“Where Are the Grown-Ups?” Systems, Complexity, and Experiments With JP Castlin | Business Games S02e02

Originally planned to be Episode 1 of Season 1 (as per audio), becomes S02e02 because we now have 2 full intro episodes and can't have Episode 0 or Season Zero on the podcast platforms.
Next week, we'll talk about Experimental Economics—but in this episode, JP Castlin talks to us about complexity, how understanding complexity is relevant for running a business, and how it all relates to experimentation.
About Business Games: https://www.business-games.ai/about/ (www.business-games.ai/about/)
ContentsAdd ~1 min to the timestamps after 11th minute mark.
Introduction [00:00]
On Complexity: A Primer [03:55]
On Systems: In Nature and Organizations—Ordered Clear, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic [04:38]
A Marketing Example of a Dispositional System [06:14]
…and a Chaotic System [06:53]
On Experimenting in Different Kinds of Systems [07:09]
On Two Types of Uncertainty: Epistemic (Knowledge-based) and Aleatory (Inherent and Irreducible) [08:11]
On Contexts and More on Quantum Mechanics Vs Newtonian Physics [12:02]
On How to Deal with Uncertainty in Complexity [13:49]
Fail-safe Vs Safe-to-fail: Marvel Vs Blumhouse [15:15]
Experimentation in Various Contexts [19:13]
Online Vs Offline, and Operational Efficiency Vs Strategic Choice [20:28]
On Eternal Boiling, Premature Convergence, A/B Testing, and Local Optima [23:46]
System Has Its Own Behaviour: Ants and Colonies [26:52]
Strategy and (Equi-) Probability [27:53]
On Not Getting Disheartened [30:58]
On Boundary Conditions, Company-specific Metrics, Scaling and Dampening [31:57]
On Corporate Versus SME, Small Versus Big [34:28]
On Product Versus Service [36:40]
On Services, Complexity, Causality, and Defensive Decision-making [39:24]
On the Value of Consultants in Complexity [46:12]
On Cost-out Versus Value-add, Start-ups and Scaling [49:36]
On Start-ups and Proprietary Data [51:09]
On Deliberate Versus Emergent Strategy [52:54]
(More) on How to Deal with Complex Problems in Practice [55:02]
The Homework [57:39]
JP’s Own Work as It Relates to Experiments, Strategy, and Complexity [01:00:17]
On the Key Takeaways: Both Jokingly and Seriously [01:07:18]
On Emotions in Experimentation [01:10:24]
Links to JP’s WorkSubstack: https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/ (Strategy in Praxis) https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/ (https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/)
WWW: https://jpcastlin.com/ (JP Castlin) https://jpcastlin.com/ (https://jpcastlin.com/)
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JPCastlin (@JPCastlin) https://twitter.com/JPCastlin (https://twitter.com/JPCastlin)
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpcastlin/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpcastlin/)
MarketingWeek: https://www.marketingweek.com/author/jp-castlin/ (https://www.marketingweek.com/author/jp-castlin/)
Articleshttps://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/laplace-and-demons (Laplace & Demons - Strategy in Praxis | (substack.com))
https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/p/bets-and-blockbusters (Bets & Blockbusters - Strategy in Praxis | (substack.com))
https://www.marketingweek.com/jp-castlin-marc-pritchard-pg-act-like-startup/ (Marc Pritchard knows better than to believe P&G can act like a startup | (marketingweek.com))
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/where-grown-ups-jp-castlin/ (Where are the grown-ups? | LinkedIn)
Some Other Links Mentionedhttp://apppm.man.dtu.dk/index.php/Epistemic_vs._Aleatory_uncertainty (Epistemic vs. Aleatory uncertainty - apppm (dtu.dk))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework (Cynefin Framework | Wikipedia)
https://www.amazon.com/Good-Strategy-Bad-Difference-Matters/dp/0307886239 (Good Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters | Amazon)
http://marketinglawsofgrowth.com/ (How Brands Grow)
https://www.cognitive-edge.com/ (Cognitive Edge | The Cynefin Company)

Originally planned to be Episode 1 of Season 1 (as per audio), becomes S02e02 because we now have 2 full intro episodes and can't have Episode 0 or Season Zero on the podcast platforms.

Next week, we'll talk about Experimental Economics—but in this episode, JP Castlin talks to us about complexity, how understanding complexity is relevant for running a business, and how it all relates to experimentation.

About Business Games: www.business-games.ai/about/

Contents

Add ~1 min to the timestamps after 11th minute mark.

Introduction [00:00]On Complexity: A Primer [03:55]On Systems: In Nature and Organizations—Ordered Clear, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic [04:38]A Marketing Example of a Dispositional System [06:14]…and a Chaotic System [06:53]On Experimenting in Different Kinds of Systems [07:09]On Two Types of Uncertainty: Epistemic (Knowledge-based) and Aleatory (Inherent and Irreducible) [08:11]On Contexts and More on Quantum Mechanics Vs Newtonian Physics [12:02]On How to Deal with Uncertainty in Complexity [13:49]Fail-safe Vs Safe-to-fail: Marvel Vs Blumhouse [15:15]Experimentation in Various Contexts [19:13]Online Vs Offline, and Operational Efficiency Vs Strategic Choice [20:28]On Eternal Boiling, Premature Convergence, A/B Testing, and Local Optima [23:46]System Has Its Own Behaviour: Ants and Colonies [26:52]Strategy and (Equi-) Probability [27:53]On Not Getting Disheartened [30:58]On Boundary Conditions, Company-specific Metrics, Scaling and Dampening [31:57]On Corporate Versus SME, Small Versus Big [34:28]On Product Versus Service [36:40]On Services, Complexity, Causality, and Defensive Decision-making [39:24]On the Value of Consultants in Complexity [46:12]On Cost-out Versus Value-add, Start-ups and Scaling [49:36]On Start-ups and Proprietary Data [51:09]On Deliberate Versus Emergent Strategy [52:54](More) on How to Deal with Complex Problems in Practice [55:02]The Homework [57:39]JP’s Own Work as It Relates to Experiments, Strategy, and Complexity [01:00:17]On the Key Takeaways: Both Jokingly and Seriously [01:07:18]On Emotions in Experimentation [01:10:24]Links to JP’s WorkSubstack: Strategy in Praxis https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/WWW: JP Castlin https://jpcastlin.com/Twitter: @JPCastlin https://twitter.com/JPCastlinLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpcastlin/MarketingWeek: https://www.marketingweek.com/author/jp-castlin/ArticlesLaplace & Demons - Strategy in Praxis | (substack.com)Bets & Blockbusters - Strategy in Praxis | (substack.com)Marc Pritchard knows better than to believe P&G can act like a startup | (marketingweek.com)Where are the grown-ups? | LinkedInSome Other Links MentionedEpistemic vs. Aleatory uncertainty - apppm (dtu.dk)Cynefin Framework | WikipediaGood Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters | AmazonHow Brands GrowCognitive Edge | The Cynefin Company