Latest Fiscal policy Podcast Episodes
How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?
Macro Bytes - April 18, 2024 07:00 - 25 minutesThe global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of th...
Will the Bank of Japan hike interest rates again before the Federal Reserve cuts?
Macro Bytes - April 09, 2024 11:00 - 34 minutesThe Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann ...
Are we in a more volatile world for inflation?
Macro Bytes - March 21, 2024 14:00 - 24 minutesThe ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling gl...
Will China hit its new growth target?
Macro Bytes - March 07, 2024 16:00 - 27 minutesChina has just announced a GDP target of “around 5%” for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy.
Will the last mile of inflation be the hardest?
Macro Bytes - February 22, 2024 14:00 - 33 minutesUS inflation picked up in January, and there are lingering concerns that the “last mile” of bringing inflation back to target will be the most difficult. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to James McCann about the drivers of US inflation, the positive supply-side shocks that made the initia...
What's been holding the German economy back?
Macro Bytes - February 09, 2024 11:00 - 23 minutesThe Eurozone economy is stagnating and the German economy in particular is facing significant cyclical and structural headwinds. We discuss why.
What’s at stake in 2024’s many elections?
Macro Bytes - January 26, 2024 09:00 - 22 minutesA majority of the global population are heading to the polls this year, bookended by Taiwan just gone and the US in November. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, to discuss what is at stake for economies and markets. Overarching all these...
Is India the next Asian tiger?
Macro Bytes - January 11, 2024 13:00 - 28 minutesIndia was the fastest-growing major economy last year, and overhauled China as the most populous country. Paul and Luke discuss prospects for the Indian economy with Michael Langham, Emerging Markets Analyst at abrdn. They talk about India’s demographic tailwinds, its infrastructure needs, wheth...
Macro questions for 2024
Macro Bytes - December 14, 2023 15:00 - 22 minutesabrdn’s economics team ask and answer the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024. These include the path of inflation, the outlook for US, China and Eurozone growth, the likely pace of interest rate cuts, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, and the potent...
Is Japan leaving behind the lost decades?
Macro Bytes - November 29, 2023 12:00 - 24 minutesPaul and Luke talk to Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Economist at abrdn, about the return of inflation to Japan, and the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy as a response. Negative interest rates and yield curve control could end in 2024, if wage growth and inflation expectations continue movi...
How could conflict in the Middle East effect the global economy?
Macro Bytes - November 13, 2023 12:00 - 26 minutesPaul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of s...
How could conflict in the Middle East affect the global economy?
Macro Bytes - November 13, 2023 12:00 - 26 minutesPaul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of s...
Why are bond yields rising?
Macro Bytes - November 02, 2023 11:00 - 26 minutesPaul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the significant rise in global bond yields. They discuss what has driven this increase, and in particular the importance of rising term premia for the economy and monetary policy.
How is AI going to change the economy?
Macro Bytes - October 19, 2023 11:00 - 25 minutesPaul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the many potential economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence, including on productivity growth, the labour market, sectoral winners and losers, regulation, and global geopolitics.
Why are emerging markets cutting interest rates?
Macro Bytes - October 05, 2023 11:00 - 27 minutesInflation is falling in many EM economies, which is allowing some to cut interest rates well ahead of the US Fed. However, the recent move higher in oil prices, and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on food prices, could derail this improving picture. Paul speaks to Bob Gilhooly, senior EM ...
Are we in a world of permanently higher interest rates?
Macro Bytes - September 26, 2023 13:00 - 38 minutesLuke talks to Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCL, and Bob Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the long term drivers of interest rates. They discuss the causes of the secular decline in interest rates before the pandemic, whether economic changes wrough...
Is the Fed pulling off a soft landing?
Macro Bytes - September 06, 2023 13:00 - 23 minutesPaul and Luke speak to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy. They debate whether the run of strong activity data but moderating inflation means a US soft landing is now more likely than a recession.
What did the Bank of England get wrong? - with Michael Saunders
Macro Bytes - August 30, 2023 11:00 - 29 minutesPaul and Luke speak to Michael Saunders, former external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, about the UK economy and the Bank’s track record.
Is the UK “stagflation nation”?
Macro Bytes - August 10, 2023 15:00 - 25 minutesPaul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the UK economy. They discuss recent trends in growth and inflation, how the UK stands against international peers, the political implications of a possible recession, and the fraying of the “green consensu...
Restarting the intangible economy – with Professor Jonathan Haskel
Macro Bytes - June 30, 2023 15:00 - 36 minutesPaul talks to Professor Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and co-author of ‘Restarting the Future: How to fix the intangible economy’, and Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the intangible economy. The economy increasingly ...
Chip Wars - The geopolitics of microchips - with Chris Miller
Macro Bytes - June 15, 2023 10:00 - 22 minutesLuke and Paul talk to Chris Miller, academic, historian and author of Chip Wars: The fight for the world’s most critical technology, about the economic and geopolitical importance of semiconductors. They discuss the technological and supply chain marvel that is the modern microchip, whether the ...
Is China’s recovery stalling? – with Jon Anderson
Macro Bytes - June 14, 2023 08:00 - 27 minutesAs China’s re-opening rebound fades, Paul and Luke talk to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group and Robert Gilhooly of abrdn about the Chinese economy. The discuss the prospects for policy easing, the state of local government finances, and internationalisation of the renminbi.
How will the debt ceiling be resolved?
Macro Bytes - May 26, 2023 15:00 - 31 minutesThe US is facing another debt ceiling stand-off, with very high stakes for the economy and markets. Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, about the current impasse and how it could be resolved. They discuss the history of t...
Why Asia is winning the race for global growth
Macro Bytes - May 18, 2023 08:00 - 22 minutesLuke and Paul talk to Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the drivers of global growth out to 2050. They discuss demographics, and why it is not always destiny, migration, urbanisation, the risks of the middle-income trap, and Asia’s growing share of the global eco...
How close is the US to recession?
Macro Bytes - May 05, 2023 15:00 - 19 minutesLuke talks to Abigail Watt, economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy and policy. They discuss what recent data resilience says about the likelihood of a recession, the ongoing turmoil of the US banking sector, and whether a near term resolution to the current debt ceiling impasse...
Will Sunak keep his economic promises?
Macro Bytes - April 20, 2023 08:00 - 19 minutesPaul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the UK government’s political economy strategy, whether Sunak will be able to deliver on his key ‘promises’, the developments around a green industrial strategy, and the outlook for the forthcoming UK local elections.
Will Sunak keep his economic promise?
Macro Bytes - April 20, 2023 08:00 - 19 minutesPaul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the UK government’s political economy strategy, whether Sunak will be able to deliver on his key ‘promises’, the developments around a green industrial strategy, and the outlook for the forthcoming UK local elections.
How is banking stress changing the economic outlook?
Macro Bytes - March 29, 2023 14:00 - 21 minutesPaul and Luke discuss the macro implications of recent stresses in the banking sector. They discuss comparisons with the global financial crisis, the negative economic spillovers of banking worries into the economy, and how all this effects the decision making of the Fed and other central banks.
What does it mean to be a finance influencer - with Eddie Donmez
Macro Bytes - March 21, 2023 14:00 - 27 minutesPaul and Luke talk to Eddie Donmez, global markets analyst and a popular finance influencer at Finimize. Eddie tells us what it means to be a finance influencer, and talks about changing trends in the retail investor community around access to high quality research. We also talk about event...
Japan: Losing control of yield curve control
Macro Bytes - March 01, 2023 14:00 - 28 minutesPaul Diggle talks to Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” framework. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been anchoring government bond yields at very low levels. But the policy is coming under increasing pressure from financial markets. Will ...
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