Broken Pie Chart
275 episodes - English - Latest episode: 29 days ago - ★★★★★ - 16 ratingsThe Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
Nasdaq 100 Index Strong First Half Equals Strong Second Half? | Overbought or not? | Trying to Guess the Forward PE Multiple Is Hard!
July 03, 2023 22:29 - 48 minutes - 44.6 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli comment on Bloomberg’s article showing the Nasdaq 100 Index just had its best 1st half since the early nineties. Is the market overbought or rightly valued and trending? Do investors who missed the rally say it’s overbought because they need it to go back down? Looking at how markets do when they are up big in the first half of the year. Plus, Jay and Derek go back over some predictions from December to see how right or wrong they were. Fin...
Fear and Greed Index | Volatility Surface | Put Call Ratio | Wall Street Gets Bullish | Homebuilders Surprise
June 26, 2023 13:29 - 41 minutes - 38.4 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli talk about CNN’s Fear and Greed Index and whether it’s a good indicator for markets. Then they explore differences in Put Call Ratios and how they may not measure what people think. Plus, they look at the volatility surface across different option maturities noting how low near-term options implied volatilities have gotten indicating there is no fear. Once again, they comment on how the VIX is NOT broken! Later they discuss investment banks...
Bear Market Rally or New Bull? |The Fed Talks Tough but Does Nothing | PE Like its 1995
June 18, 2023 15:13 - 50 minutes - 46.3 MBJay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss Jay Powell’s tough talking but no action Fed. Plus, is this a repeat of the 1994-1995 forward PE expansion bull market? Also, they go back to the 200-2002 bear market where the Nasdaq 100 had 7 different 20% bear market rallies and the S&P 500 had its own share. Is this different? Finally, Jay and Derek look at instances where the S&P 500 made new highs with only 5% of the companies also making 52-week highs and the subsequent future histo...
Fund Flows into Tech go Parabolic | Was Everyone Wrong on International Markets? | Auto Dealership Profits
June 11, 2023 16:37 - 34 minutes - 31.8 MBDerek Moore and Mike Puck from ZEGA Financial discuss how unlike what all the “experts” thought, international stocks have done quite well, and Europe’s economy held up. They look back at how long US large cap has outperformed international developed country markets. Then they look at some sector flows and note the parabolic nature of the chart into the tech sector. Plus, they talk about US Equity Factors through very early June comparing growth, value, high beta, and low volatility performa...
Cheaper to Rent than Buy? | Beneish-M Score Near Market Highs? | Top 10 Market Cap Companies by Decade | VIX Level Makes Multiyear Low
June 04, 2023 19:01 - 51 minutes - 47.3 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli explore data showing its cheaper to rent vs. buying a home in all but 3 markets. Then they bring up the WSJ article saying companies are “juicing” earnings evidenced by the Beneish-M score and historically whether a high M-score predated market tops. Later they look at how the top 10 market cap weighted companies have changed over the decades and why this supports buying indexes (but being hedged!). Finally, the VIX did something it hasn’t ...
AI Is the New Crypto & Blockchain Post Nvidia Earnings | Reach for Long Duration Bonds | More Fed Rate Increases Coming? | 7% Treasury Bills?
May 28, 2023 18:34 - 47 minutes - 43 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli have a lively discussion on whether AI is supplanting Crypto and Blockchain as the new thing. Then they point out fund flows going to long duration treasury (and 3x triple leveraged Treasury ETF) and why? Later we discussed the new increase in probabilities for more Fed interest rate hikes. Finally, Nvidia broke out after beating earnings and revenue expectations and a massive rise in expectations. Of course, they make some recommendations....
AI Driving Market Returns? | Size of Top 2 S&P 500 Stocks Now 15%? | Relative Performance of Tech vs S&P 500 Index at Extreme Levels
May 21, 2023 17:09 - 43 minutes - 39.5 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli do it again. That’s right they talk about AI but this time around how it may be driving Mega Cap Tech performance relative to the rest of the market. Plus, the weight of the top 2 S&P 500 companies is the highest since 1978 and the top 10 companies weighting is now 30%. They debate whether this is nothing or something. Finally, they discuss the LEI Leading Economic Indicator declining for 13 straight months without a “declared” recession ye...
US Default Chances Overblown? | Option & Bond Markets Not Showing Fear | Chat GPT AI Research 1979 US Debt Default | Short Sale Ban?
May 14, 2023 14:17 - 57 minutes - 52.2 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli discuss whether the option markets via Volatility Indexes are underrating potential market turmoil. Plus, they debate whether fears of the US defaulting on Treasury Bonds is Overrated? Using ChatGPT AI to research the 1979 US Treasury default. Then they talk through what they are seeing in the options market including variances between implied volatility between different places on the volatility surface. Finally, before some recommendation...
Dividend Deep Dive | ChatGPT AI Fed Research | Do Markets Go Up After Fed Pauses?
May 07, 2023 16:59 - 1 hour - 58.7 MBJay Pestrichelli is back on with Derek Moore where they do a deep dive into dividends. There are a lot of misconceptions around things like total return vs price return, ex-dates, payable dates, record date and more. Plus, they look at an example ETF before noting that there seems to be a movement of young investors focusing on dividend paying stocks to generate income. Finally, Jay and Derek talk about the Fed interest rate decision and even task ChatGPT AI to pull some research on what hap...
ChatGPT Investment Advice? | Too Much Money Causing 1m/3m T-bill Spread?
April 30, 2023 17:16 - 31 minutes - 29.1 MBDerek Moore poses some investment questions to ChatGPT, is it helpful? Instances where ChatGPT is wrong. Then, looking at the bulk of Q1 2023 earnings releases and what we’ve learned. Were analysts too bearish? Finally, Derek delves into the below the surface aspects of 1 month T-Bills yields so much less than 2- and 3-month T-Bills. Even less than the Fed Funds rate. Derek’s theory is with the increase in cash flowing to money markets, and levels of Overnight Reverse Repos not increasing, t...
Weird Bond Yield Stuff Happening | New 1 Day VIX Index?
April 22, 2023 16:53 - 44 minutes - 41 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss the CBOE launching a new 1 Day VIX Index and what it means in relation to the viability of the traditional VIX Index. Plus, they note that 1 month treasury bill yields are far below the 3 month which is odd when looking historically at the relationship. Hint, it has something to do with money market funds and the Fed Overnight Reverse Repos. Then they discuss the decline in the money supply but when put into context, is it r...
Debt Ceiling Risk | Recession Signals | 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion
April 16, 2023 17:19 - 56 minutes - 52 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss Cam Harvey’s 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion and its track record. What it has meant and can mean going forward. Looking at the Real Retail Sales importance for predicting recessions. What various Fed members and Jamie Dimon say about where interest rates are going. Plus, what is going on with wages and how real wage growth may or may not give the Fed cover to raise more. Then, they discuss banks going to the discount window and ...
Can The Fed Fail? | Q1 Winners Surprise the Crowd
April 09, 2023 12:16 - 43 minutes - 39.9 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA’s Mike Puck are paired once again to talk about markets and the economy. They discussed how Q1 asset class winners and losers weren’t what many thought coming into the quarter. They also talk about correlations, or how different asset classes and sectors have been more correlated over the last 12 months and what that means for portfolios. The lack of high yield debt coming due and how that keeps company’s interest costs down given they refinanced already. Finally, they c...
One Thing No One Ever Talks About within the S&P 500 Index | FANG Stocks 1 Rest of Market 0
April 06, 2023 16:41 - 46 minutes - 42.7 MBDerek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back together to debate the dollar, markets, earnings, and more. Plus, they discuss one aspect of S&P 500 Index estimates that no one ever talks about. Then, MSFT, META, AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN have driven all the YTD gains in the S&P 500 Index compared to the rest of the market. Finally, they discuss whether the market is still keying off the US Dollar level, S&P 500 profit margins, and more. US Dollar still wagging the tail of the stock mar...
Fed Tightening and Easing All at Once? | How Wrong Were Analysts on Earnings?
March 26, 2023 10:02 - 44 minutes - 41 MBZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli rejoins Derek Moore to talk Jay Powell and the Fed seemingly tightening and loosening all at once. They raised rates, but then increased the size of their balance sheet through the SVB (and other) bank bailouts. Then, observing the deep discounts, some REIT etfs are currently trading to NAV and what that infers. Also, Hindenburg research (a short seller) put out negative research on Block (Square). The role of short-selling firms and noting the high stock-based com...
Is Warren Buffett Right on Stock Buybacks? Bank Failures and the FDIC
March 18, 2023 20:48 - 52 minutes - 48.1 MBDerek Moore is back with Mick Puck to discuss the Warren Buffett quote excoriating opponents to share buybacks. Why buybacks and dividends are more closely related than you think. Using Walmart to explain how the change in shares outstanding affect EPS. Where to see share repurchases and dividends on a company’s cash flow statement. Plus, our quick overview of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) debacle and what the FDIC’s list of troubled banks at the end of 2022 told as (if anything) about the 3...
Sequence of Recessions & Slowdowns | Dividends Make a Comeback?
March 12, 2023 16:23 - 41 minutes - 37.8 MBJay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, joins Derek Moore again to discuss markets going higher even when earnings decline post bear markets. Plus, they discuss Michael Kantro’s HOPE graph showing the order of slowing in the economy through the lens of Housing, New Orders, Profits, and Employment. Then they move on to the drivers of returns talking through PE multiples, margins, revenues, buybacks, and dividends. Speaking of dividends, are they going to be the next big thing if investors be...
US Debt Bomb & Interest Rates | Brewing Auto Loan Problem for Consumers?
March 05, 2023 17:31 - 35 minutes - 32.7 MBJay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, joins Derek Moore again to discuss whether this current bear market is tracing the 2000/2001 bear market. Plus, they highlight how tight yield spreads are looking at what the 3-month treasury bill/ 2-year treasury note are yielding compared to high yield and investment grade bonds. Then Jay and Derek go through the looming US debt bomb in regard to where interest payments might go and whether there will be political pressure for the Fed to keep rates ...
Underperformance of International Stocks | Valuations Still Too High?
February 26, 2023 17:11 - 47 minutes - 43.6 MBDerek Moore is back with Mike Puck, Director of Business Development at ZEGA Financial to talk underperformance of international stocks and how “everyone” is saying this is the year that trend gets reversed. Mike shares what people were talking about at the Miami ETF Conference around flows into international funds to start the year. Plus, they talk about what investors give up if they rotate out of S&P 500 US type investments and how you might already have international exposure in large US...
No Volmageddon 2.0 | No Landing for the Economy?
February 19, 2023 17:04 - 50 minutes - 46.4 MBDerek Moore is back with ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to discuss recent discussion on 0 DTE (zero days to expiration) options and potential for a new Volmageddon event due to them. Then, they again get into The Fed and the idea of hard landing, soft landing, or no landing (that’s a new one). Plus, they discuss some odds and ends within markets and the economy including some chart crimes, shipping container rates, next 12 month returns ONCE a bear market bottom is in, and why US Invest...
Now Everyone Is Bullish? | Shocking Impact of Missing Just the 2 Best Days Each Year
February 12, 2023 20:07 - 44 minutes - 40.6 MBDerek Moore is back with ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to discuss how AFTER the market ran up in January people are bullish according to the new AAII Individual Investor survey. Plus, updated numbers on the difference in hypothetical returns if you missed ONLY the 2 best day each year over a 10 or 20-year period. Then, we continue to get economic data that is telling different stories so what to believe? Then they give some recommendations. AAII Sentiment Poll Bulls minus Bea...
Scenario No One Is Talking About | Bond Spreads Above Fed Funds Smallest Since 2007
February 05, 2023 21:19 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBDerek Moore is back to talk about the one thing no one seems to think is a possibility with interest rates. Plus, why the tightening of the triple BBB corporate bond spreads above 3-month Treasury Bills and Fed Funds is something to watch for markets. Then, Derek explains the 4 stock market scenarios people are watching. Disconnect between market expectations and the Fed Spread between corporate bonds and treasuries narrows BBB Corporate bond spread to Fed Funds smallest since ...
Are We Already In a Recession? | Markets Are Smarter Than Everyone | Picking Stocks Is Really Hard!
January 29, 2023 18:07 - 47 minutes - 43.1 MBDerek Moore and Mike Puck discuss the upcoming Fed meeting and whether rates will stick around at higher levels for a while despite general estimates for lower rates in the back half of 2023 and early 2024. Mixed signals in the labor market as tech announces layoffs while other companies point to hiring. Why it’s tough to pick individual stocks using Tesla as an example. Does the Fed still want bad things to happen in the economy? Watch the Fed press conference Tech stocks see gain...
Max Bearish? | Earnings Declines Don’t Mean Falling Stocks?
January 23, 2023 11:52 - 39 minutes - 36.5 MBJay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial and Derek Moore are back to talk Netflix earnings, why earnings declines don’t necessarily mean falling stock prices, wide bid ask spread in housing, and volatility dropping in the currency and fixed income markets. Plus, the AAII investor survey points to record lows in bullish sentiment. Why margins are being overlooked in earnings estimates. Finally, is Japan an unknown, unknown and Derek (without any knowledge) predicts Amazon buys AMC and Apple b...
