Unexpected Points
279 episodes - English - Latest episode: 26 days ago - ★★★★★ - 51 ratingsUnexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a uniquely analytical lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues affecting football.
unexpectedpoints.substack.com
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Episodes
NFL Week 12 Review, Russ Cooked, Pats March On
November 30, 2021 15:37 - 1 hour - 62.9 MBKevin goes through the results and advanced stats for the Week 12 slate of games. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Thanksgiving NFL Reviews, Week 12 Best Bets
November 26, 2021 14:03 - 36 minutes - 25.3 MBKevin reviews Lions-Bear, Raiders-Cowboys and Saints-Bills. Plus, a few best bets for Sunday. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Thanksgiving NFL Reviews, Week 12 Best Bets
November 26, 2021 14:03 - 36 minutes - 34.1 MBKevin reviews Lions-Bear, Raiders-Cowboys and Saints-Bills. Plus, a few best bets for Sunday.
NFL Week 11 Review, Brady MVP, Bills and Titans Flop
November 23, 2021 15:29 - 1 hour - 62.1 MBKevin goes through the adjusted scores and advanced stats for the entire Week 11 slate. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
TNF Patriots-Falcons Review; Week 11 Best Bets
November 19, 2021 16:21 - 53 minutes - 36.6 MBKevin assesses the Patriots title chances, rants about the accurate presentation of evidence and has a few best bets for the Week 1 slate. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Week 10 Review, Rams in trouble, Chiefs back, & Patriots Contending
November 16, 2021 15:41 - 1 hour - 63.2 MBKevin goes through all his advanced stats and takes from the Week 10 slate. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
TNF Ravens-Dolphins Review, Week 10 Best Bets, Cam and OBJ Impact
November 12, 2021 16:52 - 1 hour - 42.9 MBKevin reviews an ugly TNF matchup and gives his best bets for this weekend's matchups. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Week 9 Review, Titans Rolling, Bills Falter, Successful Best Bets
November 09, 2021 16:12 - 1 hour - 50.4 MBKevin review the Week 9 slate and his adjusted scores and best bet results. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Odell Beckham Out, Aaron Rodgers Caught, NFL Week 9 Previews and Best Bets
November 05, 2021 14:20 - 50 minutes - 34.6 MBKevin reviews releasing Odell Beckham Jr., touches on the Aaron Rodgers, plus reviews of the Week 9 action and his favorite bets. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Week 8 Review, Chiefs offense on my radar, Bucs still the best team
November 02, 2021 14:44 - 1 hour - 53.7 MBKevin reviews all the Week 8 NFL action using his adjusted scores, advanced stats and PFF grades. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
TNF Packers-Cardinals Review, NFL Week 8 Best Bets
October 29, 2021 15:24 - 43 minutes - 30 MBKevin reviews the thrilling Packers victory where the Cardinals were probably the better team, plus a few best bets from the Falcons-Panthers, Bills-Dolphins and Saints-Bucs games. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Week 7 Review, Bengals Roar, Justin Fields Apologists On Notice
October 26, 2021 14:41 - 1 hour - 52.2 MBKevin reviews Week 7 and his adjusted scores, providing insights into teams that were better or worse than many think. Plus, he puts a few fan bases on notice for excuse making and getting ahead of themselves. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Browns-Broncos Review and Week 7 Best Bets
October 22, 2021 15:56 - 51 minutes - 35 MBKevin goes through the emergence of running-backs-don't-matter stud D'Ernest Johnson, the great decision-making of Kevin Stefanski and which games he's betting this Sunday. Plus, a look at a recent interview with Bob Voulgaris and what it shows about the mis-incentives in sports franchises. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Week 6 Review, Derrick Henry domination, Cardinals flying high
October 19, 2021 15:05 - 1 hour - 43.5 MBKevin walks through the Week 6 results, why Derrick Henry is valuable but not the MVP, if Belichick has lost his mojo, and why the Cardinals are not quite the best team in the NFL just yet. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bucs-Eagles Review, Week 6 Best Bets and Previews
October 15, 2021 16:00 - 1 hour - 46.9 MBKevin goes through all the numbers of a bad beat TNF contest between the Bucs and Eagles, plus his best bets for the rest of the Week 6 slate. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Week 5 Review: Best Bet Results, Bills the New AFC Kings, & Brady Defies Aging
October 12, 2021 16:18 - 1 hour - 45.8 MBKevin review the Week 5 results, breaks down his game grades and goes over a successful week of best bets. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Seahawks-Rams Analytical Review, Week 5 Best Bets and Previews
October 08, 2021 16:19 - 1 hour - 52.4 MBKevin breaks down the Thursday night matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, plus his favorite bets for the weekend and a detailed preview of each game. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Week 4 NFL Review: Kyler MVP & Chiefs back on track
October 05, 2021 17:12 - 1 hour - 64.3 MBKevin goes through each Week 4 matchup, diving into advanced stats, grades and trends. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Week 4 Preview: Best Bets, Advanced Stats and Trends
October 01, 2021 19:21 - 1 hour - 41.4 MBKevin reviews the Jaguars tough loss to the Bengal on TNF, plus he previews the entire Week 4 slate, which includes a handful of games with betting value. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Week 3 Review: Chiefs in trouble? Ravens disjointed? Carr Underrated?
September 28, 2021 17:10 - 1 hour - 56.1 MBKevin goes through all the relevant advanced stats and grades from the Week 3 matchups. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
TNF Panthers-Texans Grade/Stats Review, Week 3 Previews
September 24, 2021 17:32 - 53 minutes - 36.4 MBKevin breaks down the TNF performances and why Sam Darnold is thriving in Joe Brady's system, plus he goes through the most important stats and trends for every Week 2 matchup. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Week 2 Review, Chiefs-Ravens Grading Breakdown, QB Rankings
September 21, 2021 18:17 - 54 minutes - 37.7 MBKevin goes through all the Week 2 action from an analytical lens, digs into why Patrick Mahomes has a relatively poor PFF grade, and puts into context where each team's quarterback stands among the rest of the league. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
TNF Washington Football Team-New York Giants Analytical Review; Week 2 Stats and Trends to Monitor
September 17, 2021 16:00 - 1 hour - 45.2 MBKevin details why some of the grades from the TNF matchup may not match consensus perception and goes through each remaining Week 2 game with a few stats and trends to watch. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Chiefs-Browns analytics review, Why the Patriots are undervalued
September 14, 2021 17:11 - 1 hour - 53.1 MBKevin and Ryan Paganetti talk through the details of Chiefs vs Browns, including how the Browns played better than their numbers, and Kevin Stefanski had perfect decision-making. Plus, why the Patriots are unvalued after a Week 1 loss in a game where they outplayed the Dolphins. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bucs-Cowboys: Not as close as the score, Week 1 Sun/Mon preview
September 10, 2021 16:16 - 1 hour - 41.7 MBKevin looks deep into the advanced stats to show that the Bucs were more than two points better than the Cowboys, plus one thing to watch for every team playing this weekend. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bucs-Cowboys TNF Preview, Galaxy Brain Idea to Break the NFL
September 08, 2021 22:23 - 1 hour - 57.3 MBFormer coach and game management specialist Ryan Paganetti joins Kevin to discuss what they're looking for when they watch games and study the numbers, they break down TNF Buccaneers-Cowboys, or the "Does Defense Matter" Bowl, and Ryan presents a paradigm-shifting idea on how teams can block 30-50% of opponents' field-goal attempts with little additional investment. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpect...
Future is now for Mac Jones, Urban Meyer's Overdue Cancellation, Game Management Review
September 01, 2021 07:00 - 50 minutes - 34.9 MBKevin provides insight on Mac Jones getting the Week 1 start while making the case it won't take long for Justin Fields, Urban Meyer's farcical QB competition leads to cancellation, a review of smart game management during the last week of the preseason, and players you need to target in every round of fantasy football drafts. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
JJ Zachariason's 15 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions
August 25, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 55.2 MBKevin talks to JJ Zachariason, editor-in-chief at FanDuel, about his 15 bold predictions, including Trey Lance being a top-5 quarterback, Najee Harris being a top-8 running back and DeVonta Smith leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Ryan Paganetti, Former Eagles Game Management and Asst Linebackers Coach
August 18, 2021 20:26 - 1 hour - 75.7 MBKevin talks with former game mangement coach Ryan Paganetti about his time working with Chip Kelly and Doug Pederson, he takes us inside the booth and behind the scenes on how coaches view analytics, plus we discuss a few great stories, including Doug Pederson wanting to be a little too aggressive in the Super Bowl. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Running Backs Matter, Bifurcated QB Extension Market, Undervalued Fantasy WRs
August 11, 2021 07:00 - 50 minutes - 34.9 MBKevin discusses his new research that shows strong value for the top NFL runners, but still leaves questions about paying them big money. Plus, how the Josh Allen extension shifts the extension market for Baker and Lamar, and a handful of WRs you need in every fantasy draft. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
What to do about Wentz, Does Nick Chubb Matter and Fantasy RB Targets
August 04, 2021 10:07 - 53 minutes - 36.9 MB(0:00-16:02) Wentz injury/Impact on the Colts moving forward and potential new faces at QB (16:03-25:04) Nick Chubb’s New contact and the Significance it has on the Browns salary cap (25:05-33:43) “Stick to Sports” Kevin discusses his thoughts on Simone Biles decision to not compete in Olympics (33:43-43:09) New Segment, “When keeping real goes Wrong" Does the salary cap add parody to the NFL? (43:10-53:45) Kevin breaks down PFF’s Expected Fantasy Point Tool and how you can use it in your ...
Kevin Meers, Football Strategy Fellow at Zelus Analytics, former Browns Director of Research
July 28, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 61.2 MBKevin talks through the Aaron Rodgers agreement and what it means for Davante Adams, and how the NFLPA has failed to protect players from COVID-related financial losses. Plus, we talk with Keevin Meers of Zelus Analytics about how teams should focus more on macro strategy, and what the public doesn't know about analysis from the inside on an NFL franchise. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.s...
Benefits of Early QB Extensions (Baker, Lamar, Josh), Rodgers Drama, Perspective on Darrell Henderson
July 21, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 41.5 MBKevin talk through the Aaron Rodgers drama and why passing up a big contract isn't that important, how to view Darrell Henderson after the Cam Akers injury, why teams should be proactive extending QBs, and why empathy makes us bad fans and decision-makers. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Matthew Stafford Overrated; Regret Aversion
July 14, 2021 07:00 - 52 minutes - 36 MB(4:55) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s PFF grades leading up to his trade to the Rams (8:00) Breaking down Stafford’s 2020 Ranking (10th) to 2021 (6th) (10:20) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s lack of production despite having top tier receivers (11:40) Why Lamar Jackson should be ranked higher than Stafford headed into 2021 (13:17) Matt Stafford: Overrated?Lamar Jackson: Underrated? (14:51) Is it possible to be underrated if everyone thinks you are underrated? (18:06) Looking into the media/fans d...
Processing the Process: How the Browns (and Dolphins) went from cautionary tale to contender
July 07, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 42.5 MBThe Process (2:30) Browns new front office (4:45) Turning over likelihood of success to luck (8:00) Winning Championships (9:50) Letting players go (11:50) Picking the right players (13:00) Hue Jackson discussion (16:00) Talks about interview with Paul DePodesta (20:00) Browns progress season to season (23:30) Browns letting players go (27:00) NFL ready college QBs (30:00) How trade effects wins (34:00) Unlucky losses (37:00) Bringing in talent (40:00) Dorsey clearing house (44:00) Were the ...
