Economy Watch
1,329 episodes - English - Latest episode: 24 days ago -We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.
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China risks become real for rest of the world
February 23, 2020 18:37 - 6 minutes - 5.74 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's woes are spreading and the impacts are deepening. But first, the issue of an internationally coordinated digital tax on the global tech giants is back in the limelight as the US tries to do an end-run around the OECD BEPS proposals. And the annual Warren Buffett lett...
Conflicting signals
February 20, 2020 18:45 - 5 minutes - 4.61 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are dealing with conflicting signals. This morning Wall Street started in full fear mode, down more than -1% in early trade and now down -0.6%. And this is despite some positive regional news. But jobless claims rose unexpectedly in the US. They have been high for a w...
China to join US in running a massive budget deficit
February 19, 2020 18:49 - 6 minutes - 5.64 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is about to join the US and Japan in running massive budget deficits. But first, American housing starts and building permit issuance continued at a high rate in January, even if it was a small pullback from the December levels. Good weather conditions generally helpe...
Gold jumps as optimism fades
February 18, 2020 18:44 - 5 minutes - 4.97 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the price of gold has leapt overnight as investors are struggling to remain positive. But first up this morning, there was another dairy auction this morning and another fall in overall prices. But the fall was small in the circumstances, down -2.85% from the prior auction...
Asian economic growth to slow fast
February 17, 2020 18:48 - 6 minutes - 5.76 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news 2020 is shaping up to be a very weak year for world trade. Firstly however we should note that today is a public holiday in the US, with the NYSE closed and very limited trading in commodities markets there. But overnight, European markets rose about +0.3% across all of them...
The virus spread may be peaking but the fear isn't
February 16, 2020 18:39 - 6 minutes - 6.22 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the economic implications of the fear of China's virus continue to grow, even if the virus spread itself is peaking. In China, the COVID-19 numbers are still rising, up to 69,300 and a +2000 rise from Saturday. The death toll is up to 1670 from 1525 this time Saturday. This t...
China revision brings sudden new caution
February 13, 2020 18:44 - 5 minutes - 5.12 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the unexpected revision upward to the China virus data has markets stepping back and reassessing their views. But first, inflation is rising in the US, now up to 2.5% in the year to January with core inflation up 2.3%. Today's CPI rise was driven by petrol (+12.8%), rent (+3....
Down-weighting the China risks
February 12, 2020 18:49 - 5 minutes - 4.94 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors seem to have down-weighted the China risks. Equity markets are buying the idea that the coronavirus impacts will be short and shallow. European markets were up +0.9% overnight and so far today Wall Street is also higher, with the S&P500 up +0.6% in mid-day trade. ...
Economic risks rise but investor risks fall
February 11, 2020 18:49 - 5 minutes - 4.76 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the global economy is stumbling but central banks are covering investor risk downsides. But first, job openings in the US were expected to rise in December but instead they recorded a sharp fall. And Boeing scored no new orders for airplanes last month, the first time it ...
The scale of the virus black swan keeps on growing
February 10, 2020 18:49 - 6 minutes - 5.88 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news apprehension is growing at the scale of the coronavirus impacts. Firstly, an update on the official virus data. It has doubled in the past week to be 40,600 confirmed cases (an equivalent levels of unconfirmed cases) and the death toll has also more than doubled in a week to...
Are we underestimating the coronavirus impact?
February 09, 2020 18:41 - 6 minutes - 6.02 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news some think we are underestimating the economic risks China's coronavirus poses. And first up today, there was another very large jump in the official tally of coronavirus confirmed victims and deaths yesterday, reaching 37,600 and 814 respectively. We are heading for a doubli...
Looking past the pain
February 06, 2020 18:51 - 6 minutes - 5.59 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are still prepared to look through the economic pain about to hit from China. The number of cases the coronavirus is still rising, up a sharp +15% in a day and now over 28,000 and the death toll rose similarly. But most are still in Hubei Province and it is ...
Global airfreight shrinks
February 05, 2020 20:02 - 6 minutes - 5.68 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news equity markets are assuming China has an effective quarantine on their virus emergency. But firstly for our friends outside New Zealand, today is Waitangi Day and a public holiday in all of New Zealand. Elsewhere, there is an American non-farm payrolls report out this Satu...
Equity investors look beyond current risks
February 04, 2020 18:41 - 5 minutes - 4.65 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news an air of optimism is returning to financial markets. But first, this morning's dairy auction was nowhere near as weak as some had expected. Prices were down -4.7% led by WMP which was down -6.2%. SMP was down -4.2%. But the exchange rate came to the rescue and its recent ...
Equities in relief rally, but bonds don't follow
February 03, 2020 18:46 - 5 minutes - 4.76 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a relief rally - that has the look of being a bit premature. But first, the core data being released today is for January PMIs. In the US, the widely watched ISM one actually moved from contraction to a very minor expansion (even if its employment subcategory remained neg...
All eyes on China
February 02, 2020 18:41 - 7 minutes - 6.76 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news everyone is struggling to understand how the China virus impacts will play out. China's financial markets may re-open later today. But their industry probable won't as firms stay shuttered after the week-long Spring Festival that has been upended by the virus emergency. And t...
The scale of the Chinese emergency widens fast
January 30, 2020 18:44 - 5 minutes - 4.86 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news our currency is ending the month at its lowest level of the year so far. But first, the Chinese coronavirus has now spread to India and the Philippines. And Russia has closed its far eastern border with China. Vietnam is doing something similar. Many of the world's major airl...
Deficits grow in all major economies
January 29, 2020 18:45 - 6 minutes - 5.63 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of rising deficits everywhere. First up, the US Fed is meeting and will announce its decisions at 8am NZT. We will update the results here then. Markets are not expecting them to make any policy changes today although they may explain their repo and system liquidity activit...
Markets try to see past China risks
January 28, 2020 18:39 - 5 minutes - 5.16 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors are making a brave effort to look past the China economic risks. Equity markets have decided that the China virus emergency isn't going to affect them. Wall Street has made a sharp recovery today, with the S&P500 up more than +1% in mid-day trade. That follows Eu...
Major selloff underway on China virus jitters
January 27, 2020 18:39 - 5 minutes - 5.03 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors are heading for the exits today. Markets are in full retreat. Equities worldwide are being hit hard. Bond yields are dropping fast. Rate curves have either turned negative or are quickly heading that way. Gold has jumped to a seven year high. The oil price is tanki...
Global risks rise suddenly
January 26, 2020 18:49 - 5 minutes - 5.06 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is becoming clear that the China public health emergency is going to have widespread economic impacts. China of course is gripped by the Wuhan coronavirus flu emergency. The large-scale lock-down now affects four core cities, travel is restricted in 16 other cities and tha...
World economy hostage to a Chinese virus
January 23, 2020 18:48 - 5 minutes - 4.92 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of rapidly building economic consequences from the latest Chinese health scare. Yesterday, the China coronavirus threat spooked Asian equity markets further with the Shanghai index down a whopping -2.8%, Hong Kong was down -1.5%, and Tokyo was down -1.0%. That carried on to E...
Economic momentum in 2020 hard to find
January 22, 2020 18:48 - 5 minutes - 4.9 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more evidence economic momentum in 2020 is hard to find. In the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is pointing to slower growth in December. The slowing American economy is still requiring Fed support. To start the week they were back with US$50 bln in overni...
China virus fears grow
January 21, 2020 18:52 - 5 minutes - 4.79 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are lower today on fears for US growth underperformance, and Chinese growth from SARS II. But first up today, we had another dairy auction and prices rose for a second time in a row, up +1.7% in US dollar terms and +1.9% in New Zealand dollar terms. Among...
No rebound for declining growth
January 20, 2020 18:37 - 5 minutes - 4.63 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the prospects for a rebound in global growth aren't obvious to a global analyst. But first, today is an American public holiday, Martin Luther King Jr Day, and markets are closed there. The IMF said that the fall in global growth appears to have bottomed out but there is no...
US losing ground to China
January 19, 2020 18:43 - 7 minutes - 6.74 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of major releases of data from China and the US. First up, China recorded its fewest births in 58 years in 2019, with them down to +14.7 mln, and lower by -580,000 than in the previous year according to official data. Their population has just nudged 1.4 bln people, a rise of...
US retail rises but overall growth slips
January 16, 2020 18:59 - 5 minutes - 4.99 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets have had a shot in the arm from good December American data. The advance estimate of US retail sales in December came in at the levels markets expected. This was stated as a +0.3% rise month-on-month, seasonally adjusted. A modest gain. But if you look at the actual t...
Economic weakness spreading
January 15, 2020 18:50 - 4 minutes - 4.28 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news economic weakness seems to be spreading. American producer prices came in lower than expected in December, indicating that firms pricing power is weak. And that is especially true now for services. The latest regional Fed survey is from the New York/Northeast region and th...
China trade rises, American deficits leap
January 14, 2020 18:50 - 5 minutes - 5.09 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's trade rose at the end of 2019 and America's budget deficits hit new record highs. But first in the US, inflation as measured by their CPI rose to +2.3% pa in December, a little higher than November but not quite the rise expected. It was boosted by medical care, re...
Markets turn positive
January 13, 2020 18:41 - 4 minutes - 4.19 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a respite in global tensions. Wall Street is +½% higher today on the general news that trade tensions seem to be easing, and Middle East political tensions are as well. Overnight, European equities slipped on most exchanges, except London - a rare reversal. Yesterday, As...
China takes second vote drubbing
January 12, 2020 18:50 - 6 minutes - 5.78 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's bullying style of governing has been soundly rejected again. In Taiwan, their presidential election ended in a landslide win for the incumbent, anti-Beijing candidate, a strong echo of the Hong Kong democratic vote. Interestingly, it was also a strong repudiation of h...
Markets refocus on data after easing tensions
January 09, 2020 18:50 - 5 minutes - 4.79 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the relaxation of geo-political tensions is helping markets. Today, all eyes are on tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report and markets expect it to rise by +160,000. But the number of Americans on unemployment rolls surged to more than a 1½ year high at the end of 2019 to ove...
Risk back in favour
January 08, 2020 18:56 - 5 minutes - 4.86 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news 'risk' is back in favour. The markets have assessed that the Middle East tensions will be a brief event, and the situation there will return to "normal" soon. Wall Street is up with the S&P500 recovering its recent slippage, up +0.6% so far today. Overnight European markets...
Aussie confidence takes a hit
January 07, 2020 18:58 - 5 minutes - 5.23 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news consumer confidence in Australia is weakening. But first, at the initial dairy auction of the year, prices rose +2.8% in US dollar terms from the previous event, but only +1.9% in New Zealand dollar terms. The gains may disappoint some given the state of the international ...
Weird data and weird public policy choices
January 06, 2020 18:55 - 5 minutes - 4.58 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news markets are hesitant and nervous as weird data mixes with weird public policy choices. Wall Street is flat today, unsure what to make of the rising global tensions. But at least their fears of a year-end funding squeeze never materialised thanks in large part to the quarter-trill...
Risks rise sharply in many areas
January 05, 2020 18:47 - 5 minutes - 5.44 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news of a sudden elevation in risk, with events in the Middle East adding to economic, climate and political risks around the world. The downer comes at a bad time for the US. The widely-watched ISM factory PMI fell sharply to its steepest drop in ten years in December and much worse t...
2020 starts with growth, liquidity and climate issues
January 02, 2020 19:48 - 7 minutes - 6.64 MBKia ora, Happy New Year wherever you are, and welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news of low growth, liquidity issues, and climate disasters to start 2020. But first in the US, the latest December consumer confidence survey dipped in December. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved slightly but their expectations d...
NZD ends strong, equities with a whimper
December 30, 2019 19:34 - 6 minutes - 5.93 MBKia ora, Happy New Year wherever you are, and welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news markets are tailing off and in wind-down mode. In global equity markets today, it is a sea of red as investors pull back at the end of the year. The one exception was Shanghai, which was up +1.2% yesterday. Bond investors are pulling back too...
2019, the year of capital gains
December 29, 2019 20:00 - 7 minutes - 6.75 MBKia ora, and welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news China is losing friends in its neighbourhood. China's neighbours are finding some spine and starting to coordinate a response to their claim of the "nine-dash-line" in the South China Sea, which effectively claims all that ocean up to their boundaries. Malaysia has been especi...
All eyes on holiday retail sales
December 26, 2019 19:40 - 5 minutes - 5.04 MBKia ora, and welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news all eyes are on international holiday shopping results. First, some equity markets are back in action today. Wall Street is modestly firm, up +0.3% in mid-day trade. Benchmark bond yields are lower. But gold is up. And so is crude oil. As we near the end of 2019, the value of...
2019 ending without a Santa rally
December 23, 2019 18:57 - 5 minutes - 4.94 MBKia ora, Merry Christmas and welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news the year is winding down without a Santa rally this year. First in the US, there has been an unfortunate and sharp drop in durable goods orders in November, down a startling -5.7% on an actual basis year-on-year. American capital goods orders actually fell a...
The Fed adds liquidity freely
December 22, 2019 19:04 - 6 minutes - 5.98 MBKia ora, and welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news of extremes wherever you look. The Federal Reserve pumped in another +US$211 bln to Wall Street in repo funding last week. Recall the previous week they pumped in +$367 bln. That is more than +US$ ½ tln in just two weeks in their on-going operations to add liquidity to America...
Swedes ditch negative interest rates
December 19, 2019 18:49 - 5 minutes - 4.99 MBKia ora, and welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news the first central bank to adopt negative interest rates has thrown in the towel. But first in the US, existing home sales fell nearly -2% in November from October in an unexpectedly large retreat. But year-on-year they are up +2.7%. Median prices were up +5.4% as the listings ...
Unstitching auditor roles and responsibilities
December 18, 2019 18:43 - 4 minutes - 4.08 MBKia ora, and welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news the role of auditors is being questioned fundamentally. But first in the US, it is becoming increasingly clear that China isn't going to buy American ag products at the levels touted by the Administration. That aspect of the phase one deal has been completely oversold, and b...
Gremlins infect the optimists
December 17, 2019 19:07 - 5 minutes - 4.6 MBKia ora, and welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news the stopping of Boeing 737MAX production has upended market optimism. But first up today, there has been a surprise drop in dairy prices at the overnight auction. Overall prices are down -5.1% in US dollars and -5.8% in New Zealand dollars as the Kiwi dollar has also fallen...
Up in China, still waiting in the West
December 16, 2019 18:41 - 4 minutes - 4.32 MBKia ora, and welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news economic activity in China has perked up but that trend is not evident in the West. But first, with the opening of Wall Street, trade propaganda is in full swing with the American claiming it will "double US exports to China" while the Chinese are much more modest about how m...
Major countries import less
December 15, 2019 18:39 - 5 minutes - 5.49 MBKia ora, and welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news the world trade landscape is changing with imports falling worldwide. Firstly, it does look like the "end of the beginning" in the US-China trade war has arrived. The so-called 'phase one' deal has been agreed and the US won't impose the next set of tariffs. Neither will China...
China-US trade deal seems close
December 12, 2019 18:47 - 4 minutes - 4.47 MBKia ora, and welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news a China:US trade deal might be close. Wall Street rallied earlier this morning on American claims that the trade deal is very close. But the US is only offering to cut "some" tariffs, it seems. And China doesn't want to put its ag buying promises in the deal document. It is si...
Aussie double standards exposed
December 11, 2019 18:39 - 4 minutes - 4.51 MBKia ora, and welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news Australia has had an embarrassing loss at the WTO. This is the updated version of today's briefing. First, the US budget deficit in the year to November came in at a whopping -$1.022 tln and +16% deeper than at the same period a year ago. In fact this deficit is now more tha...
China's debt stimulus takes off
December 10, 2019 18:48 - 4 minutes - 4.24 MBKia ora, and welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead news financial markets are still in a holding pattern. In an under-the-radar adjustment, the growth of American labour costs was not as high as initially reported for the third quarter. The change was significant; it was earlier reported as +3.3% pa whereas the corrected level i...