TechCheck

TechCheck+ WeWork’s end, Neumann’s return? Who’s left holding the bag, and what comes next 11/10/23

WeWork took us on a wild ride. A real estate company disguised as a tech startup, holding long-term leases and turning them around for short-term rentals. It was always a risky proposition, made more so in an era of low interest rates and a “growth at all costs” mentality. And Adam Neumann’s particular blend of salesmanship, cult personality, and huge risk-taking only added to the fire. WeWork would come crashing down, not once, but twice. Now, some are wondering, does Adam Neumann return, a...

Chinese Companies, American Consumers 11/10/23

The APEC summit is coming to San Francisco. President Biden and China’s President Xi are set to meet next. Today, how Chinese companies continue to find ways to benefit from American technology and consumers.  

Softbank Shrank 11/9/23

The story of SoftBank -- This quarter should have been Masayoshi Son’s victory lap. But WeWork is back to spoil those plans as losing bets continue to weigh on what has become one of the biggest tech investors in the world.

Amazon & One Medical 11/8/23

Amazon is expanding its Prime membership program… and the new perk: access to doctors, primary care physicians, for a fee. Today, a check-up on Amazon’s continued push into health care.

WeWorks’s Final Chapter? 11/7/23

Think again! WeWork… didn’t work. It has filed for bankruptcy. The final chapter – chapter 11… or is it? The winners and losers of the WeWork saga, does Adam Neumann return, and who’s left holding the bag.

Is the Outlook OK? 11/6/23

A reason to worry for the biggest tech stocks… Is growth slipping, and are investments in AI just masking the problem.

TechCheck+ Tesla and EVs in reverse: Why automakers are scaling back their green ambitions 11/3/23

Electric vehicles were supposed to be the wave of the future. Tesla and traditional automakers made big plans to invest in factories, battery manufacturing and the EVs themselves, but that’s all slowing down. This week on TechCheck, we dive into what’s behind the speed bumps.  

Reporting the SBF Trial 11/3/23

Sam Bankman Fried found guilty on all seven counts. Today – a special look-back at the blockbuster FTX trial from inside the court room… and what it MIGHT mean going forward.

Apple's China Question 11/2/23

China is Apple’s strength and, now, liability. 

Airbnb’s Interest Income 11/1/23

The “Airbnbust”.... that never materialized. How rising rates are actually helping the company’s bottom line. Today on TechCheck, it’s all about interest income.

Tech's Spookiest 10/31/23

The Spookiest bear cases in tech… From Apple to Amazon to Uber, what are the plausible, but low probability outcomes that could deaden these stocks.

An AI Debate 10/31/23

The Biden Administration rolled out sweeping rules meant to create guardrails around the nascent AI industry. Is it good for tech or limiting for tech? Nilay Patel, James Pethokoukis and Eamon Javers discuss.

Amazon’s Big Three 10/27/23

Amazon was a bright spot in tech earnings, giving investors what they wanted. But some major questions remain for the quarters ahead – today, the three that amazon needs to answer.

TechCheck+ Apple’s China problem: how its ticket to success has become a liability 10/27/23

Apple can thank China for much of its success. In the early days, as Apple was on the brink of bankruptcy, it pivoted its manufacturing to China, capitalizing on a massive low-wage workforce, billions in government stimulus to build out enormous factories, and the loyalty of a rapidly growing middle class. But now, what was once a key to its success has become a liability. In just the past few weeks, it’s seen a tax investigation into its biggest manufacturer, accusations of censorship aroun...

The Fundamentals Story 10/26/23

The NASDAQ is slumping… Tech stocks are rolling over… But why? Growth is strong. AI provides a narrative. And the economy isn’t in bad shape. Today: the fundamentals story within tech.

Autonomous Competition, Meta & Amazon 10/25/23

More details emerge around the suspension of Cruise robo-taxis in San Francisco… The battle over autonomous vehicles. And what the latest numbers from Microsoft and Alphabet tell us about Meta and Amazon.  

Microsoft, Alphabet & Cruise 10/24/23

What’s most important about megacap tech earnings – Microsoft & Alphabet. Plus, a major development in the battle over driverless cars in San Francisco. 

YIELD RISK & RETURN 10/23/23

Higher yields yield big changes in tech, in both megacaps and startups. Today, how the price of money is making its presence felt from Silicon Valley to Wall Street.

TechCheck+ Netflix's side quest: A deep dive into its ambitious plans to become a gaming giant 10/20/23

Netflix has quietly been building out a library of more than 70 video games as part of an ambitious new push to become a gaming giant, testing out a cloud gaming service and posting job openings for its first big-budget, blockbuster game. But it's a notoriously tough market to break into, one that many tech and media giants have tried at and failed. The undertaking is just one of a slew of new business lines that the Netflix has been experimenting with, and they're more important than ever a...

Big Tech Earnings – The Promise Vs. Economics Of Ai 10/20/23

It’s the eve of big tech earnings - Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, four of the magnificent seven, set to report next week. It’s all about the forecast, about what they saw in the third quarter, and what they see coming down the pike in Q4… Plus the promise versus the economics of AI.

OPENAI’S “CAPPED PROFITS” STRUCTURE 10/19/23

ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is reportedly closing in on an $86 billion valuation… why it’s selling shares now… to whom… and its very unorthodox ‘capped profit’ corporate structure.

IPOs, EXITS & AI SPEND 10/18/23

Deirdre is in the field at the Goldman Sachs Builders & Innovators Summit, where she sits down with Kim Posnett, Goldman’s Global Head of Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Group within Global Banking & Markets – where she works on some of the biggest tech deals, M&A and IPOs. Plus an interview with Dropbox CEO Drew Houston about his outlook for AI spending.

Are Layoffs Back? And Tim Cook Goes to China 10/17/23

Another round of layoffs hit the tech sector, just as they gear up for earnings season -- margin expansion versus capex expansion. Plus Tim Cook’s surprise visit to China.

SPICY VS. GARPY 10/16/23

As earnings season kicks off, why tech is more important than the banks; how AI could kill the “year of efficiency;” and the spicy vs garpy mega-caps

OPENAI’S OPEN QUESTIONS 10/13/23

New numbers from OpenAI reveal exponential growth. The darling of generative AI continues to fire on all cylinders. But can it become more than a chatbot and live up to its now giant expectations?

TechCheck+ Will Temu Kill Amazon? How the Chinese Shopping App’s Rapid Growth Could Crack Amazon’s Dominance 10/13/23

Temu appears unstoppable. Since the Chinese shopping app launched in the U.S. a year ago, it has become the number one e-commerce app in the country, with downloads skyrocketing 50x from 600,000 to 30 million in just one quarter, according to Bernstein analysts. In contrast, Amazon’s downloads have dropped off a cliff, falling 40% in a year. Known for wild discounts and dirt-cheap prices that severely undercut Amazon’s, Temu has ratcheted up its ad spend to infiltrate the American consumer, ...

CNBC SPECIAL: Anthony Scaramucci on The Collapse of FTX 10/13/23

Former billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried saw a meteoric rise as crypto’s golden boy and an even more spectacular fall as his $32 billion cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, collapsed in a matter of days. CNBC's Kate Rooney spoke with Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, about his front-row seat to the collapse and what it was like to visit SBF while his empire was crumbling around him. For the full Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX saga, watch the CNBC documentary "The Collapse of FTX: Insiders Te...

Birkenstock’s IPO Flops; Why Recent Debuts Have Stumbled 10/12/23

The IPO window of 2023 was short, not very sweet, and now likely closed as we head into the year end. Many of the recent debuts, including Birkenstock, Arm, Instacart and Klaviyo are down 10% or more from their highs, all before the lock-up period has expired when insiders can sell their shares. There are a number of factors that could be behind the stumbles, including company fundamentals, bankers mispricing the listing, and market conditions.   

Birkenstock & Amazon Prime Day 10/11/23

CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa and Marc Golbert discuss Amazon Prime Day and Birkenstock's IPO price, the state of direct-to-consumer retail models, and Birkenstock’s unique approach to DTC business.

Temu: Amazon’s Rising E-Commerce Competition 10/10/23

As Amazon’s second sales event of the year kicks off, every day seems like a deal day on e-commerce apps like Temu and Shein. Temu, in particular, is far outpacing Amazon in terms of growth, and might be capturing American shoppers by gamifying the experience. Ben Harburg of MSA Capital joins us to talk about the Temu effect and the rising anxiety that it’s going to displace everyone from Amazon to Dollar Stores to Costco. 

Bullish Reception for Arm Holdings 10/9/23

The chip designer Arm gained a number of bulls today as its post-debut quiet period ends, with more than 10 firms involved in underwriting the IPO initiating coverage of the company at a “buy” rating or equivalent, despite the stock being down more than 20% from the intra-day high after it IPO-ed. That’s good news for Softbank founder Masayoshi Son, as Arm has become his firm’s new crown jewel after Alibaba, going from a 12% stake in March last year to 22% as of June this year.  

TechCheck+ The Valuation Reckoning: When AI Startup Darlings Hit Stratospheric Levels 10/6/23

Anthropic’s Funding Spree, Plus Antitrust Regulators on New Priorities 10/5/23

AI startups are continuing to raise money by the bucketful. This time, it’s the chatbot maker Anthropic, which is reportedly in talks to raise $2 billion from Google and other companies, giving it an eye-popping $20 billion to $30 billion valuation. Plus, two of Biden’s top antitrust regulators gave an update today on the administration’s efforts to hold big tech accountable, just a few weeks into the DOJ’s landmark case against Google. The DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter said he’s been surprised abou...

Apple Analyst Expects Weaker iPhone Sales Ahead 10/4/23

Shares of Apple are up fractionally today despite a rare downgrade from KeyBanc - laying out an alternative view from what most analyst have been saying going into Apple's most important quarter of the year. The analyst joined Tech Check, describing his concerns including rich valuations nearing all-time-highs, U.S. iPhone sales softening, and international growth under pressure. 

Nvidia’s New Threat to AWS, Plus Microsoft Faces a Key AI Test 10/3/23

Nvidia’s new strategy to dominate the future of AI might lie in the cloud. A report from The Information says Nvidia talked to at least one data center owner about leasing space to power its own cloud service - requiring major investment but could also be a big source of new revenue. Plus, Microsoft will soon try to generate meaningful sales directly from AI with the launch of its new AI assistant Co-Pilot for business customers. It costs nearly $30 per user per month, but some customers tes...

Mega Discounts for Megacap Tech, Plus Microsoft CEO Testifies in Google Antitrust Trial 10/2/23

After a big September selloff, megacap tech stocks might be cheap again. P/E ratios have fallen steeply and are at their biggest discount since Jan. 2017 as analysts continue to boost their earnings estimates for the next fiscal year, according to Goldman Sachs. Plus, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella today took the stand in the DOJ’s antitrust trial against Google, and explained why it’s so hard to compete against the tech giant’s search engine dominance. 

TechCheck+ Regulators Take On Amazon: The FTC’s Make or Break Moment 9/29/23

President Biden signaled an aggressive new agenda to curb the power of companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta when he appointed Lina Khan, Jonathan Kanter, and Tim Wu – a trio of the toughest antitrust regulators to hold them accountable. Instead, two years in, big tech is bigger and more powerful than ever. This week on Tech Check, we dive into the toothless regulators and their upcoming showdowns that could be make-or-break for them, and for the dominance of big tech.   

A September to Forget for Tech 9/29/23

As Q3 inches to a close, tech stocks have had a rough end to the summer and a rough ride lower in September. But Apple is really the culprit, because of its oversized weighting in broader. Plus, though China has been a key overhang for the market, there are signs beneath the headlines that American companies are still making inroads, as Nike reports tailwinds from Chinese consumers, and Chinese internet regulators propose relaxing rules on data flows abroad.  

Amazon Faces New Competition as FTC Takes Aim 9/27/23

The FTC is now targeting Amazon in a new antitrust suit, alleging it’s running an illegal monopoly, with Lina Khan saying the e-commerce giant’s tactics deprive rivals of the ability to gain customers. But Amazon might actually now be facing more competition than ever - including from upstarts like Shopify, which just announced an investment in wholesale platform Faire, further entrenching Shopify as an Amazon alternative for sellers. 

Amazon Sued By FTC, 17 States Alleging Monopoly Practices 9/26/23

The FTC and 17 states filed a antitrust suit today alleging Amazon inflates online prices and overcharges sellers. The agency and FTC chair Lina Khan’s credibility are at stake in this massive case. Khan badly needs a win -- she made her name in law school by targeting the tech giant, but during her tenure, she’s only allowed the Prime ecosystem to get stronger and more entrenched. 

