McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast
384 episodes - English - Latest episode: 2 days ago - ★★★★★ - 8 ratingsEmpowering clients with commercial intelligence, supply chain expertise,
and risk management solutions.
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
Tightness in wet milled products is on the menu for 2022
January 21, 2022 21:52 - 8 minutes - 11.1 MBDrier capacity remains an issue for N.A. starch and dextrose Alternative grind uses pulling attention of wet millers away from traditional products Get your orders in with extended lead times! For deeper insights purchase our updated study, U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry: 2021 Edition Registration is open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022! Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL Register to attend in-person or virtually—your choice! Register here! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO ...
Another stop at Inflation Station! All aboard!
January 14, 2022 18:53 - 18 minutes - 25.1 MBCPI 7.0% Near 40-year high PPI 9.7% Highest since records began in 2010 O/N Fed funds target rate 00-0.25% The funds to CPI correlation suggests the Fed is well behind in raising rates Commodity and U.S. dollar reaction? Contingent on how fast other central banks move their own benchmark rates Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
January WASDE update & the Grain Stocks reports
January 12, 2022 23:45 - 19 minutes - 27.1 MBCorn Ending stocks up with slight increase in STU Ethanol use up Soy complex Changes to domestic balance sheet minor Reasonably bullish factors within some categories Wheat U.S. stocks improve with export and feed demand revisions Winter Wheat Seedlings report Did we see an increase in acreage? Sugar More sugar for Louisiana Expect adjustments in March Some talk about 2023 Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expe...
Grains & sugar: Sizing up next week’s WASDE
January 07, 2022 20:34 - 16 minutes - 23.1 MBGrains Exports category should be lowered for all the grains Will USDA factor in recent South American weather and lower production estimates? Watch out for the quarterly grain stocks and winter wheat seedlings report Sugar Minor changes to sugar production for next week's WASDE? Sugar market negotiations are quiet for now Supply chain issues continue to be the challenge Register now for our upcoming Cocoa Market Update webinar on Jan. 26! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Ex...
What the corn!? And other musings with Shawn & Eric
December 30, 2021 16:13 - 16 minutes - 22.6 MBWhat the corn!? Why are we above $6? Weather outlook in South America Specs add over 50,000 longs to corn positions in last three weeks Soybeans see biggest single week of buying in over a year Managed money traders still selling soybean oil Wheat interest mostly liquidations with a neutral bias Happy New Year! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
2022 market predictions: Part 2
December 22, 2021 16:13 - 9 minutes - 12.6 MBDairy Steep herd declines in 2021 have helped support and drive prices higher Will that trend continue in 2022 or will herd bounce back? Cocoa Grind expanded around the globe at an annual rate of 3.4% during 2021; can that trend continue? As we near the halfway point in the main crop season, arrivals are lagging Concerns are increasing for a mounting deficit in the upcoming season Energy Crude oil prices advanced from $47 to $70/barrel over the past year Inflation and rising inter...
Our 2022 predictions are in!
December 17, 2021 20:23 - 20 minutes - 27.8 MBWheat Total yield improves to 48-50 bushels per acre Ending stocks improve to over 583 million bushels CBD More states legalize CBD for food use Economy Covid finally fades from the economic landscape Inflation forces the Fed to raise rates more than 75bp S&P 500 ends lower than it begins Corn and soybean oil More volatility Tight commercial markets through FH 2022 Sugar World #11 price ranges $0.18 - $0.22 on lower Indian exports Domestic production repeats itself in 2022, be...
December WASDE: Silly, sleepy USDA
December 09, 2021 22:38 - 18 minutes - 26.1 MBCorn and soybean complex Domestic corn and soy unchanged Stronger yield for soybean oil Lower global soybean ending stocks Wheat U.S. and global balance sheets improve slightly Record Australian crop at 34 MMT Sugar Beet and cane production lowered 20,000 and 72,000 STRV, respectively Mexican imports lowered despite recent additional 150,000 MT quota Don’t forget to register now for our Hot Ingredients webinar on Dec. 15! In-depth dive into honey, nuts, and oats Host: Michael Ca...
Sugar, sugar, & more sugar
December 03, 2021 18:58 - 13 minutes - 18.4 MBDOJ sues to block U.S. sugar acquisition of Imperial USDA and DOC increase Mexico imports 150,000 STRV Mexico production ramping up with improved yields Register now for our latest Hot Ingredients webinar on Dec. 15! In-depth dive into honey, nuts, and oats Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Thanksgiving fun with Mike & Nicole!
November 23, 2021 16:22 - 9 minutes - 13 MBMike’s great Thanksgiving jokes! Nicole’s top 10 things supply chain professionals are thankful for this year! Happy Thanksgiving! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Viva Mexico sugar!
November 19, 2021 19:34 - 13 minutes - 18.7 MBMexico getting into harvest Mills ramping up USDA raises production Mexico has lots of sugar to send to the world market #16 remains super tight No relief until April 2022 Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Welcome to the inflation station
November 12, 2021 19:29 - 15 minutes - 20.8 MBSnow is falling in Chicagoland! Inflation, as measured by CPI, hits highest level in 30 years Energy, food, and used cars top the inflation list Federal Reserve seemingly unresponsive Remember to register for our Risk Management Webinar! Featuring Eric Thornton and Shawn Bingham Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2 pm ET Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
November WASDE: A whole lotta shifting for sugar
November 09, 2021 20:58 - 21 minutes - 29.1 MBCorn Higher ending stocks for corn but stocks-to-use remains low Soy complex Domestic soybean oil balance sheet loosening but global scenario remains tight Wheat U.S. wheat exports fall to lowest since 2002/03 Global stocks fall further Sugar Huge revisions for 2020/21 and 2021/22 beet production Lower on imports 2020/21, but up for 2021/22 Deliveries reverse course and are lowered Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Service...
A look into the future of biofuels & the bioeconomy
November 05, 2021 16:15 - 7 minutes - 11 MBRecap of the ABLC 2021 Conference Future of the bio industry Visit our website for a look at our 2021 U.S. Corn Wet Milling Study Keep an eye out for your invite to our upcoming webinar! Nicole Thomas and Shawn Bingham will cover risk management On Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2 pm ET Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Edible oils market: It’s a horror show!
October 29, 2021 15:12 - 13 minutes - 19.2 MBWhy higher soybean oil despite better stocks? What factors are driving various oil markets higher, and how high could they go? For IQ subscribers Coverage recommendations for select edible oils markets Not an IQ subscriber but curious? Sign up here for a test drive! Vroom vroom! Happy Halloween! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Cocoa update: Grinds, arrivals, & more!
October 22, 2021 18:17 - 10 minutes - 14.7 MBQ3 grinds post solid results for Europe, N. America, and Asia Lifting crop-year grind results to an impressive +3.4% globally Three weeks into the new season and arrivals have been sluggish Dry weather experienced earlier this spring and disappointingly lower farmgate price are being blamed Remember to register for our Fall Market Outlook Webinar! Nicole Thomas and Kevin Combs cover corn, soy complex, and sugar Next Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2pm ET Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO E...
Catching up with natural gas
October 15, 2021 19:07 - 13 minutes - 18.9 MBNatural gas rally year to date tops 200% in U.S. and 400% in Europe TTF Hub (Europe) vs. Henry Hub (U.S.) traders caught the wrong way on the spread may have contributed to the recent spike above $6.00 Spike in prices has caused the collapse of multiple British energy suppliers Political winds both here and abroad are likely to keep prices elevated along with lower-than-average U.S. stored supplies this winter Remember to register for our Fall Market Outlook Webinar! Wednesday, Oct. 27...
