Macro Bytes
124 episodes - English - Latest episode: 9 days ago -Macro Bytes
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We're not epidemiologists but …
February 24, 2021 15:00 - 41 minutes - 28.3 MBIf there’s one thing that’s certain about the pandemic, it’s uncertainty. So how do economists and investors make forecasts in this environment? Our latest episode explains why drifting into epidemiology has become an occupational hazard when it comes to forecasting the macro-economy and markets. Our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist and head of the ASI Research Institute. Together they discuss the complex process of economic forec...
The limits of fiscal policy - how much is too much?
February 17, 2021 11:00 - 36 minutes - 24.9 MBBiden’s bold fiscal stimulus proposal has sparked a wider debate in the investment community about the limits of fiscal policy. Should we worry about governments running large deficits and building up huge debt loads? Or are the costs of doing too little greater than doing too much? In this episode, our host Paul Diggle is joined by fellow economists from the Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute, James McCann and Luke Bartholomew. Together they discuss the role of fiscal policy ...
The return of European politics
February 10, 2021 11:00 - 40 minutes - 28 MBHow are EU institutions handling the Covid challenge and what are the prospects for EU recovery? With Draghi trying to form a new government in Italy, upcoming elections in Germany to decide who replaces Merkel, and a difficult vaccine rollout being a potential source of euroscepticism, it's safe to say that 2021 has change in store for European politics. This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle return our attention back to Europe and bring us up to speed on the...
Vaccine politics - nationalism vs diplomacy
February 03, 2021 15:00 - 38 minutes - 26.4 MBScience meets politics in this week’s episode of Macro Matters. As the race continues to roll out a coronavirus vaccine, what should be a positive step towards normality has turned into a political debate over supply. Are we seeing the emergence of vaccine nationalism, and what does this mean for Covid diplomacy? This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Robert Gilhooly, our in-house Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist. Together th...
Vaccine politics - nationalism vs diplomacy
February 03, 2021 15:00 - 38 minutes - 26.4 MBScience meets politics in this week’s episode of Macro Matters. As the race continues to roll out a coronavirus vaccine, what should be a positive step towards normality has turned into a political debate over supply. Are we seeing the emergence of vaccine nationalism, and what does this mean for Covid diplomacy? This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Robert Gilhooly, our in-house Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist. Together th...
Biden's first 100 days - with Clayton Allen
January 29, 2021 18:00 - 36 minutes - 24.8 MBAs America’s new president is sworn in and the Biden administration officially begins, our host Stephanie Kelly explores what to look out for in Biden’s first 100 days. What changes are in store for fiscal policy and what does this mean for investors? This week we're joined by Clayton Allen, director of Eurasia Group, who brings a wealth of knowledge having worked in both the Senate and the White House. Joining Clayton is James McCann, our own in-house expert and Senior Global Economist. P...
Macro minutes: the future of cities with Bridget Rosewell
January 28, 2021 14:00 - 35 minutes - 24.3 MBToday we are joined by the economist Bridget Rosewell to talk about the post-pandemic future of cities. Bridget is a leading expert in the economics of cities, transport, economic infrastructure, and she was Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to the Greater London Authority for a decade in the 2000s.
The future of cities - with Bridget Rosewell
January 22, 2021 19:00 - 35 minutes - 24.3 MBThe pandemic has wide-ranging implications for the future of cities. Lock-down measures have reduced the use of office space, halted the hospitality sector and changed how we use transport systems. But is city-flight a temporary phenomenon? Or are cities more resilient than we think? In this episode our host Paul Diggle discusses the post-pandemic future of cities with the esteemed British economist Bridget Rosewell. Once the Chief Economist for the Greater London Authority and now Non-Exec...
7 questions for 2021
January 14, 2021 19:00 - 31 minutes - 22 MBWhat does 2021 have in store for the global economy? Rested after the festive break, our hosts Paul Diggle and Stephanie Kelly regroup for the first episode of 2021. Together they look forward to the year ahead and answer 7 questions shaping our economic and political outlook • How big is the drag from renewed lockdowns? • How quickly will vaccines be rolled out and gain macroeconomic traction? • What does the Brexit deal actually mean? • What will a Biden Presidency do? • Is the global eco...
Innovation: the Covid silver-lining? With Felicity Burch, CBI
December 16, 2020 19:00 - 32 minutes - 22.3 MBIn our final podcast of 2020, we're joined by Felicity Burch, Director of Innovation and Digital at the CBI and James McCann, Senior Economist at ASI. What does the future hold for business? How important is innovation and why does research matter for economists and investors alike? In part 1, we consider why innovation matters for business, the "silver-lining" effect that Covid has had in incentivising firms to innovate, and the challenge companies face to keep up the momentum as the world...
Climate change and why it matters to investors
December 11, 2020 18:00 - 40 minutes - 27.8 MBClimate change. A force shaping our economy as well as our geography. Our experts in this week’s podcast bring the climate agenda into sharper focus. What risks does climate change pose for the markets and how can investors use climate scenarios to better inform their understanding of the risks and opportunities in the coming decades? Part 1 highlighting the risks that climate change poses to life as we know it and then moves to the importance of climate scenarios for investors seeking to u...
Inflation in the wake of a global pandemic
December 04, 2020 18:00 - 29 minutes - 20.2 MBInflation or deflation? It’s a question fuelling debate across the investment community. Our experts on this week’s episode discuss the impact of the Covid crisis on inflation and the likelihood of fiscal dominance. Our host Paul Diggle is joined by two familiar faces from the Aberdeen Standard Research Institute, giving us a trio of economic expertise - Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist and Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist. Part 1 focuses on the outlook for energy ...
