Episodes

Are we in a more volatile world for inflation?

March 21, 2024 14:00 - 24 minutes - 16.8 MB

The ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay – and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and p...

Will China hit its new growth target?

March 07, 2024 16:00 - 27 minutes - 18.9 MB

China has just announced a GDP target of “around 5%” for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy. 

Will the last mile of inflation be the hardest?

February 22, 2024 14:00 - 33 minutes - 23 MB

US inflation picked up in January, and there are lingering concerns that the “last mile” of bringing inflation back to target will be the most difficult. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to James McCann about the drivers of US inflation, the positive supply-side shocks that made the initial decline in inflation so rapid, the 1970s experience that might be weighing on policymakers, and whether the US is at risk of a fiscal crisis.

What's been holding the German economy back?

February 09, 2024 11:00 - 23 minutes - 16.4 MB

The Eurozone economy is stagnating and the German economy in particular is facing significant cyclical and structural headwinds. We discuss why.

What’s at stake in 2024’s many elections?

January 26, 2024 09:00 - 22 minutes - 15.5 MB

A majority of the global population are heading to the polls this year, bookended by Taiwan just gone and the US in November. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, to discuss what is at stake for economies and markets. Overarching all these elections are unifying themes of political polarisation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the changing nature of globalisation.

Is India the next Asian tiger?

January 11, 2024 13:00 - 28 minutes - 19.3 MB

India was the fastest-growing major economy last year, and overhauled China as the most populous country. Paul and Luke discuss prospects for the Indian economy with Michael Langham, Emerging Markets Analyst at abrdn. They talk about India’s demographic tailwinds, its infrastructure needs, whether India can be a ‘friendshoring’ winner, and what a third Modi term could have in store. 

Macro questions for 2024

December 14, 2023 15:00 - 22 minutes - 15.6 MB

abrdn’s economics team ask and answer the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024. These include the path of inflation, the outlook for US, China and Eurozone growth, the likely pace of interest rate cuts, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, and the potential for AI to drive a productivity boom 

Is Japan leaving behind the lost decades?

November 29, 2023 12:00 - 24 minutes - 17 MB

Paul and Luke talk to Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Economist at abrdn, about the return of inflation to Japan, and the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy as a response. Negative interest rates and yield curve control could end in 2024, if wage growth and inflation expectations continue moving higher. 

How could conflict in the Middle East affect the global economy?

November 13, 2023 12:00 - 26 minutes - 18.3 MB

Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of severe escalation scenarios. 

How could conflict in the Middle East effect the global economy?

November 13, 2023 12:00 - 26 minutes - 18.3 MB

Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of severe escalation scenarios. 

Why are bond yields rising?

November 02, 2023 11:00 - 26 minutes - 18.4 MB

Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the significant rise in global bond yields. They discuss what has driven this increase, and in particular the importance of rising term premia for the economy and monetary policy.

How is AI going to change the economy?

October 19, 2023 11:00 - 25 minutes - 17.4 MB

Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the many potential economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence, including on productivity growth, the labour market, sectoral winners and losers, regulation, and global geopolitics. 

Why are emerging markets cutting interest rates?

October 05, 2023 11:00 - 27 minutes - 19 MB

Inflation is falling in many EM economies, which is allowing some to cut interest rates well ahead of the US Fed. However, the recent move higher in oil prices, and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on food prices, could derail this improving picture. Paul speaks to Bob Gilhooly, senior EM economist, and Michael Langham, EM analyst, about the economic outlook across the emerging markets. 

Are we in a world of permanently higher interest rates?

September 26, 2023 13:00 - 38 minutes - 26.7 MB

Luke talks to Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCL, and Bob Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the long term drivers of interest rates. They discuss the causes of the secular decline in interest rates before the pandemic, whether economic changes wrought by the pandemic will reverse this trend, and the impact of demographics, (de)globalisation and AI.  

Is the Fed pulling off a soft landing?

September 06, 2023 13:00 - 23 minutes - 15.9 MB

  Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy. They debate whether the run of strong activity data but moderating inflation means a US soft landing is now more likely than a recession. 

What did the Bank of England get wrong? - with Michael Saunders

August 30, 2023 11:00 - 29 minutes - 20 MB

Paul and Luke speak to Michael Saunders, former external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, about the UK economy and the Bank’s track record. 

Is the UK “stagflation nation”?

