Arms Control Wonk
197 episodes - English - Latest episode: 10 days ago - ★★★★★ - 400 ratingsThe nuclear weapons, arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation podcast. Companion to the popular Arms Control Wonk blog (www.armscontrolwonk.com). Hosted by Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein.
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Episodes
Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment
April 17, 2024 12:49 - 35 minutes - 32.4 MBAnd you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?" Letting the days go by, politics will hold you down Letting the days go by, heavy water underground Into Fordow again, maybe to Isfahan Once in a lifetime, rea...
Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque
April 10, 2024 18:41 - 40 minutes - 37.1 MBWilliam Alberque joins Jeffrey for a friendly and deep debate about the Russian Navy nuclear documents leaked to FT, covered in our previous episode. This is a fascinating discussion not only on the documents themselves, but what they imply for Russia's view of its own territorial integrity, what it needs to convince its soldiers to go to bat for, and the eternal issues of "self-deterrence". Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times
March 10, 2024 21:44 - 35 minutes - 32.6 MBMax Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have written an excellent piece on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China. Jeffrey and Aaron go through what the documents reveal and debate if they're generally consistant with what is understood about Russian nuclear doctrine or, as FT states, indicate that the threshold is lower than previous understood. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpod...
Jeffrey Visits the Test Site
February 19, 2024 15:18 - 43 minutes - 40.3 MBRoad trip to Vegas. As part of an NGO transparency visit, NNSA opened up the Nevada Test Site to a group of international nuclear weapons experts, including one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Jeffrey goes through what he saw: P Tunnel, The BEEF, and the crown jewel, U1a. This was an NNSA exercise in transparency, aimed at showing the community and world that the U.S. stockpile stewardship and treaty verification exercises are separate from nuclear explosive tests. It was also, and we cannot underlin...
Russia Buys North Korean Missiles
January 17, 2024 01:25 - 25 minutes - 23.6 MBShoigu went shopping. Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what this means for global ballistic missile proliferation, possible South Korean responses, and the continued rise of North Korea as a ballistic missile exporter. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
North Korea's New Satellite
November 28, 2023 01:40 - 38 minutes - 35.2 MBNorth Korea finally got a reconnaissance satellite into orbit, after several failed prior attempts! While it is a little rough around the edges, every program has to start somewhere. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the implications of the DPRK's reconnaissance satellite, the relationship of the DPRK missile and space programs, and the importance of high fashion for the spacelaunching elites. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The Reason We're all Still Here
October 14, 2023 21:07 - 8 minutes - 8.06 MBTake a listen to the latest season of Jeffrey Lewis's podcast, The Reason We're All Still Here Far too often, governments behave like toddlers. They’re fickle. They don’t like to share. And good luck getting them to pay attention to any problem that isn’t directly in front of them. They like to push each other to the brink, and often do. But when they don’t, it’s usually because other people enter the proverbial room. Private citizens who step up and play peacemaker when their governments ...
Shenanigans in Novaya Zemlya
October 11, 2023 23:41 - 32 minutes - 29.9 MBLooks like everyone is preparing for a party. Between Russia's potential un-signing of a nuclear test treaty, threats to test "if the United States does," and refurbishments at Novaya Zemlya, things aren't looking great for the longevity of nuclear test ban norms. China and the U.S. have been modernizing too, though the U.S. has offered to allow monitors on-site to verify U.S. lack of testing. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down to talk about the recent developments in Russia, and the likel...
Kim Jong Un's Excellent Adventure
August 17, 2023 19:04 - 56 minutes - 52.1 MBSam Lair joins the podcast to talk about Kim Jong Un's recent whirlwind tour of the North Korean Defense Industrial Base with Jeffrey and Scott. If you're into missiles, geolocation, and machine tools (and, if you listen to this podcast, you probably are), you're going to want to tune in. Sam and Jeffrey have been mapping out the DPRK DIB, including plant managers, machine tool lineages, production lines, and evolutions over time. Kim's visit to these plants, and the accompanying KCNA im...
Oppenheimer
August 07, 2023 23:27 - 54 minutes - 49.6 MBJeffrey is joined by the illustrious Kelsey Atherton to discuss Christopher Nolan's film Oppenheimer, as well as the history and legacy of the titular man himself. Kelsey and Jeffrey dive into the choice to focus on Oppenheimer's own security legacy and bypass the direct and indirect horrors affected upon the Congolese miners, New Mexicans, and Japanese civilians, as well as the intentional rendering of power politics and personal animus within the U.S. security apparatus. Kelsey penned a...
Hiroshima 2023
August 05, 2023 14:11 - 34 minutes - 31.2 MBJeffrey is back from Hiroshima, where he participated in a Track 2 nuclear dialogue. The outlook for near-term arms control is still grim. Jeffrey and Aaron unpack the G7 statements on disarmament that the Japanese representatives wanted to re-affirm, the tacit condemnation of Russian and Chinese contained within, and the global theater around narrative control of arms control. Russian, US, and third party interpretations of CTBT and disarmament discussions create significant friction, ...
What the F*** Do They Think the Russians are Going to Shoot at Them?!
July 18, 2023 22:36 - 26 minutes - 23.9 MBGermany has a gap that needs to be filled in the face of Russian threats. But this time it isn't Fulda, it is....the exoatmospheric layer of ballistic missile defenses? Jeffrey and Aaron try to understand Germany's decision to buy the very fancy Israeli/American Arrow-3 exoatmospheric BMD system, in absense of a specific Russian missile system and despite two Aegis Ashore sites coming online in Europe. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Failure to Launch
July 06, 2023 21:19 - 25 minutes - 23.5 MBJeffrey is back from Japan and North Korea's satellite-turned-submarine is back from the bottom of the ocean! North Korea's failed Chollima-1 space launcher and its payload, the Malligyong-1, failed to reach space on May 30. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the Japanese response to the launch, the North Korean reponse to the failure, and whether or not people are tacitly starting to accept North Korean space capabilities. Are the DPRK's space capabilities overlapping with their missile capab...
Shangri-la Dialogue with Ankit Panda
June 12, 2023 20:58 - 33 minutes - 31 MBAnkit Panda joins Jeffrey by the every so fancy pool at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where they talk about competing speeches and messaging, the views on US-China competition from Southeast Asia, and about how Jeffrey didn't make any new friends in the PLA this year. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The CAT I is Out of the Bag
May 21, 2023 19:02 - 38 minutes - 34.9 MBUkraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that's raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and the whole host of problems associated with figuring out what a destabilizing cruise missile really looks like. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The Washington Declaration
May 06, 2023 14:46 - 39 minutes - 36.2 MBPresident Yoon of South Korea recently visited the United States to talk nukes and Don McLean with President Biden. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through what the Declaration actually covers, how much was material and how much was fluff, and the moonwalking capabilities of the D5 SLBM. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18
April 15, 2023 19:26 - 30 minutes - 27.9 MBFINALLY. After almost a decade of hinting and teasing and parading fake empty canisters, North Korea has debuted its long-awated solid propellant ICBM. And the team have some questions about where the construction and testing sites were... Jeffrey, Scott, and Dave descend upon the CNS DC offices for a rare in-person podcast to commemorate the event we've been waiting on for years. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom
March 21, 2023 20:25 - 31 minutes - 29.2 MBThe IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we're handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold together the nuclear situation with Iran. JCPOA-holdover cameras, discontinuity in footage, and a bunch of suddenly friendliness from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all make for a tense and confusing situation. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The Actual Demise of New START
March 09, 2023 00:49 - 40 minutes - 37.4 MBNew START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time to rename the pod Arms Race Wonk, because the next few years are going to be scary. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the Era Without (Bilateral) Arms Control, the immanent two-front deterrence challenge, and how being scared as **** is the only way we know deterrence is working. Support ...
Another North Korean Missile Parade
February 10, 2023 22:43 - 35 minutes - 32.4 MBJeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we're a little tired of the parades. But we're glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch. North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that were clearly meant to look like solid-propellent ICBMs. We've been down this road before, they've played with our hearts. But now we're in the era where a solid ICBM is very possible, and a solid ICBM test is expected. The team talks about what got parade...
One of Them is Wrong About That
January 16, 2023 20:13 - 35 minutes - 32.7 MBBoth plan on going first, but... President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to respond to North Korea's nuclear posture, South Korea is realistically pursuing capabilities for rapid, precision strikes. North Korea feels similarly. As Jeffrey always says: both plan on going first in a conflict, but one of them is going to be ...
Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances
December 21, 2022 01:14 - 37 minutes - 34 MBTyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data. In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW pod, Tyler and Mike join Jeffrey to talk about their wild new open-source intelligence tool, how it works, and what it means for missile and rocket observation. A visualization of their work can be seen here: https://twitter....
How Sting Likes to Test
December 03, 2022 16:52 - 27 minutes - 24.8 MBJeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un's Bring Your Daughter to Work Day, and the incredible Missile Launch Detection tool that @tylerni7 and @michaelnute have spearheaded in the ACW Slack channel. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
New New START or New Finish?
November 13, 2022 13:53 - 29 minutes - 27 MBThe Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart heavily managed talks in an era of COVID restrictions? How do you do on-site inspections during a conventional conflict? Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the rough state of international nuclear arms control, the increasingly-complex balance of nucle...
The Lake-Bed Missile
November 10, 2022 01:00 - 25 minutes - 23.3 MBLaunch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Aaron and Jeffrey talk about North Korea's record-setting number of missile launches and what the North Korean launch authorities look like. A new(?) ICBM, a new Hwasong-12 variant, the bizarre reservo...
Another Crazy Train
October 22, 2022 21:54 - 26 minutes - 24.5 MBThe Russian invasion of Ukraine is giving people brain worms. Multiple terrible reports, citing oSiNt aNaLyStS, have recently been released and grossly overexaggerated the risk of nuclear weapons use around Ukraine. These reports, particularly about the "nuclear weapons convoy headed towards Ukraine," don't help anyone and just add noise to a chaotic narrative. Jeffrey and Aaron take a knife to bad analysis, and muse on what deterrence actually means to the people living under it. ...
The Janky Triad
October 18, 2022 00:25 - 20 minutes - 18.4 MBDoes North Korea have a triad? Perhaps a boostrapped, janky triad? How mature is their arsenal at this point? North Korea lobbed a Hwasong-12 over Japan after a week of smaller missile tests, and sparked a testy exchange of missile tests and aircraft scramblings. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about missile overflights, what it means to begrudgingly accept a new nuclear power, and what North Korean nuclear strategy looks like in 2022. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Stealing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
August 29, 2022 23:24 - 26 minutes - 24 MBWhat the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to....steal a power plant? Links of Note: Russia Tries to Steal a Nuclear Power Plant, Cheryl Rofer Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Rules for Testing a Nuke
August 29, 2022 23:24 - 31 minutes - 28.6 MBWhy isn't North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test? Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House Rule... The team talks about the impact of Michael Krepon on the field and on us personally. He will be greatly missed, and his importance and mentorship in the field of arms control cannot be understated. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The Last Days of the JCPOA
July 24, 2022 16:14 - 32 minutes - 29.5 MBAs the President visited various states in the Middle East, Jeffrey and Aaron sat down to eulogize the JCPOA renegotiation attempts as they slowly slide farther off the rails. Iran's programs continue and it looks like the U.S. is preparing to continue into the sanctions and containment realm, as Israel continues its seemingly ineffective hardware sabotage campaign. The North Korea-ification of Iran-US relations continues, unabated. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The Wizards of Armageddon
July 01, 2022 00:00 - 42 minutes - 38.6 MBJeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Waiting for the Boom
June 04, 2022 15:34 - 23 minutes - 21.3 MBAfter a brief hiatus due to Jeffrey's house catching on a lil' bit of fire, the Arms Control Wonk team is back to take a look at North Korea's triple missile launch and looming possible nuclear test. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the North Korean nuclear testing schedule, the expectations of precision that open source intelligence has generated, and what it means when half of the attendees at a nuclear conference all simultaneously leave... Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
American ASAT Controls
May 02, 2022 23:54 - 30 minutes - 28.1 MBThe U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of the institutional hurdles the U.S. must overcome for a long-lasting commitment to space-based arms control. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century
April 16, 2022 13:06 - 34 minutes - 31.9 MBGerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century. The group sits down to talk through China's DF-21D and DF-26 missiles. Do they work? What do they do? What can they actually accomplish? How do navies adapt to the new threat environment? The group talks through the realities and the puffed up hype around these systems, and how they actually impact strategy ...
Test Three Missiles...
March 24, 2022 11:53 - 37 minutes - 34.1 MB...get a pod. North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests. Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good OSINT in the form of Jeffrey's talented class of missile modelers. Jeffrey also predicts a Hwasong-17 test is coming, and as this episode is be...
The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence
March 15, 2022 00:02 - 45 minutes - 41.5 MBShould we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics. Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence, wherein an individual actor's rationality can be gauged by the company they keep. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Deterrence in Ukraine
February 24, 2022 23:55 - 30 minutes - 28.3 MBRussia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could've deterred Russia "if it had never given up nuclear weapons." But they never "had" nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the Cold War, and the "return" of those weapons to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Nuclear Security for Who?
February 15, 2022 23:30 - 24 minutes - 22.1 MBJasmine Owens, Lead Organizer and Policy Coordinator at the Physicians for Social Responsibility, joins Jeffrey to discuss social justice and nuclear weapons. Jasmine and Jeffrey attack the tough issues facing culture within the nuclear security field, embedded bias, and the disproportionate impact these weapons have on minority and oppressed communities. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco
February 08, 2022 22:59 - 28 minutes - 25.9 MBDr. Michal Onderco, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam, joins Jeffrey to talk about his new book, Networked Nonproliferation: Making the NPT Permanent. Dr. Onderco and Jeffrey talk about the history of the NPT extension, interpersonal relationships in diplomacy, and the methods and study of diplomacy in nuclear treaty-making. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
Gimme Shelter
January 25, 2022 01:25 - 23 minutes - 21.5 MBAfter North Korea tested its new MaRV twice, a bunch of weird news stories suddenly started breaking about U.S. responses. Flights were grounded in parts of the West Coast, there was a shelter in place order up at the missile defense site in Alaska, and it seemed like someone may have mistook the North Korean test for an ICBM launch. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the U.S. early warning and ballistic missile defense system, pressures of decisionmaking, and what happens when missile warnings are...
North Korea's MaRV
January 08, 2022 19:05 - 25 minutes - 23.4 MBNorth Korea tested what appears to be a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), which could support a tactical nuclear mission and subvert ballistic missile defenses. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the difference between a MaRV and a hypersonic glide vehicle, discuss the development of the DPRK missile industry, and walk through North Korea's tactical nuclear ambitions. Other Episodes of Interest: Glide or Die: When the DPRK tested what appears to be a hypersonic glide vehicle Iranian...
North Korea's Small SLBM
October 27, 2021 21:59 - 29 minutes - 26.9 MBNorth Korea seems to be taking its new, small, solid propellant missiles to the sea, after taking them to the show. Perennial friend of the pod and aficionado of all things submarine Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute of Strategic Studies returns to talk to Jeffrey about what it is that the DPRK tested this time, whether it is the same missile that the DPRK showed off at its recent military expo, and what their submarine program is looking like in 2021. Previous Episodes with...
A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System with a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle??
October 19, 2021 00:42 - 49 minutes - 45.3 MBThis is a complicated one. According to Demetri Sevastopulo at the Financial Times, China tested something that sounds a whole lot like FOBS with an HGV. Something that orbited the globe and dropped a hypersonic glide vehicle against a target. Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott try to figure out what actually was tested (HGV-FOBS? An intercontinental glider? A super-lofted ballistic missile??), talk about what it means to be a "fractional orbital bombardment system" versus a regular ballistic miss...
Glide or Die
October 07, 2021 23:53 - 32 minutes - 29.9 MBGlide or die, baby. The North Koreans, on a real cavalcade of missile debuts reminiscent of 2017, have tested what they claim to be a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Which means they are just checking off their list of goals, leaving a nuclear powered submarine, a MIRV, and a solid propellant ICBM as the main untested-but-announced capabilities.... While it isn't 100% clear that they actually tested an HGV, the team dissects what it might have been, if a DPRK HGV is realistic, and why H...
All Aboard the Missile Train
September 18, 2021 17:18 - 38 minutes - 35.6 MBPut another pot of coffee on because it is launch week again. North Korean launched two missiles off of the back of a train this week, right as the president of South Korea watched their own tests of a submarine launched ballistic missile, stealthy air launched cruise missile, ballistic missile test, supersonic anti ship cruise missile test, large diameter solid motor test, and good lord it is a hard week to keep up. Oh right and North Korea is expanding its uranium enrichment facilities. ...
Not Lackin' LACMs
September 15, 2021 20:53 - 33 minutes - 30.6 MBThe DPRK tested a cruise missile, but this time it was a big one. Like "INF Treaty" big, if that term still meant anything. The DPRK announced that it launched a 1500 km range cruise missile, after months of hints that a strategic nuclear-capable cruise missile was in the works. While it technically does not fall under the United Nations Security Council resolutions sanctioning DPRK ballistic missile and space tests, it is a huge concern, especially since it is probably meant to carry a n...
Boiling Fish at Yongbyon
September 09, 2021 01:06 - 32 minutes - 30 MBLooks like Yongbyon is running a little hot. The IAEA has announced that it believes the DPRK is conducting a plutonium reprocessing campaign at Yongbyon. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why the DPRK would want to do this. What could the mystery be? Why would the DPRK reprocess plutonium? For nukes. It's for nukes. Basically like the DPRK has been saying. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
It's Always Cloudy in Novaya Zemlya
September 03, 2021 14:48 - 25 minutes - 23.4 MBJeffrey and his team fear no cloud. Working with Capella Space to acquire cloud-piercing synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, the MIIS team has been monitoring eternally-cloudy Novaya Zemlya, Russia, for evidence of Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile tests. Evidence pointed to the Burevestnik test site being revived after the previous failures, and the team started utilizing radar returns to obviate the satellite-imagery-frustrating weather that plagues Russia's northern nuclear te...
Wasted Opportunities with the JCPOA
August 27, 2021 13:45 - 26 minutes - 24.3 MBBad news abounds for Iranian and US returns to JCPOA compliance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the frustration around breakout time requirements, the timidity of the Biden administration, and the shortfalls of the wait-and-see approach. Links of Note: The Economist article on OSINT, including Arms Control Wonk and the Slack channel, which is filled with only the most brilliant and beautiful of people, whom all listeners should aspire to emulate: https://www.economist.com/brie...
A SECOND SILO FIELD
August 13, 2021 21:27 - 41 minutes - 37.8 MBMatt Korda and Hans Kristensen with the Federation of American Scientists have tracked down what appears to be a second field of missile silos near Hami, Xinjiang. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott gather up to discuss the rapidly increasing number of missile silos, what this means for the shell game theory, how many missiles and warheads could be in the PLARF's ICBM arsenal, and how China strategically responds to U.S. ballistic missile defenses. Links of Note: Our first episode on the fir...