Amazon Steps Up AI Arms Race With Anthropic Investment 9/25/23

Amazon is investing up to $4 billion in startup Anthropic as it looks to stake a claim in the AI arms race. Both stand to benefit: Amazon, with a buzzy customer for its custom AI chips and a minority stake in one of the early applications of generative AI, while Anthropic gets a big backer and AWS’ compute power. This isn’t, however, the exclusive partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI inked earlier this year, since Anthropic already received a partnership and investment from Google in May. 

TechCheck+ Is Instacart Really a Tech Company? The Case For and Against 9/22/23

Some of the biggest, most highly-anticipated IPOs of the last few years have fallen short, burning investors who thought they were buying a technology stock. Peloton, WeWork, Blue Apron, and StitchFix all might have called themselves tech companies, but their growth ended up being hugely restricted by real-world limitations. So as a new wave of IPOs begin, investors might be struggling to determine where Instacart falls. This week on Tech Check, we dive into the grocery delivery app and ask,...

Microsoft-Activision Deal Set to Clear Final Hurdle, Plus iPhone 15 Launches Worldwide 9/22/23

Microsoft looks to be closing in on its acquisition of Activision, after regulators in the United Kingdom signaled approval. The deal might be an example of how companies can ride out the stricter regulatory scrutiny under the Biden administration, adding to a string of blows that could leave corporate America feeling emboldened to pursue more deals. Plus, Apple’s newest iPhone went on sale around the world today, with Tim Cook opening an Apple store in New York City as part of the festiviti...

Cisco Strikes $28 Billion Deal for Splunk 9/21/23

Cisco’s $28 billion acquisition of Splunk signals where the company wants to go: a legacy tech hardware company trying to pivot to software and services, in a bid to help topline growth and give it heft in two of the buzziest tech subsectors, cybersecurity and AI. 

TechCheck+ Instacart CEO Fidji Simo 9/19/23

CNBC's Dierdre Bosa spoke with Instacart CEO, Fidji Simo, to discuss why now was the time to finally go public and how the company arrived at the decision to price where they have.

Instacart CEO on Competition and Accelerating Growth Post-Covid 9/19/23

As more grocers begin looking to build their own delivery networks, what does that mean for Instacart’s competitive moat? The world’s largest grocery delivery platform opened trading today on the Nasdaq at $42 a share, and Instacart CEO Fidji Simo discussed why grocers choose to stay on their marketplace, and how she expects the company to continue to grow after seeing the benefits of grocery delivery during the pandemic. 

Beware the Blockbuster IPO 9/15/23

With Arm’s successful listing and Instacart’s debut on deck, the blockbuster IPO is back. But retail investors might want to proceed with caution before buying in. Those that jumped into some of the largest recent IPOs on the first day of trading have all lost money, according to our analysis, and would’ve seen dramatically better returns just buying the S&P. And even the connected, institutional investors that bought coveted shares at the IPO price have seen huge losses, as rising interest ...

Instacart Raises IPO Price Target Following Arm’s Debut 9/15/23

Instacart today raised the price range for its upcoming IPO after Arm’s successful debut yesterday, boosting the valuation to around $10 billion dollars. But that might be little comfort to the investors who bought in at Instacart’s peak valuation of $39 billion two years ago. We break down the winners and losers of the debut, including the VCs who got in early and the big institutional investors that are getting put under the water.  

Arm IPO: Implications for Venture Capital and Softbank Founder Masa Son 9/14/23

Softbank-backed chip designer Arm's successful listing today could open the IPO floodgates, according to Lux Capital’s Shahin Farshchi. He says the offering could generate more interest in new chip players, drive capital into private semi names, and encourage private companies to consider public market financing. The IPO might also be a much-needed win Masayoshi Son. Even though the Softbank founder has hung his entire legacy on being central to the AI shift, he’s had a number of big misses,...

DOJ’s Historic Trial Against Alphabet Kicks Off – How Will Sundar Pichai Do In Wartime? 9/12/23

The DOJ's landmark tech monopoly trial against Alphabet kicked off today – with the government grilling its first witness Google Chief Economist Hal Varian about his advice to the company on antitrust issues. It’s reminiscent of the DOJ’s big tech trial of 20 years ago against Microsoft, when Bill Gates was the big personality. This time around though, all eyes are on Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai -- and though he's often been called "soft-spoken" and a "nice guy," his track record so far sugge...