October WASDE harvests a few surprises
October 12, 2021 21:52 - 23 minutes - 33 MBCorn & soy complex Big bear day for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil—higher stocks Wheat Production now the lowest in 19 years Ending stocks fall to 580 million bushels Sugar Record beet crop forecasted at 5.348 million STRV Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Up to speed on CBD with Swany of KND Labs
October 08, 2021 23:13 - 16 minutes - 22.6 MBGeneral CBD market update Retail sales through COVID Market consolidation Crop pricing and harvest Regulatory environment Recent Californian legislation Developments and education R&D guidance Formulations, solutions, and blending CBD inclusions for oils, chocolate liquor/butter Download our newly updated CBD study for free! Host: Michael “Caughy” Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Dave “Swany” Swanwick, Director of Sales, KND Labs
In memoriam: CME futures trading pits
October 01, 2021 18:16 - 18 minutes - 24.9 MBOpen outcry has been silenced Remembrances from the past Impact on the markets UB Executive Conference. Thank you, Urner Barry! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
A whole lot mooving in the dairy markets
September 24, 2021 20:43 - 17 minutes - 23.6 MBMilk product report Milk output up slightly as herd continues to drop Fonterra GDT auction Both skim and whole milk gain ground Cold storage report Butter stocks fall Remember to register for our Wheat Fundamentals Webinar! Eric Thornton covers all you need to know on wheat Next Wednesday, Sep. 29, 2pm ET Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Technically speaking with Shawn Bingham
September 17, 2021 19:25 - 14 minutes - 19.7 MBBreak on through… Shawn's doors Managed money AUM sees big first-half increases Increased speculator activity Long liquidations continue, but funds not yet selling short Seasonal corn low may not be in, but the floor seems pretty clear Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
September WASDE recap: Friday fun!
September 10, 2021 20:28 - 14 minutes - 19.9 MBCorn and soy complex Steady, but bump on yields for both Soybean oil crush lowered Sugar Adjustments galore! TRQ imports trimmed by 96,000 STRV Beet production raised Damage assessments in Louisiana still underway after Hurricane Ida Numerous changes in imports Wheat Fundamentals Webinar! Mark your calendars on Sep. 29! Invites out soon Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweete...
What to expect from next week’s WASDE
September 03, 2021 17:26 - 9 minutes - 13.7 MBExpect USDA to be conservative We don’t anticipate any further reduction to yields for corn and soybeans Stay vigilant on orders FEMA is going to stress pool of truck drivers over the next 5-6 weeks Craig’s college football picks! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
The edible oils situation
August 27, 2021 19:46 - 18 minutes - 25.1 MBWhat’s on the horizon? Current soybean/soybean oil supply & demand Historically low availability Preparation and planning for 2022 Nicole's video: Edible oils sourcing, supply, pricing, and volatility Urner Barry Executive Conference | Las Vegas | Sept. 26-28, 2021 Don't miss Nicole at Urner Barry's Executive Conference speaking on the grain and oilseed markets. Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
The sugar guru has spoken
August 20, 2021 19:02 - 14 minutes - 20.5 MBBeet crop yields encouraging Will #11 and #16 raw sugar futures move lower? Who the heck is DK Metcalf? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
A wild-n-crazy August WASDE
August 12, 2021 22:02 - 26 minutes - 36.3 MBWheat Global wheat production slashed U.S. wheat balance sheet tightens further Corn Yield down significantly Reduction to production Nicole’s song coming soon! Soy complex Lower than average yields coming soon? Ending stocks stayed the same Sugar USDA indicates no policy announcements on sugar imports No major S&D adjustment Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: K...
Corn yield projection & WASDE estimates
August 06, 2021 18:55 - 21 minutes - 29 MBCorn yield exercise What’s the number? Soybean and corn predictions for WASDE USDA may further reduce spring wheat production Global wheat production to fall Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Running the bases on cocoa & chocolate
July 30, 2021 19:04 - 14 minutes - 13.6 MBHigh level review of Q2 grinds around the world by major reporting region Aggregated summary of global grind How it's changed since start of the season Corporate earnings for H01 from some of the major chocolate/confectionery companies Cocoa prices and speculator activity over the most recent weeks McKeany-Flavell's education series Edible Oils 101 Corn & Corn Sweeteners 101 Strategic Sourcing Call +1 (510) 832 2866 to learn more! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Je...
A quick tour of the corn wet milling industry
July 23, 2021 17:18 - 8 minutes - 11.3 MBIt’s not all about feedstock costs Tightness in dry products creating supply chain pain Expect an inflationary environment for 2022 negotiations Register now for our new webinar series, Hot Ingredients Spotlight Webinar Covering allulose, erythritol, and tapioca Next Wednesday, July 28, 2 pm ET Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
What’s up with wheat?
July 16, 2021 19:00 - 19 minutes - 26.2 MBFundamental and technical analysis from the “new guys” Eric Wheat production and ending stocks revised sharply lower on July WASDE Is there any relief for spring wheat? What to expect moving forward Shawn Spread between winter and spring wheat may suggest a quicker reversal Speculators still mostly flat wheat which could limit the total upside Register now for our new webinar series, Hot Ingredients Spotlight Webinar Covering allulose, erythritol, and tapioca July 28, 2 pm ET Hos...
July WASDE! Let's break it down
July 12, 2021 21:16 - 23 minutes - 31.9 MBWheat U.S. wheat production and ending stocks take a big blow Global production falls, but still a record 792.4 MMT projection for 2021/22 Corn Ending stocks lowered USDA lowers Brazil production, now more in line with CONAB Soy complex Ending stocks left unchanged Export demand expected to fall Sugar Beet crop placed at disappointing 5.033 million STRV Cane crop lower at 3.975 million STRV Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Informati...
Delta variant & its impact on markets, plus a sugar spike!
July 09, 2021 18:30 - 14 minutes - 20.3 MBDaily new COVID-19 cases are on the rise again Delta variant rapidly growing Markets to monitor? Impact on the “reflation” trade could keep pressure on commodities Sugar #16 raw sugar prices spike to $0.36 Hurricane season underway, supporting raw sugar prices USDA reassigns only 76,000 tons, disappoints trade Mark your calendar for our next webinar: July 28 The first of a series where we’ll cover hot new ingredients! Registration available soon! Host: Michael Caughlan, President...
All about sugar: Fireworks, hurricanes, & more!
July 02, 2021 17:24 - 11 minutes - 15.2 MBFireworks hitting sugar futures markets early Frost hits Brazil Hurricane Elsa targeting Florida? Happy Fourth of July! Host: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Ohhh nooooo… Acreage report analysis
June 30, 2021 21:11 - 15 minutes - 20.8 MBWheat Wheat acres increase 300,000 acres to 46.7 million acres Corn and soy complex Corn, soy acreage well below analysts’ expectations Stocks, disappearance reflects strong year of demand Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Acreage report preview: Get it while it’s hot!
June 25, 2021 19:15 - 11 minutes - 15.3 MBWheat Spring wheat acres are forecasted to decline Corn and soy complex Corn and soybeans attempt to beat up the competition Login to our IQ platform to hear Shawn break down the technicals on pricing. Not a subscriber? Email us to find out more! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Hemp & CBD: Easy as 1-2-3!
June 18, 2021 17:44 - 11 minutes - 15.9 MB2021 hemp licenses are down vs. 2020 Demand for CBD steady in the US, growing globally Regulatory gamechanger on the horizon? Happy Father’s Day! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Everyone's doin' the WASDE shuffle! Sugar, corn, soybeans, & wheat
June 10, 2021 21:34 - 15 minutes - 21 MBSugar Sugar imports lowered 50,000 STRV for re-export program Stocks-to-use lowered to 14.3% Corn U.S., global corn stocks fall further Soybeans Lower soybean crush? Register for our upcoming Summer Market Outlook webinar, June 17! Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
A pre-WASDE chat: Sugar, corn, soybeans, & wheat
June 04, 2021 15:08 - 14 minutes - 19.8 MBJune WASDE is more about old crop revisions typically Sugar Little changes with no adjustments to imports from USDA yet Corn Production in Brazil likely to be significantly lower Wheat Yields to increase? Early ratings for Spring wheat are very poor Register here for our Summer Market Outlook Webinar, Thurs., June 17! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
UP-dates on sugar & dairy prices
May 28, 2021 19:36 - 9 minutes - 13.5 MBSugar Raw sugar prices skyrocket Ingredients for refined sugar market are in the pot Contract negotiations for 2022 have commenced Dairy USDA releases Milk Production Report and Cold Storage Report Herd count and milk yield at all-time highs Why are prices still going up? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Tech talkin' corn, soybean oil, & speculator interest
May 21, 2021 19:39 - 21 minutes - 29.5 MBRecent weakness turning short-term technical trend in some grain futures contracts Long-term models still clearly bullish Estimated average speculator positions in corn and soybean oil a long way from being underwater and forcing liquidations It’s all profit taking right now On this day in history: 1927: Charles Lindberg solos across the Atlantic Ocean 1932: Amelia Earhart does it again! And (drum roll, please) 1973: Mike Caughlan is born… Happy Birthday, Mike! Host: Nicole Thomas, ...
Protein prep with Brian from Urner Barry
May 14, 2021 18:15 - 17 minutes - 24.7 MBUrner Barry introduction All about the egg market Bad egg puns Protein market update What’s going on with chicken? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Guest: Brian Moscogiuri, Dir. of Egg and Egg Products, Urner Barry
May WASDE springs some surprises
May 12, 2021 22:04 - 27 minutes - 37.3 MBCorn 2020/21 domestic corn stocks drop further Soybeans 12 billion pounds of soybean oil “biofuel” usage? Sugar 2021 sugar forecast at record 9.310 million STRV Wheat 2021/22 wheat outlook shows lower ending stocks 900 million export target for 2021/22 Lowest since 2009/10 Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Pre-WASDE wonderment
May 07, 2021 20:19 - 15 minutes - 21.9 MBCorn/Soybeans Market awaiting first look at 2021/22 for corn, soybeans. More global stock declines to come? Sugar Small changes for 2021 sugar S&D expected in WASDE report Initial 2022 estimates based on March planting intentions and trendline yields Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers out there! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
More wild rides through the soy complex!
April 30, 2021 19:53 - 12 minutes - 16.7 MBSoy oil futures test $0.70 per pound! Current market conditions—and maybe for the long-haul For IQ Plus and Premier Subscribers Strategy development for a challenging oils market Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Inflation: It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad world
April 23, 2021 17:58 - 17 minutes - 24.3 MBInflation and factors impacting it What to expect this year Spring Seminar next week! Join us on Apr. 27 and 28 at our virtual Spring Market Seminar 2021! Register here! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
How’s the weather?
April 16, 2021 17:53 - 13 minutes - 18.7 MBBrazil/South America outlook is dry as we approach May (the dry season) North American weather outlook Dakotas are very dry Our spring seminar is less than two weeks away, on Apr. 27 and 28! The Food Revolution Resumes! Register today! Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
WASDE: Steady as we go
April 09, 2021 20:37 - 12 minutes - 17.6 MBSugar Bit of a yawner Production lowered 30,000 STRV, but high tier imports offset with 30,000 STRV increase Corn Stocks lowered 150 million bushels on increased demand Soybeans No change in ending stocks Wheat Stocks rise in the U.S. but fall globally And don’t forget to register for our Spring Seminar coming up April 27 and 28. The Food Revolution Resumes! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, C...
Who got the acreage? Prospective Plantings & Grain Stocks reports explained
April 01, 2021 19:30 - 24 minutes - 33.6 MBSoybeans and corn Snikes! Acreage numbers severely miss expectations Stocks fall within the range of forecasts Wheat Wheat acres rise to 46.4 million acres Winter wheat acres up 9 percent Sugar Sugar beet acreage up 6,800 acres Gonzaga will win the NCAA Basketball Championship! And don’t forget to register for our Spring Seminar coming up April 27 and 28. The Food Revolution Resumes! Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President –...
Planting intentions expectations: Sugar, corn, soybeans, & wheat
March 26, 2021 19:30 - 12 minutes - 17.3 MBSugar Beet: minimal increases Cane: aggressive expansion for Louisiana? Wheat Spring wheat: expecting to see reductions Suez Canal We’re sending Dario to help! And don’t forget to register for our Spring Seminar coming up April 27 and 28. The Food Revolution Resumes! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist