Thoughts on the Market
1,164 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 1.2K ratingsShort, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.
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Episodes
Special Episode: Taking the Temperature of Individual Investors
September 30, 2021 23:08 - 9 minutes - 9.14 MBOn part one of this Special Episode, Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discusses the new shape of retail investing and the impact on markets. ----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets Welcome to Thoughts of the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research. Lisa Shalett And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Andrew Sheets And today on the podcast, we'll be di...
Michael Zezas: Will the Democrats Go Big or Go Small?
September 30, 2021 02:26 - 2 minutes - 2.62 MBThe eventual size of the Democratic Party’s fiscal policy legislation – for taxes and for spending – will likely impact the bond market as well as the policy landscape. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between US public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesd...
Jonathan Garner: Economic Surprises = Earnings Surprises
September 29, 2021 19:52 - 3 minutes - 3.21 MBWith incoming global growth data missing consensus expectations, emerging markets equity earnings revisions could fall back into negative territory for the first time since May 2020. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research. Along with my colleagues, bringing you their perspectives, today I'll be talking about a key recent development, which is the deterioration in t...
Matt Hornbach: Inflation Fears Drive Central Bank Actions
September 28, 2021 22:46 - 3 minutes - 3.36 MBReal interest rates are on the rise in Europe and the US and central banks are responding. This may impact currency markets headed into the fall. Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy, explains. -----Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about global macro trends and how investors can interpret these trends for ...
Mike Wilson: The Process Matters
September 27, 2021 22:10 - 3 minutes - 3.61 MBOur analyst’s equity positioning models have held up well and we continue to rely on an understanding of historical cycles as we move through this mid-cycle transition. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the fina...
Andrew Sheets: The Fed Shuffles Toward the Exit
September 24, 2021 20:26 - 3 minutes - 3.03 MBThis week, the Fed hinted that a taper announcement in November could be in store, adding one more wrinkle into events that investors will need to navigate this fall. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, Septembe...
Michael Zezas: Two Potential Catalysts to Watch for Fall Volatility
September 23, 2021 19:50 - 3 minutes - 3.06 MBWhy two D.C. policy items—the bipartisan infrastructure framework and debt ceiling deliberations—could add one more complication for equities markets. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between US public policy and financial markets. It's Thursday, September 23rd,...
Special Episode: How Will China Manage the Housing Downturn?
September 22, 2021 23:45 - 8 minutes - 7.8 MBOn this special episode, we address key questions around struggles in China's property sector, as well as any potential spillover into the broader economy. ----- Transcript ----- Chetan Ahya Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist for Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing and I'm Robin Zing Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist. Chetan Ahya And on this special edition of the podcast we'll be diving into the path forward for China's economy amid challenges ...
Special Episode: Unpacking Climate Action in Congress
September 21, 2021 21:18 - 8 minutes - 7.65 MBThis Climate Week, we preview environmental policy proposals within the $3.5 Trillion Budget Reconciliation Bill. What will it mean for investors and the response to climate change? ----- Transcript ----- Jessica Alsford Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jessica Alsford, global head of Sustainability Research team at Morgan Stanley. Stephen Byrd And I'm Stephen Byrd, head of Morgan Stanley's North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy Industries. Jess...
Mike Wilson: The Final Chapter of the Mid-Cycle Transition?
September 20, 2021 22:19 - 3 minutes - 3.55 MBAlthough many commentators point to the S&P 500 near all-time highs as a rationale for higher stock prices, markets may be facing a bumpy road ahead. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, September 20th, at 12:30pm in New...
Special Episode: Untangling Global Spikes in Commodity Prices
September 17, 2021 23:12 - 10 minutes - 9.18 MBWe look at how soaring energy prices in Spain, gas prices in the U.S. and aluminum prices globally could all be linked to coal mines in China. ----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, I'm Andrew Sheets, chief cross asset strategist for Morgan Stanley. Martijn Rats And I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist and head of the European energy team. Andrew Sheets And on this special episode, we'll be talking about how soaring energy pri...
Special Encore: A Good Time to Borrow?
September 16, 2021 20:57 - 3 minutes - 3.61 MBOriginal Release on August 13th, 2021: Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this mean for equities, credit and government bonds? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the gl...
Michael Zezas: What’s on Tap for U.S. Taxes?
September 15, 2021 19:41 - 2 minutes - 2.27 MBAlthough markets have been preparing for the notion of tax hikes, a flurry of recent legislative activity may suggest where tax policy will eventually land. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, Septem...
Graham Secker: Re-engaging with Cyclical Value in Europe
September 14, 2021 19:35 - 3 minutes - 3.23 MBWith the summer growth scare in Europe possibly nearing an end—and relatively inexpensive valuations—cyclical stocks in Energy, Banking and Autos may be worth a fresh look.
Mike Wilson: Keeping an Eye on Earnings Estimates
September 13, 2021 23:08 - 3 minutes - 3.39 MBEquities markets may be sending mixed messages on the economy and growth, but ultimately, it’s all about the earnings. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains.
Andrew Sheets: Are Clouds Gathering for U.S. Equities?
September 10, 2021 20:19 - 3 minutes - 3.12 MBWhy stretched valuations, growth worries and a cavalcade of uncertain events in September and October could mean a challenging fall for U.S. stocks.
Michael Zezas: Season of Confusion in D.C.?
September 09, 2021 21:50 - 3 minutes - 2.92 MBNegotiations on a number of government policy points such as taxes, fiscal spending and deficits have hit a fever pitch. Here are three potential outcomes through year-end.
Jonathan Garner: Rising Risks for Taiwan Equities
September 09, 2021 19:28 - 3 minutes - 3.31 MBTaiwan equities have been a standout among equities in 2021, but factors such as softening tech spend and slowing retail trading activity suggest challenges ahead.
Ellen Zentner: Keep Calm and Taper On?
September 08, 2021 22:22 - 3 minutes - 3.3 MBWeak U.S. economic data in August has renewed concerns that a growth scare is underway. Is this a sign of things to come or just a speed bump in the expansion?
Special Encore: So, What’s the Story?
September 07, 2021 21:00 - 3 minutes - 3.46 MBOriginal Release on August 30th, 2021: Although a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing when the narrative could shift.
Special Encore: Never a Dull Moment in the Political Economy?
September 03, 2021 16:00 - 3 minutes - 3.24 MBOriginal Release on August 25th, 2021: For investors, U.S. fiscal policy, tax increases and U.S.-China relations are three key items to watch as we head toward fall. We outline potential outcomes.
Andrew Sheets: Autumn Days Are Here Again
September 02, 2021 21:12 - 3 minutes - 2.91 MBAs summer transitions to fall, investors will be facing a host of key market events. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets covers the ones to watch.
Special Episode: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil
September 01, 2021 23:06 - 7 minutes - 7.14 MBNorway has made great strides in electric vehicle adoption over the last decade, so why has its oil consumption remained largely unchanged?
Matt Hornbach: Treasuries, Tapering and Tightening
August 31, 2021 20:50 - 3 minutes - 3.55 MBAfter last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, markets cheered Fed Powell’s implied messaging on the pace of rate hikes. Did markets read it right?
Mike Wilson: So, What’s the Story?
August 30, 2021 22:13 - 3 minutes - 3.36 MBAlthough a key component of investing is getting the narrative right, perhaps a bigger component is knowing when the narrative could change.
Andrew Sheets: Singapore Offers an Alternative to U.S. Equities
August 27, 2021 21:35 - 2 minutes - 2.63 MBIn a world where U.S. equities are currently less attractive, investors need options for places to put their money — this is one.
Special Episode: Is This the Moneyball Approach to Corporate Bonds?
August 26, 2021 21:20 - 7 minutes - 7.18 MBEquity investors have applied factor-driven strategies for years, but the approach has seen slow adoption in bond markets. Here’s why that may be changing.
Michael Zezas: Never a Dull Moment in the Political Economy?
August 25, 2021 19:53 - 3 minutes - 3.17 MBFor investors, U.S. fiscal policy, tax increases and U.S.-China relations are three key items to watch as we head toward fall. We outline potential outcomes.
Adam Jonas: Space Investing - Ready for Takeoff?
August 24, 2021 18:04 - 4 minutes - 3.97 MBRecent developments in space travel may be setting the stage for a striking new era of tech investment. Are investors paying attention?
Mike Wilson: The U.S. Consumer Takes a Break
August 23, 2021 21:44 - 3 minutes - 3.35 MBAn old adage says 'never bet against the US consumer's willingness to spend,' but new data on demand and consumption may say otherwise.
Andrew Sheets: For Markets, What Lies Beneath?
August 20, 2021 21:01 - 3 minutes - 3.03 MBDespite a fair amount of uncertainty, global stock prices have continued to march higher. But under the surface, markets have become a bit more discerning.
Special Episode: Kids, COVID, and the Return to School
August 19, 2021 22:50 - 10 minutes - 9.94 MBAs back-to-school approaches, we take a close look at school safety, child case numbers amid Delta and the path ahead for vaccines for younger children.
Michael Zezas: Deciphering the Infrastructure Chess Game
August 18, 2021 21:10 - 2 minutes - 2.29 MBLast week, the U.S. Senate advanced both a budget blueprint and a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. What can investors expect from the House of Representatives?
Graham Secker: Three Reasons European Equities Remain Strong
August 17, 2021 21:38 - 3 minutes - 3.37 MBDespite recent uncertainty caused by the Delta variant, regulatory changes and the potential for a stronger dollar, European Equities are showing renewed strength that could last to the end of the year.
Mike Wilson: Navigating a Tricky Transition
August 16, 2021 21:43 - 3 minutes - 3.61 MBA strong second quarter earnings season wraps up this week, but lower than consensus earnings for next year and lower valuations could make the road ahead a bit bumpier.
Andrew Sheets: A Good Time to Borrow?
August 13, 2021 22:14 - 3 minutes - 3.51 MBAcross numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this mean for equities, credit and government bonds?
Special Episode: Unpacking the Appetite for Thematic Investing
August 12, 2021 21:51 - 7 minutes - 6.47 MBInvestor interest in thematic equity products such as ETFs has rapidly surged, particularly among tech themes. Why the momentum may only grow.
Jonathan Garner: Demystifying China's Regulatory Reset
August 11, 2021 21:18 - 3 minutes - 3.52 MBOn this episode, we examine how China’s regulatory reset on fintech, big tech, cryptocurrency and carbon emissions could affect China equities and business models.
Michael Zezas: The Return of U.S.-China Trade Tensions?
August 10, 2021 21:11 - 3 minutes - 2.92 MBAlthough the pandemic put U.S.-China trade tensions on a low simmer, several catalysts could now turn up the heat. Three takeaways for investors.
Mike Wilson: Could Upbeat Jobs Data Actually Weigh on Stocks?
August 09, 2021 21:03 - 3 minutes - 3.48 MBJuly’s strong labor market report suggests the Fed may be behind the curve on monetary policy— and markets could soon start to notice.
Andrew Sheets: It Is Time to Worry about the Growth Outlook?
August 06, 2021 19:18 - 3 minutes - 2.87 MBThe Delta variant, slow progress on U.S. infrastructure and some recent disappointing data have markets worried about the economic recovery. Here’s another view.
Martijn Rats: Do Equities Markets Believe the Price of Oil?
August 05, 2021 21:53 - 3 minutes - 3.2 MBAre current oil prices sustainable? Although oil prices have rallied sharply over the last year, the performance of oil equities has been modest by comparison.
Michael Zezas: The Long and Winding Fiscal Road
August 04, 2021 20:43 - 2 minutes - 2.74 MBThe U.S. infrastructure bill is just the start of a larger fiscal process through year-end that may bring above average growth and higher U.S. Treasury yields.
Matt Hornbach: Are U.S. Treasuries Like Used Cars?
August 03, 2021 21:45 - 4 minutes - 3.89 MBFalling Treasury yields have investors wondering whether prices will keep rising. But some insight could be gained from the trajectory of U.S. auto prices.
Mike Wilson: The Inevitable Removal of Policy Support
August 02, 2021 22:31 - 3 minutes - 3.32 MBAs a strong earnings season wraps up, pressure is mounting on the Fed to reduce its current level of emergency monetary support. What will this mean for stocks?
Special Episode, Part 2: Digging Deeper into Delta
July 30, 2021 22:35 - 7 minutes - 7.13 MBOn this episode we continue our close look at the COVID-19 Delta variant including boosters, the outlook for fall/winter and the impact on markets.
Special Episode: Digging Deeper into the Delta Variant
July 29, 2021 23:13 - 9 minutes - 8.89 MBOn this episode, we take a closer look at the Delta variant including infectiousness, possibilities of mutation, and whether we’re stuck with COVID-19 long-term.
Michael Zezas: U.S. Infrastructure - Deal or No Deal?
July 28, 2021 20:12 - 2 minutes - 2.21 MBInvestors have been closely watching headlines on the bipartisan infrastructure plan, but for markets, what may matter most is the broader fiscal policy plan.
Mike Wilson: The Last Phase of Mid-Cycle
July 27, 2021 20:56 - 4 minutes - 3.95 MBU.S. equity markets have transitioned through three of four typical changes associated with a mid-cycle transition. But the next, final phase—Fed tightening—may have the most impact.
Chetan Ahya: Will a Debt Hangover Hamper Recovery?
July 26, 2021 19:47 - 3 minutes - 3.53 MBHow can governments worldwide manage the historically high debt incurred in response to the COVID-19 crisis? The answer may be a bit counterintuitive.