145 – Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC South

Sully continues his 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series with the AFC South.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC South

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 145 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC South.

Houston Texans

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC South

Player I Am Buying

Brandin Cooks – Overall ADP 88 WR36

Sorting through the Houston Texans depth chart for a player I want to buy is not the easiest task I have had. This team looks to be the favorite to be picking first overall next spring. There are holes all over this team on both sides of the ball. With that said, Brandin Cooks jumps out to me as the obvious buy candidate.

I get that Tyrod Taylor or perhaps even Davis Mills will be the Texans QB this season. I also am fully aware that is likely not a good thing. Here is the deal the worst passing offense in the NFL last season (Baltimore) had 257 completions for 2,919 yards. As bad as Houston likely is, there will be some offensive production and I believe most will flow thru Brandin Cooks. When healthy he is a legit NFL talent. In his seven NFL seasons, Cooks has a top-12, four top-24, and a top-36 season on his resume. Drafting him at WR36 in round 7 is a value add, and I am buying.

Player I Am Selling

David Johnson – Overall ADP 84 RB32

I have been a David Johnson fan and supporter for years. That support ends here. Johnson has shown in recent seasons that the burst he once had is gone. The offensive line he is playing behind certainly doesn’t help much either. Outside of Laremy Tunsil, there is really nothing there.

Adding to my dislike is the Texans depth chart. Joining Johnson in the backfield in Houston this season is Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead. I don’t really like any of them and I certainly don’t see any giving us any relevant fantast production on a weekly basis. I am passing on all Texans’ running backs this season and if I have to roster one it would be Lindsay who has an ADP of 160 and RB49.

Take the Flyer

Nico Collins – Overall ADP 272 WR83

Simply put, Houston almost certainly will have to throw often to have a sniff in any of their seventeen games in 2021. If you have to roster a Texan, I would suggest it is in the passing game. Enter Nico Collins.

Collins college quarterbacks failed to take advantage of the mismatch he presents and the Michigan’s team identity certainly wasn’t feeding their receivers. Collins is a breakout candidate and someone I expect will be a much better professional player than a collegiate one. Collins has size and a second gear needed to gain separation and win the battle on contested catches. Collins is more of a dynasty league target, but he’s currently priced as undrafted and he is another player that should exceed his ADP with ease.

Indianapolis Colts

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC South

Player I Am Buying

Michael Pittman Jr. – Overall ADP 107 WR43

When the Indianapolis Colts opted to not add any significant pass catchers this offseason, it indicated that they are comfortable rolling with the guys they have, and the best of the bunch is Michael Pittman JR.

Michael Pittman enters his second season as a potential breakout candidate and should be drafted as the first Colts receiver off the board. As a rookie, Pittman earned the trust of the coaching staff immediately, playing 92% of the snaps in Week 2 and consistently playing 80% or more of the snaps after coming back from IR in Week 8. We saw glimpses of his upside, especially with a five-catch, 90-yard performance in the Colts’ playoff loss to the Bills. I suspect that the Carson Wentz injury drives his ADP down even further just adding to the potential draft day value. Pittman will emerge as the top option for the Colts QB regardless of the name on the back of the jersey.

Player I Am Selling

Jonathan Taylor – Overall ADP 8 RB7

Johnathan Taylor is a really good running back, and Johnathan Taylor is over valued. He went on an absolute tear down the stretch and was the RB1 overall in weeks 13-17 averaging 26.1 PPR points a game. Of significance were his opponents; Houston twice, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. All of them ranked in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed.

He’ll enter 2021 as the top option in Indy and is one of the few backs with the potential to challenge for the No. 1 overall spot if he earns a larger role in the passing game. Carson Wentz’s injury hurts JT, and Quentin Nelson’s injury hurts him even more. I like Johnathan Taylor, I really do but at this ADP I just can’t pull the trigger. If he falls into the middle of the second round he changes from a sell to a buy without question.

Take the Flyer

Parris Campbell – Overall ADP 229 WR73

Since the Colts selected him 59th overall in 2019, Campbell has managed to play in just nine games due to injuries. In 2020, it was a knee injury suffered in the second game of the year that kept him out the rest of the season. I still think there is some of the guy we saw at Ohio State (90 catches, 1,063 yards and 12 touchdowns in his senior season).

Unfortunately we just haven’t gotten to see enough of him in the NFL to gauge his true potential. Campbell should go undrafted in most leagues, as his ADP would indicate. He could be worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues as a post-hype sleeper, and I am willing to take the flyer here.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC South

Two Player I Am Buying

Laviska Shenault – Overall ADP 110 WR45

Laviska Shenault managed to do something in Jacksonville last season that he struggled to do at Colorado and that was stay healthy. Shenault appeared in 14 of the Jags 16 games and totaled 691 total yards on 76 touches, good enough for a WR46 finish.

He can do a bit of everything, but he’s especially dangerous with the ball in his hands, so you have to think coach Urban Meyer will find more ways to get him opportunities. Think Percy Harvin or Curtis Samuel at Ohio State. With Trevor Lawrence at QB, the quality of passes he’s seeing should be quite a bit better, than those coming from Gardner Minshew Mike Glennon and Jake Luton. He’ll have to compete with D.J. Chark Travis Etienne, and Marvin Jones for targets, but it won’t surprise me if Shenault emerged as the No. 1 option rather quickly. If you can get Shenault where he is currently priced, he could prove to be one of the best values in Fantasy.

Player I Am Selling

D.J. Chark – Overall ADP 78 WR33

Full disclosure, I have never been a fan of D.J. Chark as a fnatasy asset. In his three seasons, Chark has delivered WR142, WR17, and WR49 finishes. The interesting part of his WR17 finish in 2019, was the split. He was WR5 in the first half and WR47 in the second half. I’ll let you all decide which was the outlier season.

Chark should be in a better situation with Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball, and he showed flashes with the subpar QB play in 2020. However, with up-and-comer Laviska Shenault and new addition Marvin Jones competing for targets, Chark is no sure thing to be the No. 1 or even No. 2 option in a Jacksonville offense that is likely pretty run-heavy given how Urban Meyer’s teams operated in college. Chark carries 1,000-plus yard upside and could be a big bounce-back candidate this season, but I’m betting against it and as a result I would feel much better with him as my No. 4 WR on Draft Day. At this ADP I am selling.

Take the Flyer

Marvin Jones Jr. – Overall ADP 135 WR51

It seems like year after year, Marvin Jones is a value on draft day. It also seem like year over year Marvin Jones outperforms his ADP. 2021 in my opinion is more of the same.

Jones signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the offseason and he is a boom-or-bust No. 3 receiver who is best drafted as a No. 4 if you are seeking a positive return on your investment. Jones has major upside. He scored 38 PPR points in Week 17 last year and topped 25 points in three other games. He also has a 4 score game in 2019 on his resume. At the same time Jones has also been held below 50 yards in more than half of the games he’s played the past two seasons. Jones is also at the age where we could start to see decline. What I see for Jones in 2021 is a mentor role for WRs like Chark and Shenault, and a safe WR to target in round eleven.

Tennessee Titans

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC South

Player I Am Buying

Julio Jones – Overall ADP40 WR14

On paper, Julio Jones being traded to the Titans may seem like a bad fit for his Fantasy value, but I believe that the opposite is true. Ryan Tannehill has been a more efficient deep-ball thrower and overall QB than Matt Ryan since he landed with the Titans. The Titans are also an excellent system fit for Jones, who should be able to eat up the intermediate areas of the field with second level defenders forced to account for Derrick Henry.

Julio has averaged 9.8 targets, 121 air yards, and 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game in his career. The Titans have 224 vacated targets and 2,143 air yards available entering the 2021 season. Julio is also not this wildly injury prone WR either that talk is straight up ridiculous. Drafted as the second WR off the board behind AJ Green in 2011, Jones has played in at least 14 games in 7 of 10 seasons. The other 3 were 13 in his rookie season, 5 in 2013, and 9 last year. In the seven seasons in which he has played 14 or more games, he has seven top-12 finishes. WR14 might be high for some, but I feel he is appropriately valued and as a result I am buying.

Player I Am Selling

Derrick Henry – Overall ADP 3 RB3

I have written and podcasted about Derrick Henry a lot this season. Back in Episode 140, I told why you should sell him in Dynasty, and in Episode 141 my hot take was that Derrick Henry will finish 2021 as a mid to back end RB2. Do I feel as though he really will be a low RB2, no, but I absolutely have no interest in Henry at 3rd overall.

He finished third in PPR scoring in 2020 and will almost certainly go off the board in the first six picks in all drafts this season. He’s had at least 380 carries in each of the last two seasons, including the postseason, so it’s fair to wonder if he’ll break down at some point, even though we haven’t seen it yet, I believe it’s coming and as soon as this season. Henry rushed for 2000 yards last season the 8th RB in league history to do so. The previous seven all saw significant declines in total yards and yards per carry the following season and five missed time due to injury. I know the public thinks Henry is different and I am rather confident they felt the same way about the other seven members of this exclusive club. I am selling without hesitation here.

Take the Flyer

Darrynton Evans – Overall ADP 222 RB63

The Titans spent a third round pick on Darrynton Evans in the 2020 NFL draft. Taking a running back on day two matters because it drastically increases the odds he eventually matters. That seemed to indicate Evans would be the primary backup to Derrick Henry. Naturally if I feel Henry experiences regression in 2021, I also feel Evans is a benefactor.

There’s an opportunity for him to be the backup to Derrick Henry as well as a reliable weapon in the passing game, which could make Evans a potentially valuable Fantasy option. He isn’t worth much more than a late-round flier as a potential lottery ticket, and that is a flyer I am willing to take.

Thank you for listening to episode 145 – 2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC South

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