FiveThirtyEight Politics
695 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 19.5K ratingsThe 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson'
May 13, 2021 21:00 - 43 minutesToday, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." - In her first-ever di...
If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does?
May 10, 2021 22:07 - 49 minutesWhat role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior
May 06, 2021 23:41 - 46 minutesThe crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas
May 03, 2021 22:52 - 1 hourThe crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Biden's First 100 Days
April 29, 2021 22:22 - 58 minutesThe crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority
April 26, 2021 22:28 - 51 minutesThe crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics.
April 22, 2021 20:05 - 49 minutesGalen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay
April 19, 2021 22:24 - 1 hourThe idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer
April 15, 2021 19:22 - 34 minutesWe look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan
April 12, 2021 23:06 - 1 hourThe crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last?
April 08, 2021 20:02 - 43 minutesGalen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan?
April 05, 2021 23:08 - 1 hourThe crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Elections To Watch In 2021
April 01, 2021 21:30 - 47 minutesThe crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy
March 29, 2021 22:11 - 52 minutesThe crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed
March 25, 2021 22:36 - 51 minutesNate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically
March 22, 2021 22:28 - 49 minutesThe crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics
March 18, 2021 21:57 - 43 minutesPerry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects?
March 15, 2021 22:07 - 56 minutesThe crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020?
March 11, 2021 21:28 - 50 minutesWith the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear
March 09, 2021 00:38 - 57 minutesThe crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics
March 04, 2021 22:27 - 44 minutesThis installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBS’s recent documentary series “The Black Church." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP?
March 01, 2021 22:21 - 50 minutesThe crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs
February 25, 2021 23:50 - 31 minutesMember of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular
February 23, 2021 00:02 - 55 minutesThe team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. Lea...
How The Crisis In Texas Happened
February 18, 2021 21:03 - 35 minutesTexas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. ...
Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump
February 16, 2021 23:51 - 56 minutesNevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial r...
The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument
February 12, 2021 02:54 - 33 minutesWhile it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do
February 08, 2021 23:24 - 56 minutesTia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Could The GOP's Future Look Like?
February 04, 2021 21:14 - 1 hourGalen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Biden's Response To The Pandemic
February 01, 2021 23:13 - 53 minutesKaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Final Model Talk Of 2020
January 28, 2021 22:08 - 34 minutesNate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another
January 25, 2021 23:23 - 54 minutesAmelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Biden Presidency Begins
January 20, 2021 21:31 - 36 minutesOn the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?
January 19, 2021 22:54 - 58 minutesThis is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment
January 14, 2021 01:13 - 34 minutesOn Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Led To The Attack On The Capitol
January 12, 2021 00:11 - 1 hourThe crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Will The GOP Do Now?
January 07, 2021 01:30 - 42 minutesThe team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia
January 04, 2021 22:15 - 50 minutesThe Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Goodbye To 2020
December 28, 2020 23:53 - 1 hourIn 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States
December 22, 2020 00:25 - 1 hourThe crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?
December 17, 2020 19:20 - 47 minutesCarlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results
December 14, 2020 23:29 - 1 hourThe two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What's The Deal With Pardons?
December 10, 2020 22:51 - 39 minutesGalen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP
December 09, 2020 00:09 - 53 minutesThe November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How To Make Polls Better
December 04, 2020 00:44 - 1 hourGalen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?
November 30, 2020 23:53 - 54 minutesThe crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy
November 23, 2020 23:26 - 52 minutesThree weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will Georgia Stay Blue?
November 19, 2020 20:46 - 33 minutesGalen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Divided The Electorate In 2020
November 16, 2020 23:14 - 46 minutesThe crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad
November 12, 2020 22:09 - 46 minutesIn this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices