Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Chautauqua's Beitner: Trade wars could cause a technical recession

Brian Beitner, portfolio manager of the Chautauqua International Growth Fund, said that trade wars with China have caused both sides to advance purchases in order to avoid tariffs, which could result in a purchasing slowdown soon, which could trigger a technical recession, not enough to result in massive layoffs but enough to send shock waves through the equity markets. Beitner said the case for international investing -- especially in China -- remains strong, despite the dangers. Also on th...

Chautauqua's Beitner: Trade wars could cause a technical recession

Brian Beitner, portfolio manager of the Chautauqua International Growth Fund, said that trade wars with China have caused both sides to advance purchases in order to avoid tariffs, which could result in a purchasing slowdown soon, which could trigger a technical recession, not enough to result in massive layoffs but enough to send shock waves through the equity markets. Beitner said the case for international investing -- especially in China -- remains strong, despite the dangers. Also on th...

JOHCM's Caputo: 'Different parts of the market are sending mixed messages

Giorgio Caputo, head of multi-asset strategies at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, said that the equity market is acting like the economy is strong and can keep rolling, while the bond market is nervous that trouble is mounting, leaving the Federal Reserve and its rate strategy as what may be the primary determinant of how the market goes for the rest of the year. Also on the show, Deborah Kearns of BankRate.com discusses a survey showing that homeowners often have buyer's remorse about their...

Zacks' Blank: It will be August before we get a bull move

John Blank, chief equity strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research said investors should expect surprise rallies and retracements, but the market isn't going to make a strong bull move until August or later. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussed their recent survey on how many Americans expect to miss a credit-card payment this year, David Trainer of New Constructs talked about the Lyft initial public offering and why the company -- with virtually no pr...

Merk sees 'rockier road;' Gilburt calls for a downturn, then rebound

In a day filled with talk about the market, Axel Merk of the Merk Funds said the market is getting late in its current cycle and that it is likely to have a tougher tmie making gains going forward. He suggested that investors rebalance their portfolios to lock in gains and reposition themselves for the tougher sledding to come. Before that, however, Matt Harris of HighTower Wealth Management noted that the market's technical signals are suggesting that a slowdown is coming, but he said the c...

Fritz Folts from 3EDGE: With US equities stretched, consider emerging markets and gold

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management said that while domestic markets look like they can continue to run, valuations are stretched, making emerging markets and gold much more appealing right now. Folts noted that he is completely avoiding Europe and Japan right now and noted that economic and market conditions going forward will depend on the skill of the Federal Reserve in avoiding trouble. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks financial technology...

Oppenheimer's Memani: 'Things are proceeding according to plan'

Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, said that the global economy and global growth are softening, but the policy framework is holding strong, allowing the markets to move forward and stay positive for the long-term. Memani said he believes the Fed is done with rate hikes for the year, and noted that the recent rally may have been overdone, meaning that stocks could tread water for awhile before continuing to climb. Also on the show, Michael Sheldon and Peter Lang of...

ChartPattern's Zanger: 'This is a time to be on the sidelines'

 Dan Zanger, chief technical analyst at ChartPattern.com said that the market is likely to chop sideways -- stuck between the 2,650 support and 2,810 resistance levels on the Standard and Poor's 500 -- until we see the direction of the next quarter's earnings releases, which start coming out in mid- to late April. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussed the top hedge-fund stocks from 2018, author Nathan Latka talked about his ideas for getting rich  even if you lack capita...

New Constructs' Trainer: 'Value investing as it's known today isn't REALLY value investing'

After watching Warren Buffett apologize for taking a $20 billion write-down for Berkshire Hathaway's investment ni Kraft Heinz, David Trainer of New Constructs said the problem highlights trouble ahead for value investors, who he says have been looking at the wrong metrics and following the pack, which has them headed for trouble. Also on the show, Brandon Thurber of Regions Asset Management said that the market is going through a 'pro-risk on environment for equities, at least for now.' whi...

Neal Dwane: Interest rates can't be raised much from current levels without causing crisis

Neal Dwane, global strategist at Allianze Global Investments, said he believes current market optimism over trade issues with China may be misplaced, noting that the excessive optimism could bring an end to recent relief rallies, and he noted that the bigger potential for trouble lies in a potential global debt crisis where central banks have taken on so much debt that they can't buy more, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to raise rates without tanking the market and the economy. Also ...

Oakmark's Nygren: A miserable time for stocks was good for businesses

Bill Nygren, legendary manager of the Oakmark Fund, discussed how the disappointment of the market late in 2018 actually was a great time for investors like him who want to buy businesses with solid long-term prospects at reasonable prices. With prices falling but earnings staying high, Nygren said investors could take advantage of the market becoming disconnected from its fundamentals. Currently, he likes financial stocks, consumer durables like automotive and industrial companies, and he's...

WisdomTree's Weniger: Get yourself ahead of the next investment story

Jeff Weniger, director of asset allocation at WisdomTree Asset Management, said that investors should be looking beyond trade wars and Brexit to what's really going to move markets, and noted that he expects emerging markets to outperform and Europe to underperform once the headlines get past current concerns. Also on the show, Michael Sheldon and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discuss -- and disagree on -- the parts of the market they like and worry about now. Ted Rossman of CreditCards.c...

AAM's Colyer: We're fully invested for as long as there is positive earnings momentum

Scott Colyer, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management, has long advocated that investors avoid fighting the Fed, but right now he suggested that they continue riding earnings trends higher, even as they become wary of a building recession. Colyer noted that investors should be looking to miss a recession, which he sees coming but potentially not for a year or more. Also on the show, aauthor Bart McDonough discusses cyber security and how consumers can better protect themselves,...

Fleming: The housing market is more sensitive to mortgage rates than we've seen in the past

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial, said the housing market is under-built and the lack of inventory has made the market overly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, a trend he expects to continue at least through the end of the current rate-hike cycle. Also on the show, Matt Schultz discusses the latest survey from CompareCards.com, David Trainer puts two big-name stocks in the Danger Zone, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Capital Management has the Market Call.

Fiduciary Trust International's Sanchez: We rode through a crisis in confidence

Ron Sanchez of Fiduciary Trust Co. International said that investors have gotten past the confidence-shaking drop of December, but they should be cautious now because stories about global growth, interest rates and international trade events will go a long way to determining whether the market can continue climbing this year. Also on the show, Michael Gayed of Pension Partners said that the market's technicals also should put investors into wait-and-see mode, as they suggest that stocks are ...

William Blair's Singer: With market troubles ahead, get back to basics and fundamentals

Brian Singer, head of the dynamic allocation strategies team at  William Blair  Co., said that fundamentals are going to re-assert themselves on asset prices, noting that when central banks around the world are tightening, value tends to be in favor. Singer also said that emerging markets are perhaps the best value and have the most potential return right now, and urged investors to consider emerging-markets equity. That was directly on point with the ETF of the Week, where Tom Lydon of ETFT...

David Goerz: China, emerging markets facing big headwinds

David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, said he does not like the looks of China and emerging markets, prefers small-cap domestic stocks and cyclical sectors like industrials and financials as he sees a market with the potential to add a few more percentage points to the upside over the rest of the year. Unlike most recent Big Interview guests, Goerz still sees the Fed raising rates three times this year. Also on the show, Richard Lewis and Jeremiah Riethmille...

H.D. Vest's Hickey: 'The gains for 2019 were taken in the first month'

James Hickey, chief investment strategist at H.D. Vest Financial Services said that the strong gains realized by the market in January are likely to be what investors experience for the year. While anticipating a flat market for the rest of 2019, Hickey said he does expect some volatility to make things look better or worse throughout, and he ntoed that he is tilting his portfolios toward small-cap stocks, and avoiding Europe and cutting back on emerging markets investments. Also on the show...

Morgan Creek's Yusko: 'In the US, we are as overvalued as we have ever seen'

Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, said in the Market Call that while he is nto expecting a bear market in short order, he does see trouble ahead for the domestic markets, noting that his metrics show large-cap stocks as being 84 percent overvalued. With that in mind, he expects 'bad things to happen' domestically, even as he finds some global valuations appealing. Also ont eh show, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com discusses America's problem with car-loa...

Mellon's Reinhart: 'We just have to live through the first half of the year'

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon said in the Big Interview that between tariff problems and economic issues in Europe, investors must wait for the second half of the year for solid growth. That said, economic growth will be sufficient to avoid recession but not enough to satisfy investors who want to see more global expansion. Also, Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors suggested that investors should be long in stocks, while expecting a bear market to arrive in six t...

Brusuelas: No recession in 2019, but we're at latter stages in the business cycle

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that his rcession-probability model is showing a 20 percent chance of an economic downturn this year, but that investors should expect a recession in 2020 or '21, noting that while it should be a 'garden-variety recession,' the situation with the Fed could make any meltdown much worse. Also, economist Edward Goldberg of NYU said that American and China are coming to a truce -- and not a win or a loss -- in the trade wars, Tom Lydon looked at an eme...

Collective Wisdom: HighTower experts are split over the prospects for emerging markets

After a superior 2017 and a dismal 2018, the outlook for emerging markets stocks and bonds is changing again and Richard Lewis from the Nulman Group did not like the looks of those markets while his HighTower Advisors colleague Jeremiah Reithmiller of Sarian Strategic Partners was much more optimistic about the prospects for companies based in developing nations. Also on the show, author Larry Swedroe discusses his new book on a successful retirement, Coryanne Hicks of U.S. News and World Re...

ClearBridge's Kagan: We probably don't have a recession for a couple of years now

Michael Kagan, portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments, said that the United States economy -- unlike some around the world -- is looking strong right now; compared to relevant periods in history, he said Americans are likely to avoid a recession for several years. That said, he noted in the Market Call interview that he would be selling any stock that is not producing profits in these market conditions. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal made a banking company his 'Stock...

MacKay's Dowden: Bond market has opportunities mixed with dangers

David Dowden, portfolio manager at MacKay Municipal Managers, said he expects the Federal Reserve to do one more rate hike -- during the first half of the year, or earlier than many other observers expect -- but he said that the bond market holds a lot of challenges for investors, like an abundance of muni-bond options that are creating a buying opportunity while alos potentially creating value traps. Also on the show, Kelly Anne Smith of BankRate.com discussed how much money people expect t...

YCG's Yacktman: Look for 'enduring pricing power'

In his first appearance on the show in more than two years, Brian Yacktman of YCG Enhanced Fund discussed how enduring pricing power and industry leadership and innovation makes for stocks that investors that can deliver superior long-term results in all market conditions, and he singled out a few stocks that make the grade in the Market Call. Also on teh show, we rebroadcast a recent interview with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, Dick Burns of the NHP Foundation discusses seniors' financial fea...

Baird Funds' Pierson: Look for 'a continuation of gradual'

Warren Pierson, senior portfolio manager at the Baird Funds, said the markets currently are re-calibrating after the December fall and the January rebound, getting used to more reasonable levels of growth in both earnings and gross domestic product. The result should be market that sustains a slow-but-steady positive course for 2019. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an emerging-markets bond fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck discusses how investors need both an iron will and...

Evermore Global's Marcus: Sell positions you like to buy positions you love

David Marcus of  Evermore Global Advisors said investors need to be pruning and enhancing their portfolio during times like these -- when markets are shifting and corporate fortunes are changing quickly -- to maintain a portfolio of investments they love, rather than settling just for things they like. Owning investments you love lets you stick with them through tough times in the market. Also on the show, Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily discusses investors' flagging level of optimi...

Schutte: Market's fundamentals are driving the market forward

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth management Co., said that while the market has plenty of reasons to get nervous, it also has plenty of impetus to move up throughout the year, largely due to strong underlying fundamentals. He also said that he expects emerging markets and large-cap domestic securities to outperform in the year ahead. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal is in a selling mood with his 'Stock of the Week,' Ted Rossman of Cred...

Trainer: Misleading p-e ratios make for stock troubles

David Trainer of New Constructs put three stocks -- Landec Corp., Brooks Automation, and Host Hotels and Resorts -- in the Danger Zone noting that all three had misleading price-earnings ratios that could lead investors to think the stocks were rising in value when in fact he feels their true worth is collapsing. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses American's financial security, we rebroadcast a recent chat on the market with Patrick O'Hare of Briefing.com, and Eric Mars...

LendingTree's Kapfidze: The Fed may have made a mistake this week

Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, said in the Big Interview that he thinks the Fed may have overreacted to increased market volatility by signalling that it may put off further rate hikes. Now the market is reacting like they won't happen, which could lead to trouble later in the year when he thinks the central bank will resume its upward trend. Also on the show, comedian Gaby Dunn talks about her new book on being bad with money, Leonard Wright of the AICPA discusses America...

Lydon: Consider riding the wave with the semiconductor ETF

Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made the VanEck Vectors Semicnductor ETF his 'ETF of the Week,' noting that the industry has been on the rise and -- despite recently volatility caused by high-profile earnings misses this week -- remains a worthwhile play for as long as it stays above its long-term average. Also on the show, Dan Keady, chief financial planner at TIAA, discusses volatility, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com covers a survey on how Americans don't expect their finances to improve this yea...

T. Rowe Price's Levenson: 4th quarter was a disconnect

Alan Levenson, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price & Associates, said in the Big Interview that while investors should not expect the big returns they have seen through much of the bull-market run, they also should not expect a recession. He noted that the poor end to 2018 was a downturn that occurred despite continued economic growth and said he does not expect market declines to be the dominant story for the year ahead. Also on the show, Greg McBride gives his take on the Fed meeting, La...

Rotblut: O'Reilly Automotive is poised to drive higher

Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal made O'Reilly Automotive his 'Stock of the Week,' noting that the auo-parts supplier has outperformed 88 percent of all stocks over the last six months and saying that the momentum could easily propel the stock 20 percent higher in short order. Also on the show, author Conor Richardson of 'Millennial Money Makeover,' Ken Shreve of Investor's Business Daily looking at the market's technicals, and Patrick Healey of Caliber Financial Partners with the Market Call.

New Constructs' Tranier: Netflix could be worth about six bucks per share

David Trainer of New Constructs hasn't liked Netflix (NFL) for a long time, but he put the stock back in the Danger Zone on Monday's show and said in the process that the shares -- currently trading for roughly $340 each -- could be worth as little as six dollars. Also on the show, ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses financial infidelity, author James Pattersenn talks about how he learned to trade like a stock market pro, and market pro Rich Moroney of Dow Theory Forecasts talked buys a...

Gradient's Bryan: In 'slowing-not-stopping environment,' follow the consumer

Jeremy Bryan, portfolio manager at Gradient Investments said in the Market Call that he's optimistic on both domestic and international stocks right now, noting that the economy continues to push forward, even if the pace has slowed. He's looking at consumer discretionary stocks and data-center REITs as sweet spots now. Also on the show, Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network discusses 'crash-test investing,' Chuck takes a question from an audience member whose family is affected fi...

Agather: Small-caps can give your dividend strategy a boost

Rolf Agather, managing director of research for North America at FTSE Russell, said that small-cap stocks can give a portfolio a surprising dividend boost and pointed out how it was small-cap dividends that really helped preserve decent results for small-caps in 2018. Also on the show, tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a 'fallen angel' fund his 'ETF of the Week,' author Tony Steuer discusses financial readiness, and we rebroadcast a recent interview with emerging markets expert Andrew Foster ...

Volatility brings opportunity, sometimes in cash

Lauren Pearson and Jim Ewing of HighTower Advisors discussed recent volatility and where it has created opportunity for investors, and both agreed that one spot for investors to consider now is cash, both because of rising rates but also to keep powder dry. international and emerging markets were among the other options discussed in the Collective Wisdom segment; also on the show, Ben Hunt of EpsilonTheory.com gives an interesting take on whether bad news is really good for the market, Hilar...

Via Nova's Gayle: Market is overcoming the bricks in the wall of worry

Alan Gayle of Via Nova Investment Management said that he does not see any problem with the market reaching and eclipsing previous highs. with the Standard and Poor's 500 getting back to 2,900 sometime this year. Meanwhile, D.r. Barton Jr. of 10minutemillionaire.com said the market's current snap-back rally has the market moving sharply upward, 'but in a healthy fashion.' Also on the show,m Charles Rotbut of AAII Journal has his Stock of the Week and Tim Melvin of the Heatseeker newsletter t...

Money Life's tribute to legendary investor Jack Bogle

Chuck had a long history of writing about and talking with Jack Bogle. In fact, when Bogle entered the hospital in December, he had planned to talk with Chuck in mid-January when he came out and got back to work. Instead, the founder of the Vanguard Group and the man behind index investing took a turn for the worst and died at age 89 on Jan. 16. In this special Martin Luther King Day tribute to Bogle, Chuck talks about his time spent with Bogle, reminisces with Matt Fink -- the longtime lead...

Briefing.com's O'Hare: The market rout in December set up a good year for 2019

Patrick O'Hare, chief market strategist at Briefing.com, said that investors have a ice opportunity to put some money to work based on how everyone was getting panicky over recession talk at the end of last year. He believes the market was overly negative, which has created opportunity, though he thinks gains will be muted and market action will be choppy. Also on the show, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses why most people would rather lose debt than lose weight this year, Chuck answ...

Chuck remembers Jack Bogle, investment legend and friend.

Jack Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group and the patron saint for small investors died at age 89 on Wednesday, and Chuck took time from the show to remember Bogle. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talked emerging markets with the 'Etf of the Week,' Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily discussed investor optimism, and Samuel Lee of SVRN Asset Management talked about ETFs in the Market Call.

Kiplinger's Payne: The economy is still doing pretty well.

David Payne, staff economist at Kiplinger.com, said that the economic underpinnings remain solid and strong, but aren't 'amazing,' which should lead to a year of heightened volatility and muted market returns. He noted that the market now seems to expect the Federal Reserve to be done with rate hikes at least until very late int he year. Also on the show, Bill Thrush, Richard Lewis and Ray Baraldi of HighTower Advisors discuss how they help consumers set appropriate expectations, Jason Repos...

Sincere: 'Investors are nervous and traders are confused'.

Technical analyst Michael Sincere said current market conditions have confused traders and made investors nervous and have made this one of the toughest markets he has ever seen. He's mostly defensive right now, watching the Standard and Poor's 500 and its behavior around the 2,600 level. Also ont he show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal reviews some of the sells he made in his 'Stock of the Week' feature during 2018, Everett Millman of Gainesville Coins talks gold, and Scott Ganschow, featu...

Seafarer's Foster: This year will be better in emerging markets.

Andrew Foster, portfolio manager at the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund, said he expects 2019 to be better for emerging markets than last year was, but warned that it won't be a great year, just better than the recent past. More importantly, with emerging markets coming back, he expects them to deliver the diversification benefits that they mostly have fallen short of in recent years. Also on the show, Gerg McBride of BankRate.com discusses they pay raises workers are expecting -- or not -- ...

TD Ameritrade's Kinahan: 2019 will see the domestic markets up 8 - 10 percent.

Berman: Definitely not a bear market right now.

Schuster: Government shutdown could ice the IPO market.

Nuveen's Doll: Lower growth, higher unemployment and much more to come in 2019.

Trainer discusses his misses from 2018.

Pring: We're in a primary bear market here.