Populism and the pandemic – with Barry Eichengreen
November 27, 2020 18:00 - 35 minutes - 24.3 MBThis week on Macro Matters we welcome the renowned professor and author, Barry Eichengreen to discuss polarised politics in the eye of a Covid storm. How has coronavirus fueled the populist narrative and what does this mean for investors? Part 1 begins by touching on themes from Barry’s published works and explains the key drivers of populism and its impact on economic growth. Diving into the pandemic, the discussion turns to Covid’s unequal economic impact whilst also covering the US Elect...
China and the crisis that never comes – with Tom Orlik
November 19, 2020 18:00 - 41 minutes - 28.7 MBThis week we welcome Bloomberg’s Chief Economist, Tom Orlik, to discuss China and the widespread prediction that it's a bubble about to burst. Is the Chinese economy really on the cusp of collapse? Or have doom-mongers been getting it wrong? Part 1 will cover the frequent oversimplification of the Chinese economy by outside observers, the long-term growth trajectory and how China performed during the Coronavirus outbreak. Part 2 questions the impact of the US Election on US-China relations...
Berlin, Brexit and Biden - A spotlight on Europe
November 13, 2020 19:00 - 42 minutes - 29.3 MBThis episode turns our attention to Europe. What does a Biden win mean for Brexit, and what is the future of Europe after Angela Merkel steps down next year? Part 1 follows on from the US Election to discuss the result and its impact on EU-US relations. Part 2 dives deeper into the EU agenda covering the pandemic, Europe post-Merkel, Brexit, and the longer term challenges facing the Eurozone.
US Election results special
November 04, 2020 18:00 - 29 minutes - 20.6 MBAs the dust begins to settle after a huge turn-out both on and before polling-day in the US, Senior Political Economist Stephanie Kelly and Senior Economist Paul Diggle invite Chief Economist, Jeremy Lawson, back on to the show to take stock of the standings as they unfold. What are the early indicators? What happens next? And how are the markets responding so far? A note on timing: we recorded the podcast at 11.00 UK GMT and 06.00 Washington DC time on November 4th 2020.
The US Election and the outlook for markets and investors
October 28, 2020 18:00 - 36 minutes - 24.8 MBAs the US Election race enters its final week before the big day in November, there could only really be one topic of conversation: who is in the lead, and what do the different possible outcomes mean for the markets and for investors? Our Senior Global Economist, James McCann, joins us from Boston, Mass. to discuss the state of the race with Senior Political Economist, Stephanie Kelly. What would be the best outcome for growth forecasts? What's the worst? And in the heat of the high-pro...
Economics, people and the pandemic - is there a missing link?
October 22, 2020 17:00 - 35 minutes - 24.2 MBWhat lessons can economists learn from how a virus spreads, and what pitfalls should they avoid? Our guest, the distinguished economist Paul Ormerod, suggests that the macro-modellers of the Covid-19 virus might have missed a trick; put simply, they didn’t properly take into account the fact that people faced with a situation – any situation – are highly likely to change their behaviour as a result. And if economics is all about human behaviour, should economists have been as closely invol...
Northern Ireland, state aid ... and fish
October 15, 2020 17:00 - 29 minutes - 20.2 MBBrexit and Covid-19 are still the topics on everyone's lips, like it or not. But taking a longer view, where does this leave UK politics - and what does sustained political volatility mean for investors? Stephanie Kelly's guests this week are James McBride, from Hanbury Strategies, and Luke Bartholomew, a regular Macro Matters guest and a senior economist at the ASI Research Institute. Join them as they discuss how Covid and Brexit play with the Westminster world, what the outlook is for U...
Did furlough work?
October 08, 2020 17:00 - 32 minutes - 22.6 MBWe're talking to Senior Monetary Economist, Luke Bartholomew, on whether furlough worked and discussing the outlook for the UK and broader European labour market, as some of the support schemes start to roll off. Then it's a chat with Research Economist, Abigail Watt, on the rise of big data, which economists are using to track the economy in real time during this crisis.
The state of the race (U.S. Presidential election, with Robby Mook)
October 02, 2020 17:00 - 37 minutes - 25.5 MBIn the wake of a spectacularly ill-tempered U.S. Presidential election TV debate, who is leading the race, and what does this mean for our economic forecasting? We welcome our guest, American political strategist, Robby Mook. Robby has run multiple major election campaigns for the Democratic Party and most notably was the campaign manager for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. Stephanie Kelly interviews Robby, kicking off with an easy question - who's going to win the race for ...
Assessing Abenomics
September 23, 2020 17:00 - 41 minutes - 28.7 MBThis week, we grade Abenomics and look ahead to the next era of Japanese politics, and we assess the impact of the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the US Presidential race. Paul Diggle is joined by three socially-distanced guests to discuss the fallout from the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. Together they grade the three arrows of Abenomics (spoiler: nobody gets an "A") and discuss the challenges facing the new Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, and how all this affect...
Is a cold, COVID winter on the way?
September 18, 2020 19:00 - 33 minutes - 23.1 MBOur lead topic is the cheery prospect of a cold, Covid winter - are further lockdowns on the horizon, and how much more can the economy can take? We leaven this with a lively discussion on inflation, and ask whether the crisis will have inflationary or disinflationary consequences. Clue: we think worries about inflation rising out of control are overblown - but you'll have to listen in to hear the rest.
The Federal Reserve’s new mandate
September 11, 2020 19:00 - 34 minutes - 23.9 MBThis week’s lead topic is the Federal Reserve’s new mandate. Our guests are James McCann, Senior Economist, based in Boston, Massachusetts, and Luke Bartholomew, Senior Monetary Economist. Then we’ll be picking up where we all left off on Brexit, and assessing the latest dramatic moves from the UK Government and the EU.