FiveThirtyEight Politics
695 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 19.5K ratingsThe 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
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Episodes
How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election
July 03, 2023 18:22 - 53 minutesThe Supreme Court wrapped up its business for the term last week, closing out a docket that touched on the Voting Rights Act, affirmative action in university admissions, student loan forgiveness, business services to LGBTQ people, religious liberty and the power of state legislatures. It was another term with high-profile cases, coursing through the heart of some of America’s cultural debates. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses whether this year’s decision could ricochet ...
What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?
June 26, 2023 22:06 - 1 hourIt's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, business services to LGBTQ people and the power of state legislatures. In this installment of the podcast, we take a look at what various public opinion polls have found on affirmative action and ask whether it's a good or bad use of polling. We ...
Are Millennials Getting More Conservative?
June 19, 2023 17:19 - 1 hourThere’s been a lot thrown at Republican voters over the past few weeks. The field of primary candidates has doubled; the leading contender in the primary was federally indicted on 37 counts related to his handling of classified documents and alleged obstruction of justice; and a contest that had remained largely deferential to Trump has gotten more testy. In this installment of the podcast, pollster Kristen Soltis-Anderson and Washington Post data columnist David Byler join Galen to look at h...
How Trump's Classified Documents Case Could End
June 13, 2023 22:57 - 47 minutesFormer President Donald Trump was arraigned on Tuesday at a federal courthouse in Miami in relation to his alleged retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice. He pleaded not guilty, setting in motion a trial that could potentially run in tandem with his campaign for president. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with law professor and legal analyst Kate Shaw about how the case will proceed and what the possible outcomes are. Learn more about your ad choice...
Emergency Podcast: Trump's Indictment, The Sequel
June 09, 2023 18:31 - 44 minutesFormer President Donald Trump was indicted on federal charges on Thursday related to classified documents he took from the White House. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the severity and possible political implications of the charges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The GOP Field Gets Crowded
June 05, 2023 22:46 - 59 minutesBy the end of this week, the number of major candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is expected to grow to nine. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are all expected to jump into the race this week. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses how these candidates might shape the race. Also, the Republican National Committee announced the date and criteria for the first primary debate last F...
There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now
May 30, 2023 21:40 - 1 hourIn this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what’s in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up contradictory and what could happen if the legislation isn’t passed by next Monday. They also discuss the significant increase in laws involving sexuality and gender in Republican-led states and what Americans think about them. And Galen speaks with senior writer Monica Potts about her new book, "The Forgotten Girls." Learn more about your ad choic...
The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis
May 25, 2023 17:37 - 41 minutesFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening remarks, he stressed his electability and the ability to implement a policy platform that may not look all that different from that of former President Donald Trump. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what DeSantis's presidential bi...
Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?
May 22, 2023 21:44 - 59 minutesThe FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a reality this week. And, according to the Treasury Department we are just a week or so away from a possible default on the nation’s debt. National politics reporter at the AP Meg Kinnard and Data Columnist at the Washington Pos...
Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?
May 18, 2023 20:43 - 56 minutesSince 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model to determine ...
Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel
May 15, 2023 21:12 - 59 minutesOn Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the state of those three races. They also speak with YouGov's Linley Sanders about a new poll showing that Democrats broadly trust news outlets more than Republicans, including even some right-leaning news outlets. And the...
How Immigration Shapes American Politics
May 11, 2023 16:07 - 33 minutesTitle 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at record highs and Americans give President Biden some of his lowest ratings on his handling of immigration. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Georgetown economics professor Anna Maria Mayda about what Americans think of immigration and why, its impac...
Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?
May 08, 2023 20:49 - 49 minutesKing Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers aren’t great, but in some ways that's beside the point. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks if polling non-democratic institutions is a good use of polling. They also look at a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Biden in a v...
How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live
May 04, 2023 19:36 - 42 minutesFor decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that it’s only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. However, as he writes in his new book...
Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024
May 01, 2023 22:36 - 1 hourPresident Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring. They also discuss last week's decision from the North Carolina Supreme Court, clearing the way for partisan gerrymandering in the state. And they ask whether Americans can be trusted to reliably tell pollsters which high school cliques they belonged...
Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans?