Value vs. Growth | Dividends Historically 40% of S&P 500 Total Returns
January 15, 2023 15:49 - 38 minutes - 35.1 MBDerek and Mike Puck, ZEGA Director of Business Development, discuss whether Value will have a period of outperforming Growth. How Value and Growth have experienced long regimes where one outperforms another. Where we are in the current cycle. Plus, how dividends historically have accounted for 40% of total returns in the S&P 500 Index. What makes a stock a “value stock”? Growth vs Value historically How growth has outperformed value for extended period of time Are we about to swi...
Yield Curve Inversion False Signal? | Competing Economic Data Points | About to Get Earnings Tsunami
January 08, 2023 10:46 - 42 minutes - 38.7 MBJay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial and Derek are back to talk about how there is conflicting bullish and bearish data in the economy. Jobs data vs manufacturing tells a different story. Plus, digging into the labor force participation rate conundrum. This week Campbell Harvey who came up with the 3 month over 10 year treasury yield curve inversion indicator said despite being right every time on recessions, this time may be different. Cambell Harvey yield curve inversion signals f...
Will We Have a New All-time High in Markets? | T-bills Outperform Equities?
January 04, 2023 04:11 - 22 minutes - 20.4 MBDerek is back with the first show of 2023. On this week’s episode, looking at successive negative market years frequency and returns by decade. Hint, we’re still positive decade to date by more than you think. Plus, examining frequency of T bills outperforming the S&P 500 Index. Review S&P 500 Index market returns by decade How frequent do markets have succussive down years? How can T-bills outperform the S&P 500 Index? Decade to date is still positive by more than people thi...
2023 Predictions | Markets and the Economy
December 22, 2022 22:45 - 57 minutes - 52.7 MBJay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, is on a special 200th episode of the Broken Pie Chart Podcast to go over their predictions for 2023. Will we have a recession? What will the earnings be? What will be the highs, lows, and year end 2023 10 year yield, S&P 500 Index, gold, bitcoin, oil, fed funds rate, and more. Off course these should not be traded on, but instead hear some of our thought process in arriving at these numbers. Plus, as always, some recommendations. 2022 Saw 91...
1994-95 All Over Again in Markets?
December 21, 2022 12:16 - 19 minutes - 17.5 MBWhat’s the saying, history doesn’t repeat itself but often rhymes? In 1994 the Fed was raising rates all the way through the Feb 1995 meeting. How does that period compare to now? And does that mean we are in for a repeat of markets? Derek Moore explores that period and makes some comparisons. 1994 Fed interest rate hikes 1994-95 interest rate cycle and market returns The 1995 Fed pivot When did markets turn higher? Hint it’s before the last rate hike. Curious reasons Fed b...
Enough Fed Pivot Talk!
December 12, 2022 14:00 - 47 minutes - 43.6 MBEvery time you tune into CNBC you hear predictions about when the recession will hit. Then, when the Fed will pivot. But are people focused on the wrong things? Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss markets, earnings, and why the contrarian take is everyone can’t be right. Plus, the more the yield curve inverts, the harder it will be for a recession to arrive in 2023. 2023 Earnings EPS scenarios review Forward P/E ratios and where multiples will be Why the market...
Bearish Wall Street 2023 Targets | Fed Wants You To Lose Your Job?
December 06, 2022 12:17 - 24 minutes - 22.4 MBLast week the payroll and unemployment numbers came out. They surprised to the upside but does the Fed really want people to lose their jobs? How are the unemployment numbers calculated? And an under the radar demographic trend on working age population. Plus, the 2023-year end S&P 500 Index targets are coming out and they are bearish! What are investment banks 2023-year end S&P 500 Index price targets? How do the 2023 targets compare to last year’s year end 2022 targets? How w...
M2 Money Supply Shrinking vs Inflation | Money Velocity Irrelevant?
November 30, 2022 13:58 - 21 minutes - 19.9 MBLast week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. Is that really a big deal given 2020 record 25% growth followed by 2021 12% growth? Then, why velocity of money may not mean anything for inflation after all. What is the M2 money supply? What is the M1 money supply? Comparing M2 vs M1 money supply Discussing massive increase in money supply in 2020-2021 First ever decline in money supply in 2022? Review historical increa...