August 10, 2023 15:00 - 25 minutes - 17.9 MB

Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the UK economy. They discuss recent trends in growth and inflation, how the UK stands against international peers, the political implications of a possible recession, and the fraying of the “green consensus”.

Restarting the intangible economy – with Professor Jonathan Haskel

June 30, 2023 15:00 - 36 minutes - 24.9 MB

Paul talks to Professor Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and co-author of ‘Restarting the Future: How to fix the intangible economy’, and Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the intangible economy.  The economy increasingly consists of ideas, brands, and relationships. This shift from “stuff” to intangibles has wide-ranging implications for productivity, competition, inequality, and how policymakers should manage the mod...

Chip Wars - The geopolitics of microchips - with Chris Miller

June 15, 2023 10:00 - 22 minutes - 15.8 MB

Luke and Paul talk to Chris Miller, academic, historian and author of Chip Wars: The fight for the world’s most critical technology, about the economic and geopolitical importance of semiconductors. They discuss the technological and supply chain marvel that is the modern microchip, whether the US-China-Taiwan chip nexus is politically stabilising or destabilising, the impact of the CHIPS Act, and AI innovation as a driver of market performance and future great power competition.

Is China’s recovery stalling? – with Jon Anderson

June 14, 2023 08:00 - 27 minutes - 18.9 MB

As China’s re-opening rebound fades, Paul and Luke talk to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group and Robert Gilhooly of abrdn about the Chinese economy. The discuss the prospects for policy easing, the state of local government finances, and internationalisation of the renminbi.

How will the debt ceiling be resolved?

May 26, 2023 15:00 - 31 minutes - 21.6 MB

The US is facing another debt ceiling stand-off, with very high stakes for the economy and markets. Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, about the current impasse and how it could be resolved. They discuss the history of the debt ceiling, the likely shape of a deal, the impact of possible spending cuts on the US economy, and the worst-case scenario of a US debt default.

Why Asia is winning the race for global growth

May 18, 2023 08:00 - 22 minutes - 15.8 MB

Luke and Paul talk to Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the drivers of global growth out to 2050. They discuss demographics, and why it is not always destiny, migration, urbanisation, the risks of the middle-income trap, and Asia’s growing share of the global economic pie. 

How close is the US to recession?

May 05, 2023 15:00 - 19 minutes - 13.2 MB

Luke talks to Abigail Watt, economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy and policy. They discuss what recent data resilience says about the likelihood of a recession, the ongoing turmoil of the US banking sector, and whether a near term resolution to the current debt ceiling impasse is on the cards.

Will Sunak keep his economic promises?

April 20, 2023 08:00 - 19 minutes - 13.7 MB

Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the UK government’s political economy strategy, whether Sunak will be able to deliver on his key ‘promises’, the developments around a green industrial strategy, and the outlook for the forthcoming UK local elections. 

Will Sunak keep his economic promise?

April 20, 2023 08:00 - 19 minutes - 13.7 MB

Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the UK government’s political economy strategy, whether Sunak will be able to deliver on his key ‘promises’, the developments around a green industrial strategy, and the outlook for the forthcoming UK local elections. 

How is banking stress changing the economic outlook?

March 29, 2023 14:00 - 21 minutes - 14.6 MB

Paul and Luke discuss the macro implications of recent stresses in the banking sector.  They discuss comparisons with the global financial crisis, the negative economic spillovers of banking worries into the economy, and how all this effects the decision making of the Fed and other central banks.

What does it mean to be a finance influencer - with Eddie Donmez

March 21, 2023 14:00 - 27 minutes - 18.8 MB

Paul and Luke talk to Eddie Donmez, global markets analyst and a popular finance influencer at Finimize.    Eddie tells us what it means to be a finance influencer, and talks about changing trends in the retail investor community around access to high quality research. We also talk about events at Silicon Valley Bank. Finally, Eddie tells us why he thinks chatbots and AI innovations will change how finance research and analysis is done.

Japan: Losing control of yield curve control?

March 01, 2023 14:00 - 28 minutes - 19.8 MB

Paul Diggle talks to Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” framework.   The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been anchoring government bond yields at very low levels. But the policy is coming under increasing pressure from financial markets. Will the new Governor of the BoJ upend this key tenet of the global monetary policy landscape?

Japan: Losing control of yield curve control

March 01, 2023 14:00 - 28 minutes - 19.8 MB

Paul Diggle talks to Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control” framework.   The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been anchoring government bond yields at very low levels. But the policy is coming under increasing pressure from financial markets. Will the new Governor of the BoJ upend this key tenet of the global monetary policy landscape?

