Africa Markets Podcast
382 episodes - English - Latest episode: almost 2 years ago -RMB's research offering spans across the fixed income, currency and credit markets to offer strategic insight to our clients across multiple sectors and markets.
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Episodes
AMI 17 November 2020 - Nigeria inflation, Ibrahim Index and currencies.
November 17, 2020 04:58 - 2 minutes - 2.76 MBNigeria: Inflation in Nigeria accelerated to 14.2%y/y in October from 13.7%y/y in September mainly on the back of rising food prices. We continue to expect supply side pressures to dictate movements of prices within the composite basket. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 16 November 2020 - Ethiopia’s tension, Zambia default discussions and the kwacha.
November 16, 2020 06:41 - 2 minutes - 2.44 MBEthiopia: The economy that was slated to be one of the fastest growing in Africa over the next few years, is facing significant social and political risks since the start of violent actions between military forces and members of the Tigray People’s liberation front (TPLF). See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 13 November 2020 - Namibia inflation, Egypt rates decision and oil prices.
November 13, 2020 05:19 - 2 minutes - 2.15 MBNamibia: Inflation printed at 2.3% y/y at the end of October from 2.4% a month earlier. Month on month inflation was also lower at 0.1% from 0.3% over the same time frame. the benign inflation environment suggests that current cutting cycle may be at its end given the latest MPC statement that offered no further cuts in October. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 12 November 2020 -Kenya mobile payments, Cote d’Ivoire politics and Zambia bonds.
November 12, 2020 05:42 - 2 minutes - 2.31 MBKenya: in the first 9-months of 2020, Kenya’s value of mobile money transactions was KES3.6trn representing a 9.8% jump from a year ago. This year’s transactions continue to outpace historical levels on account of the government encouraging its citizens to use digital payment solutions instead of cash in a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 11 November 2020 - Botswana’s support fund and gold prices
November 11, 2020 04:36 - 2 minutes - 2.35 MBBotswana: The government of Botswana has set up an Industry Support Fund to the tune of P1.3bn in a bid to support local business operations given the effects of covid-19. Funds under this scheme will be administered through existing structures, which include: See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 10 November 2020 - Mozambique inflation and commodities
November 10, 2020 05:28 - 2 minutes - 2.27 MBMozambique: Inflation in Mozambique ticked up slightly to 3.2%at the end of October, compared to September’s figure of 2.98%y/y. While its to soon to assess whether this is a point of inflection for the inflation profile, we note with concern increases in the divisions of food inflation and alcoholic beverages (both up 8.10% y/y and 5.63% y/y respectively). See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 09 November 2020 - Cote d’Ivoire, currencies and copper.
November 09, 2020 05:13 - 2 minutes - 2.06 MBCote d’Ivoire: The situation in the country remains tense with the country’s state prosecutor accusing opposition leaders of terrorism and murder over their calls for a civil disobedience campaign and transitional government, according to a Bloomberg report. Since the elections that led to the re-election of President Ouattara, the political situation in Cote d’Ivoire remains edgy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 06 November 2020 - Covid-19 and Gold
November 06, 2020 05:21 - 2 minutes - 2.02 MBCovid-19: We note that Kenya has reintroduced certain measures to curb the spread of the virus. Several countries globally must contend with the effects of a second wave of covid-19 infections. In Kenya, we do not expect that these measures will have significant impact on growth in final quarter of the year given that they are mainly targeted at reducing sizes of gatherings and introduction of curfew. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 05 November 2020 - PMI numbers and hard currency bonds.
November 05, 2020 05:37 - 2 minutes - 1.96 MBPMI: As more Africa PMI numbers come in, an economic recovery seems entrenched. The average reading has increased to 52.3 the highest level since June 2018 with Kenya leading the charge. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 04 November 2020 - PMI numbers and Currencies.
November 04, 2020 07:25 - 2 minutes - 2.18 MBPMI: In Mozambique, PMI numbers are showing continued improvement edging to 48.1 up from 46.2 in September. Meanwhile Egypt PMI increased to 51.4 up from 50.4 in September. Key to these results are the differences between these two markets. While sentiment is improving across both markets, See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 03 November 2020 -Mozambique budget support, Policy continuity and Gold prices.
November 03, 2020 06:52 - 3 minutes - 2.81 MBMozambique: While parliament is reviewing the draft budgetary plan for 2021, which highlighted that expenditure will broadly remain aligned with that 0f 2020, our budget balance deficit forecast of -10.0% of GDP in 2021 seems like the expected scenario. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 02 November 2020 - Cote d’Ivoire elections and oil prices.
November 02, 2020 05:33 - 1 minute - 1.79 MBCote d’Ivoire: President Ouattara took an early lead on Sunday as results from 26 out of 108 districts show that the incumbent is in the lead. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 30 October 2020 - Zambia inflation and Africa Eurobonds.
October 30, 2020 05:16 - 2 minutes - 2.15 MBZambia: Inflation figures remain well above the target band, coming in at 16%y/y in October relative to 15.7%y/y a month before. Food and Transport inflation were the biggest drivers or price pressures coming in at 14.6%y/y and 39.6%y/y respectively. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 29 October 2020 - Zambia debt relief and Nigeria bonds.
October 29, 2020 05:21 - 1 minute - 1.79 MBZambia: it what can be seen as a positive move; the Zambian authorities yesterday noted that they had managed to secure some debt service relief from the China Development Bank. While the details of the relief are light with respect to the size of the haircut or debt maturity extension, any changes to their external obligations are welcome. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 28 October 2020 - Tanzania’s election and the Kenyan shilling.
October 28, 2020 05:35 - 1 minute - 1.61 MBTanzania: Its election day in Tanzania as the East African nation heads to the polls to hold its presidential and parliamentary elections. President John Magufuli will be seeking another term with his main challengers being Tundu Lissu and Bernard Membe. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 27 October 2020 - Ethiopia dam talks, Kenya remittances and currencies.
October 27, 2020 06:03 - 2 minutes - 2.34 MBKenya: Remittances were up 24.1% y/y at the end of September supported mainly by inflows from the USA. The third quarter has recorded 24.2%q/q compared to the 2.8% q/q recorded at the end of third quarter last year. The flow of funds suggest that the third quarter was generally a better period globally compared to the earlier part of the year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 26 October 2020 - Mozambique’s credit ratings and Brent crude prices.
October 26, 2020 05:44 - 2 minutes - 2.04 MBMozambique: S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings and its 'B-/B' local currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Mozambique. The outlook has been affirmed as stable as growth prospects still remain positive in the medium term despite inadequacies in the area of institutional strength. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 23 October 2020 -Zambia IMF resident representative appointment and copper prices.
October 23, 2020 04:49 - 1 minute - 1.71 MBZambia: In what can be seen as a move to improve the relationship between the IMF and Zambia, the fund has named a new resident representative. The appointment of Preya Sharma comes at a pivotal time for Zambia as they aim to reprofile their external debt. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 22 October 2020 - Zambia rating, Mozambique interest rate decision and Nigeria hard currency bonds.
October 22, 2020 05:33 - 2 minutes - 2.21 MBZambia: Yesterday, S&P has lowered Zambia’s rating to Selective default (SD) from CCC, a rating assigned when the agency believes the entity has selectively defaulted on some obligations which in this case are eurobonds. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 21 October 2020 -Namibia mid-year budget, Zambia’s respite and oil.
October 21, 2020 07:04 - 2 minutes - 2.4 MBNamibia: The Minister of Finance’s (MoF) Mid-Year Budget Review (MYBR) statement suggests half-way through the current fiscal year, revenue collection is 3% higher than historical collection rate - with 51% of targeted revenue already collected. Government expects revenue to come in at N$55.2bn (7.4% higher than what was previously estimated in his maiden budget) on account of better than expected personal income tax and company tax. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 20 October 2020 - Mozambique debt and Kwacha weakness
October 20, 2020 06:52 - 2 minutes - 1.97 MBMozambique: Mozambique’s government has made announcement on its engagement with some of its debt holders in view or rising regional fiscal risk across various sub-Saharan markets. The Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane has confirmed that the government has made an official request for a moratorium on repayments of Mozambican debt to China. The amount of the debt is estimated at US$1.3 billion according to news reports. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 19 October 2020 -Namibia inflation and palladium prices.
October 19, 2020 06:57 - 2 minutes - 2.22 MBNamibia: Inflation printed 2.4%y/y at the end of September, placing downside risks on our current baseline 2020 forecast. The decline in the supply-side factors, which we categorize as housing & utility costs, education and health, has meant that average price growth has been mute. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 16 October 2020 - Kenya GDP and African financial markets.
October 16, 2020 06:36 - 1 minute - 1.75 MBKenya: 2Q20 GDP growth showed that the economy contracted by 5.7% compared to growth of 4.9% in 1Q20, implying a 1H20 growth figure of -0.4%. The contraction was to be expected given the partial lockdown of the country towards the end of the first quarter. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 15 October 2020 - Mozambique terrorist insurgency, Ghana inflation and African credits.
October 15, 2020 04:57 - 2 minutes - 2.49 MBMozambique: In a bid to end the insurgency by rebels with links to the Islamic State, the EU has agreed to assist in quelling the wave of attacks. The attacks date back to 2017 but its only this year that the violence has intensified which has led to 300,000 people fleeing the violence, according to the UN World Food Programme. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 14 October 2020 -Zambia deadlines, Ghana funding and gold.
October 14, 2020 06:56 - 2 minutes - 2.8 MBZambia: The deadline approaches for the consent solicitation requested by the Minister of finance on September 22nd. According to the Minister of finance’s proposal, the deadline for the consent solicitation is slated for the 16th of October implying that by the 20th of October, the market will be informed of the decision taken by the Eurobond holders. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 13 October 2020 - Mozambique fund, DSSI and currencies.
October 13, 2020 07:03 - 2 minutes - 2.41 MBMozambique: Plans are afoot in Mozambique in setting-up a sovereign wealth fund that will allow the economy to benefit from earnings from the gas sector. According to a report from Bloomberg, the central bank laid out plans for a US$96bn fund that will likely be accumulated across the life of the various projects. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 12 October 2020Namibia’s current account and commodity prices.
October 12, 2020 06:25 - 2 minutes - 2.12 MBNamibia: Bank of Namibia’s (BoN) quarterly bulletin shows that the current account is expected to enter positive territory this year given the sharp declines imports and as SACU receipts increase. According to BoN, the second quarter figures registered a surplus of N$5.1bn supported by SACU inflows that offset merchandise trade deficit. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 9 October 2020 - Botswana rate decision, Nigeria budget and Africa hard currency bonds
October 09, 2020 05:50 - 3 minutes - 3.17 MBBotswana: Yesterday the Bank of Botswana (BoB) cut rates in line with our expectations by 50bp to 3.75% - citing that the local economy is projected to operate below capacity in both the short and medium term which will translate to minimal inflationary pressures. Due to the economic impact of Covid-19, Botswana’s 2Q20 GDP growth printed at a dreary -24.0% y/y compared to 3.0% y/y at the same time last year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 8 October 2020 - Economic growth and the Ghanaian cedi.
October 08, 2020 05:33 - 2 minutes - 2.15 MBEconomic growth: As activity improves globally, the World Bank now forecasts economic growth for the continent rebounding to 2.1% in 2021 from a contraction of 3.3% in 2020. The rebound in growth is premised on the assumption that new coronavirus cases continues to slow, and no new lockdowns are introduced. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 07 October 2020 - Mozambique and Nigeria PMI and the Kenyan shilling
October 07, 2020 06:53 - 2 minutes - 2.54 MBMozambique: At the end of September, PMI data for Mozambique showed a slight improvement, with the index moving from 46.1 to 46.6 on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, however, the index is down 8.8%, suggesting that despite the gains experienced since the height of the lockdown restrictions, business confidence is still weak. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 06 October 2020 - PMI releases and oil prices
October 06, 2020 06:28 - 3 minutes - 2.91 MBPMI: PMI data for September has revealed that business climate conditions, across most African countries, has improved by the end of the third quarter. Figure 1 shows the annual growth recovery of PMI from a year ago. We summarize the results below. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 05 October 2020 - Mozambique’s economic survey, foreign reserves and the kwacha.
October 05, 2020 05:56 - 2 minutes - 2.15 MBMozambique: Mozambique’s Economic Climate Indicator (ICE) registered a slight recovery in August according to the National Statistics Institute (INE) latest report. The rise of the ICE occurred in the same month that the Mozambican government began to ease the restrictions associated with curbing the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.