SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft Moritz Seibert

Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.
In this episode, we discuss:
How effective Backtests can be
Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets
Ethereum futures
Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded
Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy
Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system
How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding
Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert (Twitter).
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:44 - Macro recap from Niels
04:41 - Weekly review of returns
10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models
13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?
29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?
36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t just in a lucky streak? 
44:15 - Q5; Jeff: What alternatives to Microsoft Excel do you recommend, other than CSI?
49:46 - Ethereum futures and Bitcoin’s newer, smaller futures contracts
58:48 - Benchmark performance update

Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.

In this episode, we discuss:

How effective Backtests can beApply Trend Following models to synthetic marketsEthereum futuresWhy 'dirty fuel' markets should still be tradedCombining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategyDistinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust systemHow to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:44 - Macro recap from Niels

04:41 - Weekly review of returns

10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models

13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?

29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?

36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t just in a lucky streak? 

44:15 - Q5; Jeff: What alternatives to Microsoft Excel do you recommend, other than CSI?

49:46 - Ethereum futures and Bitcoin’s newer, smaller futures contracts

58:48 - Benchmark performance update