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Lecture I (2022-10-27): Statistical Reflections [Halloween Themed]
IEE 475: Simulating Stochastic Systems
English - October 28, 2022 17:52Courses Education simulation stochastic des dess discrete event system industrial engineering modeling Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
In this lecture, we review statistical fundamentals – such as the origins of the t-test, the meaning of type-I and type-II error (and alternative terminology for both, such as false positive rate and false negative rate) and the connection to statistical power (sensitivity). We review the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and give a qualitative description of where it gets its shape in a hypothesis test. We close with a validation example (from the previous lecture) where we use a power analysis on a one-sample t-test to help justify whether we have gathered enough data to trust that a simulation model is a good match for reality when it has a similar mean output performance to the real system.