FiveThirtyEight Politics
695 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 19.5K ratingsThe 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
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Episodes
Can Biden Hold On?
July 08, 2024 20:30 - 31 minutesAs the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end? And following lan...
Exclusive: President Biden Sits Down with ABC News
July 06, 2024 01:08 - 38 secondsPresident Joe Biden, in an exclusive interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos that aired Friday night, acknowledged last week's debate was a "bad episode" but pushed back strongly against broader questions about his age and mental fitness. Biden's sit-down with ABC News was his first television interview since the June 27 debate. Hear the interview now, in its entirety, on ABC News' "Start Here" podcast: Apple Podcasts (http://bit.ly/3VmuAnm), Spotify (http://bit.ly/3j947fm), Amaz...
Making Sense Of A Historic British Election
July 04, 2024 09:30 - 40 minutesHappy Fourth of July! To celebrate our independence from Great Britain, the 538 Politics podcast is actually turning its attention to the United Kingdom's upcoming election. The U.K. is holding its first national election in four and a half years on July 4 and the polling suggests the Labour Party will make historic gains, booting Conservatives from power for the first time in 14 years. To get a sense of the forces behind the dramatic shift since 2019, two longtime friends of the podcast weig...
The Push For A Biden Replacement Becomes Real
July 03, 2024 18:27 - 35 minutesThe ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next. Learn more about your ad...
Presidential Immunity And More Debate Fallout
July 01, 2024 21:16 - 47 minutesSince Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Ya...
Reaction Podcast: A Rough Debate For Biden
June 28, 2024 06:59 - 29 minutesGalen reacts to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate
June 24, 2024 22:12 - 41 minutesThis Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable ...
Voters Around The World Are Mad As Hell
June 20, 2024 20:00 - 39 minutesThere are more people voting in 2024 than ever before. This year, elections are taking place in at least 64 countries, as well as the European Union, totaling almost half of the world’s population. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with Richard Wike, director of Pew’s Global Attitudes Research, and Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about whether voters are behaving similarly across the globe. One of the biggest trends ...
2024 Is Going To Be A Vibes Election
June 17, 2024 21:41 - 38 minutesLast week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation cooling more than expected. Then, on Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously to uphold access to the abortion medication mifepristone by mail. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst ...
How Much AI Regulation Is The Right Amount?
June 13, 2024 21:41 - 43 minutesLast month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research. The plan has raised numerous questions about whether and how the government intends to regulate the rapidly evolving tech industry, especially in areas related to copyright and privacy. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Gregory Allen, Director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about th...
538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up
June 11, 2024 12:00 - 40 minutesThe 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Trump leads in the polls nationally and in the battleground states, the fundamentals favor Biden, resulting in an extremely close call between the two. Elliott and Galen discuss the sources of uncertainty in the forecast and what we mig...
Mr. Druke Goes to Washington
June 06, 2024 20:30 - 44 minutesThis installment of the 538 Politics podcast comes to you from the nation's capital, where Galen is joined in-studio by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and friend of the podcast, New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. They talk about the latest polling since former president Donald Trump's guilty verdict in his Manhattan hush-money trial and President Joe Biden's decision to issue an executive order restricting asylum at the southern border. They also play a game of historical...
The First Polls Since Trump’s Guilty Verdict Are In
June 03, 2024 21:46 - 46 minutesIt's been four days since former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan criminal case, and the early indication from the polls is that there has been a small shift away from Trump in head-to-head polling with President Joe Biden. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we talk about the latest data and whether we expect that shift to endure. We are also now officially on Supreme Court decision watch, with cases surrounding Jan. 6, the Second Amendment and abortion m...
Reaction Podcast: Trump Found Guilty
May 31, 2024 00:36 - 33 minutesOn Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megapho...
The 3 Questions That Will Decide Trump's First Trial
May 28, 2024 21:43 - 37 minutesClosing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. This marks the beginning of the end of the first criminal prosecution of a former American president, and the verdict could affect his future career in politics. In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks wit...
Elections Everywhere All At Once
May 23, 2024 23:19 - 36 minutesIt’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask whether her endorsement actually matters to voters. We also indulge in some British politics, with the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4....
Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'
May 22, 2024 09:29 - 25 minutesThis is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elec...
Are Americans Tuning Out The 2024 Election?
May 20, 2024 20:58 - 38 minutesIt’s no secret that we are headed toward a presidential election that many Americans said they didn’t want. Somewhere in the range of 20 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, and if ratings are any indication, a lot of folks seem to be tuning campaign news out. So what does this portend for turnout? We’ve been in an era of high-turnout elections since 2016, but will fatigue or disdain keep people home this fall? In this in...
Why Voters Are Worried About Democracy, In Their Own Words
May 16, 2024 21:17 - 39 minutesConcerns about democracy are central to the 2024 election. Late last year, Gallup recorded a record low number of Americans who said they are satisfied with the way democracy is working. And in the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14 percent of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55 percent said it needs major changes. To better understand how Americans are thinking about democracy heading into the election, 538 teamed up wi...
Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'
May 15, 2024 09:30 - 29 minutesThis is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the pr...
The Sun Belt Shifts Away From Biden
May 13, 2024 22:11 - 43 minutesThree months ago, as the presidential primaries were getting underway, President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and concerns about his age were coming to the fore. The optimistic view for Biden was that once the presidential primaries were over, and it became clear that the choice was a 2020 rematch, the polls would move in his direction. But the polls have changed little. In fact, a new set of battleground polls from T...
Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?
May 09, 2024 20:41 - 30 minutesSix months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting market...
Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'
May 08, 2024 09:30 - 25 minutesThis is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates ...
Will The Protests Over Gaza Affect The 2024 Election?
May 06, 2024 21:44 - 35 minutesCollege graduation season is getting underway, with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. Some universities have canceled commencement events after local police were called in to numerous campuses to disband encampments and make arrests. All of this is focusing attention on the youth vote and how these scenes could shape Americans’ votes this fall. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into it. We also ask whether a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. camp...
Why Voters Are Down On The Economy, In Their Own Words
May 02, 2024 19:49 - 35 minutesFor much of Joe Biden’s presidency, political observers have puzzled over a disconnect between economic indicators and consumer sentiment. Unemployment is low, growth has been persistent and inflation is receding. Yet, the vibes aren’t great. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from undecided voters who participated in a focus group with PerryUndem and 538's Senior Politics Reporter Monica Potts, which focused on feelings about the economy. Later in the show, Galen speaks...
A Tale Of Two Trump Trials
April 29, 2024 20:00 - 35 minutesFormer president Donald Trump’s legal saga reached two major milestones last week. In Manhattan, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about a “catch and kill” scheme that prosecutors say was meant to help Trump win the 2016 presidential election. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether presidential immunity protected Trump from prosecution in the federal case related to Jan. 6. The court’s conservative majority appeared sympathetic to at ...
538's New Polling Averages Show Close Presidential Race
April 25, 2024 14:00 - 42 minutesThe 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Are Mike Johnson’s Days Numbered?
April 22, 2024 23:34 - 53 minutesAfter months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim majority of Republicans opposed Ukraine aid. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade, Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers about why this happened now and whether it spells doom for House Speaker Mike Johnson. The...
In Trump Trial, Jury Selection Is Part Politics
April 18, 2024 20:49 - 36 minutesThe jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Antifa to what podcasts they listen to. The attorneys on both sides scrutinized their social media posts, asked them about their opinions of Trump, and had the opportunity to ask they be removed from consideration. This is all with the goal of impaneling a...
The Political Stakes Of Trump's First Trial
April 15, 2024 23:44 - 46 minutesMonday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to conceal damaging information during the 2016 election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability. They also discuss how Republicans are positioning...
What's Up With The Kids These Days?
April 11, 2024 21:01 - 56 minutesIn the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win. In this...
Tim Scott Is The Leading Trump VP Contender
April 08, 2024 23:01 - 57 minutesOn this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position. Learn m...
Where Will People Commune In A Godless America?
April 04, 2024 20:57 - 49 minutesAmericans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from 21 percent a decade ago and just 6 percent in the early '90s. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who attend religious services weekly or nearly every week has fallen from 42 percent in 2000 to 30 percent now. In this ...
The Presidential Election Has Become An Unpopularity Contest
April 01, 2024 22:08 - 54 minutesIn this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in gett...
Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment?
March 28, 2024 21:17 - 54 minutesA handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it co...
Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?
March 25, 2024 21:37 - 46 minutesIs the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan ...
538 Debate Club: Should TikTok Be Banned?
March 21, 2024 21:07 - 56 minutesLast week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Edit...
How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?
March 18, 2024 21:55 - 56 minutesThe presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that wi...
Do Campaign Stops Actually Matter?
March 14, 2024 21:22 - 48 minutesAfter Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. Th...
Does Gen Z Really Care More About That Viral TikTok Than Politics?
March 11, 2024 23:24 - 50 minutesThe general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win? They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of...
A Very Political State Of The Union
March 08, 2024 09:09 - 41 minutesIn this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Super Tuesday Brings A Couple Surprises
March 06, 2024 09:46 - 37 minutesIn a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What To Watch For On Super Tuesday
March 05, 2024 00:37 - 1 hourSuper Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and they turn their focus to Washington, D.C., to discuss Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he will soon step down as head of the Senate Republican Conference and how Congress is responding to the recent ruling by the Alab...
What To Make Of The Protest Votes In Michigan
February 28, 2024 22:23 - 48 minutesThe Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in ...
After South Carolina Loss, What Is Nikki Haley's Plan?
February 25, 2024 18:42 - 48 minutesIn a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Foreign Policy Has Become A Family Feud
February 22, 2024 23:13 - 51 minutesBoth Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the ...
What Comes Next In Trump's Trials
February 19, 2024 14:00 - 57 minutesThis Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of presidential behavior? Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases as he campaigns for the White House. Law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss some of the recent developments in each of the cases and what to expect next. Last week, the judge in the New York hush money case ruled that the trial wil...
Democrats Notch A Win In The Battle For The Suburbs
February 14, 2024 09:56 - 39 minutesIn this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George Santos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Political Conversation About Biden's Age
February 13, 2024 00:03 - 1 hourVoters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the dynamics at play in the most high profile special election this year. They also look at Americans' perceptions of President Joe Biden's age, after a special counsel report described him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” and they talk about what comes next in the poli...
The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election
February 08, 2024 21:33 - 41 minutesWhat is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them this one question. Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. Galen and his guests cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break ...