S1 EP 41: What Happened in Virginia and What Does It Mean for 2018?

In this episode, we examine the results of Tuesday’s elections in Virginia and around the country and explore how they may impact the 2018 midterms. We also dig into the results for local races here in Colorado.

Virginia Election Results

On Tuesday night, Democrats finally got the post-Trump wins they’ve been waiting for, in Virginia and around the country. As reporter Gabriel Debenedetti notes for Politico: “Democratic leaders reset their expectations for the 2018 midterms. They’re now expecting a fundraising and candidate recruitment surge, powered by grassroots fury at the Trump administration.” Whether that surge materializes around the country remains to be seen. Mollie Hemingway at The Federalist has 5 Takeaways on Virginia’s Election Sweep for Democrats, pointing to the stark difference between Gillespie’s performance this year – 9 point loss – and his 2014 Senate race where he lost by less than a percentage point to Mark Warner. There are a few plausible explanations, but the simple fact is that it was a crushing loss for Gillespie. Still, Hillary Clinton did win Virginia in 2016, and so the top of the ticket isn’t the best place to see what’s been described as a Democratic “tsunami”. The real groundbreaking developments were in the Virginia House of Delegates, where Democrats turned a 66-34 Republican advantage into a tight battle for control that will come down to recounts. They were able to make such huge gains by focusing particularly on Northern Virginia districts where Hillary Clinton won last year. Of the 20 State House seats that saw significant changes from their 2015 results, 12 are located in Northern Virginia, and Democrats were able to flip 9 of them while putting one normally closely contested district comfortably out of reach. They also made gains in the Richmond suburbs (3 seats), Virginia Beach (2 seats), and one high profile race in the Blacksburg area. [We’ll post a spreadsheet breaking down results in these 20 seats along with our show notes]. This success didn’t happen overnight, and comes as the result of Democrats finally focusing on down ballot races in Virginia in a manner that they hope to replicate across the country during next year’s midterms. What does it mean for Republicans? Virginia Republican Party Chairman John Whitbeck acknowledged that was a “terrible night”:

“Virginia has changed and is changing…68 percent of voters under the age of 45 voted Democrat. Minority populations continue to climb as a percent of Virginia’s population and…our nominees lost non-white voters 80 percent to 20 percent. If we do not find a way to appeal to these two groups, the results will be grim.”

While also blaming the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate: “If no major items are passed in the U.S. Senate over the next year, the 2017 elections will be a preview of 2018 elections”.

Colorado Election Results

While there were no high profile statewide issues here in Colorado, local races provided plenty of intrigue. The races for Douglas County School Board, which has been in a prolonged court battle after pushing for a school voucher program, provided a resounding message against the conservative slate, as each conservative candidate lost by at least 15 percentage points. It is the latest show of local activism against a divisive school board here in Colorado. Voters in Broomfield passed Question 301, which gives the city more oversight over oil and gas operations, by a comfortable 15-point margin. The campaign attracted nearly $400,000 in outside money, and a battle over the legality of Question 301 is inevitable. Voters throughout El Paso County and in Colorado Springs passed several ballot issues and tax increases for everything from schools and firefighters to widening the I-25 gap and upgrading the stormwater infrastructure in Colorado Springs. As the Colorado Springs Gazette editorial notes: “The results prove taxpayers are confident in the regions’ economic future and are satisfied with political leadership.”