Unexpected Points
279 episodes - English - Latest episode: 26 days ago - ★★★★★ - 51 ratingsUnexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a uniquely analytical lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues affecting football.
unexpectedpoints.substack.com
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Episodes
Dak Pre$cott hits the jackpot
March 10, 2021 10:36 - 48 minutes - 33.1 MBRJ Ochoa, editor-in-chief of Blogging The Boys, joins the pod to talk the new Dak Prescott deal, why the Cowboys can still compete with a big QB contract and which team he fears most in the NFC East. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Russ-Seahawks marriage on the rocks
March 03, 2021 08:00 - 52 minutes - 36.3 MBMichael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic joins the show to discuss on the J.J. Watt acquisition shifts the balance of power in the NFC West, plus his reporting on Russ Wilson's dissatisfaction with the Seahawks and what it means for their future together. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Is Carson Wentz the answer?
February 24, 2021 13:20 - 56 minutes - 38.9 MBStephen Holder of The Athletic joins the show to discuss the Carson Wentz trade, whether it was the right move for the Colts, and how Chris Ballard and Frank Reich can build around their new quarterback to make a postseason run. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
2021 WR Free Agent Class
February 18, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 55 MBMatt Harmon of Yahoo Sports and creator of the Reception Perception wide receiver rating system join the show to go through the vaunted 2021 free agency class, which receivers teams should prioritize, and why Curtis Samuel could break out in new surroundings. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Super Bowl review and QB carousel
February 10, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 48.4 MBPFF's salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to discuss the Chiefs' mistakes in the Super Bowl and look across the landscape of QB-needy teams to figure out who should land where. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Super Bowl Prop Talk
February 03, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 49.5 MBMatt Freedman of The Action Network joins Kevin to dissect the Matthew Stafford trade, give his rationale for the Chiefs covering and talk through his favorite prop bets for Super Bowl Sunday. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Conference Championship review & buyer beware on Matthew Stafford
January 27, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 49.5 MBKaelen Jones of the Ringer NFL joins Kevin to go over the bad decisions from Conference Championship Sunday, why Aaron Rodgers' legacy took a huge hit, and if Patrick Mahomes is the Michael Jordan of the NFL. Plus, they explore how much value Matthew Stafford provides teams needing a QB to get over the hump. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Deshaun Watson trade talk and the future of the Texans
January 20, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 45.4 MBAaron Reiss of The Athletic joins the show to talk Deshaun Watson trade discussions, the Texans' coaching candidates, if Jared Goff is worth top QB money, and previews of the conference championships. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Benjamin Solak, The Draft Network
January 13, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 62 MBKevin Cole is joined by Benjamin Solak, Senior CFB Writer from The Draft Network to talk about the loss of Doug Pederson, how it will affect the Eagles and much more. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’s Josh Hermsmeyer
January 07, 2021 08:00 - 1 hour - 49.8 MBKevin Cole is joined by FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’s Josh Hermsmeyer again to talk about the Eagles tanking situation, GM's and head coaches across the NFL and much more in this weeks episode of Unexpected Points. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Seth Keysor, Chiefs Analyst for The Athletic
December 30, 2020 14:35 - 1 hour - 47.9 MBKevin Cole is joined by Seth Keysor, Chiefs Analyst for The Athletic to talk about just how good Patrick Mahomes is, the likelihood of super bowl victory and everything else Chiefs. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Over the Cap Founder Jason Fitzgerald
December 23, 2020 08:00 - 54 minutes - 37.7 MBKevin Cole is joined by Jason Fitzgerald, Founder of Over the Cap to talk the Jets, player contracts, draft capital and more. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Arif Hasan, The Athletic
December 17, 2020 08:00 - 1 hour - 59.6 MBKevin Cole is joined by Arif Hasan, Beat writer for the Vikings to talk about, Their loss to the bucs and the impact from that on their playoff chances, and more. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Sheil Kapadia, The Athletic
December 10, 2020 08:00 - 1 hour - 47.7 MBKevin Cole is joined by Sheil Kapadia, senior NFL writer to talk Eagles, Seahawks, Hurts replacing Carson Wentz, what Jeffrey Lurie thinks & much more. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Buffalo Bills Reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques
December 02, 2020 08:00 - 1 hour - 43.5 MBKevin Cole is joined by Marcel Louis-Jacques to take a deep dive into the Buffalo Bills to discuss the coaching situation and the front office. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Michael Leone, Establish the Run
November 26, 2020 08:00 - 1 hour - 45.6 MBPFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run Director of Analytics Michael Leone to talk DFS analysis. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Evan Silva, Establish the Run
November 19, 2020 14:36 - 1 hour - 47.6 MBPFF's Kevin Cole is joined by Establish the run co-founder Evan Silva to draft teams and find their super bowl winner. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Film Analyst & Football Writer Jake Burns
November 12, 2020 08:00 - 1 hour - 67.3 MBFilm Analyst & Football Writer Jake Burns joins Kevin to talk film breakdown, the state of the Cleveland Browns, taking a broader look at the QB position and where Baker Mayfield fits in. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Interview with Professional bettor Rob Pizzola
November 05, 2020 08:00 - 1 hour - 42.6 MBProfessional bettor Rob Pizzola talks through his process, why the Seahawks and Saints are undervalued and his thoughts on rest of the Week 9 slate. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Interview with the Athletic's Ben Baldwin
October 29, 2020 07:00 - 1 hour - 47.2 MBBen Baldwin of The Athletic joins Kevin to talk advanced QB stats, Wilson vs Mahomes and why coaching aggressiveness is on the rise. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Michael Lopez, the NFL's Director of Football Data and Analytics On How the NFL is Using Current Trends and Data
October 22, 2020 04:20 - 58 minutes - 40.2 MBMichael Lopez, the NFL's Director of Football Data and Analytics joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss his background and how he got into football. Also on this episode, Kevin and Michael discuss how the NFL uses advanced data and analytics in everything from identifying current trends, to how NFL coaches and organizations use data to impact their decisions on and off the field. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visi...
Matthew Freedman of FantasyLabs Talks Prop Betting
October 15, 2020 03:41 - 1 hour - 57.1 MBMatthew Freedman of FantasyLabs joins PFF"s Kevin Cole to discuss the validity of prop bets in today's market. Kevin and Matthew also discuss NFL props in the 2020 season and outline some situations where prop bets may be favorable and some situations where prop bets may not be nearly as lucrative. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
ESPN's Mina Kimes Hands Out Quarter Season Awards + NFL News
October 08, 2020 14:45 - 1 hour - 44.2 MBESPN NFL Analyst Mina Kimes joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss all the latest NFL news including Dwayne Haskins' benching and Bill O'Brien's ousting in Houston (3:25). Also on this episode, Mina and Kevin hand out some awards a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season (24:21). This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Josh Hermsmeyer from FiveThirtyEight Talks Air Yards + AFC & NFC Super Bowl Contenders
October 01, 2020 05:01 - 1 hour - 53.9 MBPFF's Kevin Cole sits down with FiveThirtyEight and Establish the Run's Josh Hermsmeyer to talk Josh's famous Air Yards model (2:30) and statistical trends through 3 weeks of the NFL season (11:30). Kev and Josh also discuss some of their favorite under the radar Week 4 NFL fantasy football plays (18:15) and which teams could represent the AFC and NFC in Super Bowl LV (28:23). This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, vi...
Rufus Peabody of Massey-Peabody Analytics and Bet the Process Podcast Talks Gambling and NFL Week 3 Action
September 24, 2020 04:25 - 1 hour - 60.2 MBPFF's Kevin Cole sits down with Rufus Peabody. Kev and Rufus talk all things gambling including Rufus' background (01:58) and what sort of data points go into the making of the Massey-Peabody's sports betting models (07:26). Also on this episode, Kev and Rufus preview Week 3 of NFL action (25:01). This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Week 1 Review + Aaron Donald Slander with ESPN's Seth Walder
September 16, 2020 15:15 - 1 hour - 54.4 MBPFF's Kevin Cole welcomes ESPN's Seth Walder to discuss the NFL's opening weekend and which current narratives he's buying or selling after one week of action (2:04). Kevin and Seth also discuss the methodology behind Seth's now infamous Aaron Donald take (56:02). This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
DFS Strategy + Early Season Outlook with Establish the Run's, Adam Levitan
September 10, 2020 00:56 - 41 minutes - 28.2 MBPFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes Establish the Run's, Adam Levitan, to talk DFS and the origins of Establish the Run (01:41). Also on this episode, Kev and Adam discuss DFS strategy (06:04), what to expect early on in the 2020 NFL season from a DFS standpoint (25:54). This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Coverage vs. Pass Rush + 2020 NFL QB rankings with For the Win & USA Today's, Steven Ruiz
September 02, 2020 00:51 - 46 minutes - 31.8 MBPFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes USA Today's, Steven Ruiz. Kev and Steve discuss Steven's latest work (01:38) and dive into the age old question: coverage vs. pass rush (09:34)? Kev and Steve also discuss Steven's QB rankings (24:15) and much more on episode 2 of Unexpected Points. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bold Predictions for the 2020 NFL Season with JJ Zachariason
August 27, 2020 22:45 - 1 hour - 47.5 MBOn the first ever episode of Unexpected Points, PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole sits down with FanDuel and numberFire's, JJ Zachariason. Kev and JJ discuss JJ's 15 bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy season, including Cam Newton's potential finish as a top-5 fantasy QB (14:59), a monster season for Adam Thielen (24:50), and a battle in the AFC North between James Conner and Nick Chubb (41:14). This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access ...