Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Noisy Data and New Variants

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moodys Analytics, to breakdown the November U.S. employment report. They find plenty of reasons for optimism even though job growth fell short of expectations. They also touch on the latest variant, Omicron, and how it may impact the economy. Full episode transcript here.

Once and Future Inflation

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss inflation throughout the history of the United States and whether we're in the midst of an era. Full episode transcript here.

Confidence, Consumers, and Cowbells

Diane Swonk, Chief Economist of Grant Thornton, joins Mark, Cris, and Ryan to discuss the current state of the American consumer. They focus on what factors are driving the holiday sales, excess savings, and an outlook on inflation and it's effects on consumers. Full episode transcript can be found here. Recommended Read The Passionate Economist: Finding the Power and Humanity Behind the Numbers, by Diane Swonk, purchase a copy here.

Coffee, COP26, and Climate Change

Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody's Climate Solutions, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the global economic impact of climate change, the potential effects of a carbon tax on the economy, and the climate risk policies in President Biden's Build Back Better plan. Full episode transcript here.

Workers, Wages, and Wallyball

Mark, Ryan, and Cris dissect the October U.S. employment report and what it says about the state of the economy, wage growth, and inflation. We knew there were Hunger Games and Squid Games. Now add the Zandi Games. Full episode transcript here.

Probability of Recession and Puppies for Everyone

Kevin Hassett, Vice President and Managing Director of the Lindsey Group and former Chair of the Council of Economics under President Trump, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the risk of a recession, inflation, and tax proposals in President Biden's Build Back Better legislation.  Full episode transcript.

Beige Book and Betting on Oil Prices

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome Gaurav Ganguly, a Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics and Chris Lafakis, a Director of Economic Research. They discuss global energy markets, the effect on the economy and where energy prices are headed. Full episode transcript found here. 

Confidence and Competitive Markets

Joe Kennedy, senior principal economist at MITRE, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the different schools of thought on anti-trust and market competition. They also discuss Big Tech and Big Pharma.  View episode transcript here. Recommended Reads Ending Poverty: Changing Behavior, Guaranteeing Income, and Transforming Government, by Joseph Kennedy, https://www.amazon.com/Ending-Poverty-Guaranteeing-Transforming-Government/dp/074255872X.

The Clock is Ticking on U.S. Budget Deal and Fed Tapering

The U.S. bond market is showing angst about the debt ceiling. While the debt ceiling will likely be raised, there is a history of waiting until the last minute. Ryan Sweet provides actionable insights to help you better manage your credit portfolio during this uncertain time. Episode's slides can be found here.

Bonus Episode: The Clock is Ticking on U.S. Budget Deal and Fed Tapering

The U.S. bond market is showing angst about the debt ceiling. While the debt ceiling will likely be raised, there is a history of waiting until the last minute. Ryan Sweet provides actionable insights to help you better manage your credit portfolio during this uncertain time. Episode's slides can be found here.

Women and Work

Betsey Stevenson, Professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan's Ford School, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to dissect the September employment report, the future of working from home, and Biden's economic agenda. Also, Mark has a podcast, a YouTube channel, and now a Twitter handle. Follow @markzandi. View full episode transcript here.

Bonus Episode: On the Road to Recovery

The Delta-variant of COVID-19 has damaged the economic recovery, but we remain optimistic the economy is on track to return to full employment by spring 2023. What could derail this optimism? Could the economy perform better than anticipated? What is the long-term economic fallout of the pandemic? The episode's slides can be found here.

On the Road to Recovery

The Delta-variant of COVID-19 has damaged the economic recovery, but we remain optimistic the economy is on track to return to full employment by spring 2023. What could derail this optimism? Could the economy perform better than anticipated? What is the long-term economic fallout of the pandemic? The episode's slides can be found here.

LNG and Long Tail (It's a Groundhog, not a Chipmunk)

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss unemployment insurance benefits, Delta variant, and what happened this week in Washington, DC. The main topic is the long-term economic consequences of the pandemic. Also, Mark reveals his favorite movie. Full episode transcript can be found here.

Debt and Debt Limits

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Bernard Yaros, an economist from Moody's Analytics to discuss fiscal policy, the odds of a government shutdown, and the debt limit. Full episode transcript can be found here.

Shortages and Supply Chains

Tim Uy, Todd Metcalfe, and Jesse Rogers, all economists at Moody's Analytics, join Mark and Ryan to discuss global supply chains and commodity shortages. The focus is on issuances around semiconductors, lumber, and copper. Full transcript can be viewed here. 

Digital Currency and Delta

Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow in economic studies at Brookings Institute, joins Mark, Cris, and Ryan to discuss the current state and future of crypto currencies. Recommended Reads: Natural Disasters From Coast to Coast

Hospitality Jobs and Hurricanes

Mark and Ryan welcome back Adam Kamins, Director of Regional Economics at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the August job numbers, the Delta variant, and economic costs of Hurricane Ida. Full episode transcript can be found here.

Tapering and Taxes

Bill Gale, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institute, joins Mark and Ryan to discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and the big topic was fiscal policy.

Delta and Debt

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Marisa Di Natale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics to discuss the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy. The big topic is the health of the American household balance sheet. Full episode transcript can be found here: https://about.moodys.io/podcast-episodes/delta-and-debt

China Angst and Container Cost

Daniel Rosen, founder of Rhodium Group, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss all things China. Full episode transcript can be found here. Recommended Reads  Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, by Ezra F. Vogel,  https://www.amazon.com/Deng-Xiaoping-Transformation-China-Vogel/dp/0674725867. Japan and China, Facing History, by Ezra F. Vogel,  https://www.amazon.com/s?k=china+and+japan+facing+history&i=stripbooks&crid=BEU5K0MDV8FW&sprefix=china+and+japan%2Cstripbooks%2C178&ref=nb...

Jobs Jobs Jobs

Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back their first repeat appearance guest - Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moodys Analytics. They breakdown the numbers in the July Employment Report and discuss the labor force and productivity in great detail. They also touch on the Delta Variant and its impact on the economy. Slides talked about in today's episode can be found here. Full episode transcript.

ECI and ECB

Kamil Kovar, Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Cris and Ryan to discuss U.S. and euro zone GDP along with wages. They also discuss Mark's cancelled flight and the big topic was monetary policy in the U.S. and euro zone. 

Flipped Signs and Forecast Philosophy

Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris and they recall their own favorite and least favorite forecast of all-time. They also discuss different approaches to forecasting, the meaning of being accurate, and who is a hedgehog or fox.

China and Cris Votes No

Dan White, Director of Public Sector Research at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to debate the economic impact of the bipartisan infrastructure deal and other proposed government spending.  A full transcript of the episode can be found here. 

Confidence and Consumer Spending Momentum

Wayne Best, Chief Economist of Visa, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the labor market, housing, and Visa's spending momentum index. 

Fear Gauge and Frothy Markets

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss what they are watching to gauge the health of the economy and the big topic was froth in asset markets.   

Monetary Policy and Multiple Models

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the latest indicators, follow up on one of their first podcast topics - inflation, and discuss their individual models.

Consumer Prices and Cars

Mike Brisson, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics joins Mark Zandi  and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the latest CPI report, labor market, homebuyer perceptions, and the vehicle market.

Jobs and More Jobs

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi to discuss the May U.S. employment report and the state of the labor market.

Housing and Happy Birthday

Jim Parrott at Urban Institute, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market and the supply issues its facing. We also discuss this week's key economic data. 

Diffusion Indices and Deficits

In this episode of Inside Economics, our weekly podcast, Bernard Yaros, Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss fiscal policy, debt and deficits. We also discuss this weeks data, including inflation, lumber prices, tax refunds and the CNN/Moody's Analytics back-to-normal index.

CPI and Census

Adam Kamins, Director of Regional Economics at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the recent inflation data and 2020 Census.

Work and Work from Anywhere

Adam Ozimek Chief Economist at Upwork, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the recent job numbers and productivity. 

Lumber and Labor Force

The economy is booming, should President Biden get the credit? ...and what about his newly unveiled American Families plan? Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss.    

Rates and Reflation

Mark Zandi and team discuss interest rates, 10-year treasury yield, inflation, monetary policy, and when we can expect to get back to full employment.

Inflection Points and Inflation

In this episode, we discuss U.S. retail sales and consumer and business confidence. The big topic is inflation, where we debate the drivers and outlook for U.S. inflation over the next several years. We also reveal our favorite leading inflation indicator, including olive oil.

Back to Normal and Build Back Better

Mark Zandi and team discuss the trade deficit, jobless claims, the Back to Normal Index, President Biden's infrastructure plan and more.

A Booming Economy and Bubbles

Mark Zandi and team discuss the recent jobs report, bubbles and other aspects of the economy.

Inside Economics Trailer - Mark Zandi