Economy Watch
1,329 episodes - English - Latest episode: 24 days ago -We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.
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Global factories turn positive
December 01, 2020 18:50 - 6 minutes - 5.56 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that factories globally are chugging along nicely at present despite the pandemic risks. But first, there was another dairy auction overnight and it was very positive. Overall prices were up +4.3% in US dollars, and despite the ever-rising Kiwi dollar, they rose in local c...
US to give up retail sales crown to China
November 30, 2020 18:37 - 4 minutes - 4.51 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's retail economy is about to grow larger than the US retail economy. But first, the closely-watched Chicago PMI came in lower than expected and a lower than for October. But it is still expanding at a good level, just at slower rate. And the November update to the Dal...
Time to clean up the mess
November 29, 2020 18:31 - 4 minutes - 4.32 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that with Trump's reign about to end, the world is left cleaning up the mess and finding out who were the winners or losers. Firstly in China, industrial profits in October for their major companies, including their SOEs, have now recovered back to year-ago levels. In fact, t...
China talks carbon neutral, acts carbon intensive
November 26, 2020 18:26 - 4 minutes - 3.92 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the bitcoin price seems to be in free fall this morning. But first up today, we need to note that the US is on holiday, a four-day Thanksgiving weekend. And all eyes will be on the Friday and weekend retail sales levels which will set the tone for retailing through to the New...
US hospital pass
November 25, 2020 18:50 - 6 minutes - 5.7 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that any recovery for the world's largest economy is looking increasingly tenuous. Their incoming Administration has been handed a mess. There is a mountain of American data to report today, a dump just before their long Thanksgiving Weekend. Next week, it will all be about...
Transition optimism in face of virus surge
November 24, 2020 18:36 - 5 minutes - 4.69 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors are looking well past the current troubles, trusting the 'new direction' will be better than the 'old direction'. Everyone from Wall Street to the progressive left of the Democrats is applauding Joe Biden's reported choice of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary. T...
Trade improvement shines through
November 23, 2020 18:30 - 4 minutes - 3.71 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some surprisingly strong trade and American data. In the US, their early PMI readings for November have come in much better than expected. Their factory PMI came in at a six year high, while their services PMI was just as strong. And that improvement has been reinforced ...
Commodity prices move higher
November 22, 2020 18:26 - 5 minutes - 5.11 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monay's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with commodity prices are on the rise again. In China, iron ore and coking coal prices are on the move higher as economic activity moves back to boom conditions. Copper has risen to more than a two year high; aluminium is up to near an 18 year high. The recent softness in shipping costs...
Bad policy decisions bite everywhere
November 19, 2020 18:44 - 5 minutes - 5.09 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news bad policy decisions are coming back to bite in ruthless ways. The weekly new jobless claims level came in higher than expected for last week at 742,000, and the prior week was also revised up. Worse, the number of people falling off this support rose sharply and exceeded 300...
Black Friday may really be black
November 18, 2020 18:39 - 5 minutes - 4.77 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of an increasing gloom and doom mood settling in, in the US and Europe. The US holiday season retail countdown is on and promotions are everywhere. But the events this year are starting with an air on desperation, even panic. Black Friday (November 27) may end up signaling ...
Market caution rises
November 17, 2020 18:39 - 4 minutes - 3.99 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets have turned more cautious. But first up, there was another dairy auction, and it was both surprisingly positive - and negative at the same time. Analysts had expected a -3.5% fall in prices this time following the prior event's -2% fall. But in fact prices rose +1....
China's bond woes spread
November 16, 2020 18:29 - 4 minutes - 4.4 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news many more Chinese companies are reporting bond, liquidity and leverage stress. But first, Wall Street is up at another new record high with a +1.0% gain so far today by the S&P500. Good trial results by another drug company with a vaccine drove this rise. It is not the near-...
China scores huge RCEP win
November 15, 2020 18:33 - 4 minutes - 4.55 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the world's largest multilateral trade deal has now been signed. The RCEP, a 15 country trade deal covering a third of global GDP and 2.2 bln people was signed yesterday and is now in force, and New Zealand was one of the signatories. New Zealand exported over $36 bn of goods...
Markets turn cautious
November 12, 2020 18:35 - 4 minutes - 3.74 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are much more cautious today, winding back the post-election, post-vaccine enthusiasm. In the US, new claims for jobless benefits fell marginally to 723,000 although the previous week's number was revised up. That makes the total number of people supported by these be...
Benchmark bond yields rise sharply
November 11, 2020 18:45 - 4 minutes - 4.39 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news a global bond yield rebound seems to be working against regulators' desire for lower rates to boost economic activity. But first in the US, mortgage rates have fallen to record low levels. Their benchmark 30 year is now below 3% for the first time ever (plus points). And th...
China stares at deflation again
November 10, 2020 18:41 - 4 minutes - 4.55 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that despite a sharply recovering economy, China seems to be challenged by deflation again. But first, the latest assessment of US retail sales shows them softening quite noticeably and down -1.2% from the prior week. And that means the year-on-year gain of +3.2% has falle...
Vaccine news catapults the Biden bounce
November 09, 2020 18:44 - 4 minutes - 4.53 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news risk is 'on' in a big way today. First, global financial markets are delivering a strong Biden bounce. Equities are up sharply as are benchmark bond yields. Commodity prices are generally higher, some have jumped a lot. But precious metals have sunk in very big moves. The C...
China's annoyance with Australian independence grows
November 08, 2020 18:33 - 5 minutes - 5.24 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is using the American election distraction to ramp up its pressure on Australia. But first, China has turned in a very strong trade result in October. Exports came in much stronger (+11%) than the strong result anticipated (+9%). Imports came in much softer (+5%) than a...
Change, with a stalemate?
November 05, 2020 18:48 - 5 minutes - 5.41 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are speculating on a change of administration in the US. The US election result is still uncertain this morning, and the US dollar is falling at the same time speculative asset prices are sharply higher. Gold and bitcoin have made substantial gains overnight. Equity p...
Virus eats America as it counts votes
November 04, 2020 18:45 - 5 minutes - 4.91 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that while all eyes are focused on the US election, their pandemic is eating away at them more aggressively now. But first, despite aggressive claims, there is still no election result in the US even though the incumbent seems to be in the better position. And again, this i...
China flexes its muscles
November 03, 2020 18:51 - 5 minutes - 5.43 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some very aggressive Chinese regulatory action overnight. But first, the world is waiting on the US election results. Short lines and calm are features of today's turnout. It may be days before it is clear, but markets are already betting on a change in leadership, even...
The world's factories ramp back up
November 02, 2020 18:29 - 3 minutes - 3.52 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is no way to avoid the US election today, but there is other economic news. Today we start with data that shows factories expanding in almost all markets, some strength markets hadn't counted on. In the US, there were two PMIs released overnight. The widely-watched IS...
The virus is winning (except here)
November 01, 2020 18:26 - 5 minutes - 4.71 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news trade uncertainty is growing as the pandemic surges again, and that uncertainly may be compounded by politics. This is the week of the US Presidential election. Investors’ eyes will be firmly on it because either outcome, or even a contested outcome, will likely have a signif...
Commodities hit hard
October 29, 2020 18:43 - 4 minutes - 4.3 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of large drops in commodity prices, especially for gold and oil. First, the expected rebound in economic activity was recorded in the American GDP data for Q3-2020 from the June quarter. But that still leaves their economy operating -2.9% lower than in Q3-2019. In current dol...
Investors take more hits
October 28, 2020 18:40 - 4 minutes - 4.35 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more heavy falls in share markets of countries suffering from renewed virus hits. But first, the US merchandise trade balance for September was -US$85 bln, matching August and just marginally less than the record set in July. Exports were down -10% year-on-year while imp...
Investors turn less gung-ho
October 27, 2020 18:36 - 4 minutes - 3.98 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that in a world of rising uncertainty, markets are getting increasingly cautious. In the US, durable goods orders rose more in September from August than anticipated by analysts. However, they showed zero growth on a year-on-year basis. But orders for non-defense capital g...
Markets dive as pandemic bites harder
October 26, 2020 18:41 - 5 minutes - 4.97 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the combination of bad pandemic policies and a coming winter look worrying for northern hemisphere economies. First up today, Wall Street is falling rather sharply, and is down -2.7% in mid afternoon trade and getting worse by the hour. Overnight, European markets were also ...
Stimulus means higher house prices
October 22, 2020 18:50 - 5 minutes - 5.04 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news rising house prices are becoming a signature global consequence of all the pandemic stimulus. But first in the US, new unemployment benefit claims for last week came in quite a bit lower than expected at +787,000 when +860,000 was anticipated. But qualifications of those on t...
Northern droughts threaten food prices
October 21, 2020 18:44 - 4 minutes - 4.41 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news food prices are now expected to rise as northern hemisphere drought conditions have capped their growing season. But first, the latest Beige Book summary of regional Fed economic activity is somber reading. Only "slight to modest" expansions are now being recorded in all Di...
Tackling big tech
October 20, 2020 18:42 - 5 minutes - 4.71 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American competition authorities are tackling the dominance of big tech, finally. But first up today, there was another dairy auction overnight and another small rise in the overall price. This is the third in a row and the smallest gain of the three. Rises for WMP (+0.3%)...
Debt questions over China's post-pandemic economic growth
October 19, 2020 18:34 - 5 minutes - 4.69 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news data out of China has confirmed it is back growing again. But first in the US, talks between the Congress and the Administration are dragging on in search of agreement for more stimulus for their battered economy. But few now think the Republicans will agree. China reported...
China blocks more Aussie trade
October 18, 2020 18:13 - 4 minutes - 4.39 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the pressures of weighing against the pandemic is about to bring a 'blizzard' of sovereign ratings downgrades. Standard & Poor's is saying that the immense costs of supporting health programs, businesses and workers through the pandemic was fundamentally undermining most coun...
US poverty rises sharply
October 15, 2020 18:44 - 5 minutes - 4.65 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that as American jobless benefits expire, the rise in poverty distress follows. New claims for unemployment benefits in the US came in just under 900,000 last week and that was much higher than the 825,000 expected. And the number of people still qualified and getting these b...
Data surprises cause double-takes
October 14, 2020 18:42 - 4 minutes - 3.99 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some surprising data out overnight. But first in the US, producer price inflation has ticked up to +1.2% pa in September, twice the pace of their August rate. But that is lower than their CPI inflation which came in at +1.4% in the same month. Moving over to China, the...
China's trade orbit shines
October 13, 2020 18:37 - 5 minutes - 4.62 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news those in China's trade orbit are doing well, those not less so. But first in the US, retail sales were flat again last week, with a year-on-year gain of just +1.2% and lower than the prior week's +2.1% gain on the same basis. And there is no stirring of overall consumer p...
China takes a big stick to Australia
October 12, 2020 18:29 - 4 minutes - 3.68 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news tensions with China are ramping up. China is reported to have suspended imports of Australian coal in what is being seen as punishment for the Aussie's independent and critical positions taken on China's security, human rights and virus responses. A lot is at stake here. Coa...
A changing of the guard?
October 11, 2020 18:36 - 5 minutes - 5.13 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's domestic economy seems to be replacing the American one in driving international trade The Chinese services sector reported another solid increase in business activity in September, cementing in a fifth straight month of expansion. They seem well past the pandemic str...
Tough conditions ahead
October 08, 2020 18:35 - 4 minutes - 3.74 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the pandemic resurgence is snuffing out any chance of a near-term economic recovery. In the US, the level of jobless claims came in higher than expected for last week at +840,000 and similar to the previous week. But the number of people still accessing unemployment benefits ...
Wall Street likes Washington's crony focus
October 07, 2020 18:45 - 5 minutes - 4.87 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American policy is very skittish and uncertain, shifting daily now. The just-released US Fed minutes show officials grappled with how to tailor their new policy framework for the pandemic-scarred economy when they met last month. Grappling is probably understating it. New ...
The world has a car crash economy
October 06, 2020 18:55 - 6 minutes - 5.51 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more evidence the global economy is closer to a serious long-term downturn. But first up today, there has been another satisfactory dairy auction overnight. On average prices were up +2.2% in US dollar terms and up +3.4% in New Zealand dollar terms. Volumes sold were ab...
Markets ignore warnings of difficult pandemic outlook
October 05, 2020 18:37 - 5 minutes - 5.01 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets have turned positive today, even as officials warn of a difficult period ahead for the pandemic. There were two services sector temperature checks out overnight. Both show a good expansion, now getting the post-pandemic bounce the factory sector got earlier. The wide...
Improvement hard to find
October 04, 2020 18:34 - 5 minutes - 5.08 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news some big economies may be seeing minor improvement, but it is inconsistent. First in Japan, a major steelmaker there is to restart an idled furnaced line in response to rising orders from the domestic car and consumer electronics industries. This is the type of positive signa...
US job-loss lifelines run out
October 01, 2020 18:42 - 6 minutes - 5.93 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news job-loss benefit lifelines are running out fast in the US. Markets have eyes on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report and expect new jobs to recover about +850,000 of the earlier losses, less than in prior months. But today, job retrenchment data was released for September and...
Data positives and stimulus hopes
September 30, 2020 18:51 - 5 minutes - 5.11 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there are some positives to report today, but they may well be just temporary. This weekend the August non-farm payrolls report for the US will be released and analysts are expecting a gain of +850,000 jobs in the world's largest economy comes back from the pandemic downtur...
Improving sentiment, but from a low base
September 29, 2020 18:49 - 5 minutes - 5.16 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of improving sentiment in many large countries, even if levels aren't back to pre-pandemic standards. Last week's American retail sales were lower than the previous week but they were +2.2% higher than the same week a year ago, and this is considered a positive trend. But...
The risk-off, risk-on yoyo continues
September 28, 2020 18:34 - 4 minutes - 4.19 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors have turned positive in global equity markets. The latest American regional factory survey is out and it is for Texas. It is a positive report, showing a fourth straight month of gains. However that string of gains is still -30% short of the sharp three months of l...
US factory orders weaker
September 27, 2020 18:20 - 6 minutes - 5.51 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American factory orders are remaining weak and missing analysts recovery projections badly. But first up, China has reported that its industry is recovering its profitability and in quite a strong manner. In August they were down -4.4% from the same month a year ago, but that...
Economic progress hard to find
September 24, 2020 19:40 - 4 minutes - 3.92 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the chronic economic weaknesses from the pandemic aren't going away. American new jobless claims came in higher than expected at +870,000 last week and higher than the prior week. (Analysts expected +840,000.) Continuing claims were lower by -167,000 in the week as benefits e...
Wall Street takes fright again
September 23, 2020 19:43 - 5 minutes - 4.8 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American investors have taken fright again. A new report out overnight says that globally, labour income has fallen almost -11%, or US$3.5 tln, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. But the figure excludes income support provided throug...
All Chinese companies captured by Beijing
September 22, 2020 19:45 - 4 minutes - 4.3 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China has co-opted all its companies, state-owned and private, as agents of it political goals. But first, US retail sales fell last week from the prior one and extending the slippage. But at least they were just ahead of the same week a year ago. But American home sales ...