FTX Crypto Debacle | Yield Curve Inversion | Enough with Recession Talk
November 20, 2022 15:23 - 44 minutes - 40.7 MBJay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, is back with Derek this week where they talk FTX bankruptcy and whether it means the end for crypto? Then they discuss the 3-month treasury bond yield inverting with the 10-year treasury bond. Yes, every time that has happened there have been recessions, so what about this time? Earnings continue to be the thing to watch. A quick game of who is right after the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast is showing 4.3% growth compared to a measly 0.5% current estimate fo...
Crypto Crash | US Dollar Is The Thing To Watch
November 13, 2022 15:42 - 21 minutes - 19.3 MBDerek gives his thoughts on the FTX crypto collapse and bankruptcy. Why crypto are NOT currencies. Then, why everyone should be paying attention to the US Dollar. Why the US Dollar is so important for multi-national companies and their revenues. How those revenues are impacted when the dollar is strong (or weak). Then finally a check in on the Fed Funds probabilities for future rate hikes. Why crypto currencies have failed to be currencies How some crypto returns seem too good to be ...
Capitulation: Markets Tend to Lead the Economy
November 06, 2022 14:03 - 52 minutes - 47.9 MBDerek is joined again by ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli to discuss what market capitulation looks like and are we there yet? Plus, how markets tend to turn up prior to the economy bottoming historically. Before some recommendations they discuss why the VIX isn’t higher and what the VIX curve is telling us now and in the past. What is market capitulation? Historical examples of markets bottoming months ahead of the economy Are markets smarter than the economy? The VIX futures curve...
Midterm Elections and the Markets
October 30, 2022 15:09 - 55 minutes - 50.6 MBDerek is joined by Spencer Wright of Halbert Wealth to discuss historical impact on markets Plus, they discuss the house, senate, and the prevailing polls and other indicators to sift through the noise. Finally, they give their picks in the 5 senate races that matter. Market performance post midterm elections since 1962 Why markets might like split government What the polls and adjusted polls are saying What the past tells us about likelihood of change of power in the house d...
Federal Reserve Going Bankrupt?
October 23, 2022 15:10 - 24 minutes - 22 MBThe Fed is paying out more in interest than it is taking in, resulting in an IOU to the US Treasury. Is this a big deal? Did the Fed believe this was possible? Understand why you may see in the news the Federal Reserve is running a deficit. Plus, is the Treasury about to do bond buybacks to increase liquidity in markets? What is a Federal Reserve deferred asset liability How much of a deficit is the Fed running? Why is the Fed paying out more in liabilities than its receiving i...
Open Letter to the Fed
October 17, 2022 13:36 - 51 minutes - 46.9 MBThe Federal Reserve shows no sign of slowing down rate hikes in the near term. But are they doing anything? ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli is back on the show with Derek Moore to debate. Plus, why we care about England’s BOE moves. Finally, some recommendations. What is the deal with the UK’s pensions and government bonds? Is the Fed doing it all wrong? Container shipping rates back to normal? The waiting is over at the Port of LA Inflation run rates and what we need to happen ...
Where Do Returns Come From?
October 07, 2022 14:02 - 20 minutes - 18.8 MBAs Q3 earnings season is about to kick off we’ll look at what the drivers of returns are for the S&P 500 Index and individual stocks. Annualized returns are a mix of sales growth, margin growth, dividends, share count, and PE multiple growth. See how to think about these levers in relation to price. What are the return attributions of the S&P 500 Index returns? PE multiple growth vs multiple contraction How share buybacks or issuance increase or decrease earnings Dividend yie...
Higher Rates Create Opportunity for Hedging
September 29, 2022 11:22 - 39 minutes - 35.8 MBThe rise of interest rates has been all over the news, but is there a silver lining? Yes, due to higher rates in short-term US treasuries hedged equity strategies now can further manage risk by substituting out short duration high yield to short term treasuries. ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli and Derek Moore are back to explain how a flagship strategy Buy and Hedge is leveraging the new environment. What are Buy and Hedge strategies? Comparing the risk profile of short-term ...
Nobody Knows Anything
September 25, 2022 09:10 - 24 minutes - 22.4 MBDoes anyone who makes predictions in the financial news media know anything? Lots of headlines are making predictions so why not add some perspective from past bear markets (and bull markets) where many things’ people say never came true. Why investors make bad decisions due to news. How investors opt to stay in cash even as markets firm up. We’ll go through some past predictions to see how the mood sways at different points in cycles. What the financial media is saying New esti...
Inflation Head Fake?
