Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back together to debate the dollar, markets, earnings, and more. Plus, they discuss one aspect of S&P 500 Index estimates that no one ever talks about. Then, MSFT, META, AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN have driven all the YTD gains in the S&P 500 Index compared to the rest of the market. Finally, they discuss whether the market is still keying off the US Dollar level, S&P 500 profit margins, and more.

 

US Dollar still wagging the tail of the stock market?

Correlations of US Dollar to Equities (S&P 500 Index)

S&P 500 Index profit margins come off record highs.

What would declining profit margins mean for earnings?

Historical growth of S&P 500 Index revenues

What no one ever talks about within the S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index constituent changes – out with the old in with the new

What does the S&P 500 Index divisor mean relative to S&P 500 Index total market cap?

2022 negative EPS on S&P 500 Index driven by multiple and margin contraction.

EPS growth through margins, revenue, and share count.

Silicon Valley Bank and Signature bank get boot from S&P 500 Index

Quarterly rebalancing of S&P 500 Index

5 Fang stocks drive YTD performance of the S&P 500 Index

What annualized return needed to make a new high in the S&P 500 Index

 

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode:

 

Fed Tightening and Easing all at once? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-tightening-and-easing-all-at-once-how-wrong-were/id1432836154?i=1000605934758

 

Sequence of recessions and what comes first https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sequence-of-recessions-slowdowns-dividends-make/id1432836154?i=1000603802075

 

Is Warren Buffett right on stock buybacks? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-warren-buffett-right-on-stock-buybacks-bank-failures/id1432836154?i=1000604780531

 

Podcast Explaining Overnight Reverse Repos ON RRP by the FED https://open.spotify.com/episode/09VOIffldtn3WxNm7rzyNx

 

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

 

Contact Derek [email protected]