S1 EP 28: Results of Part 1 of Our Colorado Survey

In this episode, we discuss part one of our recently released survey of likely 2018 voters in Colorado.

Segment 1: Survey of Likely 2018 Voters in Colorado

We begin by discussing decisions about survey weighting, and why we chose to weight the survey as we did. Simply put, a survey of likely 2018 voters is far more relevant for any political observer than a survey of registered voters. Among likely 2018 voters, 47% approve and 49% disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President. Among unaffiliated voters, 40% approve and 53% disapprove of the job he is doing. While these numbers could certainly be worse, we discuss how Republican candidates in Colorado would like to see stronger numbers for the President, since in a lot of ways the 2018 election will amount to a referendum on his first two years in office. The generic Congressional ballot shows that voters prefer the Democrat candidate to the Republican candidate by a 5-point margin, 39% to 34% respectively. Among unaffiliated voters, the generic Democrat candidate leads the generic Republican candidate by a 13-point margin, 34% to 21% respectively. This is a good measurement of the political environment as we currently stand, and we discuss how this seems to show a built-in advantage for Democrats in Colorado, but it is important to note that a significant number of voters, especially unaffiliated voters, are still undecided at this point. Among all respondents, 34% approve of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing and 58% disapprove. Again, this is a number that Republican candidates would love to see improve substantially between now and next November. It also shows how President Trump remains more popular in Colorado than the Republicans in Congress as a whole. Among likely 2018 voters, 40% approve of the job Senator Cory Gardner is doing, 37% disapprove, and 23% do not have an opinion. Among unaffiliated voters 37% approve of the job Senator Gardner is doing and 35% disapprove. We discuss how any looking to either praise or criticize Senator Gardner can probably find what they’re looking for in these numbers. That being said, his approval ratings among women, Latinos and unaffiliated voters remain strong. The top three federal issues from President Trump’s agenda that voters would like to see addressed the most are: creating jobs and growing the economy, funding transportation and infrastructure projects, and reducing government spending and the national debt. We discuss how these really aren’t the areas that have been focused on by the administration thus far, which would seem to suggest an opportunity for the President to improve his standing with Colorado voters between now and 2018. However, to do so he will need to shift focus and concentrate predominantly on policies related to jobs, the economy and transporation.