Bill Belichick's Last Hurrah
June 30, 2021 07:00 - 55 minutes - 37.8 MBWhat has Belichick been up to? (2:10) Patriots fourth down rate (9:00) Patriots trade back habits (13:30) Are the Patriots wasting draft picks (15:00) Feedback loops (28:30) How has Belichick been so good at exploiting the Feedback Loop (31:00 - 35:00) Patriots lack of comp picks (39:30) Could Belichick be on the hot seat if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out (41:30) This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints...
NFL is getting smarter on situational aggressiveness
June 23, 2021 07:52 - 1 hour - 48.5 MBKevin reviews his final QB rankings, looks at rookie QB data to see when they should start, and find that teams are getting smarter on situational aggressiveness. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Inside an NFL Front Office: David Giuliani, Browns Director of Strategy & Research
June 16, 2021 16:33 - 41 minutes - 28.7 MBDavid Giuliani, the Browns director and strategy and research, joins Kevin to talk about how the league is becoming more focused on data, how to best communicate with coaches and other decision-makers, and how recruiting has changed with so much good analysis in the public sphere. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Analytical Quarterback Rankings
June 09, 2021 07:00 - 58 minutes - 39.9 MBKevin quantifies the win-win nature of the Julio Jones trade to the Titans, cancels a RB-truther beat reporter, ranks the NFL quarterbacks according to analytical modeling, and challenges the notion that hard work and effort are fundamentally different from other athletic talents. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Best (and Worst) NFL Front Offices
June 02, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 41.6 MBKevin talks about the week's news, ranks the best and worst front office in the NFL, and talks about how we can apply insight from a new book on noise in expert opinions to the NFL. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Russell Wilson: Underrated MVP Candidate
May 26, 2021 07:00 - 57 minutes - 39.4 MBKevin breaks down the Julio Jones trade situation from a the perspective of a front office in a two-year cap crunch, tracks year-over-year changes in MVP odds that point to Russell Wilson as a big-time value, and introduces a new "Stick to Sports" segment focusing this week on the biases of hundreds of Jeopardy contestants. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Dan Campbell is Canceled
May 19, 2021 07:00 - 57 minutes - 39.3 MBKevin tries to figure out if Urban Meyer is a donkey, cancels Dan Campbell after the head coach fails Analytics 101, and tells you why Micah Parsons is a value for Defensive Rookie of the Year, despite having the shortest odds. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Aaron Rodgers Has No Leverage
May 12, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 47.6 MBKevin discussed why we overestimate the leverage NFL players have to force trades, why draft reaches and a thing but steals aren't, and the value betting on Najee Harris for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Draft Winners & Losers
May 05, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 51.1 MBKevin goes solo talking through every teams drafts, with a focus on positional value, trading down and why more humility is needed in draft evaluation. Plus, he talks about the dangers of the GM as super scout. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Draft Prop Time
April 28, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 57.9 MBMatthew Freedman of the Action Network parses what's important to pay attention to predicting the NFL draft and which draft props have the highest expected returns. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
2021 NFL draft QB breakdown
April 21, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 50.1 MBBenjamin Solak of the Draft Networks joins the pod to talk through his QB evaluation process, what some are missing and why Justin Fields should be the QB2 of the 2021 class. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings
April 14, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 49.3 MBJJ Zachariason of numberFire joins the pod to rank the 2021 rookie wide receiver class and explain why he's higher on Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall than the consensus. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Darnold trade and rookie running back rankings
April 08, 2021 16:49 - 1 hour - 59.1 MBRich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis returns to talk about the Sam Darnold trade and ramifications for the Panthers and rookie quarterback rankings, plus he goes through his rookie running back rankings in advance of the 2021 NFL draft. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
The best and worst of free agency
March 25, 2021 15:56 - 58 minutes - 40.2 MBPFF cap analyst Brad Spielberger joins the pod to wrap up the first week of free agency, highlighting the best and worst moves and what it all means going forward. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Free agent impact
March 17, 2021 07:00 - 1 hour - 54.5 MBRich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis joins the show to talk through a busy couple days in free agency, how the various moves affect the fantasy landscape and general rules for assessing the impact of players switching scenery. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe