Old Bull
127 episodes - English - Latest episode: over 2 years ago - ★★★★★ - 38 ratingsFrom American Civics Exchange, Flip Pidot hosts your insider's guide to political prediction markets.
Video versions of most shows available at OldBull.tv.
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
The Art of the Possible: UK (with Keiran Pedley)
June 20, 2020 22:53 - 33 minutes - 30.3 MBSarbjit and Matthew are joined by Ipsos MORI pollster Keiran Pedley to discuss whether new UK Labour Leader Keir Starmer may be able to ride his record-high approval ratings to electoral victory. Also on the agenda: Is there room for a durable 4th party in UK politics? What would the balance of power look like if Scotland were to exit? And just how generic a Democrat is Joe Biden? Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of...
The Art of the Possible: UK
June 20, 2020 22:53 - 33 minutes - 30.3 MBSarbjit and Matthew are joined by Ipsos MORI pollster Keiran Pedley to discuss whether new UK Labour Leader Keir Starmer may be able to ride his record-high approval ratings to electoral victory. Also on the agenda: Is there room for a durable 4th party in UK politics? What would the balance of power look like if Scotland were to exit? And just how generic a Democrat is Joe Biden? Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of...
The Map Room: Land of 10,000 Hot Takes
June 20, 2020 14:04 - 37 minutes - 51.5 MBVideo version here. Minnesota is a political odd duck. It hasn't gone to a Republican presidential candidate since Nixon, yet it swung slightly to the right of the country in 2016 for the first time since the 1950s. It's not quite a swing state yet, but it features the nation's only split state legislature and a surprising number of competitive Congressional seats. As the home state of one of the 2020 Democratic presidential finalists, now a focal point of civil unrest, and going forward...
Beginner's Guide to Political Trading
June 16, 2020 19:39 - 39 minutes - 54 MBVideo version here. In a special crossover episode, OldBull.tv and Star Spangled Gamblers offer up a comprehensive quickstart guide for the aspiring political trader. You'll learn: - What political prediction markets are - How to interpret market prices - Avoiding rookie mistakes like ideological investing and long-shot bias - The best (and worst) sources market analysis - How to arbitrage market inefficiency using "negative risk" - Whether or not you should read a market's rules Email u...
The Art of the Possible: France
June 13, 2020 21:04 - 25 minutes - 23.1 MBSarbjit and Matthew bring in Chris Terry from the University of Manchester to discuss the upcoming French presidential election and the impact of comedians and coronavirus (among other things). Also on the agenda: Which European leader is the favorite to be next ousted from office? Parliamentary redistricting in the UK. What's the deal with the Isle of Wight? Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at L...
The Art of the Possible: France (with Chris Terry)
June 13, 2020 21:04 - 25 minutes - 64.5 MBSarbjit and Matthew bring in Chris Terry from the University of Manchester to discuss the upcoming French presidential election and the impact of comedians and coronavirus (among other things). Also on the agenda: Which European leader is the favorite to be next ousted from office? Parliamentary redistricting in the UK. What's the deal with the Isle of Wight? Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at L...
The Map Room: Bayesing Arizona
June 11, 2020 16:16 - 44 minutes - 60.6 MBVideo version here. Eric, Jared and Nick head west to explore the potential presidential tipping state of Arizona. Can Trump keep the Copper State in his column? Does appointed incumbent Senator Martha McSally stand a chance against Mark Kelly? And what does the state's ongoing demographic shift mean for its electoral future? Follow your hosts on Twitter: Eric: @decunningham2 Jared: @jstonepolitics Nick: @tossupreport Email us at [email protected]. All content and opinions presented her...
New Shows, Same Old Bull
June 05, 2020 23:21 - 3 minutes - 4.19 MBVideo version at: https://youtu.be/sRYXJeQLg4Y Get to know the lineup of new shows and podcasts we're rolling out. Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv Email us at [email protected]. Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com) License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advi...
The Art of the Possible: Germany
June 05, 2020 13:42 - 32 minutes - 29.9 MBThis week, Sarbjit and Matthew are joined by Jon Worth (jonworth.eu) to bring you a crash course in German politics - how their parties compare ideologically with the rest of Europe and the U.S., the impacts of coronavirus on the upcoming party leadership elections and 2021's federal election, and whether there's any chance Merkel stays in office. Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes @shadsy...
The Art of the Possible: Germany (with Jon Worth)
June 05, 2020 13:42 - 32 minutes - 29.9 MBThis week, Sarbjit and Matthew are joined by Jon Worth (jonworth.eu) to bring you a crash course in German politics - how their parties compare ideologically with the rest of Europe and the U.S., the impacts of coronavirus on the upcoming party leadership elections and 2021's federal election, and whether there's any chance Merkel stays in office. Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes @shadsy...
The Map Room: The Sunshine State
June 01, 2020 13:13 - 47 minutes - 65.3 MBVideo version at: https://youtu.be/OJJFp7MNWS8 Eric, Jared and Nick lead you on a tour from the Panhandle to the Everglades, to show how Florida might really play out in 2020. Follow your hosts on Twitter: Eric: www.twitter.com/decunningham2 Jared: www.twitter.com/jstonepolitics Nick: www.twitter.com/tossupreport Email us at [email protected]. All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as inves...
The Art of the Possible
May 30, 2020 15:27 - 15 minutes - 14 MBWelcome to The Art of the Possible, a brand new podcast from Old Bull TV focused on political forecasting from the perspective of European prediction market operators and professional bookmakers. In this pilot episode: Trump vs. Biden! Your hosts: Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets @sarbjit_pol Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes @shadsy Be sure to subscribe to the show, please consider leaving us a favorable ratings and reviews, and check out our...
Old Bull Presents: The Map Room
May 26, 2020 14:11 - 50 minutes - 68.9 MBVideo version at: https://youtu.be/lbG5_LF4teg It's the premiere of Old Bull's new weekly show "The Map Room" with Eric Cunningham (editor-in-chief at www.elections-daily.com), Jared Stone and Nick Morris. Well known for their political cartography in the world of #electiontwitter, these three use wield their mapping powers to visualize and communicate their often surprising election forecasts and analyses. If predicting politics is part of what you do for fun and/or profit, you're in the...
Rachel Bitecofer Explains WTF Happened in CA-25
May 14, 2020 19:35 - 30 minutes - 41.3 MBVideo version at https://youtu.be/Kf8T2YHdijE Niskanen Center senior fellow Rachel Bitecofer returns to break down the surprising result in the special election for Katie Hill's vacant seat in California's 25th District. Follow Dr. Bitecofer at: https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/rachel-bitecofer/ Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv. Email us at [email protected]. Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com) ...
Panning for Gold in the PredictIt Backwaters
May 06, 2020 00:30 - 7 minutes - 9.72 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/4w0gtolhq2U Today, we’re delving into the bowels of the popular prediction market PredictIt, to hunt for bargains far away from glitzy front page markets like the Democratic nomination and Trump tweets. Where liquidity is limited and trade volumes are low, sometimes you find intriguingly mispriced contracts. That’s our mandate today. We’re highlighting three unloved and overlooked markets that might offer outsized gains to a discerning trader like you. Follow us...
Rachel Bitecofer Spoils the 2020 Congressional Elections
April 28, 2020 19:21 - 42 minutes - 58.5 MBVideo at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUcDa-TJXwA Hot on the heels of her highly acclaimed keynote at the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow Rachel Bitecofer returns to Old Bull to guide us through her newly unveiled 2020 House and Senate election forecast. Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv. Email us at [email protected]. Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com) License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/li...
The Whiz Kids of Political Cartography (Conference Hour 5)
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 48 minutes - 45.3 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/zIaiMBCvuBI In the final hour of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV: A panel of leading election mappers offer an inside look at their approach to political data visualization and their forecasts for the 2020 cycle. Plus, a surprise appearance by Cook Political Report's House Editor David Wasserman. Flip Pidot concludes the conference with some closing remarks. Panel: Eric Cunningham (elections-dai...
Pro Political Traders Share Their Secrets (Conference Hour 4)
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 58 minutes - 54.3 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/-UHnzXFHmzQ In this session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV: Jeff Joseph, host of The Political Trade podcast and editor of Luckbox Magazine, moderates a panel of professional PredictIt traders. The panelists discuss how they make a living forecasting not only political events but how the market will react (or overreact) to them. They reveal some of their current favorite trades and describe ho...
Predicting Across the Pond (Conference Hour 3)
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 47 minutes - 44 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/rkLvh7IeeUg In this session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV: Patrick Young moderates a panel of European prediction market executives, to discuss how cross-border cultural and regulatory differences can help or hinder a market's liquidity, forecast accuracy and general usefulness. Panel: Patrick Young, moderator (patricklyoung.net) Matthew Shaddick (ladbrokes.com) Sarbjit Bakhshi (smarkets.com/...
Black Boxes and Black Swans (Conference Hour 2)
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 36 minutes - 34.1 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/EjnUT5ByR7A In this session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV: A one-on-one discussion between host Flip Pidot and Rachel Bitecofer, Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center (www.niskanencenter.org), with a disrupter's guide to better election forecasting. Dr. Bitecofer explains why the prevailing theories of electoral modeling have got it all wrong and how her focus on hyper-polarization and turnout...
Models vs. Markets (Conference Hour 1)
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 44 minutes - 41.3 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/vDYkGODIYzI In the first session of the 2020 Political Prediction Conference, from American Civics Exchange (amciv.com) and OldBull.TV: A one-on-one discussion between host Flip Pidot and Harry Crane (harrycrane.com), Associate Professor of Statistics and Co-Graduate Director at Rutgers University, who presents his Fundamental Principle of Probability and why "freerolling" journalistic election forecasters fail to live up to it. Dr. Crane crunches the numbers to ...
2020 Political Prediction Conference (Opening Remarks)
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 7 minutes - 10.8 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/26H4EdLqX9g Flip Pidot opens the conference. Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv. Email us at [email protected]. All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.
Quarantine Roundtable III
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 49 minutes - 67.8 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/Faxu0CGy26g For this installment, we’ve assembled an elite squad of international futurists and decision scientists and we’re asking them to gaze into the post-coronavirus future to tell us what life might look like on the other side. Your panel: Flip Pidot, host (twitter.com/flippidot) Pavel Atanasov (twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov) Jordi Serra del Pino (twitter.com/jserradelp) Brett Specter (twitter.com/brettabroad) Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv. Email us at o...
Quarantine Roundtable II
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 31 minutes - 29.1 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/4_XZMC4Cafw It's our second installment of Quarantine Roundtable, helping you trade your way through the apocalypse on the political prediction markets. Jason Pipkin (@jipkin) and Derek Phillips (@DmpFromPI) are back with their picks on the rapidly changing electoral map, the dismal economic data, and whether (and when) the Democrats might actually hold a convention. Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv. Email us at [email protected]. Music from https://filmmusic....
Quarantine Roundtable: Trading the Apocalypse
April 28, 2020 13:10 - 47 minutes - 43.9 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/tDkWZVKOcJY For this very special edition, we’ve convinced 5 of the finest prediction market pros to join us live from their coronavirus bunkers to share their End Time trading strategies. The @PredictIt glitterati at our virtual roundtable are Jason Pipkin (@jipkin), Derek Phillips (@DmpFromPI), Keendawg from StarSpangledGamblers.com (@keendawgSSG), Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) and Zoltar (@truthBomber_). They're here to help you forecast what life will look li...
Can Prediction Markets Fight Coronavirus?
April 28, 2020 13:09 - 15 minutes - 14.4 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/R3yJnm3WbrE COVID-19 is wreaking havoc not just on its hundreds of thousands of biological victims, but on the very viability of the global health care infrastructure, financial markets, and the daily routines of billions of people. Can prediction markets help humanity even the score? Could they help policymakers and the general public anticipate and respond more quickly and effectively to unfolding emergencies like the coronavirus pandemic? Yes. But should they...
How Are Prediction Markets Different From Gambling?
April 28, 2020 13:09 - 6 minutes - 5.58 MBVideo at https://youtu.be/hf6s2vZ2GMg Today, we answer an insightful question from a viewer. Follow us at twitter.com/oldbulltv. Email us at [email protected]. Music from https://filmmusic.io "Funkorama" by Kevin MacLeod (https://incompetech.com) License: CC BY (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are fo