Midterm Elections and the Markets

Broken Pie Chart

English - October 30, 2022 15:09 - 55 minutes - 50.6 MB - ★★★★★ - 16 ratings
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Derek is joined by Spencer Wright of Halbert Wealth to discuss historical impact on markets Plus, they discuss the house, senate, and the prevailing polls and other indicators to sift through the noise. Finally, they give their picks in the 5 senate races that matter.

Market performance post midterm elections since 1962

Why markets might like split government

What the polls and adjusted polls are saying

What the past tells us about likelihood of change of power in the house during midterms

What do polls miss?

Markets in midterm years leading up to election day

Why long term it doesn’t matter which party is in power President, Senate, and house

How sitting president approval ratings play into races

What the betting markets are saying about the senate race and late momentum

When will we know the outcomes (hint: it may not be on election night)

Where can you find info on latest polls

Where can you find deadlines for mail ballots and when they will be counted

Disparity between Democrats and Republican candidate money raised and spending

Bias adjusted poll averages and what they are

Mentioned in this Episode:

RCP (real clear politics) latest polling data https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Interactive US Senate 2022 midterm map https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/

CNBC piece detailing candidate spending for Senate races https://www.cnbc.com/amp/guide/midterms-2022-top-senate-races-oz-walker-vance-kelly/

State legislature info on states mail ballot processing, counting, and deadlines https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Absentee ballot deadlines https://www.vote.org/absentee-ballot-deadlines/

Five Thirty Eight election probability models https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

What betting markets say about election probabilities https://electionbettingodds.com/

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr