143 – 2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Sully continues his annual Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series with a look at the AFC East.

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 143 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

The past three seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled; Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer.  Approaching the 2021 season, I am happy to bring you the fourth annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Stefon Diggs – Overall ADP 14 WR3

With an ADP this high, there is not much wiggle room. Stefon Diggs however is one of few that I am buying at this ADP. The reality is I have to pick someone in the second round and I would be thrilled if it were Diggs.

Diggs went from a good Fantasy receiver prior to 2020 to one of the best, and he should continue to produce quality stats this season. He’s worth drafting as a top-five Fantasy receiver as early as Round 2 in all leagues. In his first year in Buffalo in 2020, Diggs led the NFL in receptions with a career-best 127 while also producing career highs in targets (166) and yards (1,535), along with eight touchdowns. He scored at least 14 PPR points in all but two games, including more than 20 PPR points seven times. Josh Allen should continue to lean on Diggs, and he has the chance to repeat as the league leader in receptions and targets. Its Diggs’ consistency that lures me in here and I see Stefon Diggs as a WR that could finish as the top scoring WR in fantasy this season.

Players I Am Selling

Josh Allen – Overall ADP 29 QB 2

Buying Stefon Diggs, makes it a little hard to understand why I would be selling his QB. The answer is simple, I prefer to draft my QB later and target other skill player positions in round three. Allen is properly valued, and he is the QB2 in my opinion and has a legit chance to repeat as the QB1.

I had Allen as a sell last season when his ADP was 90th and he was QB10, clearly that was a huge mistake. I figured he would run less with the addition of Zack Moss to pair with Devin Singletary. Well, he continued to use his legs and 2020 was his third season in a row of at least 400 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He’s a dual-threat quarterback in a pass-happy offense, and he should continue to post dominant stats. While he did lose John Brown this offseason, the addition of Emmanuel Sanders should help offset that. And Diggs, Cole Beasley and hopefully the emergence of Gabriel Davis should help Allen continue to excel. He should again be one the best Fantasy quarterbacks in 2021, and I very well will regret selling him once again.

Take the Flyer

Gabriel Davis – Overall ADP 187 WR64

Fresh off a successful rookie campaign in 2020, Gabriel Davis quickly established himself as a serious threat to score at any opportunity. Davis posted 35 receptions on 62 targets for 599 yards and 7 touchdowns. He was on the field more than many expected, largely aided by the injury to John Brown. As a result, Davis played on 73% of the snaps, including 88% over the final six weeks.

I understand that Davis struggled when John Brown was healthy, and that the Bills did bring in Emmanuel Sanders for a reason. With that said Davis currently has an ADP of round 15, and late round 15 at that. WR64? I must have been watching a different player last season. Taking the flyer on Davis is a near no-brainer.

Miami Dolphins

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Myles Gaskin- Overall ADP 46 RB21

Myles Gaskin finished 2020 as RB27 with 123.2 PPR points in 10 games, an average 12.3 PPR points a game. He had eight games with at least 12 PPR points, and he had six games with at least 19 total touches.

The only addition the Dolphins made to the running back room was to sign free agent Malcolm Brown. Brown won’t threaten Gaskin in terms of touches, but may steal away some goal line looks. Gaskin’s abilty to catch the football, (47 targets, 41 receptions) makes him a buy for me. In an improved offense with what I believe will be improved QB play, Gaskin has top-15 upside and as a result he is a buy.

Player I Am Selling

Mike Gesicki – Overall ADP 116 TE12

Mike Gesicki should continue to be the No. 1 tight end in Miami this season, and as such, he remains a starting Fantasy tight end in all leagues. He’s worth drafting with a late-round pick in all formats. Gesicki has proven himself over the past two seasons, averaging 8.5 PPR points in 2019 and 10.3 PPR points in 2020.

Entering 2021 the Dolphins added Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, and that should impact Gesicki in a negative way. Waddle more than Fuller as Waddle looks to man the slot, an area that Gesicki flourished in the past two seasons. No TE lineup in the slot more than Mike Gesicki in 2020, and I see that changing in 2021. In addition, Miami drafted Hunter Long as Gesicki is in the final year of his contract. Long shouldn’t impact Gesicki this season but the selection of Long would indicate the franchise is not as enamored with their TE as the fantasy community is. Mike Gesicki in round nine is a rather easy sell for me.

Take the Flyer

Tua Tagovailoa – Overall ADP 152 QB22

As a rookie, Tagovailoa struggled and scored more than 18 Fantasy points just twice. Miami however, added weapons this offseason to help Tagovailoa, including Will Fuller in free agency and rookie Jaylen Waddle with a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. The hope is a full offseason and a renewed investment to Tagovailoa helps him perform like he did during his career at Alabama. He can still become a quality Fantasy quarterback in 2021, but Fantasy managers will need to see it first before fully trusting him in most leagues, hence the ADP of 152 and QB22.

He’s only worth drafting with a late-round flier in deep, one-quarterback leagues, and that is exactly what we are doing here.

New England Patriots

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Jonnu Smith- Overall ADP 134 TE17

The Patriots added free agent TE Jonnu Smith on day one of free agency this offseason. That move was wildly accepted by the fantasy community. The Patriots added free agent TE Hunter Henry on day two of free agency this offseason, that move was not accepted nearly as well. The thought is that the two free agents will cannibalize each other in the New England offense. Clearly I do not share that opinion.

Jonnu is the best receiver on this roster. His QB tends to favor the TE, and Jonnu Smith will line up all over the field for the Pats in 2021. Smith is an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands, and a smart offense will find ways to get him the ball all over the field. He’s a threat to find the end zone whenever he touches it, a rare quality for a tight end. The Patriots are likely to be a run first team once again in 2021, and that lowers the ceiling for Jonnu. Do I see him in the top-12, no, but he has the upside. TE17 is disrespectful, and Jonnu is an absolute buy at his current ADP.

Player I Am Selling

Hunter Henry – Overall ADP 127 TE14

New England’s offense figures to be a little more pass friendly in 2021, and Henry is one of several new parts of this offense. Competing for targets is nothing new for Henry, who had a career-best 6.6 per game in 2020 with the Chargers. However, in 55 career games, Henry has scored 21 times and has just 13 outings with at least 70 yards. His PPR per-game average tumbled from 12.1 to 10.0 last season, and with 10 career catches on passes 20-plus yards downfield, he’s never been a legit deep threat.

I don’t get how Hunter Henry is coming off the board ahead of Jonnu Smith. If you’re starting Henry, you’re hoping he scores, and in this version of the Patriots offense, that’s tough to count on from week to week. Hunter scores in the red zone, and the red zone is where Cam Newton tucks it and runs. Henry is no better than a late-round flier with uncertain expectations — don’t take him until Round 13 at the earliest, making him a rather easy sell here.

Take the Flyer

Cam Newton – Overall ADP 198 QB28

I am well aware that many feel that Cam Newton’s days as the Patriots starting QB are numbered. I do believe that Mac Jones is the future in New England. I also believe that in redraft I don’t care much about the future. New England suffered thru a losing season a year ago, and all indications are they have little interest in doing that again in 2021. Love him or hate him, Cam Newton gives this team a better chance of winning than the Alabama rookie.

Newton as we are all well aware, replaced Tom Brady in New England last year and started the season strong with consecutive games of at least 25 Fantasy points. That however is where the train started coming off the tracks. Things went downhill from there, including a stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list. After testing positive for Covid, Cam never looked the same again, and to be completely honest he didn’t look that great before he had the virus. The reality is this. I believe he plays the majority of the games for New England this season, if not all of them. Cam ran for 12 touchdowns last season, that is hard to find in a QB and that is what makes him worth the flyer. At his ADP he is being drafted in the mid 16th round, I don’t see anyone with the upside Cam has this late in your drafts. If he fizzles out and Jones takes over, cut him just like you have likely done every year with your 16th round selection.

New York Jets

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

Player I Am Buying

Corey Davis – Overall ADP 138 WR54

For those in the Dynasty community, Corey Davis likely will forever be a bust. For those playing redraft in 2020, he was was one of the biggest surprises in Fantasy. Davis in 2021 has an opportunity to emerge as a reliable No. 3 Fantasy WR as the Jets’ No. 1 option.

He was basically left for dead in Tennessee last season, so much so that the Titans declined his 5th year option making his signing with the Jets possible. The question now is whether he can be a No. 1 for the Jets, and whether the Jets offense will be good enough for it to matter. Davis is a nice target as a bench WR with some upside. I have to buy someone off this roster and Davis as WR54 makes him the obvious choice.

Player I Am Selling

Michael Carter – Overall ADP 81 RB31

This is what I hate about this series, having to sell players you like mainly because they are the only player of any real value on their roster. I like Michael Carter, I drafted him rather often in the second round of my dynasty rookie drafts. I liked the pick then And I like the pick now.

Michael Carter accumulated over 4,000 total yards during his four seasons at North Carolina in a backfield that he split with fellow rookie RB Javonte Williams. Carter is a sell only because I am mildly concerned with his size. He is 5’8″ and 201 pounds. I don’t see him running over anyone at the pro level anytime soon. Carter in Dynasty makes sense he is an asset that you can wait on, I do fell he will be an effective NFL back. In redraft however he is a sell. A rookie RB with a rookie QB likely isn’t the greatest combination and even at RB31 you can likely do better.

Take the Flyer

Denzel Mims – Overall ADP 247 WR80

I was not a Denzel Mims fan last season when the buzz after the Senior Bowl thrust attention upon him. I felt he was green and he would need a lot of development. He struggled as a rookie, and ended up finishing as the WR106 averaging 6.7 PPR points a game in the 9 games he played.

The hope here is with offseason programs and what has to be a better offense that Mims can be fantasy relevant. Currently he is going undrafted in redraft leagues, and even I think that is wrong. Grab Mims with your last pick of the draft and take the flyer on him. At his cost its an easy move to make.

Thank you for listening to episode 143 – 2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

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