Sosnoff / Ratigan - Truth or Skepticism from tastylive
208 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 18 hours ago -Tom Sosnoff and Dylan Ratigan reunite for a weekly podcast, ranting on everything from sports and investing to politics and monetary policy.
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Episodes
Where Do You Get The Best Leaders?
May 17, 2023 20:42 - 46 minutes - 64 MBThere is a reason corporations are more efficient than politicians. A good CEO knows they doesn’t know everything. They seek out the best of the best as they assemble teams and trust those teams to execute on a vision. In politics, embedded politicians face no consequence for being wrong and they tend to believe they know more than everyone else. Tom and Dylan discuss leadership, what an effective leader looks like and more on this week’s episode.
Mandatory Retirement
May 10, 2023 21:13 - 46 minutes - 63.5 MBAt what age do most people stop innovating? Maybe it’s time we identify a point at which innovators become a headwind if we want to progress economically, academically, and politically. Too many companies are led by people who are more focused on maintaining the status quo. Is there a way to change that? Tune in and check out what Dylan and Tom have to say.
Banking Failures and Consolidation
May 03, 2023 19:26 - 49 minutes - 67.9 MBThe reasons regional banks are failing aren’t anyone’s fault but their own. Unless it’s because of someone else. Who is to blame here? Clearly, there was mismanagement. But was there also a political decision made to take advantage of mismanagement in an effort to consolidate the banking system? On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss who is to blame for the banking crisis and more.
Who’s Driving Who?
April 26, 2023 20:15 - 46 minutes - 63.9 MBWhich came first, the chicken or the egg? The same question or at least a variation of it can be asked in corporate America. Is it the visionaries that move the economy or the private equity speculators that fund the visions? Was Uber truly a revolutionary concept or was it private equity’s willingness to take a shot that led to its success? Tune into this week’s episode as Tom and Dylan discuss this and more.
Fox News and Dominion
April 19, 2023 19:34 - 44 minutes - 61.6 MBFor an economy to thrive, participants have to maintain faith in it. That includes having faith justice will be doled out equally. Unfortunately, there are ample examples of this not being the case. Wells Fargo and the fake accounts. Fox News spreading lies about Dominion. But when these large companies don’t face criminal justice penalties for their crime, it erodes confidence in the whole system. On this week’s episode, Dylan and Tom discuss this and more.
Surveillance Economy
April 12, 2023 19:27 - 44 minutes - 60.8 MBThe robots don’t need to take over the world in some Terminator-like war if the data can make people do the work for them. Most of us think by clicking or not clicking on a link keeps us in control of our decisions. Think again. Apps like TikTok can actually figure out what to serve you based on whether or not you’re typing. The rate at which your thumbs peck out letters or don’t peck them out might be of more value to data collectors than links you click on. But combining the two, clicking ...
Hypocritical Oath
April 05, 2023 19:58 - 47 minutes - 65.3 MBThere’s nothing wrong with pointing out a deficiency in a system. However, when Jamie Dimon says it’ll take a year for the banking system to recover, it’s not because he’s worried. It’s because he sees the opportunity the moment is presenting and he’s trying to capitalize. By questioning the solvency of small banks, he’s effectively saying big banks are the only safe place. Whether or not he’s correct isn’t the point. Instead, it’s just a way to try and grab more market share.
The Death of the Cosmopolitan Conglomerate
March 29, 2023 19:45 - 46 minutes - 63.2 MBWe’ve been living in an era where corporations have largely relied on acquisitions to grow. Cheap money helped make those deals possible. But interest rates are rising and deals are becoming more expensive. Regulators are looking under the hood at business practices as privacy concerns grow. Arguably, most importantly, investment bankers need to justify their bonuses with new deals. With news Alibaba plans to split into six new companies, are we entering an era of divesture? Tune into this w...
Greed and Fear
March 23, 2023 12:46 - 44 minutes - 61.4 MBIt’s a fair question to ask how best to value an asset. Should it be based on present value or future cash flows? Should corporate leaders affect value? Do interest rate policy decisions by the Fed matter? It makes for a great discussion but at the end of the day, there’s no substitute for an efficient market. Markets aren’t influenced by narratives or an agenda. They’re driven by greed and fear. It’s as simple as that. Tune in to hear this week’s episode as Tom and Dylan discuss this and mo...
Silicon Valley Bank and Risk
March 15, 2023 19:21 - 42 minutes - 57.9 MBWhat caused Silicon Valley Bank to implode? Was it as simple as greed, risk, and moral hazard? Was it an oversight failure? Was it the limited revenue streams for banks? Or was it a much more complicated set of circumstances? We can’t solve the problem until we understand what caused the problem. Tune in to this week’s episode as Tom and Dylan discuss what’s happened.
It’s Your Money
March 08, 2023 20:44 - 42 minutes - 58.6 MBAs a country, we place tremendous emphasis on home ownership. But as the cost of buying a home becomes more and more far reaching, we need new ways to afford homes. Last week, Amazon employees found out they can use stock as collateral against a mortgage. Is this a great way to help home buyers or is it a pledge of capital investors don’t fully understand? Tom and Dylan debate this and more on this week’s episode.
Are Regulators the Greatest Friction to Progress?
March 01, 2023 19:25 - 44 minutes - 61.5 MBRegulators are charged with ensuring fair rules are exercised equally for all participants. In order for evolution and ingenuity to continue, regulators need to evolve. Individual investors are hamstrung from improving their own financial literacy in large part because regulators don’t evolve at a speed equal to the market. On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan debate the role of regulators and where the balance should be between allowing investors to invest as they see fit and how regulatio...
The End of Information
February 22, 2023 21:10 - 42 minutes - 58.6 MBOne of the basic aspects of economics is the relationship between price and scarcity. The more scare a commodity, the more valuable it is. Information was once considered the most valuable commodity and those with first access had an advantage. But in a world where information is in abundance yet not verifiable, the value of that information is less. What is of value today is the ability to take action. Tune in as Tom and Dylan debate the value of information and if more information is for b...
35 Years Later
October 19, 2022 19:11 - 44 minutes - 103 MB35 years ago today was the crash of 1987. If you were at a doctor, in a meeting, or in school, chances are you didn’t know what was happening until later that day because we didn’t have phones or instant access to information. That lack of instant information also meant if you were the subject of an unfavorable news story, it was nearly impossible to escape that story. Today, politicians, CEOs, and whoever can flood social media to change the narrative when they need or want to do so. That i...
What is Capitalism?
October 12, 2022 19:05 - 45 minutes - 63.1 MBThe purpose of capitalism, at its core, is to facilitate opportunity. Help money find its way to ideas that can offer the best return at the most reasonable level of risk. But in today’s world, we have competing definitions of what capitalism should be. Understanding it and what ultimately drives capitalism is the focus of this week. Tune in as Tom and Dylan discuss who plays the biggest role for capitalism to be successful and who doesn’t.
Where is the Line?
October 05, 2022 19:28 - 46 minutes - 63.5 MBWe live in a world where we rely on free markets for accurate price discovery. Fair value is the price point at which buyers and sellers are willing to meet. But is there a moral line depending on the circumstances? If a hotel room usually costs $400 a night but after a hurricane where all the houses are gone, they can charge $4000 a night, should they? What about following a plane crash and people sell out of panic? Should buyers come in well below where price was just before the crash and ...
How Do You Know?
September 28, 2022 19:20 - 41 minutes - 57 MBOpportunity is in the eye of the beholder. Some people run away from risk out of fear while others see an opportunity in that fear. When markets start falling, most investors become hesitant. They see the sky falling. Others, however, ask how much more the sky can possibly fall before it starts going back up? Risk perception is what makes a market. In this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss contextualizing risk, reward, and more.
Survival of the Monopolist
September 21, 2022 19:38 - 44 minutes - 61.2 MBOn the back to the Fed decision to raise interest rates, Tom breaks down why knowing in advance what the Fed would say didn’t matter. From there, Tom and Dylan take on whether or not companies have to become monopolies in order to survive. It isn’t about dominating a specific business vertical anymore, it’s about dominating a sector, like how Amazon dominates in the retail space. If you don’t grow your monopolistic advantage, can you survive? Tune into this week’s episode with Tom and Dylan
Fed Funds Rate: Keep It or Cancel It?
September 14, 2022 20:04 - 45 minutes - 103 MBHere we go again with another FED announcement! It's all over the news in all its hyped-up glory. Inflationary costs for every single product we use to live. From groceries to car loans. Does the FED price the markets, or are they just chasing the markets and then setting their interest rates accordingly? Dylan wants to know, but Tom is not giving him any slack. The market prices itself, not the FED. Tom and Dylan debate this topic and more on today's Truth or Skepticism.
Risk of the Big Idea
September 07, 2022 19:32 - 41 minutes - 57.5 MBIs there ever a time to make a big change? Equally important, is there ever a time to not make a big change? With big change comes big risk. On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan debate the risk of big changes at the wrong time, if such a thing exists. Are the risks and methodology for when to make big changes different for the private sector versus the public sector?
Asymmetric Opportunity and Outlier Risk
August 31, 2022 20:26 - 37 minutes - 52 MBFor many of us, it feels the world spins faster. Sure, a day still lasts 24 hours, but how much happens inside those 24 hours has increased. Therefore, it’s a fair question to ask, if we are doing more in the same period of time, are we open to more outlier risk? Or, is the rate of risk still the same but the magnitude of the risk has changed? On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss outlier risk, if it’s changed and how we can think about what those risks truly mean.
Temporary Solutions to Permanent Problems
August 24, 2022 19:13 - 42 minutes - 57.8 MBIs student loan forgiveness ultimately going to fall on taxpayers? One side of the aisle would have you believe so. What about when President Trump lowered taxes on wealthy individuals? That same side of the aisle was noticeably exuberant. The issue isn’t so much student loan forgiveness or tax cuts, the problem is a broken system that we fail to fix. We conveniently triage it during election cycles, but we refuse to make the fundamental changes needed. Tune into this week’s episode as Tom a...
We Found a Solution To The Economy's Biggest Threat
August 17, 2022 19:02 - 46 minutes - 63.5 MBWhen we think of engaged employees, we think of what makes a company successful. Its value is seen in terms of a positive. But when we lose engagement, what does that mean? How do you measure it? What is its cost? Zoom and remote work have undoubtedly hurt creativity in many instances, but it also kept companies going during a pandemic. We triaged the pandemic; however, there is a risk in making changes to accommodate the pandemic as a new normal. In this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discus...
Outcome Oriented Systems
August 10, 2022 19:39 - 39 minutes - 36 MBWarren Buffet pays less in taxes than his assistant. A kid in college that will go on to become an investment banker and a kid that will become a teacher pay the same amount for their education but their expected earnings are not remotely close. There is little or no financial incentive to fill the most important roles a society needs to improve itself. Is it a question of misplaced values on who makes what or is it a misaligned economic system that incents resources in the wrong direction? ...
Are Markets Moral?
August 03, 2022 19:17 - 48 minutes - 44.5 MBWe want to believe our morals lead the way. The truth, however, is when it comes to making money, we’re willing to sacrifice our morals in the name of returns. Taking a stance on moral issues, whether they be social, political, or something else seems straightforward enough. But what happens when that moral stance impedes our financial wellbeing? In this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss whether the ends justify the means. This is an episode you don’t want to miss!
Is Innovation A Byproduct of Money?
July 27, 2022 20:42 - 38 minutes - 53.4 MBTom and Dylan take the larger case for whether the financial systems in place are structurally sound, going all the way back to the housing and stock market crash of 2008 and 2009. Lending companies went unchecked giving people with poor credit, mortgages. Loans that predictability went into default. Instead of addressing the problem, the Fed flooded the markets with free money. Something that the markets enjoyed for 10 years. Tom disagrees because aside from what the Fed decides to do, mark...
Dollar Dollar Bills, Y'all
July 20, 2022 19:26 - 44 minutes - 61 MBThe U.S. dollar is trading incredibly strong relative to other currencies. Just recently, for the first time in twenty years, the dollar and the euro traded at parity. What is driving that? Has there been a fundamental and structural change in the world? Or, is it just an asset trading at an extreme? On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan debate what’s behind the dollar’s strength.
The Market Knows
July 13, 2022 20:23 - 40 minutes - 54.9 MBToday’s CPI number has everyone worrying about inflation and how high the Fed will raise rates when they meet later this month. But if you look at the bond market, interest rates have been coming down since the last Fed meeting. What accounts for the disconnect? Also this week, the implications of the Euro and U.S. dollar trading at parity for the first time in 20 years. Check out this week’s episode with Tom and Dylan.
The (In)Effectiveness of Sanctions
July 06, 2022 19:31 - 44 minutes - 60.9 MBWhat is the point of a sanction? Arguably, it’s to elicit a change in behavior via financial pain. Administrations throughout time have used sanctions with the most recent example being sanctions against Russia. However, instead of weakening Russia, the ruble is as strong as it’s been in 5 years. China and India have stepped in to fill the oil export gap left by Western Europe. Worldwide, oil prices are significantly contributing to inflation. So what is the point of sanctions if the country...
Exposing Holes For a More Stable Future
June 29, 2022 19:44 - 41 minutes - 56.9 MBWe’re undergoing a revolution of sorts. Between the after effects of an administration that clearly tried to subvert democracy and recent Supreme Court rulings that have added to polarization, we’re in the midst of a profound period in our nation’s history. Can we undergo such tests to our system and still maintain our leadership role in capital markets? It’s a fair question to ask at what point you may sacrifice markets because credibility is being tested. On this week’s episode, Tom and Dy...
Solving for Inflation
June 22, 2022 21:09 - 41 minutes - 56.6 MBInflation runs in cycles. At some point, it heats up and needs cooling until it cools too much and needs heating. How do we solve for that? The Fed reacts to historical data and makes rate adjustments after the fact. As a result, the Fed is always chasing its tail which keeps the same interest rates cycle problems from ever being solved. Maybe it’s time we start looking at inflation through a real-time lens and changing how we address inflation. Tom and Dylan discuss inflation and how it mig...
Culling the Crypto Herd
June 15, 2022 19:20 - 44 minutes - 61.6 MBCrypto asset prices have been crushed. Crypto based companies, like Coinbase, are being hurt in the process. Is the crash in crypto prices a result of bad companies and bad technologies? Or, was crypto a victim of a frothy market where desperate alpha seekers unfairly bid up prices beyond what was reasonable? Tom and Dylan discuss this, the Fed’s interest rate increase, and more on this week’s podcast.
Where are the Customer Yachts?
June 08, 2022 19:16 - 44 minutes - 61.5 MBIs the SEC about to take it too far? Probably, maybe, but being too restrictive on a free market system ultimately limits access to the self-directed investor. The problem is the big-name hedge fund managers and investment agencies are rarely in the game for the best interest for the customer. There is a misalignment of the service side versus the principal side. This problem remains largely unresolved to this day. Access needs to be realigned to even the playing field for regular Joe trader...
Is Higher Education Worth It?
June 01, 2022 19:25 - 40 minutes - 55.8 MBWe can debate the need to go to college and what the value derived is worth. On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan debate the cost of college and how to make it more affordable. Dylan advocates for education caps on the cost a school can charge. But what happens when the cost of running the school is less than what’s being charged? Instead, perhaps we can align the cost of an education with expected earnings. Tune in to hear Tom and Dylan take on this hot button issue.
Has the Stock Market Crashed?
May 25, 2022 19:18 - 41 minutes - 57.2 MBNo one can consistently time markets which is why buying low and selling high doesn’t work. It’s why investors are panicking now. They didn’t have the foresight to sell at the top or at least acknowledge markets can come down. Social media companies in particular have enjoyed a run of ever increasing valuations. Today, investors are panicking as to whether they should hold on or sell. What caused this and how does it end. Tune in to hear Tom and Dylan discuss.
Bull Market Hangover
May 18, 2022 19:22 - 36 minutes - 49.9 MBFor the last year plus, we’ve heard repeatedly about a Great Resignation. It seemed the power dynamics shifted from management and ownership to labor. Demand was so extreme that laborers could demand wages and/or accommodations that might not otherwise be able to request. But in the span of just the last couple weeks, the pendulum swung back away from labor. Whether it’s inflation or a loss of productivity, companies are back in the driver’s seat in their relationship with labor. Did laborer...
The End of Crypto?
May 11, 2022 20:29 - 48 minutes - 65.9 MBEquity markets are taking a beating taking crypto down with them. Is this the end of crypto or just growing pains? How do you look at the crypto segment of the market when valuations are being slashed violently? On this episode, Tom and Dylan discuss what’s going on in markets with a focus on crypto and crypto related stocks.
Market Outlook After Fed Rate Hike
May 04, 2022 19:58 - 40 minutes - 56 MBMarkets were expecting the Fed to raise interest rates 50 basis points today and that’s what they got. But for traders, the half point hike was a foregone conclusion. Did the Fed squander an opportunity? Are asset prices, which have been under pressure all year, still frothy? On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss the influence of the Fed relative to markets and current market prices relative to the economy.
Wealth Disparity
April 27, 2022 19:21 - 43 minutes - 14.8 MBThe old playbook was amass a lot of money through creating a successful business then spend it on houses, boats, planes or a sports team. But to the new and the wealthiest of the wealthy, that’s 20th century wealth. 21st century wealth is about creating rockets but even that’s not enough. So now the crown jewel of the wealthy is more esoteric and less tangible. It’s buying portions of the internet.
Ever-Changing Markets
April 20, 2022 19:39 - 45 minutes - 104 MBNothing lasts forever. Markets create behemoth companies but at some point, disruption comes along like a tsunami. Case in point, Netflix stock is down over 35% today. Is it over for Netflix? Probably not. But is it a sign the disruption is beginning? That’s probably a more legitimate concern. We never think things will change much until they do. Sometimes it takes a long time, like with Netflix. Other times it may happen more quickly, like the value of a Jack Dorsey tweet in the form of an ...
Trust Honesty Integrity
April 13, 2022 21:34 - 44 minutes - 101 MBLet’s begin with agreeing those willing to take risk are the people most likely to be rewarded. It should work that way. So long as that continues, there’s a positive drift to evolution and success. For those that take risk and succeed, there’s an inherent responsibility to honesty and integrity so that others can continue the positive drift. On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss this balancing act and how it can be good or taken advantage of.
Positive Drift Away
April 13, 2022 21:34 - 43 minutes - 100 MBLet’s begin with agreeing those willing to take risk are the people most likely to be rewarded. It should work that way. So long as that continues, there’s a positive drift to evolution and success. For those that take risk and succeed, there’s an inherent responsibility to honesty and integrity so that others can continue the positive drift. On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss this balancing act and how it can be good or taken advantage of.
Do "Financial Experts" Matter Anymore?
April 06, 2022 19:15 - 42 minutes - 98 MBWhat is the value of fundamental analysis? There was a time when domain expertise and an understanding of industries mattered. But as markets have evolved and become both more liquid and efficient, that domain expertise has lost value. In fact, if you side with Tom, you believe fundamental analysis only exists to protect against litigation. Is he right? Tune in and hear why Dylan pushes back on that idea.
Are Financial Markets Indestructible?
March 30, 2022 19:16 - 42 minutes - 98.1 MBThere is a massive humanitarian crisis taking place in Ukraine. Talk of World War III is rampant. Yet equity markets, which initially sold off, are not far off all time highs. The ruble seems to have regained 50% of the value it initially lost. Geopolitically, it’s tough to think of a worse time in the last 30 years. If you just look at markets though, you’d have no idea anything was wrong anywhere. What’s the reason behind that and is it sustainable? Tune in to hear Tom and Dylan debate thi...
Web 3.0
March 23, 2022 19:28 - 44 minutes - 101 MBDecentralized is arguably the biggest buzz word being tossed around right now. It’s what Web 3.0 is all about. We’re moving on from static data delivery and large companies crunching data to users owning their own data. It has implications in every facet of life, including finance, both in terms of infrastructure investments and the ways in which we will transact commerce in the future. How will this all shake out? Where does the Metaverse factor in? Dylan and Tom discuss this and more on thi...
Risk On?
March 16, 2022 19:15 - 43 minutes - 99.5 MBWhat happens when the collateral accepted by a bank against a loan losses its value? If you’re a European bank, it’s a question you have to be asking, especially if you’re been accepting Russian stocks as collateral. When we create money based on future expectations of value, we create risk. The risk is baked into the equation. But when the risk is greater than anyone anticipated, models fail and bad things can happen. Are European banks in danger because of the amount of Russian stock they’...
Risk On?
March 16, 2022 19:15What happens when the collateral accepted by a bank against a loan losses its value? If you’re a European bank, it’s a question you have to be asking, especially if you’re been accepting Russian stocks as collateral. When we create money based on future expectations of value, we create risk. The risk is baked into the equation. But when the risk is greater than anyone anticipated, models fail and bad things can happen. Are European banks in danger because of the amount of Russian stock they’v...
Don’t Hate the Player, Hate the Game
March 09, 2022 21:14 - 39 minutes - 91 MBNo one hated Michael Jordan for mastering basketball, other than the teams he dominated. Citadel did something similar in market making. They figured out how to make money buying retail customer orders. In the process, they reduced trading costs for retail traders. They improved markets. But they made the cardinal sin of making too much money and once you do that, we have a tendency to believe you must be doing something nefarious; like how Air Jordan’s made Michael jump higher. Maybe inst...
Financial Super Bomb
March 02, 2022 20:11 - 43 minutes - 99.3 MBRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a humanitarian crisis. No country wants to risk a nuclear holocaust by getting militarily involved. Instead, a nuclear financial bomb was dropped on Russia in the form of sanctions. By imposing those sanctions, crypto has been a beneficiary as it’s proven itself immune from geopolitics. What does this mean for the future? Did Russia ultimately give crypto the catalyst needed to move from speculative asset to currency? If so, will that also mean future ...
The Ukrainian Elephant in the Room
February 23, 2022 20:34 - 40 minutes - 92.6 MBDuring Covid, volatility futures peaked in the 80s. Today, with Russia on the precipice of invading Ukraine, volatility is 70 – 75% below those peaks. Does that mean the Russia/Ukraine situation is a lot to do about nothing? Or is the risk just easier to quantify? On this week’s episode, Tom and Dylan discuss the market implications of what’s taking place in Eastern Europe.