FiveThirtyEight Politics
695 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 19.5K ratingsThe 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
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Episodes
How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff
December 07, 2022 17:32 - 39 minutesThe crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race
December 05, 2022 22:21 - 56 minutesGalen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is Democracy All Good Now?
December 01, 2022 22:15 - 33 minutesGalen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will?
November 28, 2022 22:41 - 1 hourElection Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How The '90s Shaped Today's GOP
November 21, 2022 11:00 - 56 minutesGalen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?
November 16, 2022 23:10 - 33 minutesGalen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022
November 14, 2022 21:23 - 1 hourGalen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate
November 10, 2022 21:59 - 54 minutesTwo days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what they’ve learned from this election so far. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Red Wave Didn't Happen
November 09, 2022 06:34 - 17 minutesIn this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still don’t know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. But that doesn’t stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didn’t make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. Learn more about your...
The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk
November 07, 2022 22:01 - 49 minutesHours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters’ performance this cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending
November 04, 2022 17:02 - 51 minutesThe crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?
November 02, 2022 20:26 - 56 minutesRecent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of “Model Talk." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge
October 31, 2022 22:08 - 55 minutesWith one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk
October 27, 2022 22:39 - 1 hourIn this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next month’s midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How A College Education Divides American Voters
October 24, 2022 22:01 - 1 hourThe crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs!
October 20, 2022 21:16 - 52 minutesGalen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value — but also shouldn't undercut the poll. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022
October 17, 2022 22:24 - 59 minutesThe team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit mega...
Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?
October 13, 2022 20:15 - 51 minutesNate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms?
October 10, 2022 22:50 - 1 hourIt’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit meg...
Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters?
October 06, 2022 21:15 - 40 minutesThe crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats?
October 03, 2022 22:04 - 59 minutesThe crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress
September 29, 2022 21:53 - 56 minutesNate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats
September 26, 2022 22:00 - 58 minutesThe crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is Social Media Turning Us Into Political Extremists?
September 22, 2022 22:32 - 59 minutesMax Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?
September 19, 2022 21:56 - 1 hourThe crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls
September 15, 2022 19:32 - 55 minutesIn this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval?
September 12, 2022 22:26 - 1 hourThe crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What To Expect Between Now And Election Day
September 06, 2022 22:51 - 1 hourLabor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Sarah Palin Lost
September 01, 2022 21:23 - 43 minutesDemocrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics?
August 29, 2022 22:11 - 1 hourThe crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision. Finally, they analyze why Biden’s approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble
August 24, 2022 21:27 - 46 minutesDemocrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them
August 22, 2022 21:55 - 1 hourWhat happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trump’s actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind o...
What Liz Cheney Might Do Next
August 17, 2022 22:43 - 43 minutesTuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?
August 15, 2022 10:00 - 52 minutesIn recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans. Learn more about your ad c...
Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle
August 10, 2022 21:45 - 44 minutesThe crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?
August 08, 2022 21:56 - 59 minutesThe crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion
August 03, 2022 22:10 - 50 minutesThe crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
All The Political News You Missed Last Week
August 01, 2022 22:10 - 1 hourThe crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again)
July 25, 2022 10:00 - 1 hourIn this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.
July 19, 2022 00:45 - 1 hourNate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?
July 14, 2022 21:43 - 53 minutesIn the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, “Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power,” and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visi...
The Supreme Court Episode
July 11, 2022 22:07 - 1 hourWith the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?
July 05, 2022 22:07 - 56 minutesThe crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!
June 30, 2022 14:00 - 40 minutesThe FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now
June 28, 2022 00:27 - 1 hourThe crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade
June 24, 2022 19:02 - 32 minutesLegal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?
June 21, 2022 20:55 - 1 hourThe crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley
June 15, 2022 21:16 - 33 minutesRepublican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?
June 13, 2022 21:53 - 1 hourThe crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?
June 08, 2022 20:58 - 41 minutesThe crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices