites. As I’ve often said in the past, the first thing real estate consumers need to do, is … tune out all that media white noise, avoid that constant source of negativity and misinformation, and base your decisions on research and common sens...
Rising Rents Give Security to Investors
July 15, 2022 22:00 - 4 minutes - 4 MBWhile a lot of the discussion about the property market is focused on potential price drops and rising interest rates, the most important information for investors at the moment relates to vacancy rates and rents. Rising rents mean most investors are well placed to cover any additional costs as a result of higher interest rates, because the rate of rental increases in the past 12 months has been exceptional. This - coupled with the fact that most borrowers are well ahead on their repayme...
How Politicians have Created The Rental Shortage And Continue To Make It Worse
July 14, 2022 22:00 - 4 minutes - 4.44 MBThe rental crisis throughout Australia is receiving a lot of media air time at the moment. And that means many politicians are determined to be the person or party credited with finding a solution to the problem. That’s a big concern for me, because every time politicians meddle with property markets with the excuse of providing a solution to things like housing affordability or the rental shortage, they generally make the problem worse.
Census Reveals Home Ownership Data
July 13, 2022 22:00 - 5 minutes - 4.73 MBAt long last, we’re seeing the results of the 2021 Census being published by the ABS and there are some surprises on real estate matters. Most people, I suspect, would have expected home ownership rates in Australia to have fallen over the five years since the previous Census – but they’ve actually improved a little. In fact, there’s been little change in the rate of home ownership in the past 25 years. This is perhaps a surprise given the constant steam of articles in mainstream media...
Australians Suffering From Doom Fatigue
July 12, 2022 22:00 - 4 minutes - 4.02 MBWhile economists and media commentators are going out of their way to spread gloom about property prices, it appears most consumers have managed to tune out all that media white noise. A colleague of mine describes it as “Doom Fatigue” and I think that encapsulates the public mood at the moment. Australians are suffering from Doom Fatigue not just about the property market, but after years of the news bulletins being dominated by Covid, natural disasters and war in Europe, they just don’...
Regional QLD Continues to Shine
July 11, 2022 23:32 - 6 minutes - 4.54 MBMarkets across Regional Queensland are operating at a high level, although some of the former stars like the Sunshine Coast are fading. Our latest quarterly survey has classified 177 locations as rising or consistency markets, which maintains the high levels we have recorded over the past 18 months. This means that, despite less vibrancy in major markets like the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, Regional Queensland continues to present numerous strong property markets with high levels of s...
Property Strong Amid Uncertainty
July 06, 2022 01:25 - 4 minutes - 4.4 MBMany economists and media commentators are desperate to be the first to call the end of the boom and to predict that property prices will crash. That’s why we’ve had widespread claims that the property boom is over, at different times, since the beginning of the last year – only to be proven wrong in each case by the publication of subsequent data. As soon as there is any uncertainty or disruption in the Australian economy or the world, the doomsday forecasters come out of the woodwork t...
Affordable Locations Lead Growth
June 26, 2022 21:00 - 4 minutes - 4.28 MBA recurring theme in many markets around the nation is that the local growth leaders are the more affordable locations. Our new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index shows that Sydney overall is down, but many of its cheaper areas still have good demand. Perth is buoyant, led by the affordable precincts. It’s a similar story in Brisbane and Adelaide, with very strong buyer demand in the more affordable areas in particular. And in Melbourne, where the millionaire precincts have ...
Key States For Property Investment in 2022
June 24, 2022 02:07 - 5 minutes - 5.56 MBWe’ve just published the new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index and it shows that Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia are the key places where real estate consumers should be focusing their attention. While this Winter 2022 survey of sales activity across Australia shows a marked decline in the Sydney market, we have identified Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide as the capital cities where sales activity remains strong and prices are tipped to keep rising. The regional a...
Avoiding Media Misinformation
June 24, 2022 02:02 - 6 minutes - 5.68 MBIf you’re someone who wants to understand what’s really going on in real estate markets around Australia, here’s the key thing you have to do: When data on the property market is published, get a copy of the actual report. Don’t read what the media says is in the report. Get a copy of the report itself. In most cases, the reports – from research entities like Domain, SQM Research and CoreLogic - are free and easily accessible. And when you look at the data in many of the reports on p...
Consumers Reject Negative Headlines
June 21, 2022 08:35 - 4 minutes - 3.07 MBDespite daily media articles declaring that property prices are set to fall 15% or 20% or more, most Australians don’t believe it. That’s according to the latest Finder Consumer Sentiment Tracker. The Finder survey sought people’s views of what they expect to happen with house prices in the next 12 months - and very few, it seems, are expecting prices to fall. Even in Sydney and Melbourne, where economists and commentators have declared prices to be falling already, only about 20% ...
Using Sales Activity To Predict Price Growth
June 21, 2022 01:00 - 6 minutes - 5.94 MBAn easy way to see where future property price growth is going to occur – or not occur - is to look at transaction numbers. When sales numbers lift, it means competition for properties is increasing, and what generally flows from that is price growth. Sales activity numbers are a great forward indicator of what will happen with prices and is actually a much better barometer of what is about to happen in the market than looking at median house price data. The figures on changes in media...
