Top Traders Unplugged
1,168 episodes - English - Latest episode: 8 days ago - ★★★★★ - 500 ratingsStep into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com
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Episodes
SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver
April 20, 2024 00:00 - 1 hour - 85 MBToday, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better ...
IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer
April 17, 2024 01:00 - 57 minutes - 79.2 MBIn this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for mar...
SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan
April 13, 2024 11:00 - 1 hour - 96 MBIn this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of cr...
TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd
April 10, 2024 00:00 - 1 hour - 97.6 MBToday, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we disc...
SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer
April 06, 2024 04:00 - 1 hour - 103 MBToday, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication str...
ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec
April 03, 2024 06:45 - 56 minutes - 78.1 MBChristophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for U...
SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski
March 30, 2024 03:30 - 1 hour - 91.5 MBMark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up...
OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser
March 27, 2024 07:00 - 58 minutes - 80.4 MBIn this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia. Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech depende...
SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne
March 23, 2024 13:00 - 59 minutes - 82.3 MBJoin us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why man...
OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion
March 20, 2024 04:30 - 45 minutes - 62.6 MBIn this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoidi...
SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
March 16, 2024 01:00 - 59 minutes - 81 MBToday, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024. -...
GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
March 13, 2024 07:00 - 1 hour - 84.6 MBTor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are cur...
SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
March 09, 2024 03:30 - 1 hour - 98.3 MBThis week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncove...
IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
March 06, 2024 05:00 - 58 minutes - 80.4 MBIn this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as t...
SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
March 02, 2024 06:00 - 1 hour - 92.9 MBToday, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege du...
ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
February 28, 2024 07:00 - 1 hour - 89.8 MBPeter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulati...
SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
February 24, 2024 04:00 - 1 hour - 91.6 MBGoldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into...
OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot
February 21, 2024 04:00 - 1 hour - 91.9 MBIn this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in...
SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan
February 18, 2024 05:00 - 1 hour - 99 MBCome along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Ou...
GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff
February 14, 2024 04:00 - 1 hour - 86.7 MBLegendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant ...
SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer
February 11, 2024 04:00 - 1 hour - 94.4 MBAndrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the i...
GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald
February 07, 2024 13:00 - 1 hour - 85.6 MBFrances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwin...
SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
February 03, 2024 07:00 - 56 minutes - 77.9 MBToday, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more m...
IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson
January 31, 2024 11:00 - 1 hour - 85.9 MBIn this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultu...
SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne
January 27, 2024 01:30 - 1 hour - 88.6 MBAs we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal all...
ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
January 24, 2024 05:00 - 1 hour - 83.7 MBCasey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds a...
SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
January 20, 2024 09:00 - 58 minutes - 80.7 MBIn this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her ex...
GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
January 17, 2024 10:00 - 1 hour - 113 MBGet ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year! ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & ...
SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
January 13, 2024 05:00 - 1 hour - 97.1 MBRob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has change...
OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
January 10, 2024 03:00 - 46 minutes - 64.5 MBIn this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a l...
SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
January 06, 2024 09:00 - 1 hour - 90.3 MBCem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed o...
ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast
January 03, 2024 00:00 - 1 hour - 89.4 MBIn this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the...
SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2
December 30, 2023 04:00 - 1 hour - 99.9 MBIn this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged! ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfol...
GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
December 27, 2023 04:00 - 59 minutes - 81.2 MBGreg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We d...
SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1
December 22, 2023 03:45 - 1 hour - 87.9 MBJoin us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we dis...
IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland
December 19, 2023 23:00 - 46 minutes - 63.6 MBIn this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for yea...
SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas
December 16, 2023 13:00 - 1 hour - 90.9 MBToday, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “go...
GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin
December 13, 2023 08:00 - 1 hour - 88.8 MBAI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & B...
SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan
December 09, 2023 13:00 - 1 hour - 93.1 MBHow do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan. ----- EXC...
ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly
December 06, 2023 01:00 - 1 hour - 86.2 MBDavid Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we di...
SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer
December 02, 2023 04:15 - 1 hour - 103 MBToday, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "c...
OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia
November 29, 2023 08:00 - 1 hour - 84 MBAnant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades ...
SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski
November 25, 2023 04:30 - 1 hour - 94.3 MBToday, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up ...
GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
November 22, 2023 05:00 - 1 hour - 89.1 MBDario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, t...
SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne
November 18, 2023 11:00 - 1 hour - 90.2 MBToday, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We al...
OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman
November 15, 2023 05:00 - 56 minutes - 77.4 MBMaia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structural...
SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski
November 12, 2023 04:00 - 56 minutes - 77.9 MBToday’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: ...
GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni
November 08, 2023 04:00 - 56 minutes - 76.9 MBEd Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels...
SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan
November 04, 2023 18:00 - 1 hour - 88.6 MBCem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, ...
OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm
November 01, 2023 12:00 - 1 hour - 83.1 MBYou are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads. Discover how ...