Unexpected Points
279 episodes - English - Latest episode: 26 days ago - ★★★★★ - 51 ratingsUnexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a uniquely analytical lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues affecting football.
unexpectedpoints.substack.com
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Episodes
Haters Ball: QB Rankings, Rest Advantage, & Front Office Facetime
May 23, 2022 15:04 - 1 hour - 60.2 MBIn the first annual Unexpected Points Haters Ball, Kevin hates on a few things that have come across his radar in the last several weeks.
Haters Ball: QB Rankings, Rest Advantage, & Front Office Facetime
May 23, 2022 15:04 - 1 hour - 45.1 MBIn the first annual Unexpected Points Haters Ball, Kevin hates on a few things that have come across his radar in the last several weeks. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL Team Tiers & Week 1 Schedule
May 16, 2022 19:43 - 50 minutes - 34.9 MBKevin goes through the Week 1 betting lines, how the market has tiered NFL teams and other news from the week. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Best Awards Bets (OROY, DROY, DPOY, MVP) & Mailbag
May 12, 2022 16:35 - 1 hour - 41.7 MBKevin goes through the best bets and longshots for NFL 2022 awards and answers listener questions. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Best Awards Bets (OROY, DROY, DPOY, MVP) & Mailbag
May 12, 2022 16:35 - 1 hour - 55.7 MBKevin goes through the best bets and longshots for NFL 2022 awards and answers listener questions.
NFL Front Office Rankings: Best, Worst and Most Overrated
May 09, 2022 16:30 - 1 hour - 55.4 MBBen Baldwin of the Athletic joins Kevin to talk through their front office rankings now the the 2022 NFL draft and free agency offseason is mostly complete. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Post-NFL Draft Wide Receiver and Running Back Fantasy Rankings
May 04, 2022 19:47 - 35 minutes - 24.6 MBKevin goes through his post-draft models looking at the likelihood of NFL success for 2022 WRs and RBs. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
2022 NFL Draft Analytical Winners and Losers
May 02, 2022 15:02 - 1 hour - 47.8 MBKevin goes through the unexpected winners and losers of the 2022 NFL draft. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
2022 NFL Draft First-Round Analytical Review
April 29, 2022 13:54 - 45 minutes - 31 MBKevin breaks down the winner and losers of a trade-filled first round. 0:01 Intro 6:22 AJ Brown Traded to the Eagles 14:52 Hollywood Brown Traded to Cardinals 18:20 Only Kenny Pickett Drafted in Round 1 22:19 WR Drafted in Round 1 25:59 Steals & Reaches in Round 1 This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Aidan Hutchinson Falling, Evaluating the Draft Evaluators, & Mailbag
April 25, 2022 21:11 - 1 hour - 42.3 MBKevin discusses movements in the NFL draft prop markets. Plus, why the QB evaluators are good at what they do, not what they haven't studied. Plus mailbag. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Predicting the 2022 NFL Draft
April 20, 2022 21:06 - 1 hour - 59.5 MBMatt Freedman joins Kevin to discuss betting NFL draft props and the Deebo Samuel trade request news. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Judging Extensions for Denzel Ward, Derek Carr and Stefon Diggs
April 18, 2022 21:07 - 54 minutes - 37.2 MBKevin looks at recent player extensions and what they mean for the broader NFL landscape. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
2022 Wide Receiver Prospect Rankings
April 13, 2022 22:55 - 1 hour - 53.9 MBKevin is joined by Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis to discuss the 2022 wide receiver class. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
2022 NFL Draft Strategy
April 11, 2022 20:52 - 48 minutes - 33.6 MBKevin discusses the Eagles-Saints trade and the best strategy for teams drafting early in the 2022 NFL draft This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Analytical 2022 Draft Quarterback Rankings
April 06, 2022 21:19 - 1 hour - 46.7 MBJim Sannes of FanDuel and numberFire joins the pod to talk about his quarterback prospect model and what it says about the 2022 class. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Crazy Wide Receiver Trade Market, Free Agency Roundup
April 04, 2022 20:31 - 1 hour - 44.2 MBKevin talks about the shifting dynamics in the wide receiver trade market and which teams added the most value at the right prices in free agency. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Digesting the New NFL Overtime Rules, How to Build a Data-Driven League
March 30, 2022 18:51 - 1 hour - 56.9 MBSam Schwartzstein joins the pod to talk about his time building the rules at the XFL, what the NFL could do to improve its rules and what he thinks about the new overtime rules for the playoffs. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
The Uncomfortable Deshaun Watson Press Conference
March 29, 2022 16:32 - 31 minutes - 21.9 MBKevin goes through what we heard from Andrew Berry, Deshaun Watson and the Browns owners in their first public appearances after the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, Diagnosing the Chiefs, Remaining QB trades
March 24, 2022 17:15 - 39 minutes - 26.8 MBKevin goes through the winners and loser of the Tyreek Hill trade, and looks back at the Chiefs strategy the last few season building around Patrick Mahomes. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
The Costs and Impacts of the Davante Adams and Deshaun Watson Trades
March 21, 2022 15:31 - 51 minutes - 35.5 MBKevin goes through all the numbers for the practical costs and Super Bowl probability impacts of the big NFL trades. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Lessons of Free Agency, Potential Fallout of the Deshaun Watson Decision
March 17, 2022 21:16 - 57 minutes - 39.6 MBKevin talks through the main options for Watson and how the Falcons and Browns will deal with their QB situations going forward. Plus, rules for understanding free agency and what it all means for your favorite team. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Brady is Back, Cousins is Staying, Deshaun Watson talk
March 14, 2022 13:29 - 56 minutes - 38.8 MBKevin talks about the ramifications of Brady's return, the Vikings taking the right path with Cousins and why he's particularly troubled by the discourse around Deshaun Watson. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Russell Wilson a Win-Win Trade, Rodgers Stays, How the Rest of the QB Carousel Plays Out
March 09, 2022 17:04 - 29 minutes - 20 MBKevin gives his data-based takes on the Russell Wilson trade and why it works for both teams. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Analytical Winners and Losers of the 2022 NFL Combine
March 07, 2022 23:11 - 45 minutes - 30.9 MBKevin goes through the results of his NFL Combine models for every offensive and defensive position. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
What NFL Combine Results Really Matter; Why Treylon Burks & Breece Hall are the WR1/RB1
March 01, 2022 18:33 - 51 minutes - 35.5 MBKevin goes through his combine research on the measurements and drills that matter most for each position, plus why his modeling points to Treylon Burks and Breece Hall as the best prospects at their respective positions. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Is Aaron Rodgers is too conservative when it counts? Kevin O'Connell saying the right things
February 22, 2022 21:08 - 45 minutes - 31.2 MBKevin discusses the difference in good and bad answers on running the ball from new coaches and whether Aaron Rodgers is too conservative in the playoffs. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Is Aaron Rodgers is too conservative when it counts? Kevin O'Connell saying the right things
February 22, 2022 21:08 - 45 minutes - 82.2 MBKevin discusses the difference in good and bad answers on running the ball from new coaches and whether Aaron Rodgers is too conservative in the playoffs.
Can Mike McDaniel make Tua the answer for the Miami Dolphins
February 17, 2022 15:12 - 1 hour - 102 MBKevin talks with ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques about the Mike McDaniel hire, Tua's ceiling and a potential big-spending offseason for the Miami Dolphins.
Can Mike McDaniel make Tua the answer for the Miami Dolphins?
February 17, 2022 15:12 - 1 hour - 42.4 MBKevin talks with ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques about the Mike McDaniel hire, Tua's ceiling and a potential big-spending offseason for the Miami Dolphins. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Rams Win it All, Stafford Hall of Fame?
February 14, 2022 19:23 - 49 minutes - 34 MBKevin reviews the numbers behind the Super Bowl and looks ahead at the implications for this offseason and next year. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Is Burrow Already Elite? Super Bowl Preview and Coaching Hires
February 08, 2022 23:04 - 44 minutes - 30.7 MBKevin discusses the numbers behind the Super Bowl matchup and how confident he is that the different coaching hires will be successful. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Brady the GOAT Retires; The NFL's Broken Hiring Process
February 02, 2022 22:32 - 40 minutes - 27.5 MBKevin discusses if the NFL's can fix the broken hiring process for minority coaches, plus a comparison of Tom Brady to GOATs of other sports, and why his career arc is so different. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bengals Shock the World, Stafford To The Super Bowl
January 31, 2022 20:55 - 47 minutes - 32.4 MBBen Brown joins Kevin to break down all the numbers and narratives behind the Conference Championships. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
The Analytics GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Coaching/GM Hiring Cycle
January 27, 2022 21:20 - 1 hour - 47.7 MBPFF's Brad Spielberger joins Kevin to talk through all the GM and coaching hires, and what to expect in the coming week. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bills/Chiefs the Greatest Game Ever? Divisional Round Reviews
January 24, 2022 21:57 - 1 hour - 43.1 MBKevin and Ben review all the stats and narratives around the Division round. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Should the Seahawks trade Russ? Divisional Previews
January 20, 2022 23:19 - 1 hour - 43.5 MBBen Baldwin joins kevin to discuss the Seahawks future and the divisional round matchups. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Rams Roll, Bills Blast, Wild Card Round Review
January 18, 2022 15:15 - 1 hour - 45.6 MBKevin reviews all the Wild Card round action with the numbers behind the narratives. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Solving the Vikings Offseason, Wild Card Previews & Best Bets
January 14, 2022 04:13 - 1 hour - 45.3 MBKevin and Ben break down the two paths the Vikings can take this offseason, plus previews of the Wild Card round. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Staley's Decisions, 49ers Contenders, Colts Out, NFL Week 18 Review
January 10, 2022 23:39 - 1 hour - 56.7 MBKevin and Ben talk through the most impactful games from Week 18 and their playoff implications. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Browns and Baker Navigating Transition, NFL Hiring Mistakes & Week 18 Best Bets
January 07, 2022 10:00 - 53 minutes - 36.7 MBKevin goes through an article from the Ringer on NFL higher practices, highlights stat wars, and builds a plan for the Browns to navigate the offseason. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bengals Roaring into the Playoffs, NFL Week 17 Review
January 04, 2022 15:49 - 1 hour - 63.8 MBKevin and Ben break down the week of NFL action with all the numbers behind the final scores. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Bucs Still No. 1, NFL Power Rankings, Week 17 Best Bets
December 31, 2021 16:04 - 35 minutes - 24.2 MBKevin goes through market-based and his own NFL power rankings, highlighting the biggest differences in public perception and reality. Plus, he gives his Week 17 best bets. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Chiefs are (again) the Super Bowl Favorites, MNF & Week 16 Review
December 28, 2021 17:51 - 1 hour - 53.1 MBKevin and Ben Brown go through the Week 16 slate of games with the biggest takeaways for futures and team strength. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Non-QB MVP: Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp, TNF Review, Week 16 Best Bets
December 24, 2021 14:47 - 39 minutes - 27.3 MBKevin review TNF 49ers-Titans game, goes through his analysis on points added for non-QBs and gives some best bets for the weekend. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Packers & Rodgers Flying High, NFL Week 15 & MNF Review
December 21, 2021 17:16 - 1 hour - 69.1 MBPFF's Ben Brown joins Kevin to talk through the Week 15 games through MNF. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Chiefs Keep the Crown, TNF Chiefs-Chargers Review, Week 15 Best Bets
December 17, 2021 14:45 - 43 minutes - 30 MBKevin breaks down the TNF matchup, who the Jags should hire as head coach and Week 15 best bets. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
Rams Prove They're in the Elite, MNF & Week 14 Review
December 14, 2021 16:54 - 1 hour - 72.9 MBKevin is joined by PFF's Ben Brown to talk through all the Week 14 action from an analytical perspective. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
TNF Review Vikings-Steelers, Belichick Brilliance, Week 14 Best Bets
December 10, 2021 16:36 - 49 minutes - 33.9 MBKevin reviews Vikings-Steelers, discusses the Belichick-McDermott discourse and gives a few best bets for this Sunday. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
MNF Patriots-Bills & NFL Week 13 Review
December 07, 2021 19:34 - 1 hour - 60.4 MBKevin reviews the games from Week 13. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe
NFL TNF Review Cowboys-Saints, Why Coaches Love the Run, Week 13 Best Bets
December 03, 2021 16:15 - 57 minutes - 39.3 MBKevin reviews the advanced stats from TNF, discusses a groundbreaking PFF study and gives his best bets for Week 13. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit unexpectedpoints.substack.com/subscribe