Europe rewriting its fiscal rules

February 16, 2023 16:00 - 25 minutes - 17.3 MB

Luke Bartholomew talks to Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about Europe’s changing fiscal framework.     The rules that govern European fiscal policy are being rewritten, while Europe is also designing its response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. What does all this mean for the economic outlook and markets?

China's reopening rebound

February 03, 2023 15:00 - 25 minutes - 17.7 MB

Paul talks to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at abrdn, about China’s move away from zero-Covid. They discuss the reasons for the abrupt policy shift, the initial hit in terms of health and economic activity, and the economic rebound that’s now underway. 

House Rules – the outlook for US politics in 2023.

January 20, 2023 15:00 - 20 minutes - 14.4 MB

Luke talks to Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at abrdn, about the outlook for US politics in 2023. They discuss the impact of the narrow Republican majority in the House on debt ceiling negotiations and fiscal policy more generally, the broader Republican legislative strategy for the next two years, and the ways in which the 2024 Presidential election will start to impact politics as 2023 progresses. 

Macro & Markets in 2023

December 19, 2022 13:00 - 20 minutes - 14.2 MB

Paul talks with various members of abrdn’s Research Institute about their forecasts for next year. They discuss the probability of recession, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, what’s happening in emerging markets, and what all this means for markets. 

Prospects for global housing markets

December 09, 2022 14:00 - 24 minutes - 16.9 MB

Paul talks to Adam Slater, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, about housing markets in the major economies. House prices, home sales and housing starts have been on a downward trend in many countries, driven by rising mortgage rates and squeezed real incomes. But there are important differences between economies, which Paul and Adam explore in this podcast.

Minding the gap at COP27

November 24, 2022 12:00 - 21 minutes - 14.5 MB

Luke Bartholomew speaks to Eva Cairns, Head of Sustainability Insights & Climate Strategy at abrdn, and Jeremy Lawson, head of abrdn’s Research Institute, following their return from COP27. They assess how much progress was made in bridging the credibility, ambition, justice, and adaptation gaps that needed addressing to make COP27 a success. They also discuss whether the COP process is fit for purpose to deliver sustainable climate policy.   

Monetary and fiscal policy in the coming recession

November 11, 2022 14:00 - 26 minutes - 18.1 MB

Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the optimal – and likely – monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coming recession. Is it back to negative rates and quantitative easing, or will persistent inflation mean interest rates remain high even as recession hits? And are governments able to spend big to support the economy, or will they be constrained by what markets will fund and they can afford?

China’s economy after the 20th Party Congress with Neil Thomas from Eurasia.

November 04, 2022 16:00 - 31 minutes - 21.5 MB

Luke Bartholomew is joined by Bob Gilhooly, Senior Economist at abrdn, and Neil Thomas, a political risk analyst at Eurasia, to discuss the key takeaways from China’s 20th Party Congress. With President Xi further cementing his power over the Party and China, the risk of policy shocks and mistakes has arguably increased, while in the short-term China continues to deal with the challenge of zero-Covid and the property sector.

China’s economy after the 20th Party Congress with Neil Thomas from Eurasia.

November 04, 2022 16:00 - 31 minutes - 21.5 MB

Luke Bartholomew is joined by Bob Gilhooly, Senior Economist at abrdn, and Neil Thomas, a political risk analyst at Eurasia, to discuss the key takeaways from China’s 20th Party Congress. With President Xi further cementing his power over the Party and China, the risk of policy shocks and mistakes has arguably increased, while in the short-term China continues to deal with the challenge of zero-Covid and the property sector.

Britain’s market meltdown, with James McBride

October 13, 2022 09:00 - 31 minutes - 21.8 MB

In this episode Luke Bartholomew is joined by Jeremy Lawson, abrdn’s Chief Economist, and James McBride from Forefront Advisers to discuss the recent economic, political, and market turbulence in the UK. With the Bank of England forced to intervene in the government bond market, the economy likely to fall into recession, and the government’s fiscal plans in disarray, they consider how likely the government is to survive the forthcoming fiscal announcement and beyond.  

Britain’s market meltdown, with James McBride

October 13, 2022 09:00 - 31 minutes - 21.8 MB

In this episode Luke Bartholomew is joined by Jeremy Lawson, abrdn’s Chief Economist, and James McBride from Forefront Advisers to discuss the recent economic, political, and market turbulence in the UK. With the Bank of England forced to intervene in the government bond market, the economy likely to fall into recession, and the government’s fiscal plans in disarray, they consider how likely the government is to survive the forthcoming fiscal announcement and beyond.  

Why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates so quickly?

September 20, 2022 10:00 - 21 minutes - 15 MB

In this episode, Luke Bartholomew speaks to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist after the developments in the US economy and markets over the summer, and look forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and mid-term elections. The Fed is gearing up for another mammoth rate hike, continuing the sharpest adjustment in monetary policy settings since the Volker era.  This continued urgency provides a pushback to markets which had been flirting with the possibility of a more cautious Fed, and co...

Europe in crisis.

July 27, 2022 08:00 - 22 minutes - 15.3 MB

In this episode, Luke and Paul discuss the many challenges facing Europe at the moment, including: inflation, recession, energy prices, political uncertainty, and monetary policy tightening.   The key takeaways are  ·         Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone is at all-time lows. While these surveys probably overstate the degree of economic weakness, this kind of sentiment deterioration cannot help but have some impact on people’s spending patterns and so the economic outlook. Near term r...

Will China drop zero-Covid? - with Adam Wolfe

July 19, 2022 08:00 - 26 minutes - 18.4 MB

In this episode, Paul Diggle talks to abrdn’s Senior Emerging Market Economist Robert Gilhooly and Absolute Strategy Research’s EM economist Adam Wolfe about the outlook for China. They discuss zero Covid, the 20th Party Congress, and President Xi’s policy agenda.  The key takeaways are:  ·         Chinese growth is rebounding out of the Shanghai lockdown, but this recovery may not prove particularly durable while zero-Covid remains in place. Already, there are renewed outbreaks requiring ...

The politics of monetary policy – with Helen Thompson

July 12, 2022 10:00 - 25 minutes - 17.8 MB

In the second of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century. In this episode they discuss monetary policy, including the geopolitical and democratic consequences of US monetary hegemony, the future of central bank independence, and the likelihood of a recession.   The key takeaways are:   ·         Both the Great Mo...

The geopolitics of energy markets – with Helen Thompson

July 05, 2022 14:00 - 28 minutes - 19.8 MB

In the first of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century. In this episode they discuss the geopolitics of energy supply, and how this helps to explain aspects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the green transition, and other features of the global economy.  The key takeaways are:   Energy markets provide a vital frame t...

The Next Recession

July 01, 2022 14:00 - 22 minutes - 15.7 MB

In this podcast, co-hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle speak to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist about the US-led global recession we are forecasting.  The key takeaways were:  We expect the US economy to fall into recession in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening.  History suggests that when inflation gets this high and unemployment this low, hiking cycles overwhelming end in recessions. That is because the way to rebalance the economy and tame in...

How will the energy transition impact Asia?

June 13, 2022 13:00 - 27 minutes - 18.6 MB

In this episode our co-host Paul Diggle chats with Jeremy Lawson and Anna Moss about the impact of the energy transition in Asia.    The key takeaways are: ·         The Asia Pacific region is a crucial battleground in the world’s fight to decarbonise. Over the past 20 years, almost all the net increase in global emissions has come from APAC. That means it’s a region replete with investment opportunities and challenges as part of the energy transition. ·         abrdn’s climate scenarios...

Macro Bytes: Cryptocurrencies

May 30, 2022 14:00 - 24 minutes - 17 MB

In this episode, our hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle discuss the recent collapse of a large crypto asset project, and the knock-on effects on the wider crypto market with Jonathan Hobbs from Finimize. The key takeaways are: ·         The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin Terra and associated coin Luna was caused by design flaws in its supposed stabilisation mechanism, exposed by a rising rates regime, which invited speculative attack ·         The financial challenges involved...

Can the UK government solve cost of living?

May 13, 2022 12:00 - 28 minutes - 19.6 MB

Focusing on the UK local elections, Paul Diggle, Luke Bartholomew & Jeremy Lawson discuss the economic challenges facing the UK government and what it all means for the potential future general election and for investors

Can the UK government solve cost of living?

May 13, 2022 12:00 - 28 minutes - 19.6 MB

Focusing on the UK local elections, Paul Diggle, Luke Bartholomew & Jeremy Lawson discuss the economic challenges facing the UK government and what it all means for the potential future general election and for investors