April 24, 2023 21:45 - 46 minutesCongress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of money as early as June. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the latest developments and what Americans think about it all. They also dig into ne...
Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!
April 21, 2023 16:25 - 1 hourThe FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-th...
The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion
April 17, 2023 21:16 - 56 minutesThe Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. It means that for now the status quo stands, but in this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about where things could go from here. They also discuss South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s pitch to Republican voters after the launch of his exploratory committee for ...
Americans Are Feeling Better These Days
April 13, 2023 19:12 - 37 minutesAccording to Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were lonely “a lot of the day yesterday,” down from a pandemic high of 25 percent. Galen Druke speaks with director of the National Health and Well-Being Index, Dan Witters, to get an understanding of what American life satisfaction looks like today. Learn more about your ad choice...
The Politics Of AI
April 10, 2023 22:17 - 1 hourHow concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use of polling? In this installment, the crew discuss how reflective of public opinion a recent poll on AI was and why politicians have been slow to regulate it. They also turn their attention to the recent expulsion of two Tennessee lawmakers from the state House and a ruling from a ...
The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday
April 05, 2023 18:37 - 43 minutesTuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the country’s purplest states and its third-largest city. In Wisconsin, voters chose the liberal state Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz by a double-digit margin, flipping the ideological orientation of the court. And in Chicago, voters chose progressive Bran...
Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023
April 03, 2023 21:25 - 50 minutesThe crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last week's indictment. Also on Tuesday, voters will head to the polls to decide the balance of power on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the next mayor of Chicago. The crew also discusses former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson's entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted
March 31, 2023 15:37 - 21 minutesIn this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart
March 30, 2023 19:59 - 49 minutesIn our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year FiveThirtyEight is tracking what that looks like -- what legislation is being proposed and passed and how Republicans and Democrats are going about things differently. In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at new proposals on gun...
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)
March 27, 2023 21:25 - 46 minutesAfter breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about one of America’s favorite musicians: Is this a good or bad use of polling? Then they take a hard turn back into electoral politics, with the question: Who do Democrats want the GOP nominee to be, and what does that tell us about how they’re thinking ab...
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?
March 23, 2023 20:26 - 52 minutesAll eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldn’t be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and don’t know about Trump’s legal jeopardy and the possible political...
The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back
March 20, 2023 21:52 - 45 minutesThe crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census
March 16, 2023 19:00 - 55 minutesThe U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998
March 13, 2023 20:41 - 1 hourPolling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm
March 09, 2023 20:21 - 50 minutesGalen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Poll That Ended Dilbert
March 06, 2023 23:00 - 1 hourAuthor Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger? They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the natio...
Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'
March 02, 2023 20:57 - 44 minutesAmerican government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis,” New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over th...
How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear
February 27, 2023 22:14 - 1 hourTo mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book “Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.” James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they describe why the war has not turn...
What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection
February 21, 2023 22:35 - 57 minutesIt's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?
February 16, 2023 20:28 - 42 minutesThis week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted
February 13, 2023 22:59 - 57 minutesThe U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. We’re still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. They also ask whether the Republican Party can...
Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech
February 08, 2023 19:39 - 48 minutesPresident Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did
February 06, 2023 22:58 - 1 hourIn this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Politics Of Loneliness
February 02, 2023 20:14 - 51 minutesAmericans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political...
There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023
January 31, 2023 00:09 - 1 hourAlthough much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing.
January 26, 2023 20:53 - 40 minutesIn his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today — politically, economically, culturally — have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. Galen speaks with him. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common
January 23, 2023 23:12 - 1 hourThe crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santos’s career might unfold. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy
January 17, 2023 22:54 - 54 minutesOver the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right?
January 12, 2023 20:41 - 34 minutesAs we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the final episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP
January 09, 2023 23:02 - 58 minutesThe crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santos’s scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident
December 26, 2022 11:00 - 35 minutesHappy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the first episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump
December 22, 2022 22:51 - 49 minutesAs the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms
December 19, 2022 22:22 - 40 minutesEditor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?
December 15, 2022 20:08 - 57 minutesAs the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022
December 12, 2022 22:48 - 1 hourWith midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices