Probable Causation
179 episodes - English - Latest episode: 13 days ago - ★★★★ - 129 ratingsA show about law, economics, and crime.
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Episodes
Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime
September 01, 2020 15:19 - 42 minutes - 51.7 MBErich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager. “The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Bu...
Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger
September 01, 2020 15:19 - 42 minutes - 51.7 MBErich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime.
Episode 34: David Phillips
August 18, 2020 11:55 - 51 minutes - 47.5 MBDavid Phillips talks about how emergency financial assistance for housing affects crime.
Episode 34: David Phillips on emergency financial assistance
August 18, 2020 11:55 - 51 minutes - 47.5 MBDavid Phillips talks about how emergency financial assistance for housing affects crime. "Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much" by Sendhil Mullainathan. "Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City" by Matthew Desmond. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior" by David ...
Episode 33: Jason Lindo
August 04, 2020 12:41 - 54 minutes - 50.2 MBJason Lindo talks about how violent media content affects crime.
Episode 33: Jason Lindo on violent media content
August 04, 2020 12:41 - 54 minutes - 50.2 MBJason Lindo talks about how violent media content affects crime. "Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content" by Jason M. Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen, and Glen R. Waddell. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Violent Video Games Stress People Out and Make Them More Aggressive” by Hasan Youssef, Laurent Bègue, and Brad J. Bushman. “Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?” by Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna. “Violent Video Games and Violent Crime” by Scott Cunningham, Benjamin ...
Episode 32: Sarit Weisburd
July 21, 2020 13:20 - 48 minutes - 44.5 MBSarit Weisburd talks about the effect of police presence on crime.
Episode 32: Sarit Weisburd on police presence and crime
July 21, 2020 13:20 - 48 minutes - 44.5 MBSarit Weisburd talks about the effect of police presence on crime. "Police Presence, Rapid Response Rates, and Crime Prevention" by Sarit Weisburd. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Kansas City Preventative Patrol Experiment” by George L. Kelling, Tony Pate, Duane Dieckman, Charles E. Brown. “General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Lawrence W. Sherman and David Weisburd. “Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Pl...
Episode 19: Jeremy West (REBROADCAST)
July 07, 2020 12:41 - 45 minutes - 42 MBJeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations.
Episode 19: Jeremy West on racial bias in police investigations (REBROADCAST)
July 07, 2020 12:41 - 45 minutes - 42 MBJeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations. This episode was first posted in December 2019. "Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang. "A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the...
Episode 10: Emily Weisburst on police officers in schools (REBROADCAST)
June 23, 2020 13:27 - 55 minutes - 51 MBEmily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools. This episode was first posted in August 2019. "Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes" by Emily Weisburst. "Police in the Hallways: Discipline in an Urban High Scho...
Episode 10: Emily Weisburst (REBROADCAST)
June 23, 2020 13:27 - 55 minutes - 51 MBEmily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools.
Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making
June 09, 2020 12:37 - 44 minutes - 103 MBRandi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk. “The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson. “The ...
Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson
June 09, 2020 12:37 - 44 minutes - 103 MBRandi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict.
Episode 30: Brittany Street
May 26, 2020 12:33 - 46 minutes - 42.7 MBBrittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior.
Episode 30: Brittany Street on economic opportunity and crime
May 26, 2020 12:33 - 46 minutes - 42.7 MBBrittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior. "The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economics Development and Criminal Activity” by Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens. “Who Really Benefits from a Resource Boom? Evidence from the Marcellus and Utica Shale Plays” by R. Kaj Gittings and Travis Roach. “Mo...
Episode 29: Patricio Dominguez
May 12, 2020 12:27 - 47 minutes - 43.3 MBPatricio Dominguez talks about how the interactions of victims and offenders affect crime, using bus robberies in Chile as a case study.
Episode 29: Patricio Dominguez on the interactions of offenders and victims
May 12, 2020 12:27 - 47 minutes - 43.3 MBPatricio Dominguez talks about how the interactions of victims and offenders affect crime, using bus robberies in Chile as a case study. "How Offenders and Victims Interact: A Case-study from a Public Transportation Reform" by Patricio Domínguez. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Punishment and Crime: A Critique of Current Findings Concerning the Preventive Effects of Punishment” by Philip Cook. “The Clearance Rate as a Measure of Criminal Justice System Effectiveness” by Phili...
Episode 28: Jillian Carr on SNAP benefit distribution and crime
April 28, 2020 13:56 - 42 minutes - 97.4 MBJillian Carr talks about how staggering the distribution of SNAP benefits affects crime. "SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “One More Saturday Night: Food Stamp Timing and Monthly Consumption Patterns” by Elena Castellari, Chad Cotti, John M. Gordanier, and Orgul D. Ozturk. “Welfare Payments and Crime” by C. Fritz Foley. “The Short-Term Mortality Consequences of Incom...
Episode 28: Jillian Carr
April 28, 2020 13:56 - 42 minutes - 97.4 MBJillian Carr talks about how staggering the distribution of SNAP benefits affects crime.
Episode 27: Benjamin Hansen
April 14, 2020 11:20 - 1 hour - 149 MBBenjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug.
Episode 27: Benjamin Hansen on marijuana legalization
April 14, 2020 11:20 - 1 hour - 149 MBBenjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug. "Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana" by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel I. Rees. “Early Evidence on Recreational Marijuana Legalization and Traf...
Episode 26: Kirabo Jackson on single-sex education
March 31, 2020 13:02 - 50 minutes - 46.2 MBKirabo Jackson talks about the effects of single-sex education on academic outcomes, arrests, and teen motherhood. "Can Introducing Single-Sex Education into Low-Performing Schools Improve Academics, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood" by C. Kirabo Jackson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Single-Sex Schools, Student Achievement, and Course Selection: Evidence from Rule-Based Student Assignments in Trinidad and Tobago" by C. Kirabo Jackson. "Causal Effects of Single-Sex Schools on C...
Episode 26: Kirabo Jackson
March 31, 2020 13:02 - 50 minutes - 46.2 MBKirabo Jackson talks about the effects of single-sex education on academic outcomes, arrests, and teen motherhood.
Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs
March 17, 2020 13:06 - 44 minutes - 102 MBSara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber. "Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon an...
Episode 25: Sara Heller
March 17, 2020 13:06 - 44 minutes - 102 MBSara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.
Bonus episode: Adam Gelb
March 10, 2020 13:47 - 32 minutes - 75.2 MBAdam Gelb talks about the Council on Criminal Justice, a new invitational membership organization and think tank focused on the criminal justice field.
Bonus episode: Adam Gelb on the Council on Criminal Justice
March 10, 2020 13:47 - 32 minutes - 75.2 MBAdam Gelb talks about the Council on Criminal Justice, a new invitational membership organization and think tank focused on the criminal justice field.
Episode 24: Logan Lee on residential housing programs
March 03, 2020 14:15 - 49 minutes - 44.9 MBLogan Lee talks about residential housing programs and recidivism. "Halfway Home? Residential Housing and Reincarceration" by Logan M. Lee. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "From Locked Up to Locked Out: Access to Affordable Rental Housing and Criminal Recidivism" by Timothy Young. "Stress and Hardship After Prison" by Bruce Western, Anthony A. Braga, Jaclyn Davis, and Catherine Sirois. "Stigma, hHousing and Identity After Prison" by Danya E. Keene, Amy B. Smoyer, and Kim M. B...
Episode 24: Logan Lee
March 03, 2020 14:15 - 49 minutes - 44.9 MBLogan Lee talks about residential housing programs and recidivism.
Bonus episode: Rachel Barkow
February 27, 2020 14:19 - 1 hour - 63.8 MBWe've unlocked this bonus episode, originally available only to Patreon subscribers: David Eil interviews Rachel Barkow about her book, Prisoners of Politics. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!
Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte
February 18, 2020 14:39 - 49 minutes - 45 MBLelys Dinarte talks about the effects of after-school programs for at-risk youth in El Salvador.
Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte on after-school programs in El Salvador
February 18, 2020 14:39 - 49 minutes - 45 MBLelys Dinarte talks about the effects of after-school programs for at-risk youth in El Salvador. "Preventing Violence in the Most Violent Contexts: Behavioral and Neurophysiological Evidence from El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte and Pablo Egana-delSol "Peer Effects on Violence. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte [Draft available from the author upon request.] OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "After-School Programs for Delinquency Prevention: A Systematic Review...
Episode 22: Phil Levine on gun exposure and accidental shootings
February 04, 2020 14:11 - 34 minutes - 31.3 MBPhil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. "Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Ch...
Episode 22: Phil Levine
February 04, 2020 14:11 - 34 minutes - 31.3 MBPhil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook.
Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court
January 21, 2020 14:30 - 56 minutes - 51.7 MBAurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESE...
Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss
January 21, 2020 14:30 - 56 minutes - 51.7 MBAurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court.
Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries
January 07, 2020 14:33 - 1 hour - 59.7 MBJ.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg. The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg. Sex Offender Registries: Fear without ...
Episode 20: J.J. Prescott
January 07, 2020 14:33 - 1 hour - 59.7 MBJ.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries.
Episode 19: Jeremy West
December 24, 2019 13:38 - 46 minutes - 42.1 MBJeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations.
Episode 19: Jeremy West on racial bias in police investigations
December 24, 2019 13:38 - 46 minutes - 42.1 MBJeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations. "Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang. "A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department" by Kate Antonovics an...
Episode 18: Maya Rossin-Slater on the effects of violent assault during pregnancy
December 10, 2019 13:57 - 48 minutes - 44.7 MBMaya Rossin-Slater talks about how violent assault during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and infant health. "Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes" by Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Poverty, violence, and health the impact of domestic violence during pregnancy on newborn health" by Anna Aizer. "Birth outcomes for Arabic-named women in California before and after Septem...
Episode 18: Maya Rossin-Slater
December 10, 2019 13:57 - 48 minutes - 44.7 MBMaya Rossin-Slater talks about how violent assault during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and infant health.
Episode 17: Ana Tur-Prats on how historical family types affect intimate partner violence today
November 26, 2019 13:30 - 36 minutes - 33.5 MBAna Tur-Prats talks about how historical family types affect present-day intimate partner violence. "Family Types and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective" by Ana Tur-Prats. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Domestic Violence: A Nonrandom Affair” by Helen V. Tauchen, Ann Dryden Witte, and Sharon K. Long. “Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals” by Amy Farmer and Jill Tiefenthaler. “Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law: Divorce Laws and Family Distres...
Episode 17: Ana Tur-Prats
November 26, 2019 13:30 - 36 minutes - 33.5 MBAna Tur-Prats talks about how historical family types affect present-day intimate partner violence.
Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime
November 12, 2019 15:22 - 59 minutes - 54 MBStephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. "Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner. "Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessi...
Episode 16: Stephen Billings
November 12, 2019 15:22 - 59 minutes - 54 MBStephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead.
Coming soon: Interviews with book authors
November 01, 2019 12:14 - 15 minutes - 14.5 MBHost Jennifer Doleac talks with David Eil about a new Probable Causation feature: interviews with book authors.
Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi on the effects of criminal gangs in El Salvador
October 29, 2019 15:53 - 34 minutes - 31.8 MBMica Sviatschi talks about the effects of criminal gangs on economic development in El Salvador. "Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development" by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Draft available from the authors upon request.) OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Legitimacy in Criminal Governance: Managing a Drug Empire from Behind Bars” by Benjamin Lessing and Graham D. Willis. "The Logic of Violence in Drug Wars: Cartel-State Conflict in Mexico, ...
Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi
October 29, 2019 15:53 - 34 minutes - 31.8 MBMica Sviatschi talks about the effects of criminal gangs on economic development in El Salvador.