Brisbane Airbnb move just a cash grab
June 16, 2022 07:21 - 5 minutes - 4 MBOne of the skills Australian politicians have mastered over the years is finding ways to raise ever more revenue from the housing industry, but pretending that any new measures they’re introducing are actually motivated by a desire to fix housing affordability or a housing shortage. The latest shameless exercise by a government entity to do this has come from the Brisbane City Council, which rules over a large chunk of the Brisbane metropolitan area. The Brisbane council, headed by Lord...
The Exodus To Affordable Lifestyle - Its here to stay.
June 12, 2022 11:50 - 3 minutes - 3.17 MBMedia keeps telling us that the trend I call the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle was caused by Covid and that once the pandemic is dealt with the trend will reverse and everyone will move back to the big cities. Well, they certainly got that wrong. The trend of people leaving the big cities and moving to the regions, or the smaller cities, has been under way for a long time. This trend is not about the pandemic – it’s about technology allowing people to work remotely and it’s about access...
Understanding Price Data Differences
June 10, 2022 00:57 - 5 minutes - 5.18 MBWith so many organisations analysing the property market, it can be hard to determine just who has the right reading on what is happening with prices across Australia. And there is the distinct possibility that none of them is correct. I recently did an online search for the median house price for a particular suburb and came up with six different figures from six different data sources. The difference between the highest and lowest figures was more than $100,000 – the lowest was $628,...
Adelaide Leads Capital City Australia On Sales And Price Growth
June 02, 2022 11:47 - 3 minutes - 3.58 MBThe Adelaide market continues to operate at unprecedented levels and right now is arguably the busiest and most competitive market in capital city Australia. It presents an attractive proposition for investors:- - It remains one of the most affordable cities in the nation, - its prices are growing faster than any other capital city, - it has the lowest vacancy rate, and - its rental growth is leading the nation. Our new edition of Top 5 Adelaide Hotspots reveals the markets within th...
Housing Affordability Remains a Hot Topic
May 21, 2022 06:00 - 2 minutes - 2.61 MBAfter 18 months of stellar price growth pretty much everywhere in Australia, affordability is more of an issue now than ever before. And, as we head towards the Federal Election, it’s clear that the problem isn’t going to be solved any time soon, because none of the major parties have policies that will make the cost of housing cheaper. There are policies that may make it easier for young buyers to get a loan to buy an expensive house or apartment, but nothing to address the high costs of ...
Vacancy Rates Improve By A Miniscule Amount
May 20, 2022 06:15 - 3 minutes - 3.01 MBFor the first time in a long time, there has been an improvement in residential vacancies in Australia. But the change is miniscule. The national vacancy rate, according to SQM Research, increased from 1% in March to 1.1% in April – which means that there continues to be a chronic shortage of residential rental properties around Australia. What this means, of course, is that there is tremendous upward pressure on rents.
Regional NSW Continues To Perform Extremely Well
May 15, 2022 22:00 - 4 minutes - 3.94 MBWhile a lot of media attention is focused on what is or isn’t happening with Sydney property prices, other parts of New South Wales continue to perform extremely well. Late last year, along with the comparison website Canstar, I analysed the price growth prospects in all the major markets across Australia – the 8 capital cities and 6 state regional markets.I used a range of different metrics to determine the markets with the best prospects for price growth in 2022. Of all those 14 market ...
Sydney Market Switches Focus To More Affordable Products
May 13, 2022 06:42 - 4 minutes - 4.08 MBSignificant changes have occurred in the Sydney property market in the early part of 2022, with a weakening at the top end of the market and a re-focus on locations and dwelling types that offer better affordability. Most notable is the shift in focus to more affordable suburbs for houses and also an uplift in demand for locations with apartments at attractive prices. There is strong buyer demand in precincts where houses are typically available in the price range from $900,000 to $1.5 m...
What Impact Will Interest Rates Have On House Prices?
May 05, 2022 06:16 - 6 minutes - 5.78 MBHere’s an interesting fact: if history repeats itself, rising interest rates will mean that property prices also will rise, not fall. In fact, if recent history does repeat, house prices will double during an extended period of multiple interest rate rises.
What's Happening in the Sydney Market?
May 05, 2022 06:13 - 5 minutes - 4.89 MBThe Sydney market represents an opportunity for investors right now because the evidence suggests it’s less competitive than in 2021, so it’s becoming easier to buy well. And vacancy rates are dropping fast and rents are rising, a situation that will be enhanced by the re-opening of international borders and the return of overseas migrants and students. Let’s look at the background … Sydney is the one capital city in Australia where there is some evidence that its property market has pas...
Property Prices Falling? Actually No .... for the most part
May 05, 2022 05:53 - 4 minutes - 3.92 MBThe key message for Australians interested in what’s REALLY going on in property markets across the nation is this: Don’t believe everything you read about how Australian property prices are faring at the moment. In fact, I would go so far as to say: don’t believe ANYTHING you read about property prices across Australia. You may have seen a lot of commentary about how prices are already on the way down across Australia – but, for the most part, that is simply NOT the case.