#273 – Chris Blattman: War and Violence

Artificial Intelligence Podcast

Podcast Notes Key Takeaways Long prolonged war is hardly ever positive-sum; the costs almost always outweigh the implied justice“Fighting is just politics by other means–inefficient, devastating, and costly means.” – Chris Blattman“War is the violence that doesn’t make sense” – Chris BlattmanWar is a breakdown of reason – everybody loses something from war and there’s usually a better and more efficient solutionWar is rare and history shows we’re pretty successful at avoiding it–but that’s not how history is taughtWe overemphasize the anecdotal and don’t look at the objective data–usually to fuel the warmonger narrative, which is driven by one of the five root causes of war (below)Both Russia and Ukraine have incentives to bluff, which can result in many short-term conflicts but also affect long-term compromise/appeasement“If you bluff and lose, it’s not because you miscalculated. You made an optimal choice given the uncertainty of the situation to take a gamble–that’s a wiser thing for you to do than to not bluff.” – Chris BlattmanThis call and bluff dynamic could end up with Russia getting what they originally were asking for from Ukraine–but only after incurring unnecessary costs“There’s a reason for every war and a war for every reason” – The five roots of war:Unchecked leaders: leaders do not bear the majority of costs or have a private incentive (Chris believes this is the fundamental cause of most violence in the world)Uncertainty: when the opposing group’s strength or intentions are ambiguous, war seems like an appropriate risk to combat uncertaintyCommitment problems: some circumstances give one side an irresistible incentive to risk warIntangible incentives: intransigence for ideologies, choosing war rather than changing your viewMisperceptions: miscalculating the complexity of the enemy or yourselves

Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org

Chris Blattman is a professor at the University of Chicago studying the causes and consequences of violence and war. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Truebill: https://truebill.com/lex – Mizzen+Main: https://mizzenandmain.com and use code LEX to get $35 off – Grammarly: https://grammarly.com/lex to get 20% off premium – Indeed: https://indeed.com/lex to get $75 credit – Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex and use code LEX to get special savings EPISODE LINKS: Chris’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/cblatts Chris’s Website: https://chrisblattman.com Why We Fight (book): https://amzn.to/3702fjb PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: