Africa Markets Podcast
382 episodes - English - Latest episode: almost 2 years ago -RMB's research offering spans across the fixed income, currency and credit markets to offer strategic insight to our clients across multiple sectors and markets.
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Episodes
AMI 23 July 2021: Cote d’Ivoire economy and Zambia kwacha
July 23, 2021 07:41 - 2 minutes - 1.92 MBCote d’Ivoire: the IMF’s conclusion of its Article IV Consultation saw the fund indicating that the economy will grow by 6% and 6.5% in 2021 and 2022. This is broadly in line with our forecast of 5.8% and 6.2% over the same period. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 22 July 2021: IMF review of Ghana’s economy, Zimbabwe civil servants’ salaries and Africa local bonds
July 22, 2021 05:28 - 2 minutes - 2.61 MBGhana: the IMF concluded its 2021 Article IV Consultation review which they offered a balanced assesment of the risks facing the economy. The fund was complimentary of the covid-19 response which limited the impact of the pandemic on the economy. It also projects that the economy will grow by 4.7% in 2021 and 6.2% in 2022... See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 21 July 2021: Mozambique interest rates and Commodity prices
July 21, 2021 07:27 - 1 minute - 1.82 MBMozambique: We expect the central bank to keep interest rates flat. Since their last MPC meeting, inflation has remained above 5.0% - a rate we expected given the rising regional food prices, higher oil prices and weaker currency... See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 20 July 2021: Ethiopia’s dam and Gold prices
July 20, 2021 07:10 - 1 minute - 1.34 MBEthiopia: Authorities have stated that the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is filled. These recent developments will be key in supporting hydro-generation efforts in the next few months... See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 19 July 2021: Nigeria’s red alert and Brent crude
July 19, 2021 08:03 - 1 minute - 1.58 MBThe Nigerian authorities have placed six states under red alert given the rise of covid-19 cases. The country continues to contend with the effects of the pandemic, with the impact of the delta variant being the latest cause of concern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 16 July 2021: Namibia CPI and the Zambian kwacha
July 16, 2021 07:13 - 1 minute - 1.57 MBNamibia: Annual inflation in June rose to 4.1%, marginally up from 3.8% in May. Despite the low growth environment, inflation pushed up on account of food and transport costs, as fuel and food prices have increased globally. We estimate that inflation will average 4% in 2021. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 15 July 2021: Zambia tax collections and Ghana local bonds
July 15, 2021 07:45 - 2 minutes - 1.93 MBZambia: In the first six months of the year, the revenue authority collected ZMW45bn, representing a 34% increase relative to the target. High copper prices aided in this regard as the red metal has surged by 23% over the same period. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 14 July 2021: Ghana mid-year budget and African credits
July 14, 2021 05:48 - 1 minute - 1.72 MBGhana: The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that the mid-year budget review will be presented on 29 July. The main focus here will be on how well revenue numbers have picked up coming out of the pandemic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 13 July 2021: Angola export revenue, Kenya current account and risk assets
July 13, 2021 07:03 - 2 minutes - 2.23 MBAngola: With oil prices on a tear in recent months, oil revenues continue to soar. The latest reading from the ministry of finance indicates that they exported 33.4m barrels of oil in June slightly less than the 35m barrels exported in May. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 12 July 2021: Mozambique inflation and the week ahead
July 12, 2021 04:58 - 2 minutes - 2.08 MBMozambique: Annual inflation in June rose slightly to 5.52% from 5.49% a month before with the monthly reading printing at 0.52%. A combination of high food and fuel prices globally has placed upward pressure on local prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 09 July 2021: Egypt’s latest inflation print and Africa currency valuations
July 09, 2021 07:27 - 2 minutes - 2.12 MBEgypt CPI: Annual inflation pushed up mildly to 4.9% in June from 4.8% the month before while monthly inflation slowed to 0.2% from 0.7% over the same period. Inflation will likely remain anchored in the months ahead given the weak consumer backdrop ushered in by the pandemic last year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 08 July 2021: Africa PMIs and the Ghanaian cedi
July 08, 2021 08:30 - 1 minute - 1.51 MBPMIs: On average, readings across Africa remained above the 50-neutral line in June, suggesting improved economic activity. Nigeria’s recent reading of 53.6 is one of the highest in Africa, with its economy supported by higher oil prices... See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 08 July 2021 - Kenya’s growth, Namibia credit appetite and USD/KES.
July 08, 2021 07:15 - 1 minute - 1.68 MBPMIs: On average, readings across Africa remained above the 50-neutral line in June suggesting improved economic activity. Nigeria recent reading of 53.6 is one of the highest in Africa whose economy is being supported by higher oil prices that are set to remain above the US$70/bbl mark for the remainder of this year allowing for better export revenue. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 07 July 2021: Zambia covid cases, Egypt FX reserves
July 07, 2021 07:43 - 1 minute - 1.53 MBZambia: The 7-day moving average of covid cases seems to be trend down currently at 2,153 from the peak of 2,791 two weeks ago. This is good news given that elections, a high contact event, will be taking place in just over a month. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 06 July 2021: KENYA PMI AND BRENT CRUDE
July 06, 2021 07:53 - 1 minute - 1.57 MBPMI: According to respondents of the latest PMI, overal Kenyan economy seems to be improving. While the Index declined to 51.0 in June from 52.5 in May, overal the levels remain above 50 – supportive of an improving economic view See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 05 July 2021: Mozambique PMI data and Foreign reserve levels
July 05, 2021 06:45 - 1 minute - 1.63 MBMozambique: IHS PMI data for Mozambique, which remains significantly better than the same period last year, has printed 52.9 in June. This is a sharp recovery from May where the data came in at 51.2. The pace of economic recovery seems to be in full swing across the country with respondents indicating high orders and high output figures See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 02 July 2021: Nigeria’s latest PMI reading and offshore holdings in Egyptian securities
July 02, 2021 06:43 - 1 minute - 1.67 MBNigeria: The PMI reading for June remained in expansionary territory0, printing at 53.6 from 54.4 in May. This suggests improved economic prospects this year compared to last year when the economy suffered at the hands of the covid-19 pandemic and the resultant low oil prices. We forecast that economic growth will print at 2.5% and 2.8% in 2021 and 2022. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 01 July 2021: Kenya’s latest inflation print and Ghana foreign holdings in domestic bonds
July 01, 2021 06:45 - 2 minutes - 1.96 MBKenya: The annual inflation reading for June printed at a 16-month high of 6.32% compared to the 5.87% recorded in May. The protagonist for this jump in the reading was food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation and fuels. This is in keeping with international trends were prices of food and brent crude oil have surged by 35% and 78% year on year respectively thereby filtering into the consumer basket in Kenya. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 30 June 2021: Kenya funding support and the metical
June 30, 2021 07:50 - 2 minutes - 2 MBKenya: The East Africa economy is expected to receive further support from the World bank, targeted at dealing with the pandemic. World bank has approved US$130mn. The country has gone through a third wave earlier this quarter with cases now averaging 532 daily new cases over the past 7 days (Worldometers data). See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 29 June 2021: Vaccination and Brent crude oil
June 29, 2021 06:40 - 2 minutes - 1.94 MBVaccination: A key theme moving markets globally is the rising covid-19 cases. The largely expected third wave has garnered momentum across the globe specifically given the spread of the delta variant. As cases rise, a key concern has been the delay in the vaccination process across the continent. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 28 June 2021: Zambia trade statistics and the Kwacha movements
June 28, 2021 06:46 - 1 minute - 1.87 MBZambia: The total cumulative trade volumes shot up by 84.7% compared to the same period last year. On a monthly basis, however, we note a decline in the trade surplus by 31.9%m/m, and the decline in export earnings from refined copper by 10.1%m/m. Import demand, lifted slightly bolstered by demand for general raw materials. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 25 June 2021: Zambia inflation, bond auction and GDP print, Namibia 1Q21 GDP reading
June 25, 2021 06:15 - 2 minutes - 2.67 MBZambia: Annual inflation accelerated to 24.6% in June from 23.2% y/y in May – a 19-year high. Food inflation, which printed at 31.2% y/y, continues to be a factor with global food prices increasing by 17% this year and thus having a direct bearing on the CPI basket. The currency weakness continues to feed into inflation with the unit having lost 7% of its value against the greenback this year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 24 June 2021: Cameroon issuance, Kenya and Egypt’s IMF facilities
June 24, 2021 06:05 - 2 minutes - 2.26 MBEgypt: Yesterday, the IMF Executive board announced the completion of the country's US$5.2bn SBA programme loan which paves the way for the sovereign to receive the final tranche of US$1.6bn. The programme which was aimed at ensuring that Egypt meets its balance of payments requirements, aided the economy in weathering the storm. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 23 June 2021: Covid-19 update and Diamonds
June 23, 2021 06:49 - 1 minute - 1.68 MBCovid-19: Countries in southern Africa continue to contend with rising covid-19 cases as daily new cases continue to rise. While a third wave was broadly expected across SSA, the pace of vaccination has started to increase albeit at a slow pace. On average, average vaccination per population has increased to 2.9%, from 1.8% earlier this month. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 22 June 2021: Ghana’s cocoa export earnings and Brent crude
June 22, 2021 06:23 - 1 minute - 1.73 MBGhana: Improved regional rains in west Africa has led to a bumper harvest being recorded in Ghana’s cocoa farms. According to Bank of Ghana figures, Ghana’s cocoa beans export earnings has been on an increase since the poor figures in 2019. Prices have remained generally favourable and are likely to remain constructive for the rest of the year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 21 June 2021: Eco postponed and currencies
June 21, 2021 06:02 - 1 minute - 1.84 MBEco: The Launch of the Eco currency, has been postponed to 2027. The effects of the pandemic has meant that several west African countries were unable to meet and maintain convergence criteria that are necessary for the currency adoption. Statement from the Ecowas suggests that the next few years will allow for the member countries to focus on the necessary reforms needed to meet the requirements amid tackling the effects of the pandemic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 18 June 2021: Egypt MPC decision, Namibia vaccines and Kenya eurobond issuance
June 18, 2021 05:14 - 2 minutes - 2.33 MBEgypt: the central bank decided to keep the policy rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. The committee acknowledged the recent uptick in inflation as something to keep an eye on but it was quick to recognize that base effects were partly to blame. However, local food prices are continuing to surge in line with global trends as demand picks up. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 17 June 2021: Egypt and Botswana expected MPC decisions and Ghana 1Q21 GDP print
June 17, 2021 05:52 - 2 minutes - 2.14 MBEgypt: Similar to the April decision, we expect the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate and the rate of the main operations to be kept at 8.25%, 9.25% and 8.75%, respectively. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 15 June 2021: Botswana’s ERTP boost and Brent crude prices
June 15, 2021 06:33 - 2 minutes - 2.63 MBBotswana: Botswana’s efforts to accelerate key economic reforms received a significant boost following the approval of a US$250m loan by the World Bank on 11 June 2021. The facility, termed the Programmatic Economic Resilience and Green Recovery Development Policy Loan (DPL), will support the implementation of Botswana’s Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan (ERTP) and is designed to strengthen covid-19 pandemic relief while bolstering resilience to future shocks. See omnystudio.com/list...
AMI 14 June 2021: IMF on Cote d’ivoire and the metical
June 14, 2021 06:47 - 1 minute - 1.58 MBCote d’ivoire:The conclusion of the IMF staff Article IV Mission over the past week shows a generally upbeat view on the Ivorian economy with the IMF expecting to grow by about 6%y/y in 2021. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 11 June 2021: Egypt’s latest inflation print, Kenya budget and African eurobonds
June 11, 2021 06:09 - 2 minutes - 2.06 MBEgypt: the annual inflation reading for May printed at 4.8% from 4.1% in April. The change was mainly driven by the food and beverages category which had a month-on-month reading of 1.5%. Global food prices which have increased by 39% year-on-year will continue to pose some upside pressure on inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 10 June 2021: Ghana’s latest inflation print and Egypt’s offshore holdings
June 10, 2021 05:59 - 1 minute - 1.64 MBGhana: Annual inflation for May dropped by 1ppt to 7.5% relative to the month before, putting the headline reading at a multi-year low. Month on month inflation was stable at 0.8% relative to April’s reading of 0.7%. The rise in oil prices internationally, coupled with the Transport Union’s recent 20% increase in transport tariffs, will add to price pressure in subsequent CPI readings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 09 June 2021: Covid-19 data and Brent crude oil prices
June 09, 2021 06:36 - 2 minutes - 1.9 MBCovid-19: There has been a increase in vaccination usage across the continent as more countries start to contend with the reality of a third wave. The increase is a reflection of less vaccine hesitancy as opposed to additional vaccine doses arriving across the continent. A big factor that will impact most economies still remains the lack of vaccine manufacturing across the continent. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 08 June 2021: Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa outlook and the Kwacha
June 08, 2021 06:29 - 1 minute - 1.66 MBCôte d’Ivoire: Cocoa farmers have reported improved rainfall across the country which should boost overall production and exports over the course of this year. The improved rainfall has allayed fears of drought related concerns across most farmers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 07 June 2021 - Senegal on vaccine production and commodities
June 07, 2021 06:44 - 1 minute - 1.51 MBSenegal: As the continent remains on the back foot with respect to receiving sufficient vaccine doses, Senegal is looking to start vaccine manufacturing in 2022. The reliance on vaccine imports across the continent will delay vaccination targets over the next year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 04 June 2021: Ghana transport costs, Egypt covid-19 vaccination efforts and Nigeria FX reserves
June 04, 2021 06:25 - 3 minutes - 2.91 MBGhana: The Ghana Private Roads Transport Union has announced a 13% increase in transport fares across all forms of transport effective tomorrow. The move is in response to the higher input costs by way of higher pump prices which recently went up by 12% as a result of higher price of oil on the international market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 03 June 2021: Egypt’s PMI and African eurobonds
June 03, 2021 05:46 - 1 minute - 1.65 MBEgypt: The PMI reading for May improved moderately by 0.9 index points to 48.6 but has remained in contractionary territory for six consecutive months. The extension of covid-19 restrictions would have weighed on sentiment, but it was encouraging to note that new orders continue to rise while suppliers’ delivery times fell relative to previous months. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 02 June 2021: Mozambique’s GDP and OPEC+ meeting
June 02, 2021 06:24 - 1 minute - 1.77 MBMozambique: The Mozambican economy grew 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the 2020, effectively exiting the recession. The key sectors in the primary industry supported the economy, with agriculture sector edging up by 4.8%q/q and fishing edging up by 1.3%q/q. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 01 June 2021: Ghana MPC, Kenya’s inflation, Food and Oil prices
June 01, 2021 06:32 - 2 minutes - 2.44 MBGhana: With inflation recently falling, close to the mid-point of the central bank’s inflation target band, the Bank of Ghana opted to cut interest rates by 100bp to 13.5%. This suggests that the committee’s key focus will be economic growth. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 31 May 2021: Covid-19 data and gold prices gains
May 31, 2021 05:55 - 1 minute - 1.76 MBCovid-19: As we approach the mid-year mark, vaccination process in Africa remains constrained based on availability of vaccines. Across select economies in Table 1, vaccinations remain below 2.0% of population. South Africa and Namibia are contending with a third wave with daily cases having also picked up in Zambia. Kenya’s third wave seems to be easing momentum but still remains concerning. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 28 May 2021 - Zambia inflation, Africa local currency bonds
May 28, 2021 05:30 - 1 minute - 1.8 MBKenya: As anticipated, the central bank held the benchmark rate at 7% in yesterday’s meeting, citing anchored inflation expectations amidst a nascent economic recovery. The bank noted that annual price increases were expected to remain within the inflation target band of 5% +/-2.5% in the near term, despite higher oil and food prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 27 May 2021: Kenya’s MPC, Egypt’s tourism revenue and African FX
May 27, 2021 06:08 - 2 minutes - 2.41 MBKenya: As anticipated, the central bank held the benchmark rate at 7% in yesterday’s meeting, citing anchored inflation expectations amidst a nascent economic recovery. The bank noted that annual price increases were expected to remain within the inflation target band of 5% +/-2.5% in the near term, despite higher oil and food prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 26 May 2021: Nigeria’s MPC, Kenya MPC preview and Diamonds
May 26, 2021 06:09 - 2 minutes - 2.48 MBNigeria: As expected, the CBN held the main reference rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting at 11.5% in May. However, unlike the March meeting, all 10 members of the committee voted for a hold compared to 3 members opting for a hike of at least 50bp in its previous deliberation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 25 May 2021: Nigeria’s MPC preview and Iron ore prices
May 25, 2021 06:47 - 1 minute - 1.72 MBNigeria: We do not expect further cuts in Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) which is currently at 11.5%. We rather believe that the MPC sees the elevated inflationary pressures as being supply side driven and therefore focus will be on ensuring that the market remains accommodative in view of both elevated inflation (18.1% y/y at the end of April) and low growth (0.5% y/y at the end of Q1). See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 24 May 2021: Nigeria’s GDP, Covid-19 update and the kwacha
May 24, 2021 05:23 - 2 minutes - 2.42 MBNigeria: The first quarter GDP numbers showed that the economy expanded by 0.5%y/y, supported largely by growth in the non-oil sector that came in at 0.8%y/y. Meanwhile, the OPEC production cut commitments, led to a contraction in the oil sector which printed -2.2% y/y. Earlier this year, we stated that the economy is likely to continue its path of recovery, ending the year at 2.5%. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 21 May 2021: Kenya maize prices and Ghana PPI and bond yields
May 21, 2021 05:54 - 2 minutes - 2.03 MBGhana: Producer prices dropped to 11.1%y/y from 13% a month before. The move lower mirrors the recent drop in the CPI which now stands at 8.5% implying the PPI – CPI spread now stands at 2.6ppt down from its recent peak of 6.7ppt in January 2020. As the economy picks up and consumer incomes rise, we expect producers to pass along any cost pressures to the consumer implying some upside to CPI. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 20 May 2021: Mozambique and Zambia’s MPC decisions and Africa credit
May 20, 2021 05:17 - 2 minutes - 2.29 MBMozambique: In line with our thinking, the central bank held its benchmark rate at 13.25% yesterday although it did flag the insurgency in the north as being a potential source of inflation and exchange rate volatility. We believe central bank front-loaded cuts will keep interest rates flat for the rest of the year despite the rising inflation trajectory. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 19 May 2021: Mozambique and Zambia MPC previews and the kwacha
May 19, 2021 06:34 - 2 minutes - 2.41 MBMozambique: We expect the MPC to keep MIMO rate unchanged 13.50%. The inflation trend shows that inflation may have peaked in March at 5.8%y/y as it eased to 5.2%y/y in April. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AMI 18 May 2021: Botswana and Nigeria inflation prints and oil prices
May 18, 2021 06:15 - 3 minutes - 3.44 MBBotswana: Botswana’s annual price growth skyrocketed to 5.6% y/y in April, compared to 3.2% y/y recorded in March — the highest inflation level recorded since August 2013. This sharp rise follows the implementation of several supply-side changes, such as the increase in VAT (from 12% to 14%); the introduction of a sugar-tax; a 3.0% increase in electricity tariffs; as well as an increase in the fuel levy by P1.00, that were effected on 1 April 2021. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy in...
AMI 17 May 2021: Namibia’s inflation and Gold prices
May 17, 2021 06:06 - 1 minute - 1.85 MBNamibia: The combination of higher food and transport prices has led to inflation growth of 3.9%y/y in April compared to 1.6%y/y in April 2020. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.