September 18, 2022 15:08 - 20 minutes - 18.8 MBInflation surprised to the upside last week. Although it was close to the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast estimate. So, what would it take for inflation to get back to the 2% level and when? We’ll go through the numbers today to illustrate what rate of monthy inflation would be needed to get there buy the spring. Its just math, so here we see the Feds base rates come into plan. How is inflation month over month calculated? How is inflation year over year calculated? How do month to mon...
Do Markets Always Go Up After Midterm Elections?
September 11, 2022 16:06 - 21 minutes - 20 MBDo markets always go up after the midterm elections? What about market performance during the presidential cycle? Interesting data points to historical numbers being bullish for markets next year. What could go wrong? Plus, why it may not matter what political party is in power. Market performance before and after midterm elections When are midterm elections held? Significant swings in power during midterm election years Market performance and presidential cycles Which year...
Why Hedging Is the Answer for Portfolios | Can Hedgers Buy Markets Lower?
September 04, 2022 13:26 - 46 minutes - 42.9 MBWhy Hedging Is the Answer for Portfolios | Can Hedgers Buy Markets Lower? Show Summary: Rather than try to time markets or worry about whether there is a selloff around the corner, look to stay invested but be hedged. But what is hedged equity? What are the benefits for investors who may be barraged by various predictions and news? How do hedged equity strategies work? All this and more plus some new recommendations. Eliminate the need to time markets Reduce fear- but...
Gamma Squeeze Explained | Fed Talks Tough
August 29, 2022 22:01 - 44 minutes - 40.4 MBWas Bed Bath and Beyond a Gamma Squeeze? How the options market can sometimes drive buying and selling. Plus, Jerome Powell does a short press conference talking tough about taming inflation. Ryan Cohen option positions in Bed Bath and Beyond What is a Gamma Squeeze? How market makers hedge their book to remain flat When gamma squeezes don’t move the markets Jerome Powell talks tough in his press conference trying to send right message Did markets not understand the fed b...
Stocks Never Make New Lows When This Happens?
August 21, 2022 11:42 - 45 minutes - 42 MBJay Pestrichelli once again joins Derek Moore whether stocks never make new lows after retracing half a bear market drawdown. Plus, how many in the industry have never see a rising rate environment. Then, deconstructing earnings, profit margins, and revenues to go under the hood and how the US dollar strength plays into all of this. Have stocks ever went on to new lows after retracing half a bear market drawdown? Looking at the 2000-2002 bear market Reviewing the 2008-2009 grea...
Does Diversification Fail When Needed Most?
August 14, 2022 20:48 - 14 minutes - 13.5 MBDerek Moore is back to talk about the difference between diversifiable risk and systematic market risk. Diversification might fail the very time you want it most. The argument for diversification + hedging. Why bonds didn’t act as a diversifier this year. Diversifiable risk Systematic market risk 2007-2009 Period where diversification failed Why diversification is better than concentrated stock positions Comparing some individual companies vs indexes in 2008 Why bonds fai...
War on Stock Buybacks | More Recession Talk
August 08, 2022 13:08 - 27 minutes - 24.8 MBDerek Moore is back to discuss the war on share buybacks after a rumored 1% excise tax announcement. What are share buybacks? Why do companies do them? Plus, when you’ll officially here whether we are in a recession. Recessions are called long after they start NBER Nation Bureau of Economic Research committee dating business cycles What NBER criteria uses to call recessions Are share buybacks good or bad? 1% excise tax on share buybacks Dilution vs anti-dilution of share ...
Debating What a Recession Is? | Someone is Wrong Between the Market & the Fed
July 30, 2022 03:02 - 50 minutes - 46.5 MBJay Pestrichelli once again joins Derek Moore to discuss the disconnect between the market’s expectation of future interest rate raises and the Fed’s stated intentions. Did the market hear the right things from Jay Powell? How earnings through Q2 have held up and are still growing despite pessimistic calls otherwise. Plus, the debate about what a recession is and is not. Someone is wrong on interest fed rate raises Debate about what is a recession Why 2 quarters is not a recess...
Is the Strong US Dollar a Problem?
July 27, 2022 22:22 - 27 minutes - 25.4 MBThe US Dollar has been surging (getting stronger) as the Fed is raising rates more than some other countries or regions central bank. So why is a strong dollar problematic? How does a strong or weak US Dollar hurt or help US companies? Derek Moore is back to give some easy to understand examples plus how USD denominated debt from other countries will come under pressure with a stronger dollar. Why a strong US Dollar can hurt companies Why a weak US Dollar can help companies US ...