FiveThirtyEight Politics
667 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 19.4K ratingsThe 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
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Episodes
In Trump Trial, Jury Selection Is Part Politics
April 18, 2024 20:49 - 36 minutesThe jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Antifa to what podcasts they listen to. The attorneys on both sides scrutinized their social media posts, asked them about their opinions of Trump, and had the opportunity to ask they be removed from consideration. This is all with the goal of impaneling a...
The Political Stakes Of Trump's First Trial
April 15, 2024 23:44 - 46 minutesMonday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to conceal damaging information during the 2016 election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability. They also discuss how Republicans are positioning...
What's Up With The Kids These Days?
April 11, 2024 21:01 - 56 minutesIn the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win. In this...
Tim Scott Is The Leading Trump VP Contender
April 08, 2024 23:01 - 57 minutesOn this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position. Learn m...
Where Will People Commune In A Godless America?
April 04, 2024 20:57 - 49 minutesAmericans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from 21 percent a decade ago and just 6 percent in the early '90s. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who attend religious services weekly or nearly every week has fallen from 42 percent in 2000 to 30 percent now. In this ...
The Presidential Election Has Become An Unpopularity Contest
April 01, 2024 22:08 - 54 minutesIn this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in gett...
Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment?
March 28, 2024 21:17 - 54 minutesA handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it co...
Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?
March 25, 2024 21:37 - 46 minutesIs the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan ...
538 Debate Club: Should TikTok Be Banned?
March 21, 2024 21:07 - 56 minutesLast week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Edit...
How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?
March 18, 2024 21:55 - 56 minutesThe presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that wi...
Do Campaign Stops Actually Matter?
March 14, 2024 21:22 - 48 minutesAfter Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. Th...
Does Gen Z Really Care More About That Viral TikTok Than Politics?
March 11, 2024 23:24 - 50 minutesThe general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win? They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of...
A Very Political State Of The Union
March 08, 2024 09:09 - 41 minutesIn this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Super Tuesday Brings A Couple Surprises
March 06, 2024 09:46 - 37 minutesIn a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What To Watch For On Super Tuesday
March 05, 2024 00:37 - 1 hourSuper Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and they turn their focus to Washington, D.C., to discuss Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he will soon step down as head of the Senate Republican Conference and how Congress is responding to the recent ruling by the Alab...
What To Make Of The Protest Votes In Michigan
February 28, 2024 22:23 - 48 minutesThe Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in ...
After South Carolina Loss, What Is Nikki Haley's Plan?
February 25, 2024 18:42 - 48 minutesIn a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Foreign Policy Has Become A Family Feud
February 22, 2024 23:13 - 51 minutesBoth Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the ...
What Comes Next In Trump's Trials
February 19, 2024 14:00 - 57 minutesThis Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of presidential behavior? Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases as he campaigns for the White House. Law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss some of the recent developments in each of the cases and what to expect next. Last week, the judge in the New York hush money case ruled that the trial wil...
Democrats Notch A Win In The Battle For The Suburbs
February 14, 2024 09:56 - 39 minutesIn this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George Santos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Political Conversation About Biden's Age
February 13, 2024 00:03 - 1 hourVoters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the dynamics at play in the most high profile special election this year. They also look at Americans' perceptions of President Joe Biden's age, after a special counsel report described him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” and they talk about what comes next in the poli...
The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election
February 08, 2024 21:33 - 41 minutesWhat is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them this one question. Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. Galen and his guests cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break ...
The Tortured Pundits Department
February 05, 2024 23:39 - 49 minutesHow much influence does Taylor Swift actually have? Would her endorsement in a presidential election move voters? Has her presence at NFL games already created new fans among young women? Some have used polling to suggest it has, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask "good or bad use of polling?" The crew also looks at some of the minor primary contests between now and the South Carolina Republican presidential primary and spotlights the biggest takeaways from last quarte...
How Americans Feel About The Economy
February 01, 2024 20:19 - 37 minutesThe conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal. A lot of that likely had to do with inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market. Trends that, as of right now, have abated and even reversed. So what’s happened over the past three years and where are we head...
Will Politics Or Policy Win Out At The Border?
January 30, 2024 01:38 - 1 hourIn this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538 politics reporter. Together, the crew discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, explores proposed policy changes and guesses what Americans think about the political landscape right now. Later in the show, Galen ...
The GOP Primary Is Basically Over
January 24, 2024 07:40 - 34 minutesIn a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions that backed Trump and Haley and explain why this was Haley's best shot at scoring a win. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is New Hampshire The End Of The GOP Primary?
January 23, 2024 00:03 - 1 hourThe Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican primary. They also consider whether a poll asking New Hampshire residents how well they understand the 14th Amendment is a good use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The View From New Hampshire
January 18, 2024 22:37 - 43 minutesWith New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, about the potentially competitive contest between frontrunner former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as the nuances of New Hampshire’s electorat...
Trump Wins Iowa. Now What?
January 16, 2024 10:13 - 40 minutesThe crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa, as well as the race for second place, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Last Debate Before Iowa
January 11, 2024 11:43 - 43 minutesWith just days until the Iowa caucuses, the crew reacts to a head-to-head debate between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as a town hall featuring former President Donald Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
No Sleep Till Iowa
January 08, 2024 22:17 - 1 hourThe Iowa caucuses are just a week away, and in this installment, the 538 Politics podcast sets its sights on the early states. Galen speaks with celebrated Iowa pollster Ann Selzer about likely caucusgoers' views of the candidates and how things could change in the final week of the campaign. Later in the show, Galen is joined by ABC News reporters Kendall Ross in Iowa, Kelsey Walsh in New Hampshire and Gabriella Abdul-Hakim in South Carolina. They share their insights from months of talking ...
Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?
January 04, 2024 21:36 - 53 minutesThe 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of former president Donald Trump’s legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House, the House of Representatives and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns, so Galen asks the crew to make an assessment of th...
There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees… Right?
January 01, 2024 21:00 - 57 minutesHappy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it has shaped our political landscape, and how it might be improved. This is episode three of three. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics
December 28, 2023 21:00 - 48 minutesHappy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it has shaped our political landscape, and how it might be improved. This is episode two of three. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Presidential Primary System is An Accident
December 25, 2023 23:00 - 37 minutesHappy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it has shaped our political landscape, and how it might be improved. This is episode one of three. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The 538 Podcast Holiday Party
December 21, 2023 21:01 - 1 hourIn this holiday installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks back at some of the most important political events of 2023 as well as some of the weirder political stories of the year. They also debate the thorny question of which types of cookies can be considered "Christmas cookies" in a festive edition of "Good or Bad Use of Polling." To wrap it all up, they play "Guess What Americans Think" and guess the answers to polling questions like, "If Santa were a registered voter, which ...
Reaction Podcast: Colorado Supreme Court Bars Trump From Ballot
December 20, 2023 20:26 - 24 minutesOn this special reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Kimberly Wehle, professor of law at the University of Baltimore, and Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst, about the recent ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that bars Trump from the Colorado Republican primary ballot. They discuss the legal grounding of this ruling, the political reaction and the prospect of the U.S. Supreme Court weighing in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time
December 19, 2023 00:26 - 1 hourThe U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Senate is delaying its holiday recess as negotiators try to hash out a deal that would include aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as funding for border security and possible changes to asylum law. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew heads to Washington to discuss how Congress is closing out the year and what Americans think about...
Have Progressives Won The Economic Debate?
December 14, 2023 21:09 - 36 minutesIn early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same party.” Yet, by April of that year, after Bernie Sanders dropped out, she “absolutely” threw her support behind Biden, saying “the stakes are too high when it comes to another four years of [former President Donald] Trump.” Since Trump’s victory in 2016, opposition to the former president has served as one of the strongest organizing principles for ...
What To Make Of Trump's 'Dictator' Comment
December 11, 2023 22:50 - 51 minutesFormer President Donald Trump attracted attention for his answer in a town hall with Sean Hannity last week suggesting he would not abuse his power as president in a second term, “except for Day One.” His answer came after extensive reporting on how his second-term plans would challenge democratic norms and accepted limits on presidential power on issues ranging from Department of Justice investigations to domestic use of the military. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sp...
Did The Fourth Republican Debate Matter?
December 07, 2023 13:36 - 37 minutesGalen unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?
December 04, 2023 21:18 - 1 hourIn the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states. There were already rumb...
2024 Is The First ‘AI Election.’ What Does That Mean?
November 30, 2023 22:43 - 47 minutesExactly one year ago today, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring AI-generated images, legislative proposals and a congressional hearing on AI regulation. By all accounts, the 2024 presidential election is going to be our first "AI election." However, often the specifics around AI’s impact remain vague. How exactly could it impact our electoral ...
Why The GOP May Be Ready To Say Goodbye To Santos
November 27, 2023 22:45 - 48 minutesThe U.S. House gets back to work on Tuesday and one of its first orders of business is expected to be a vote on whether to expel Rep. George Santos of New York. A House ethics report concluded earlier this month that he “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit.” In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how likely Santos is to be added to the only five House expulsions in U.S. history. They also look at...
What These Swing Voters Have To Say About The 2024 Election
November 20, 2023 21:30 - 43 minutesWhat makes swing voters swing? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen heads to Simi Valley, California and speaks with voters whose preferences have crisscrossed parties in recent years. They explain how they’re thinking about politics today and why their views and identities may not fit neatly into one partisan bucket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Fight For Working-Class Voters
November 16, 2023 22:21 - 50 minutesIn 2016, as has been widely reported, white working-class voters shifted decisively to the right. In 2020, working-class voters of color followed suit to varying degrees, though still giving President Joe Biden a clear majority of their support. This has left both parties with the understanding that going forward a multiracial, working-class majority will play a pivotal role in their electoral fortunes. So why have we seen these recent shifts to the right and what will both parties do to eith...
If The 2024 Election Were Held Today, Would Trump Win?
November 13, 2023 23:51 - 1 hourTo mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of election data nerds: G. Elliott Morris, ABC News editorial director of data analytics; Ruth Igielnik, editor for news surveys at The New York Times; and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org. In recent days, a spate of polls have come out, mostly showing a similar picture: Not only does former President Donald Trump ...
Haley Takes On Ramaswamy And DeSantis
November 09, 2023 13:25 - 39 minutesThe crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The 2023 Elections Were Good For Democrats
November 08, 2023 06:06 - 28 minutesIn this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew unpacks the results from election night 2023. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky and Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution. The night was a decent performance for Democrats, despite a spate of recent polling suggesting Americans are pessimistic about Joe Biden's presidency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will Kentucky And Mississippi Elect Democrats?
November 06, 2023 23:29 - 51 minutesIn this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very Republican-leaning states — Kentucky and Mississippi. They also consider the value of a recent poll that asked whether we live in a "big, beautiful world, mostly full of good people" or if "our lives are threatened by terrorists, criminals, and illegal immigrants.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices