Coronavirus Updates: Estimating R0, Serology, and Bayes' Theorem

Physical Attraction

English - April 15, 2020 17:40 - 33 minutes - 24.9 MB - ★★★★★ - 75 ratings
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Previous Episode: Technology, Inequality, and Catastrophic Risks III: How technology can fuel inequality

Next Episode: Coronavirus Updates: Modelling, Uncertainties, and Antivirals

The first of a few quick episodes where I continue going into coronavirus therapy by ranting on to you about all of the things I've learned about the current epidemic... with references to scientific papers so you can read them and find out how wrong I was.

We discuss:

Estimates for the rate of disease progression in different countries Results from the early serology (antibody) tests of the virus (sadly still thin on the ground) Why Bayes' theorem means that the accuracy of antibody tests is so important