Saxo Market Call
1,116 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 101 ratingsThe Saxo strategy team delivers insights and opinions about financial markets three times a week.
Monday’s episode will focus on the events that have unfolded in the past week and what you should pay attention to in the coming week.
Tuesday’s episode will focus on equities both in terms of performance and other relevant developments.
Thursday’s episode will focus more narrowly on a specific topic, which can be everything from earning seasons, to yield curves and oil prices.
The podcast will feature a wide array of Saxo’s financial experts.
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Episodes
Special Edition: Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions 2024
December 05, 2023 14:00 - 30 minutes - 23.9 MBLink to our publication -> Outrageous Predictions 2024: The end of the road It is the time of year when Saxo releases its Outrageous Predictions. For 2024 our Outrageous Predictions are titled The end of the road building on the idea, that the world is set for a very different journey than the calm environment post the pandemic with little geopolitical risks, stable technology backdrop, low inflation, and low interest rates. Three our outrageous predictions are 1) With oil at $150, Saudis b...
Macro and FX: Key macro data this week, the USD slide ended and gold is on the move
December 04, 2023 09:00 - 16 minutes - 11.5 MBLast week's backdrop was shaped by Fed Waller's comments about rate hikes had ended and the market got into overdrive mode on those comments and soft inflation figures repricing bond yields lower across the curve. This week will be interesting with key macro figures across JOTLS job opening ISM Services tomorrow and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. The USD also finally turned around last week and gold spot was also reacting forcefully to the lower bond yields. Finally, with RBA rate decision comi...
Commodities: Mixed performance as peak rates gather momentum
November 30, 2023 14:00 - 15 minutes - 11.1 MBOil markets await the upcoming OPEC decision with the expectation to another production cut to bolster favourable conditions for oil markets. We also discuss the diverging performance across many commodities in November including coffee up 8% and US natural gas down 25% as the peak rate narrative sets in, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Equities: Dangerous index concentration, cyber security stocks, and the wisdom of Charlie Munger
November 29, 2023 14:00 - 19 minutes - 15.9 MBToday we reflect on the meteoric rise in the index weights of mega caps as a function of the generative AI hype this year pushing S&P 500 index concentration to the highest recorded since 1991. The cyber security is a super interesting industry for many reasons that we go through in addition to our reflections on CrowdStrike earnings. Finally, we discuss the wisdom of the now late Charlie Munger and the influence he had on Warren Buffett and some of his key opinions on investing and why he d...
Fixed-income: Biggest rally in US 10-year Treasuries since August 2011
November 28, 2023 14:00 - 13 minutes - 10.5 MBToday we talk about government bond markets and whether market expectations are getting a bit ahead of themselves. Especially, the rally in UK Gilts market could be unsustainable given the underlying inflation and likely more fiscal stimulus next year. We also discuss yesterday's conflicting messages around ECB policy and the upcoming Eurozone CPIP report on Thursday. Finally, we discuss the US Treasury market that has rallied the most since August 2011 with the 10-year yield declining 60 bp...
Macro and FX: Inflation week, PMI test in China, and USDJPY
November 27, 2023 09:00 - 15 minutes - 11 MBAfter last week's quiet backdrop due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week will drum up more energy with important inflation reports from the US, Eurozone, and Australia which will be important for the direction of the USD that have found itself increasingly in negative momentum. China has had so many false starts this year and this week we will get another PMI report that will show whether the recent stimulus actions by the Chinese government is moving economic activity. Finally, we talk...
Commodities: Will Santa deliver another golden gift?
November 23, 2023 14:00 - 16 minutes - 12.8 MBToday we talk about the possibility of another Santa rally in gold and silver. The previous six years have had a strong December in those two precious metals - is the setup right again this year? The oil market is nervous with a tricky supply and demand situation with traders awaiting OPEC's next move. For all the weakness in China, Copper is still holding up pretty well and the recent moves from the Chinese government to support real estate developers and the economy could turn things aroun...
Equities: Nvidia growth bonanza, earnings estimates, and the surge in nuclear power theme
November 22, 2023 13:31 - 12 minutes - 10.4 MBWe discuss four topics today. Nvidia's earnings were incredible strong blasting estimates but US export controls are upsetting and lowering the visibility of its Chinese business. The US economy is still expanding but slowing down while earnings estimates are coming down in Europe and S&P 500 (ex. technology sector) which are at odds with a rallying equity market. Across equity themes the green transformation baskets are still under pressure while nuclear power and commodities are doing well...
Fixed-income: What is fiscal dominance and why is it important?
November 21, 2023 14:13 - 20 minutes - 15.1 MBToday's episode is about a concept called fiscal dominance which is when the fiscal policies begin to dominate the monetary policy. Under conditions of high debt levels and rising interest rates it can create a negative feedback loop in inflation and interest rates potentially leading to sustained negative real rates and fiscal repression. We also talk about yesterday's 20-year Treasury auction and how the market response might indicate that the market is pricing in a slightly more hawkish F...
Macro and FX: Fed pivot hopes as USD continues to slide
November 20, 2023 09:06 - 17 minutes - 12.1 MBThe USD continues to weaken with the market betting on a Fed pivot as inflation cooled more than expected last week and more indicators are suggesting the US economy is slowing down. We also cover FOMC Minutes, initial jobless claims, and Black Friday. In Europe, this week is going to be a key test of the turnaround narrative with fresh PMI figures and IFO survey, while we also keeping an eye on UK budget and Riksbank. Finally, in Asia FX traders should have a focus on RBA Minutes and the st...
Commodities: Silver comeback, watch OPEC as crude oil slides lower
November 16, 2023 14:23 - 16 minutes - 12.4 MBIn today’s commodities focused podcast we explain what has driven the sudden comeback for semi industrial metals, such as silver and platinum. The current negative momentum in crude oil carrying the risk of an overshoot to the downside ahead of the November 26 OPEC meeting. Finally a look at realized gross roll yields in commodities, which sectors are contributing the most and how returns compare with recent history. With Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates fro...
Equities: Year-end rally, inflation, thematic winners, US consumer and Nvidia monster earnings
November 15, 2023 14:08 - 16 minutes - 13.1 MBToday we discuss yesterday's small positive surprise on US October inflation that sent bond and equities soaring with Nasdaq 100 on a trajectory to set a new closing high for the year. We also go through which equity themes responded the most positive to lower interest rates, and also the recent reading on the US consumer based on earnings results from Target and Home Depot. Finally, we go over recent earnings and the most important earnings to watch over the next week including the importan...
Options: How to take advantage of options
November 15, 2023 03:00 - 20 minutes - 14.9 MBToday we discuss options and how investors and traders can use them. We go through an example on getting long exposure to Novo Nordisk, alternative entry strategies selling in-the-money puts, creating recurring income from selling covered call options on stocks in the portfolio, zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options, and finally how maybe not to use options around earnings releases, with Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStra...
Fixed-income: Inflation expectations, views on yields, and Moody’s US rating outlook
November 14, 2023 14:00 - 17 minutes - 13.1 MBWhile today's US inflation report will move markets and be important the longer term importance will come from inflation expectations which are all on the rise. In today's podcast we also talk about our views on bond yields given the market's pricing of the Fed Funds Rate a couple of years out and why we still like the barbell strategy. Finally, we discuss Moody's change of the US rating outlook from stable to negative over the weekend and why it matters for credit bonds from Microsoft and J...
Commodities: Crude oil capitulation, the floor in gold, and roaring softs
November 09, 2023 13:00 - 16 minutes - 12 MBIn today's episode we discuss the recent plunge in crude oil which is definitely not part of the OPEC+ plan, the correction in gold following a strong period for equities, and finally we talk about the roaring prices in soft commodities due to extreme weather patterns, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Equities: EVs and oil demand, Recession or not, Adyen Investor Day
November 08, 2023 14:00 - 17 minutes - 14 MBToday we discuss 1) battery electric vehicles deliveries in Q3 and how it relates to Brent crude being down 18% from its recent peak, 2) is a recession finally coming after great delay? and 3) the Adyen Investor Day tonight European time as an important event for the payments industry, with Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Fixed-income: The present opportunities in corporate bonds
November 07, 2023 14:29 - 18 minutes - 14.1 MBIn today's episode we talk about corporate bonds in USD and EUR taking a look at the historically high bond yields and investment grade vs high-yield spread. We also take a look at performance across the different corporate bond segments and zoom in on some individual names such as Leonardo and 3M, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Macro and FX: Weaker USD, China data, and RBA rate decision
November 06, 2023 08:56 - 17 minutes - 12.2 MBIn today's podcast we discuss the weaker USD on the back of the big risk-on move across markets last week, and whether the lower long-end US bond yields in fact cancel out a bit of Powell's remarks last week. We also discuss Bank of Japan and JPY, China data this week and the lack of growth revive, and finally tomorrow RBA rate decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to ...
Commodities: Special edition with WisdomTree
November 03, 2023 10:42 - 43 minutes - 29.8 MBIn this week's extended commodity focused podcast we welcome Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at WisdomTree, Europe's largest commodity ETP provider. First we discuss the pros and cons of investing in commodity ETPs vs companies, and what to be aware of. We move on to having a broad discussion about the outlook for key commodities. Nitesh gives his view on China and why he is cautiously optimistic about the demand outlook. Also the green arms race and its impact on transition metals...
Equities: Key earnings, green transformation meltdown, and Q3 earnings status
November 01, 2023 14:46 - 17 minutes - 12.6 MBToday we discuss three things. Earnings expected tomorrow from Apple, Novo Nordisk, and Fortinet. The green transformation meltdown that just continues every month with Orsted as the key example today down 16%. Finally, we discuss the earnings season and the surprises from US technology and European companies, with Oskar Bernhardtsen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Sa...
Fixed-income: A barbell strategy and three central banks
October 31, 2023 14:01 - 17 minutes - 13.2 MBToday we talk about the three major central bank rate decisions this week (BoJ, Fed, and BoE) and how the bond market is pricing policy rate trajectory long-term in the US and Europe. we also explain the barbell strategy as one way to approach the bond market these days, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Macro and FX: Will BoJ allow government bond yields to rise further?
October 30, 2023 14:38 - 17 minutes - 12.3 MBIt is a big week for central banks with rate decisions from Bank of Japan, the Fed, and Bank of England. In all cases, the central banks are expected make no changes to their policy rate, but Bank of Japan might tweak their yield-curve-control allowing the Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%; the ceiling on Japanese bond yields was raised back in July by 0.5%-points. We also talk about the UK economy where inflation is still running hot, Eurozone inflation figures, and lastly th...
Commodities: Gold defies rising bond yields, but why?
October 26, 2023 11:59 - 15 minutes - 12 MBToday we talk about rising gold prices despite rising yields in a move that smells of investors seeking hedging for a financial system in which something could soon break due to rising bond yields. We also talk about the oil market and how it is perceiving supply disruptions amid the escalating war between Hamas and Israel. Finally, we touch on the strong gains in soft commodities such as orange juice, cocoa touching a 44-year high, and sugar touching a 12-year high, with Peter Garnry and Ol...
Equities: Q3 earnings, China restart, and the robust economy
October 25, 2023 13:07 - 15 minutes - 12.5 MBToday we discuss the Q3 earnings season and in particularly earnings yesterday from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) with Microsoft being the big winner according to investors as the cloud business grew faster than estimated at 24% y/y while Google's cloud business disappointed. On a positive note, advertising revenue growth from both Google and Snap suggest that companies remain positive on their outlook for the economy. In China, Xi Jinping visited the PBoC for the first during his leadersh...
Fixed-income: ECB pause, Treasury auctions, and yield curve positioning
October 24, 2023 13:00 - 18 minutes - 14.2 MBThe ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yield-curve-control and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the ECB is in pause mode it it not a pleasant one. We also discuss this week's Treasury auctions for clues about positioning of bond investors on the yield curve and with...
Macro and FX: USD strength to get tested
October 23, 2023 08:00 - 17 minutes - 12.1 MBThe US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also discuss carry trades in CHF and MXN, and the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday which is expected to be a non-event. UK jobs report is out tomorrow ahead of next week's BoE meeting. Finally, we talk about the Australian economy and the upcoming ...
Commodities: Gold likes peak rates and is the oil market running out of steam?
October 12, 2023 13:00 - 18 minutes - 13.4 MBFalling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have also pushed the oil market into a more volatile situation but still limited upside from here due to spare production capacity. In natural gas we of course discuss the latest developments including the leak on the Baltic natural gas pipeline, and...
Equities: Is the mojo back? Novo Nordisk keeps surprising and Tesla earnings showdown
October 11, 2023 13:09 - 19 minutes - 14.6 MBA lot of action has come back in equities with the latest move lower in the US 10-year yield following geopolitical events in the Middle East pushing equities higher again. We also debate the 'higher for longer' narrative and whether the backdrop for equities is actually okay given the US economic strength. We also talk about Novo Nordisk that again has released another very positive trial data now related to kidney failure sending its shares higher while the world's largest dialysis provide...
Fixed-income: The uptrend in bond yields remains, watch our for the BTP-Bund spread
October 10, 2023 13:00 - 15 minutes - 12 MBThe US bond market reaction to events in Israel over the weekend was delayed because of yesterday's closed US markets, but today bond trading has resumed and the initial reaction was lower bond yields. However, the longer end US bond yields have already come back higher again so the uptrend in bond yields remain intact. In today's episode we reiterate our call for staying in the short end of the yield curve or short-term high quality investment grade corporate bonds. Finally, we talk about t...
Macro and FX: Potentially a defining moment in the Middle East
October 09, 2023 08:11 - 16 minutes - 11.7 MBWe are coming into this new week after a horrible weekend with geopolitical risks rising after Hamas' attack on Israel. The initial market reaction has been equities lower (-0.6%), Brent crude higher (+3.3%), gold and USD spot are also bid. But the medium term outcome both across markets and geopolitics will come down to how Israel responses as the spotlight is pointing at Iran as a supporting actor in Hamas' planning. In any case, the weekend's attacks could be a defining moment for the Mid...
Equities: Mike Tyson moment, Birkenstock IPO, Q3 earnings in focus
October 04, 2023 13:00 - 18 minutes - 13 MBWe are back with another episode on equities and with US bond yields galloping higher equities are under pressure. We talk about ways investors can reduce risk and what sectors or themes make sense under the pressure from higher interest rates. Then we talk about the Birkenstock IPO scheduled for pricing on Tuesday and first day of trading on Wednesday. The valuation of Birkenstock has actually gone up since the roadshow started as investors are recognising the strong brand and the upside po...
Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets
October 04, 2023 08:20 - 12 minutes - 8.76 MBToday features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world). This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creating a significant danger moment for markets. Investors should move to protect their portfolios. Here is a chart deck supporting some key points from the podcast and more. The Saxo Q4 Quarterly Outlook.
Fixed-income: Keep it short if you think about bonds
October 03, 2023 13:00 - 16 minutes - 12 MBWe back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short duration bonds across inflation-linkers, corporate quality and safe-haven due to uncertainty over timing of 'peak rates' and the outlook for a potential stagflation, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read daily in-depth market updates from the S...
Fixed-income: How much higher can bond yields go?
September 26, 2023 13:00 - 16 minutes - 13.1 MBIn today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data continues to look solid then the US 10-year yield could reach the 5-5.25%. In the case of weakening economic data and lower inflation the narrative in bonds could quickly turn on its head. We also talk about timing and bond carry to understand th...
Macro and FX: Can the higher for longer narrative continue?
September 25, 2023 08:11 - 18 minutes - 13 MBLast week ended with both equities and bonds lower following the Fed's hawkish message with rates staying higher for longer to deal with inflation and the strong economy which lifted the longer end of the US yield curve. This week key event risks to monitor are the UAW wage negotiations, gasoline prices and more jitter around a potential US government shutdown. US consumer confidence figures tomorrow are also key to track and on Friday the market will get the latest PCE inflation data. Acros...
Commodities: What does a Fed soft landing mean for commodities?
September 21, 2023 13:00 - 17 minutes - 12.8 MBIn today's podcast on commodities we discuss the FOMC rate decision and what the Fed's soft landing outlook means for commodities. We discuss everything from the opportunities in gold as a hedge against monetary policy mistakes, tightness in energy markets, downside pressure in copper due to rising copper inventories, and recent developments in the agriculture sector, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strat...
Equities: Red flags in IPOs, low volatility in US equities, and earnings to watch
September 20, 2023 13:00 - 15 minutes - 12 MBWith the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is three times that of the Nasdaq 100. Realized volatility has lately been very low in the US equity market and investors might begin considering adding some hedges to their portfolio which can be done in different ways, and finally we discuss the thre...
Fixed-income: The US 10-year yield is on the loose
September 19, 2023 13:00 - 15 minutes - 11.9 MBThe US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk about interest rates in Europe and why higher bond yields in Europe are sending a different signal than in the US, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Stra...
Macro and FX: Central banks bonanza this week
September 18, 2023 08:37 - 17 minutes - 12.4 MBA big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landscape is getting increasingly difficult for central banks with the recent run-up in energy prices across both oil markets and uranium lifting inflation expectations and bond yields. In this podcast, we talk about the evolving economic landscape in ...
Commodities: Oil rally raises stagflation risks and yuan’s correlation to copper
September 14, 2023 13:00 - 17 minutes - 12.7 MBBrent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been supported by China's efforts to strengthen the yuan. We also talk about how copper is still structurally attractive giving the ongoing electrification, EV adoption and China stimulus. Finally, we go through the key movers in the Bloomberg Commodity In...
Equities: Energy on the move, Europe’s ”EV war” with China, and FedEx earnings
September 13, 2023 13:00 - 15 minutes - 12 MBOil prices are moving higher on Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts. This is naturally adding tailwinds to energy stocks which are quickly catching up with the rest of the global equity market. We discuss energy stocks and their attractive valuations. The market for electric vehicles is being flooded with cheap Chinese EVs to a degree where the EU is now launching an investigation into Chinese subsidies for EVs lifting European carmakers and surpressing Chinese EV-makers. Finally, we talk abo...
Fixed-income: A hawkish pause from ECB and attractive risk-reward in bonds
September 12, 2023 13:00 - 16 minutes - 11.7 MBIn today's podcast on fixed-income we preview the ECB rate decision on Thursday on the back of a recent stagflation outlook from the EU Commission making the policy decision a difficult one. We argue for a hawkish pause with the potential move by the ECB to stop reinvestments into the PEPP facility. Based on a slowing economy and stagflation light outlook we go through why both European and US sovereign bonds have an attractive risk-reward ratio, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi. Read ...
Macro and FX: King Dollar, pressures on China, and will ECB hike?
September 11, 2023 03:00 - 18 minutes - 13.5 MBIn today's podcast on macro and FX we discuss the ongoing strength of USD which is a function of relative weakness in Europe and China, and to what extent the US inflation report on Wednesday will impact the USD trade. China has been in focus a lot lately as its real estate sector is in a deep crisis, but last week a ban of Apple's iPhones brought geopolitics back into focus. We also discuss what China's next potential policy move is to offset the recent weakness and how we should think abou...
Commodities: Crude’s artificial tightness, uranium and gold in focus
September 07, 2023 13:00 - 17 minutes - 12.8 MBIn today's podcast on commodities with discuss the recent rise in oil prices driven by an artificial tightness and what it means for the oil industry but also the economy. Our nuclear power equity theme basket was the performance winner August and today we discuss the underlying drivers for uranium and the nuclear power industry, and finally we touch on gold and silver on which we are patiently bullish given our stagflation call, with Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen. Read daily in-depth mark...
Equities: EV ecosystem, Adobe earnings, and AI washing
September 06, 2023 13:00 - 16 minutes - 12 MBIn today's podcast on equities we talk about the growing electric vehicles ecosystem of recycling and charging, Adobe's earnings Thursday next week which will be important for sentiment on AI-related stocks, and finally we talk about next week's IPO of Arm and whether this is potentially "AI washing", with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Fixed-income: Peak rates and the impacts
September 05, 2023 13:00 - 16 minutes - 12.6 MBIn today's fixed income focused podcast we take a closer look at recent developments, especially the emerging focus on peak rates and its potential impact on yields and short-term rates. Also what are corporate bonds telling us, and finally we explain how the COT report for fixed income futures works and what drives the current record speculative short positions w/ Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen standing in for Althea Spinozzi Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and...
Macro and FX: Could soft landing hopes slow down USD rally?
September 04, 2023 08:00 - 15 minutes - 11.1 MBFirst episode in our new podcast format with Charu Chanana talking about macroeconomic topics and currencies. We talk about Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures underpinning the soft landing narrative ahead of potential stagflation concerns later this year. We also talk about the USD rally and whether it could end with strength going into the direction of CNH and JPY. Finally, we discuss the central meeting this week from RBA (tomorrow) and Bank of Canada (Wednesday) which have very different t...
Will US jobs report extend current momentum?
September 01, 2023 08:42 - 18 minutes - 14.2 MBLink to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L6i4WN - Markets are calm ahead of today's US August Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to show continuous job gains in the US economy. In today's podcast we discuss the positive week in global equities led by technology stocks, potential turnaround in the US fiscal impulse, galloping prices on rice and orange juice, and a stronger Chinese yuan as recent policy moves have strengthened the currency. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on co...
’Peak rates’ narrative continues to underpin momentum
August 31, 2023 08:31 - 16 minutes - 12.8 MBLink to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3q2zG - Momentum in equities is extending as 'peak rates' narrative gets stronger amid weakening macro data suggesting that tighter monetary policies are beginning to have an impact on the economy. We expect the ECB to go into a hawkish pause mode on policy rates and this thinking has got the market to bid up EURUSD in recent trading days. Momentum in gold is also responding well in recent weeks to the 'peak narrative' and elsewhere in commodities coco...
Bad news is good news, or so the market thinks
August 30, 2023 07:43 - 10 minutes - 8.36 MBLink to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3UV7k - Bad news was good news yesterday as significantly weaker than estimated US August consumer confidence and July JOLTS jobs opening pushed the US 10-year yield lower lifting equities, and especially the cyclical sectors such as semiconductors and carmakers. In currencies, the AUD is seeing the strongest bid and in commodity markets crude oil is still supported by tight markets. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Read d...