S1 EP 31: An Analysis of the 2018 Senate Battleground Districts in Colorado

In this episode, we look ahead to 2018 at key State Senate districts in Colorado, and provide insight into how we view the fundamental demographics and the true competitiveness of each district.

Key State Senate Districts

Senate District 3 - Democrat Leroy Garcia won this Pueblo district with just under 55% of the vote in 2014. He defeated Republican George Rivera, who had replaced Angela Giron in the 2013 recall election following her support of new gun control legislation. Interestingly, Senator Garcia voted with Senate Republicans this past session on a bill that would have repealed the one piece of that gun control legislation – the limit on the size of ammunition magazines. Senate District 5 – Democrat Kerry Donovan won this mountain-based district with 49% of the vote in 2014, defeating Republican Don Suppes by 1,300 votes in a race where a Libertarian candidate also received 2,374 votes. Senator Donovan also voted with Senate Republicans on the magazine limit repeal, and she has also championed efforts to gain funding for rural broadband and to establish every third Saturday in May as a permanent state holiday: Public Lands Day. Senate District 11 – Democrat Michael Merrifield won this El Paso County district with 52% of the vote in 2014, defeating Republican Bernie Herpin (the other incumbent senator who was elected during the 2013 recall elections). Merrifield has been described as “Colorado’s own Bernie Sanders” and describes Sanders as an inspiration. Though critical of “Denver-centric” Democrats in calling for a more progressive, populist voice, Merrifield is also the Minority Whip in the Senate and a very reliable Democratic vote. Senate District 16 – Republican Tim Neville won this suburban district with 51% of the vote in 2014, defeating incumbent Democrat Jeanne Nicholson. Those who follow Colorado politics will already be familiar with Neville – he ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate last year and is a reliable conservative vote in the State Senate. Neville was one of the three Republican votes on the Senate Finance Committee who voted to kill House Bill 1242 which would have asked voters to pass a .5 percent sales tax increase to go toward transportation projects. Senate District 20 – Term-limited Democrat Cheri Jahn won this Jefferson County district with 47% of the vote over Republican Larry Queen, with a Libertarian candidate receiving 7% of the vote. Jahn is perhaps the most centrist among Senate Democrats, often siding with her Republican colleagues on business issues. District 20 is clearly one of the better chances for Republicans to pick up a seat in 2018. Senate District 22 – Term-limited Democrat Andy Kerr won this Jefferson County district with 51% of the vote in 2014 over Republican Tony Sanchez. With the margin of victory at just 1,336 votes, this is another district where, with the right candidate, Republicans could potentially seize an opportunity. Senate District 24 – Republican Beth Martinez-Humenik won this Adams County district with 51% of the vote in 2014. As detailed here by Marianne Goodland at The Colorado Independent, Martinez-Humenik has emerged as a centrist voice within the Senate Republican caucus, voting with Democrats to kill an anti-abortion bill, among others. Still, the fact that there will be a Democratic Primary in District 24 next year, which will include State Rep. Faith Winter, shows that Democrats sense an opportunity to gain a seat here.