“Where Are the Grown-Ups?”

JP Castlin on Complexity, what it means for your business, and how to deal with it via safe-to-fail experimentation.

Originally planned to be Episode 1 of Season 1 (as per audio), becomes S02e02 because we now have 2 full intro episodes and can't have Episode 0 or Season Zero on the podcast platforms.

Next week, we'll talk about Experimental Economics—but in this episode, JP Castlin talks to us about complexity, how understanding complexity is relevant for running a business, and how it all relates to experimentation.

About Business Games: www.business-games.ai/about/

Contents

Add ~1 min to the timestamps after 11th minute mark.

Introduction [00:00]On Complexity: A Primer [03:55]On Systems: In Nature and Organizations—Ordered Clear, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic [04:38]A Marketing Example of a Dispositional System [06:14]…and a Chaotic System [06:53]On Experimenting in Different Kinds of Systems [07:09]On Two Types of Uncertainty: Epistemic (Knowledge-based) and Aleatory (Inherent and Irreducible) [08:11]On Contexts and More on Quantum Mechanics Vs Newtonian Physics [12:02]On How to Deal with Uncertainty in Complexity [13:49]Fail-safe Vs Safe-to-fail: Marvel Vs Blumhouse [15:15]Experimentation in Various Contexts [19:13]Online Vs Offline, and Operational Efficiency Vs Strategic Choice [20:28]On Eternal Boiling, Premature Convergence, A/B Testing, and Local Optima [23:46]System Has Its Own Behaviour: Ants and Colonies [26:52]Strategy and (Equi-) Probability [27:53]On Not Getting Disheartened [30:58]On Boundary Conditions, Company-specific Metrics, Scaling and Dampening [31:57]On Corporate Versus SME, Small Versus Big [34:28]On Product Versus Service [36:40]On Services, Complexity, Causality, and Defensive Decision-making [39:24]On the Value of Consultants in Complexity [46:12]On Cost-out Versus Value-add, Start-ups and Scaling [49:36]On Start-ups and Proprietary Data [51:09]On Deliberate Versus Emergent Strategy [52:54](More) on How to Deal with Complex Problems in Practice [55:02]The Homework [57:39]JP’s Own Work as It Relates to Experiments, Strategy, and Complexity [01:00:17]On the Key Takeaways: Both Jokingly and Seriously [01:07:18]On Emotions in Experimentation [01:10:24]
Links to JP’s WorkSubstack: Strategy in Praxis https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/WWW: JP Castlin https://jpcastlin.com/Twitter: @JPCastlin https://twitter.com/JPCastlinLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpcastlin/MarketingWeek: 

JP Castlin on Complexity, what it means for your business, and how to deal with it via safe-to-fail experimentation.

Originally planned to be Episode 1 of Season 1 (as per audio), becomes S02e02 because we now have 2 full intro episodes and can't have Episode 0 or Season Zero on the podcast platforms.

Next week, we'll talk about Experimental Economics—but in this episode, JP Castlin talks to us about complexity, how understanding complexity is relevant for running a business, and how it all relates to experimentation.

About Business Games: www.business-games.ai/about/

Contents

Add ~1 min to the timestamps after 11th minute mark.

Introduction [00:00]On Complexity: A Primer [03:55]On Systems: In Nature and Organizations—Ordered Clear, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic [04:38]A Marketing Example of a Dispositional System [06:14]…and a Chaotic System [06:53]On Experimenting in Different Kinds of Systems [07:09]On Two Types of Uncertainty: Epistemic (Knowledge-based) and Aleatory (Inherent and Irreducible) [08:11]On Contexts and More on Quantum Mechanics Vs Newtonian Physics [12:02]On How to Deal with Uncertainty in Complexity [13:49]Fail-safe Vs Safe-to-fail: Marvel Vs Blumhouse [15:15]Experimentation in Various Contexts [19:13]Online Vs Offline, and Operational Efficiency Vs Strategic Choice [20:28]On Eternal Boiling, Premature Convergence, A/B Testing, and Local Optima [23:46]System Has Its Own Behaviour: Ants and Colonies [26:52]Strategy and (Equi-) Probability [27:53]On Not Getting Disheartened [30:58]On Boundary Conditions, Company-specific Metrics, Scaling and Dampening [31:57]On Corporate Versus SME, Small Versus Big [34:28]On Product Versus Service [36:40]On Services, Complexity, Causality, and Defensive Decision-making [39:24]On the Value of Consultants in Complexity [46:12]On Cost-out Versus Value-add, Start-ups and Scaling [49:36]On Start-ups and Proprietary Data [51:09]On Deliberate Versus Emergent Strategy [52:54](More) on How to Deal with Complex Problems in Practice [55:02]The Homework [57:39]JP’s Own Work as It Relates to Experiments, Strategy, and Complexity [01:00:17]On the Key Takeaways: Both Jokingly and Seriously [01:07:18]On Emotions in Experimentation [01:10:24]
Links to JP’s WorkSubstack: Strategy in Praxis https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/WWW: JP Castlin https://jpcastlin.com/Twitter: @JPCastlin https://twitter.com/JPCastlinLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpcastlin/MarketingWeek: https://www.marketingweek.com/author/jp-castlin/
ArticlesLaplace & Demons - Strategy in Praxis | (substack.com)Bets & Blockbusters - Strategy in Praxis | (substack.com)Marc Pritchard knows better than to believe P&G can act like a startup | (marketingweek.com)Where are the grown-ups? | LinkedIn
Some Other Links MentionedEpistemic vs. Aleatory uncertainty - apppm (dtu.dk)Cynefin Framework | WikipediaGood Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters | AmazonHow Brands GrowCognitive Edge | The Cynefin Company