144 – Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC East

Sully continues his 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series with the AFC South.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC East

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 144 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East.

Dallas Cowboys

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Tony Pollard – Overall ADP 119 RB47

Making the decision to buy Tony Pollard should not be taken as my dislike for Ezekiel Elliott, because the complete opposite is true. For the longest time this offseason, Zeke has been undervalued, as of now at RB6 his value is where it should be. Pollard in my opinion will see a larger percentage of snaps and touches this season.

2021 will be the year of the backup running back, due to the 17th game. Its not that the backups will take over, its the fact they will be used more. Tony Pollard in 2020 saw an uptick in touches as Elliott appeared to have given up on 2020. Pollard is PFF’s fifth-highest-graded running back over the past two years, he tied with Nick Chubb for the highest rate of missed tackles forced per rush, and tied with Derrick Henry for the most yards after contact per rush. Now imagine him with an increased workload.

Player I Am Selling

Amari Cooper – Overall ADP 42 WR16

Amari Cooper found himself in the exact same category for me entering 2020. After 5 weeks of play I looked like a complete fool. Cooper was WR8 thru the first five weeks and only a season ending injury to QB Dak Prescott saved me.

This season, Cooper is more appropriately priced, making this sell a little more difficult. CeeDee Lamb makes it a little bit easier. I see Lamb taking the WR1 title in Dallas by mid season. Cooper had off season ankle surgery, missed OTAs as a result allowing Lamb to be used all over the field vs. the slot where he primarily was in 2020. Cooper still has a lot of tread on his tires and I do see him as a top-24 WR, I just see him closer to 20 than to 16 so I will go ahead and sell Amari once again.

Take the Flyer

Blake Jarwin – Overall ADP 175 TE21

Having a share of the Dallas Cowboys offense on your fantasy roster in 2021 is highly recommended. This offense should be a high scoring large volume passing offense. The team is full of weapons and the defense is still one of the weaker ones despite some upgrades thru the draft.

I was on board the Blake Jarwin hype train last season and I had him ranked inside my top-12 TE. That hype train derailed in week one versus the Los Angeles Rams when Jarwin tore his ACL and was lost for the season. You don’t have to draft Jarwin in most Fantasy leagues, but he should emerge as a key waiver-wire addition if things go right. And it won’t be a surprise if Jarwin becomes a weekly starting option in all leagues. Beat the waiver wire and take the flyer.

New York Giants

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Daniel Jones – Overall ADP 178 QB25

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Last season I had Jones as a buy, loved his upside and he was in a word horrific. Well here we are again. I am banking on Jones taking the next step to a relevant fantast QB in his third season.

The Giants went and got Jones some new weapons in Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Rudolph, and hopefully Saquon Barkley is back at 100 percent. Along with Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram, this is the best receiving corps Jones will have during his tenure with the Giants. He has plenty to prove, and believe he will deliver. He could end up a breakout Fantasy quarterback in 2021 — or this could be his last season as a starter for the Giants. One thing is for sure if he falters he won’t be a a buy in 2022.

Player I Am Selling

Kenny Golladay – Overall ADP 66 WR26

I like Kenny G, I really do, but I do not like this ADP. The fifth round is too early in my opinion. The Giants offense is loaded with pass catching options. I get that Golladay just got paid, and I get he is likely the top target in this offense.

What I am not sold on is the amount of targets he is going to get. Darius Slayton is still in this offense, as is Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon is back. In addition the Giants used a first round pick on Kadarius Toney for some unknown reason and you have to figure that he has some sort of role in his rookie season. Jason Garrett is a tight end target offensive coordinator, and the Giants added Kyle Rudolph to pair with Evan Engram. This offense outside of Saquon is likely a mess in 2021, and from week to week we will have no idea who to start, let alone start with any confidence. If you want a Giants WR on your roster wait until the 16th round and select Sterling Shepard.

Take the Flyer

Sterling Shepard – Overall ADP 197 WR68

Ok I get I just finished saying that the offense outside of Barkley is going to be a mess, but come on WR68 for Sterling Shepard, that is a ridiculous value.

Shepard is surrounded by kickers, QBs we have no confidence in and tight ends like Austin Hooper. Shepard averaged 13.5 PPR points a game last season, and 14.2 the season before that. Yes there is a lot of competition in the offense for targets but in round 16 his value is too ridiculous to pass up.

Philadelphia Eagles

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Jalen Hurts- Overall ADP 90 QB13

Jalen Hurts gave Philadelphia a spark at quarterback over three games late in his rookie season. From Week 14 to Week 16, he gained 1,085 combined yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. His ability to run (38/238/1) was a significant factor to his success when adding the Eagles’ problems on the offensive line.

His ability to run sets a high floor and adds consistency to his game in the fantasy market. Running QBs are gold. Hurts will likely run the ball between eight and 10 times in most games, setting his rushing floor around 800 yards. Hurts has a legit shot at joining Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson as the only QBs to rush for 1000 yards in a season. With a modest 225 passing yards, he could total nearly 5,000 total yards. He has an excellent chance of finishing inside the top-12 and I currently have him ranked as QB8, as a result I am buying.

Player I Am Selling

Miles Sanders – Overall ADP 34 RB18

This one is very close for me. I have Sanders ranked 38th overall and as my RB19. So technically based on his current ADP he is a sell. What gives me pause is the injury to rookie DeVonta Smith. The injury could easily leads to an increase in targets for Sanders while Smith is out.

My decision to list Sanders as a sell comes down to the behavior of the Eagles this offseason. They entered the offseason with Sanders and Boston Scott. In the offseason, they drafted Kenneth Gainwell, claimed Kerryon Johnson off waivers and brought back Jordan Howard. By the wat Boston Scott is still on the roster. These are not actions of a team that has a lot of confidence in their number one running back. In the third round I am looking elsewhere.

Take the Flyer

Jalen Reagor – Overall ADP 179 WR63

Reagor was thought to be a WR that could make an impact as a rookie. In the end, injuries’ and horrific QB play led to Reagor being more bust than boom.

Reagor has the abilty to rebound this season, and he’s worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues. The Eagles need Reagor to be their No. 2 receiver behind rookie DeVonta Smith, and while Smith is out they will need him to be their No. 1. Reagor should see a healthy amount of targets from Jalen Hurts, and if Hurts is what I think he can be, that could help Reagor produce in a big way. He profiles as a high-end No. 3 receiver that currently has a WR63 ADP. Easy flyer here.

Washington Football Team

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Antonio Gibson – Overall ADP 17 RB12

This time last season I had Gibson as a buy. Last season he had an overall ADP of 156 and RB52. Gibson was one of my better calls last season. What a difference a season makes. He was a round 13 pick a year ago, this season he’s a round two selection.

Gibby scored at least 12 PPR points in eight of his first 11 games. A toe injury in Week 13 slowed him down over the final five games of the season, but he should be healthy coming into training camp. What makes Gibson’s success as a RB in his rookie season all the more impressive is Gibson is a converted receiver that had 33 career carries at Memphis. There’s plenty of room to grow for Gibson, and with the talk of an increased role in the passing game, Gibson has RB1 overall upside, and he is a buy in round two.

Player I Am Selling

Logan Thomas – Overall ADP 85 TE9

Logan Thomas came out of nowhere a season ago and finished as the TE4. You have got to love the wildness of the TE position. Thomas averaged 11 PPR points a game, a total that would have seen him finish as WR37.

Thomas benefitted from having Alex Smith and his check down style at QB a year ago. The converted QB was targeted 110 times last season, his previous career high was 28. In addition to WR Terry McLaurin, the Football Team added Curtis Samuel in free agency, and selected Dyami Brown in the draft. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic return as well. Logan Thomas is going to struggle to come close to his target total of 2020, and I have him as sell as a result.

Take the Flyer

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Overall ADP 163 QB24

Ryan Fitzpatrick has never played for a team that has made the post season in his 16 NFL seasons. That has nothing to do with fantasy but I find it fascinating stat nonetheless. Admittedly I am a Ryan Fitzpatrick fan, mainly because he is so fun to watch and easy to root for.

On the field Fitzpatrick has scored at least 20 Fantasy points in 12 of his past 14 starts. He has a quality receiving corps in Washington led by Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Don’t be surprised if you end up starting Fitzpatrick at some point this season in all leagues. He is the perfect late round QB to pair with rookie QBs like Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Fitz has the abilty to carry you until those rookies start, and perhaps beyond. Sitting as QB24, he’s absolutely worth the flyer in my opinion.

Thank you for listening to episode 144 – 2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

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