Stolen Signs
35 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 5 years ago - ★★★★ - 29 ratingsKendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis discuss baseball statistics, as well as look for the stories and people behind the stats.
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Episodes
Episode 36: Dingers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and ARod
April 25, 2019 21:00 - 21 minutes - 9.94 MBWe talk about the Great Home Run Surge of 2019, the Rabbit Ball, Slippier in the Air Ball, the call up of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alex Rodriguez on YouTube. Links: * Moonshot: The Baseball Is Juiced (Again) by Robert Arthur * Moonshot: Exit Velocity Is Higher Than Ever by Robert Arthur * Moonshot: The Rabbit Ball is Flying in Triple-A Too by Robert Arthur * The Call-Up: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. by Jarrett Seidler and Kevin Jebens * Circle Change: Who’s Hitting the Extra Dingers? by Zach Cri...
Episode 35: New MLB Rules with Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal
March 14, 2019 21:00 - 1 hour - 27.5 MBWe talked with Jared Diamond about recent MLB rules changes. Specifically related to one of our favorite subjects, two-way players. We address how teams will have to designate players as, pitchers, hitters, or two-way and what effect those rules will have on the game. We also get a peak into Jared's upcoming book. Harry and Kendall also dig into some of the upcoming changes that MLB will be testing out in the Atlantic League.
Episode 34: Projection Roundtable with the creators of ZiPS, Steamer, THE BAT and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA
February 21, 2019 08:15 - 50 minutes - 23.3 MBWe chatted with the creators and maintainers of four major projection systems, ZiPS (Dan Szymborski (https://twitter.com/DSzymborski)), Steamer (Jared Cross (https://twitter.com/steamerpro)), THE BAT (Derek Carty (https://twitter.com/DerekCarty)) and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/) (Harry Pavlidis (https://twitter.com/harrypav)) about how their systems are created, how the past is used to project future performance and how projecting young ...
Episode 33: PECOTA 2019 with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown
February 07, 2019 09:15 - 51 minutes - 23.8 MBDeep dive into DRC+ and PECOTA with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown of Baseball Prospectus. Stats Chat DRC Updates and Improvements DRC+ and Observables All DRC+ coverage Projected Standings based on PECOTA How to watch Serie del Caribe 2019
Episode 32: How big can this Hall get?
December 15, 2018 08:15 - 53 minutes - 24.6 MBShohei Ohtani revisited, baseball Hall of Fame bar lowering and how it affects who gets in, lining up optimal player development and what happens when you launch a new statistic. Available at Baseball Prospectus (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/podcasts/episode-32-how-big-can-this-hall-get/)
Episode 31: Changing Pitchers, Changing Players, Changing Owners
November 15, 2018 08:15 - 54 minutes - 25.1 MBHarry and Kendall talk about the quantifying The Opener phenomenon, Bill James' comments about replacing players, trying to figure out if regular baseball fans could visibly tell the difference between top MLB talent and replacement level talent. Then cap it off with a discussion about the changes at Baseball Prospectus.
Episode 30: In the playoffs (and always) pitching and catching are important
October 25, 2018 10:00 - 25 minutes - 35.4 MBIn the playoffs (and always) pitching and catching are important Donate to the Lupus Foundation (http://bit.ly/2O7rtgh) Required Reading The unlucky legacy of the 2018 Houston Astros (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25024557/the-unlucky-legacy-2018-houston-astros) by Sam Miller (https://twitter.com/sammillerbb) Joel Sherman writes about the plight of catchers (https://nypost.com/2018/10/24/its-not-just-gary-inside-the-catching-plague-thats-only-getting-worse/)
Episode 29: Building a Baseball Team for the Playoffs and the Future
October 04, 2018 07:15 - 58 minutes - 27.5 MBWe talk about how you build a baseball team for the playoffs and the future. It’s good to talk about baseball. Enjoy the playoffs.
Episode 28: Women's Baseball World Cup and the Rise of the 100 MPH Pitcher
August 23, 2018 07:15 - 50 minutes - 23.6 MBHarry and Kendall talk about the Women's Baseball World Cup, then look at how the number of 🔥high velocity🔥pitchers has increased over the last 10 years. They wrap up with a discussion of how bullpen usage affects lineups and how it might affect your daily fantasy league. Stolen Bases book (https://amzn.to/2wmOnJw) by Jennifer Ring, Ph.D. (https://www.unr.edu/political-science/people/jennifer-ring) Women's Baseball World Cup website (https://wbwc.wbsc.org/) Women's Baseball World Cup YouTube...
Episode 27: Bringing numbers to the booth with Jason Benetti
July 14, 2018 06:00 - 59 minutes - 27.8 MBWe visit with Jason Benetti, television play by play announcer for the Chicago White Sox. We talk with him about his start in the business, taking over for a broadcasting legend, how he integrates Steve Stone's first hand knowledge, with the plethora of statistical data he has access to. We also touch on the All Star Game and how catchers are evaluated for the Hall of Fame.
Episode 26: It seems the seam material has a material impact with Dr. Meredith Wills
June 14, 2018 13:00 - 1 hour - 32.9 MBTalking about the materials that make up a baseball with Dr. Meredith Wills (https://twitter.com/Bbl_Astrophyscs). We also revisit two-way players, dig into defensive metrics and why they're difficult, and are reminded that everything old is new again. How one tiny change to the baseball may have led to both the home run surge and the rise in pitcher blisters (https://theathletic.com/381544/2018/06/06/how-one-tiny-change-to-the-baseball-may-have-led-to-both-the-home-run-surge-and-the-rise-in...
Episode 25: Sergio Romo is The Opener with R.J. Anderson
May 31, 2018 11:00 - 1 hour - 33.2 MBR.J. Anderson of CBS Sports came on to talk with us about the Rays recent usage of Sergio Romo as a starting pitcher. We talk about whether this concept will continue and if there may be other teams willing to try it out. We also talk with Anthony Rescan about his Baseball Prospectus Intern project for calculating surplus draft value. We threw in a handful of things we've learned over the last few weeks including tidbits about Kendrys Morales, Jordan Hicks, and the predictive value of xStats...
Episode 24: Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball
May 24, 2018 18:00 - 1 hour - 51.5 MBWe discuss the Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball released on May 24, 2018. We talk with committee chair Dr. Alan Nathan, and committee member Dr. Dan Brooks as well as radar and target tracking research engineer, Dr. Sean O'Rourke. We examine what the report is saying and what it means going forward.
Episode 23: Evaluating Baseball Statistics with Sam Miller of ESPN
May 17, 2018 12:00 - 1 hour - 34.5 MBSam Miller joined us to talk about his recent article about evaluating Statcast's new Pop Time metric. Surprising exactly no one, we also talk about Shohei Ohtani, again. And take a look at Robinson Cańo's Hall of Fame candidacy. 'Pop' science: Your guide to learning a new MLB stat by Sam Miller Usain Bolt playing baseball by Sam Miller A big step forward in measuring command by Eno Sarris CMD from Baseball Prospectus What Makes a Good Change Up? Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 by Harry Pavlidis...
Episode 21: Baseball is Back
April 06, 2018 05:00 - 1 hour - 29 MBBaseball is back and we're all so glad
Episode 20: Spin Rates and Designing Pitches with Jeff Long
March 15, 2018 08:00 - 1 hour - 38.1 MB2:32 Revisiting PECOTA team projections 10:44 Announce winners of The Shift by Russell A. Carleton giveaway 14:40 Spin Rates and Pitch Design with Jeff Long 1:08:45 Home Runs Have Surged in MLB — Baseball Experts Explain Why NBC Left Field (h/t Rob Arthur) Other Links What would happen if you tried to hit a baseball pitched at 90% the speed of light? Ellen McManis
Episode 19: Park Factors and Pitch Design
March 01, 2018 06:00 - 1 hour - 90.2 MBWhen we talk about park adjusted stats, and park factors, what does all of that mean? How do we arrive at those numbers and how do we account for changes over time? We also talk about "pitch design" and how that combines analytical data and player development. Links: The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking by Russell A. Carleton Basics Of Pitch Design Using Rapsodo Baseball Prospectus' Park Factors by Handedness
Episode 18: Making PECOTA with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown
February 16, 2018 07:45 - 1 hour - 35.5 MBWe talk with Jonathan Judge (https://twitter.com/bachlaw) and Rob McQuown (https://twitter.com/Robmcquown), who oversee Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/) to get some more insight into how the projections are made, what's new this year, and of course hip hop. Sam Miller (https://twitter.com/SamMillerBB) asks how much we'd be willing to endure to play Major League Baseball (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22381495/put-coach-how-much-...
Episode 17: These Are Not the Robot Umpires You're Looking For
February 01, 2018 06:00 - 1 hour - 88.8 MBWe talk to Jeff Long (https://twitter.com/JeffLongBP), Sean O'Rourke (https://twitter.com/dj_mosfett), Wayne Boyle (https://twitter.com/PitchGrader), and Russell Carleton (https://twitter.com/pizzacutter4) about their recent Pitching Week (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/tag/pitching-week/) article about the Robot Strikezone and Robot Umpires (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/). New Power, Command, Stamina pitching metrics (http://leg...
Episode 16: Inning(s) Eaters and Aces
January 18, 2018 13:00 - 57 minutes - 79.9 MBStolen Signs is back. Harry and Kendall talk about the slow offseason, collusion and ideas on how to change the economics of baseball. After a short break (14:05) they discuss new research by Duke University that looks into neurological and motor skills and how they translate to baseball production, a new smart baseball that can provide some pitch tracking and tease some new work by the stats team at Baseball Prospectus. To wrap up (32:00), a look into the state of pitching and try to talk ab...
Episode 15: Twas the Episode Before Christmas
December 22, 2017 13:00 - 1 hour - 47.6 MBWe touch on many issues of the day as we wrap up 2017 in style. 3:10 - Marlins firesale fallout - Dan LeBatard show (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDT-a7fh5fc) 17:05 - Bob Bowman forced out at MLBAM (https://www.wsj.com/articles/baseballs-rainmaker-forced-out-after-alleged-misconduct-1513882805) 23:38 - Shohei Ohtani ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA projections 35:20 - The Case for Long-Form Movement (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36603/pitching-backward-case-long-form-movement/)...
Episode 14: Shohei Otani and Japanese Baseball with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki
December 07, 2017 19:00 - 1 hour - 38.9 MBWe talk with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki about the NPB posting system, differences between the mounds, balls, culture of MLB and NPB and dig a little deeper into some of the myths about Japanese pitchers coming over to MLB. We also look into the current state of the sabermetric community in Japan. Effectively Wild Episode 1145: The Reigning-MVP Podcast (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1145-the-reigning-mvp-podcast/) Effectively Wild episode where Ben and Jeff Sull...
Episode 13: Wins Above Replacement discussion with Sean Forman (bWAR), David Cameron (fWAR), Greg Matthews (openWAR), Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge (WARP)
November 29, 2017 09:00 - 1 hour - 86.9 MBWe welcome Sean Forman from Baseball Reference, David Cameron from FanGraphs, Greg Matthews from openWAR, Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge from Baseball Prospectus to the show. With all the recent discussion about Wins Above Replacement statistics, we wanted to get people who create and maintain the statistics together to talk about how their respective stats are created and calculated. We talk about what replacement level is, positional adjustments, how to accurately portray confidence in th...
Episode 12: Making Sausage and Catching Up
November 16, 2017 21:00 - 1 hour - 39.9 MBHarry and Kendall look back at the World Series, discuss the Cy Young awards and the BBWAA vote has lined up with BP's pitching metrics over the past few years. Next up is a preview of some new pitching statistics that the Baseball Prospectus stats team is working on and why that's proven to be a challenge. Harry gives a look into how these statistics are imagined, designed, tested, and tweaked throughout the process.
Episode 11: Unusual Paths to the Rotation and Everything Old is New Again with Jarrett Seidler
October 26, 2017 17:00 - 1 hour - 29 MBThis week Harry and Kendall talk to Jarrett Seidler from the Baseball Prospectus Prospects team about the cyclical nature of baseball in general, and analytics specifically. Harry and Kendall also take a closer look at how pitchers end up in the bullpen and examine their route to get there. For this exercise they looked at pitchers with a debut season of > 20 IP as a reliever, and fewer starter innings than reliever innings in that year and then went on to log > 75 IP as a starter in a subse...
Episode 10: Looking back at PECOTA
October 12, 2017 11:00 - 1 hour - 35.7 MBWe start by talking about projection systems in general, then dive into 2017 PECOTA team projections. We look to see how adding in actual playing time affects the team totals. Then we talk about individual players that out-performed and under-performed their PECOTA projections. This Week I Learned: * Harry learns that "bullpenning" is a thing, sort of, maybe, kind of. (h/t Matt Trueblood (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32960)) * Kendall learns to make adjustments in...
Episode 9: Playoff Formats and Rosters w/ Rob Arthur, Ben Diamond, Greg Matthews, and Travis Sawchik
September 28, 2017 19:00 - 1 hour - 60.2 MBWe sat down with Rob Arthur, Ben Diamond, Greg Matthews, and Travis Sawchik to talk about the MLB playoffs. We touched on playoff formats (past, present, and future?) and then moved on to talk about roster construction and optimization for the playoffs. After that, Harry and Kendall talk about the things they learned this week. Links: Alternate Reality Playoff Races by Ben Diamond Let’s Improve the Wild-Card Round by Travis Sawchik The Yankees Are Built to Bullpen the Wild Card Game by...
Episode 8: Pitcher Similarity Scores
September 22, 2017 05:00 - 58 minutes - 82.2 MBThis week Harry and Kendall discuss pitcher similarity scores. Where did they come from? What are they? What can they be used for? And what might they evolve into. This week Kendall learned a little about Ted Williams, and Harry learned something from Neil deGrasse Tyson. Links: Pitcher similarity scores by Josh Kalk Clustering pitchers by similarity by Vince Gennaro Measuring Pitcher Similarity by Glenn Healey, Shiyuan Zhao and Dan Brooks Baseball Reference Similarity Score Definitio...
Episode 7: The Rise of the Two-Way Player
September 17, 2017 02:00 - 1 hour - 62.3 MBWith the news of Shohei Ohtani's imminent posting from the NPB, this episode we talk with Sung Min Kim from the Sporting News about the posting system as well as a closer look at Ohtani. Harry and Kendall then discuss the precedence of two-way players in the Major Leagues and talk about what they've learned this week. Links: Frank HowardMLBAM Outs Above AverageHunter Greene's future is on the moundCan Cincinnati Reds prospect Hunter Greene be this smart and this good? Yes
Episode 6: Baseball and Psychology with Dan Brooks and Russell Carleton
September 08, 2017 13:00 - 1 hour - 65.5 MBThis week Harry and Kendall welcome Dan Brooks from Brooks Baseball and Russell Carleton from Baseball Prospectus. We talk with Dan and Russell about how baseball relates to their professional field of study, psychology. Russell has a new book coming out, called "The Shift", which is available for pre-order. To steal a play from Russell's playbook, we command you to pre-order it.
Episode 5: Sabermetrics Timeline
September 01, 2017 13:00 - 1 hour - 57.4 MBWe go through a rough outline of the history of sabermetrics. And we also want to ask for your help. We're sure we missed things. If you know of so key point in the history of sabermetrics, please help us add to our list.
Episode 4: Stats and Storytellers with Jonah Keri
August 25, 2017 13:00 - 1 hour - 67.4 MBThis is the first in a new recurring series called Stats and Storytellers. We're excited to welcome Jonah Keri as our first guest. Our conversation was wide-reaching and really interesting. We talked about Jonah's recent article about the Expos mascot, Youppi, getting ejected from a game back in 1989, touched on the stats behind why he thought Tim Raines deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. Jonah reflected on his time at BP (and elsewhere), and we had a great discussion about the ins and outs ...
Episode 3: Not Just Academic: Rob Arthur and Jim Albert on the Hot Hand
August 17, 2017 16:00 - 1 hour - 67.8 MBThis week we talked to Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight and Jim Albert, professor of mathematics and statistics at Bowling Green State University about Rob's article Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real, co-authored by Greg Matthews assistant professor of statistics at Loyola University Chicago. We covered specifics of the article and the research behind it and also delved into how we can present statistical analysis to the general public in a way that's both rigorous and accessible.
Episode 2: DIPs, FIP, DRA and You
August 15, 2017 16:30 - 1 hour - 79.4 MBOn Episode 2 of Stolen Signs we briefly recap SaberSeminar 2017, answer a listener email about how to learn more about baseball stats, and we have a discussion about pitching metrics with Jonathan Judge of Baseball Prospectus and Neil Weinberg of FanGraphs. You can email Kendall and Harry at [email protected] and follow them on Twitter @stolensigns.
Episode 1: Welcome to the Stolen Signs Podcast
August 01, 2017 16:00 - 55 minutes - 52.1 MBThis is episode 1 of the Stolen Signs podcast, a new podcast from the stats team at Baseball Prospectus. Your hosts Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis introduce the show, themselves and talk to Jeff Long and Kate Morrison about their presentation at SaberSeminar 2017 about pitch selection, sequencing, and tunnels. You can email Kendall and Harry at [email protected] and follow them on Twitter @stolensigns.