Arms Control Wonk
197 episodes - English - Latest episode: 3 months ago - ★★★★★ - 400 ratingsThe nuclear weapons, arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation podcast. Companion to the popular Arms Control Wonk blog (www.armscontrolwonk.com). Hosted by Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein.
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Episodes
Putin's Nuke-a-palooza
March 02, 2018 18:29 - 40 minutes - 37.5 MBRussian president Vladimir Putin presented his annual address yesterday. He showed off a bunch of new or recent nuclear weapons systems, designed to defeat US missile defenses. The weirdest idea of all is a nuclear power cruise missile with global range. You read that right. Nuclear powered. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott convene to discuss Russia’s new generation of insane nuclear weapons, ponder how we got here, and wonder what the hell we can do about it. Links of Note: Video Links! ...
Missile Materiel and Adventures in Munich
February 26, 2018 22:00 - 47 minutes - 43.2 MBWe’re back. After a brief hiatus, Jeffrey and Aaron return from their myriad trips. The show documents Aaron and superproducer Scott’s visit to missile central down at joint-base Anacostia, where the two got an up close and personal viewing of the Qiam/Burkan 2-H and other assorted Iranian made goodies on display. Jeffrey then filled Aaron in on his trip to the Munich Security Conference and his assorted medical ailments while traveling through out Germany. Links of Note: Our two pri...
KCN-eh? December and January's Other North Korean Developments
February 07, 2018 16:33 - 44 minutes - 40.8 MBA Canadian reviews the last two months' North Korea news with a special guest. Andrea talks to Scott LaFoy for a whirlwind tour of December and January's developments. They cover Kim Jong Un's New Years Address, the Vancouver Foreign Ministers Meeting, and those pesky ship-to-ship transfers the North Koreans are so fond of these days. Links of Note: Andrea's pre-mortem of the Vancouver Meeting at Arms Control Wonk. Andrea's discussion of the Olympic exchanges and negotiations ove...
Agonizing over the Agni
January 24, 2018 15:06 - 40 minutes - 36.8 MBIndia launched the Agni-V intermediate-range ballistic missile. Launch a missile, get a pod. Aaron is skiing in Vail, so The Diplomat's Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey to discuss India's nuclear and missile programs from rail mobile missiles to the guy who flooded India's only ballistic missile submarine. Links of Note: Ankit's Twitter thread on Agni test imagery. Ankit and Prashanth Parameswaran did an excellent pod over at The Diplomat covering the Arihant and the Agni V. Suppor...
Reviewing the Nuclear Posture Review
January 16, 2018 14:12 - 36 minutes - 33.5 MBA draft of the Trump Administration's Nuclear Posture Review has leaked -- and its a doozy. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the history of these reviews and recommendations to develop a new sea-launched cruise missile and a variable yield warhead for the Trident D5 submarine launched ballistic missile. Links of Note: The Huffpost article that originally leaked the document. The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review from the Obama administration. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Spon...
Tightening the Screws on the INF
January 12, 2018 15:38 - 44 minutes - 40.4 MBThe Trump Administration is naming names, confirming what Jeffrey has long said — that the new cruise missile Russia is building in violation of the 1987 INF Treaty is the 9M729, which is known in the US as the SSC-8 Screwdriver. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss Russia’s violation of the INF Treaty, offering a deep dive on the new ground-launched cruise missile and the RS-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile. Previous Podcast Episodes about this Topic: An Era Without Arms Control? The IN...
The Donald and The Nuclear VI: Pushin' My Buttons
January 05, 2018 12:41 - 46 minutes - 42.5 MBWe usually avoid chasing Trump’s tweets but when the President of the United States says his button is bigger than Kim Jong Un's ... well, we’re not made of stone. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about whether Trump is bluffing and what the disarray in the White House says about policy process issues. Links of Note: The tweet in question and a backup in case it disappears. Previous Entries in The Donald and The Nuclear series on executive power and nuclear weapons: The Donald, The...
Up Close and Personal with Iranian Drones
December 31, 2017 19:14 - 42 minutes - 38.6 MBAmbassador Nikki Haley gave quite the presentation a few weeks ago. Standing in front of two Qiam/Burkan-2H missile pieces, the US Ambassador the UN called out Iran for its proliferation activities in the Middle East. Two weeks, Aaron and Jeffrey talked at length about the missile. In this episode, Aaron circles back to the other two objects shown off: An Iranian drone and suicide boat. To talk Iranian drones and regional proliferation, Aaron spoke with Adam Rawnsley, the co-author of Fore...
Japan and JASSM
December 20, 2017 14:29 - 33 minutes - 30.7 MBJapanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera announced that Tokyo wants to acquire a pair of long-range cruise missiles -- the 500 km-range Joint Strike Missile from Norway and the 1000 km range JASSM-ER -- to arm the country's new F-35. Aaron and Jeffrey discussion the implications for Article 9 of Japan's constitution and stability in the region. Links of Note: Japan Times article on the Japanese Ministry of Defense's plans for cruise missile acquisitions. Sponsored Links: Our spon...
Up Close and Personal with the Qiam
December 15, 2017 21:44 - 40 minutes - 37.1 MBU.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley gave a dog-and-pony show with debris from the recent Houthi missile strikes against Saudi Arabia. Jeffrey and Aaron go over the debris, explaining why the U.S. thinks the Yemeni Burkan-2H is actually the Iranian Qiam and asking what that means. Links of Note: DVIDS Hub link to the 5568 x 3712 photos of the alleged Iranian missiles being fired into Saudi Arabia by the Houthis in Yemen. Sponsored Links: Our sponsor this episode ...
A Swing and a Miss in Saudi Arabia
December 12, 2017 15:03 - 28 minutes - 26 MB"A shot was just taken by Iran, in my opinion, at Saudi Arabia. And our system knocked it down," Donald Trump told reporters. "That's how good we are. Nobody makes what we make and now we're selling it all over the world.” Except it missed. Or maybe never even fired. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the CNS OSINT teams investigation of the missile attack on the Riyadh airport that appeared in the New York Times. Links of Note: The New York Times article investigating the missile attack. ...
KCN-eh? November's Other North Korean Developments
December 06, 2017 16:04 - 1 hour - 56.6 MBA Canadian reviews the month’s North Korea news with a special guest. For November, Andrea talks to John Hemmings, the Director of the Asia Studies Centre at the Henry Jackson Society. They dig into major stories about North Korean defectors and the Kim Jong Nam assassination, and consider the stunning views from Cathay Pacific flights. Links of Note: Defector crosses the border at Panmunjom. Statement by Rex Tillerson on the Hwasong-15 launch. Kim Jong Nam carrying VX antid...
North Korea's Big Frickin' Missile
November 30, 2017 22:45 - 36 minutes - 33.8 MBNorth Korea tested a new ICBM called the Hwasong-15. We'll keep these show notes brief. Its frickin’ huge. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott discuss the missile, the launch site, the truck that carried it, and its oh-so-roomy payload. Links of Note: Dave Schmerler compiled the KCNA imagery into one big flickr album.
The Donald and the Nuclear V: The Senate Strikes Back
November 21, 2017 14:23 - 34 minutes - 31.3 MB“Liddle Bob Corker” and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on the President’s authority to use nuclear weapons. A bipartisan panel testified that “it’s fine.” But is it? Aaron and Jeffrey discuss Trump, the bomb, and the President’s War Powers. Links of Note: C-SPAN video of the entire Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing on Nuclear Weapons Authority.
South Korea's Missile Arsenal Expands
November 13, 2017 16:42 - 26 minutes - 36.4 MBThe US and South Korea agreed to revise the missile guidelines that have limited South Korea’s missile programs since the 1970s. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the origin of those limits, their evolution, and the impact of missile proliferation on the Korean Peninsula. Links of Note: Arms Control Wonk article about South Korea's Anheung Proving Grounds, where the missile tests occur. Our last podcast on the Hyunmoo-2C, South Korea's latest publicly displayed missile.
Missiles over the Middle East
November 08, 2017 21:34 - 37 minutes - 51.9 MBMajor General Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, recently stated that Iran has no need to extend the range of its missiles beyond 2,000 km. With debates about Iran's missile program affecting the debate about the Iran nuclear deal, Aaron and Jeffrey take a survey of regional missile proliferation from Egypt to Iran. Special bonus, Jeffrey tries not to giggle uncontrollably every time Aaron mentions the Hague Code of Conduct, aka the H-COC. Links of No...
KCN-eh? October's Other North Korean Developments
November 01, 2017 12:29 - 53 minutes - 49 MBA Canadian reviews the month's North Korea news with a special guest. For October, Andrea talks to Adam Cathcart -- a lecturer at Leeds University and editor of the website Sino-NK. They dig into the events of the 19th Party Congress in China, talk about the dodgy stuff the Egyptians have been buying from Pyongyang, and try to figure out what's in the water (or maple syrup) up North. Links of Note: Adam Cathcart's China Brief article on Chinese PLA troop movements near the border wi...
Our Source was the New York Times
October 30, 2017 17:20 - 36 minutes - 33.1 MBThe New York Times has a splashy interactive editorial, "Trump’s Nuclear Arsenal." It's good, but gets a few things wrong -- things that matter like Mutual Assured Destruction, Robert McNamara's famous thought experiment on sizing US nuclear forces, and how the US targets nuclear weapons. Also, they misuse decimate. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the problems with US nuclear policy and Jeffrey's proposal to state that the US will not use nuclear weapon against a target if a conventio...
97% Invincible
October 26, 2017 14:11 - 29 minutes - 27.2 MBPresident Trump said each of the missile defense interceptors at the Ground-based Midcourse Defense site in Alaska has a 97% chance of shooting down a North Korean missile and that two would have a 100% chance. Statistics don't work like that, at least that's not how it was taught where Jeffrey and Aaron went to school. We discuss how to think about missile defenses and statistical risk, while Scott joins us to explain the online calculator he built for just such a problem. Link...
Uranium Fever
October 23, 2017 00:54 - 23 minutes - 21.5 MBNo, Hilary Clinton did not sell America's uranium to Russia. Aaron and Jeffrey attempt to patiently discuss the Uranium One purchase of Willow Creek uranium mine, the US firm that bribed Russian officials to win trucking contracts, and why this particular conspiracy theory is so prevalent in American political discourse. Links of Note: The Washington Post article fact checking the President's claim. The 2015 New York Times article that set the conspiracy theorizing in motion. ...
Decertification Day
October 17, 2017 14:04 - 53 minutes - 48.7 MBDonald Trump announced a new "strategy" -- loosely defined -- for confronting Iran. Trump also will refuse to certify that Iran is implementing its commitments under the Iran nuclear deal, aka the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), throwing the issue back to Congress and (possibly) starting a second nuclear crisis. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why Congress created the requirement to certify the Iran nuclear deal, why Trump hates it, and what happens now. Links of Note: NPR ...
ICAN wins the Nobel Peace Prize
October 12, 2017 17:40 - 45 minutes - 41.5 MBICAN won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize for its work on "for its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons." Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the prize, the treaty to ban nuclear weapons, and efforts to promote disarmament Links of Note: NTI's fact page on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Our episodes on the ban treaty negotiations,...
Scuttling Der Wienerplan
October 03, 2017 12:07 - 43 minutes - 39.4 MBDonald Trump told the United Nations that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka the Iran nuclear deal aka the Vienna Plan aka der Weinerplan) between Iran and the so-called E3/U-3 "Is an embarrassment to the United States, and I don't think you've heard the last of it -- believe me." Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the prospects for Trump to walk away from the Iran nuclear deal, why that would be a bad idea, why the "section T" talking point is tendentious nonsense, and why its time to ...
KCN-eh? September's Other North Korean Developments
September 29, 2017 16:24 - 43 minutes - 39.9 MBA Canadian reviews the month's North Korea news with a special guest. For September, Andrea talks to Alison Evans -- deputy head of Asia-Pacific country risk at IHS Markit. They revisit UN General Assembly drama, developments in alliance politics, and North Korea's stunning victory at Disney puns.
Banks and the Bomb
September 25, 2017 14:56 - 49 minutes - 45.8 MBProliferators not only need to move goods around the world to support their WMD and missile programs, they need to move money too. How do they get into the international financial system undetected? Can banks do more to stop them? Who is leading the global charge on countering proliferation finance? Andrea talks to Tom Keatinge, a former investment banker-turned financial crime specialist. Links of Note The Financial Action Task Force Recommendations FATF Combating...
Tiny Nukes for Tiny Hands
September 19, 2017 13:12 - 40 minutes - 37.1 MBThe Trump Administration is reportedly mulling the development of new "low yield" nuclear weapons in its Nuclear Posture Review. But is this really new? Or is it that we just don't trust the Trump Administration with sharp objects, let alone the bomb. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the recent history of proposals for new nuclear weapons, including low-yield ones, as well as how partisan framing and foreign perceptions may matter more than the technical reality. Links of Note: Bryan ...
North Korea's Missile Submarine(s): Part 3
September 08, 2017 14:35 - 26 minutes - 24.2 MBThe final part in our three part series! Episode 1 can be found here. Episode 2 is here. This addendum episode includes discussion on new developments, the DPRK's 'Site B' for SLBMs, and the Golf submarines. In addition to a new ICBM and thermonuclear weapon, North Korea is also developing new class of solid-fueled missiles. Joseph Dempsey from the International Institute for Strategic Studies joins Jeffrey in a special three part episode to discuss the Pukguksong-1 submarine laun...
North Korea's Missile Submarine(s): Part 2
September 08, 2017 14:25 - 27 minutes - 24.9 MBThe second part in our three part series! Episode 1 can be found here. In addition to a new ICBM and thermonuclear weapon, North Korea is also developing new class of solid-fueled missiles. Joseph Dempsey from the International Institute for Strategic Studies joins Jeffrey in a special three part episode to discuss the Pukguksong-1 submarine launched ballistic missile, the land-based Pukguksong-2 medium range ballistic missile, and Kim Jong Un's visit to the Chemical Material Institu...
North Korea's Missile Submarine(s): Part 1
September 07, 2017 20:00 - 58 minutes - 53.2 MBIn addition to a new ICBM and thermonuclear weapon, North Korea is also developing new class of solid-fueled missiles. Joseph Dempsey from the International Institute for Strategic Studies joins Jeffrey in a special three part episode to discuss the Pukguksong-1 submarine launched ballistic missile, the land-based Pukguksong-2 medium range ballistic missile, and Kim Jong Un's visit to the Chemical Material Institute in Hamhung. Part 1 of 3, originally recorded in August, befor...
North Korea Tests an H-bomb
September 05, 2017 18:35 - 49 minutes - 45.6 MBJeffrey was lounging at the beach with his phone off. You know what the means: NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR TEST TIME! North Korea released images of Kim Jong Un inspecting what looked like a two-stage thermonuclear weapon and then, before analysts could pretend it was just a pinata, kablooie! North Korea detonated its largest nuclear explosive ever, with a yield of a few hundred kilotons. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about North Korea's H-bomb and try to end on that ever elusive happy note. Links of...
An Era Without Arms Control?
August 28, 2017 13:23 - 55 minutes - 51 MBThe relationship between the United States and Russia is in the toilet. The FY 2018 National Defense Authorization Act contains a number of provisions that call into question the viability of the INF and New START treaties, as well as the future of the entire bilateral arms control process. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss Russian nuclear modernization including new missiles like the Son of Satan, RS-26 Rubezh and the 9M729 GLCM and the prospect of renewed nuclear testing at Novaya Zemlya. ...
North Korean Sanctions and Shellfish
August 21, 2017 12:12 - 46 minutes - 43 MBIn all the squinting at shiny missile bits, the bigger picture on North Korea has gotten a bit lost. Jeffrey and Andrea talk about some of the less pointy topics like new sanctions on North Korea, mollusks, and the reaction in Japan and South Korea. Links of Note Andrea's article on the new UN sanctions. UN Security Council Resolution 2371 (2017). U.S. Fact Sheet on Resolution 2371 (2017) Strengthening Sanctions on North Korea. U.S. unilateral sanctions introduced in the Coun...
The Donald and The Nuclear Goblet of Fire (And Fury)
August 11, 2017 13:32 - 42 minutes - 38.4 MBThe fourth part in our The Donald and The Nuclear series. The crazy lunatic with the odd hair style and long-range nuclear weapons is talking about "fire and fury". So naturally North Korea's Kim Jong Un threatened to fire four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles into the waters around Guam, saying that Donald Trump was "bereft of reason." Aaron, Scott and Jeffrey survey the smoldering wreckage that was Jeffrey's marriage-saving vacation in wine country and try to find a h...
Iranian Space Launch and the JCPOA
July 31, 2017 21:32 - 31 minutes - 28.6 MBAmidst all the hoopla surrounding North Korea's ICBM, Iran launched a Simorgh, a rocket designed to put a satellite into space. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the Iran's space launch program, how it relates to the nuclear program. And, of course, the Dudes from the SHIG. Links of Note: Detailed video of the Simorgh and the NTI 3D Models of both the Simorgh and the Safir. Jonathan McDowell and his excellent Launch Vehicle Database. The maligned op-ed in the WSJ.
Hot Launch Hot Take
July 28, 2017 19:49 - 21 minutes - 20 MBThe DPRK just launched a looooong range missile. According to podfriend Ankit Panda, it went farther, higher, and farther than the July 4th Hwasong-14 launch (with a data refresher here, courtesy of noted seersucker suit aficionado Shea Cotton) Jeffrey and Aaron knock out a snap episode with very first reactions to a launch that literally happened while we were working on an Iranian pod.
Banning the Bomb III: Subsection B
July 28, 2017 13:34 - 34 minutes - 31.7 MBThe second half of yesterday's Banning the Bomb III. Make sure to listen to that one first. 122 countries just adopted the Treaty banning nuclear weapons, in the same week that North Korea tested an ICBM. Andrea, Gaukhar, and Beatrice Fihn from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons continue their discussion of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty) and talk about what made the cut for the final treaty, debate some of the...
Banning the Bomb III: Subsection A
July 27, 2017 15:08 - 36 minutes - 33.8 MB122 countries just adopted a treaty banning nuclear weapons, in the same week that North Korea tested an ICBM. Andrea, Gaukhar, and Beatrice Fihn from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons talk about what made the cut for the final treaty, debate some of the implications, and evaluate whether diplomats are most like a solid, a liquid, or a gas. Links and Documents of Note: Negotiating mandate: http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-f...
North Korea's New Missiles
July 18, 2017 19:37 - 1 hour - 58.8 MBNo one has better sources in the U.S. government when it comes to North Korea's missile program than the Diplomat's Ankit Panda. He joins Jeffrey and Scott to discuss the Hwasong-12, Hwasong-14, a very strange North Korean concert, and Ankit shares some never-before-released data on the Hwasong-12 and some KN designations. This podcast is a joint release with The Diplomat's Asia Geopolitics Podcast. New KN-17/Hwasong-12 Data: Now we know the KN-17 has been tested at least 4 tim...
North Korea's ICBM: Hwasong-14
July 13, 2017 21:54 - 40 minutes - 36.9 MBTest a missile, get a pod. North Korea tested a missile. The big one. An ICBM. To discuss recent events, Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott talk about the KN-20/Hwasong-14, how we got here, and what we know about the missile. Links of Note: The pod about the Hwasong-12, the immediate precursor to the Hwasong-14, including discussion of the DPRK's engine developments. Ankit Panda's article that first mentions the KN-20 designation and that the U.S. observed the missile for around 70 minutes pr...
The Hyunmoo-2C: South Korea's 800km Missile
June 30, 2017 15:34 - 27 minutes - 25 MBSouth Korea tested the 800km Hyunmoo-2C ballistic missile ... from a barge! New President Moon Jae-in was in attendance, resulting in some geolocation goodies. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about using open source information to track the interesting, but under-studied, South Korean missile program. Links of Note: A series of various twitter threads from Jeffrey with Schmerler. Jeffrey wrote a blogpost about the Anheung Proving Ground with annotated Planet imagery. The discussed Cana...
LORA at Sea
June 29, 2017 11:00 - 28 minutes - 25.8 MBNorm enforcement: You test a missile, you get a pod. You test a missile in a shipping container, you get a pod and a reference to Russian techno music. In today’s episode, Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott talk Israel’s LORA, the spread of small solid fueled missiles, and improved guidance. Links of Note: Video/advertisement of the event. Israel Aerospace Industries announcement of the trial. Raytheon advertisement and fact sheets for the DeepStrike. (Seriously Raytheon folks, send me...
The Zolfaqar at War
June 27, 2017 20:02 - 36 minutes - 33.7 MBIran fired a number of ballistic missiles, including the new solid Zolfaqar missiles, from bases in Kermanshah and Kurdistan against at least two ISIS targets in Mayadin in eastern Syria. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss using open source information to identify the launch points and impact points, and what the launches tell us about Iran's growing missile program. Links of Note: Early analysis of the Zolfaqar by Jane's. If you're interested in the Shahed-129 drone mentioned. Jeff...
The UAE's Phantom Missile Arsenal
June 23, 2017 17:40 - 43 minutes - 39.9 MBThe UAE is a missile power. Who knew? In today's episode, Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the UAE's 1989 purchase of the Scud B (or Hwasong 5) from North Korea, a second purchase of the Scud C in 1999, and the country's well maintained missile base. Links of Note: NIE 5-91C discussing missile proliferation. The 2015 Emirati email leak.
MDA Shoots Down an ICBM Target
June 20, 2017 15:16 - 49 minutes - 45.7 MBThe US conducted a successful test, FTG-15, of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system designed to protect the United States against a ballistic missile launched from North Korea. The Missile Defense Agency takes a victory lap after its first intercept of an ICBM-class target. Scott joins Jeffrey to discuss what the test proves -- and what it does not. Links of Note: Vice Admiral Syring (Director, Missile Defense Agency) made an unclassified written statement linked here. A...
Banning the Bomb: Part 2
June 05, 2017 10:53 - 58 minutes - 53.6 MBA group of countries is negotiating a convention to ban the use and possession of nuclear weapons. The chair has released a draft treaty in advance of the second round of negotiations to be held this month. Andrea Berger and Jeffrey Lewis discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of the draft Convention on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
BORA! BORA! BORA!
May 24, 2017 11:00 - 29 minutes - 26.6 MBTurkey released footage of a test of a short-range ballistic missile, Roketsan's Bora/Khan. You know the Arms Control Wonk rule, test a new missile, get a podcast. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss Turkey's defense industries, armed forces, and cooperation in developing missiles with China.
The Hwasong-12, finally
May 15, 2017 19:31 - 31 minutes - 28.6 MBNorth Korea has finally tested (successfully) a new missile -- and boy it is a doozy. After the April 15 parade, we called this missile the KN-08 Mod Odd and the KN-08 +/-. But North Korea calls it the Hwasong-12 and it contains a surprise: the brand-new "indigenous" engine that North Korea debuted in March. Jeffrey and Scott discuss this new IRBM, its odd firing table and launch configuration, the propaganda of missile testing, and whether or not an ICBM is next.